LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

sverik25

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TCP counting for Grey is now at 12.78% and Ramsey (Lib) now has an 895 vote (3.56%) lead over Broadfoot (NXT). So it definitely can't be marked down as a Xenophon gain, yet anyway.
 

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Benny78

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He's actually right - the Rudd/Gillard government has a lasting legacy in the NBN (or at least the shell of it), in centrist workplace relations reform, and in the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

The Howard legacy is the GST, a drastic lowering of political discourse in Australia (I don't know if you're old enough to remember Keating, but what a slippery slope the Howard years took us down), and pissing away the proceeds of the mining boom with tax cuts that were unsustainable and that would eventually lead us into debt when we had to pay for the infrastructure that we needed.
Don't forget gun reform. That's what Johnny tells himself these days to sleep at night.
 

Forward Press

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TCP counting for Grey is now at 12.78% and Ramsey (Lib) now has an 895 vote (3.56%) lead over Broadfoot (NXT). So it definitely can't be marked down as a Xenophon gain, yet anyway.
Interesting to note the Greens are a virtual non-entity in Grey - only 2.5% primary vote. Also a Family First candidate there that could help decide things. Wonder how many ALP preferences are going to NXT - maybe I'm reading it wrong, but on the ABC site Labor has 22.1% and NXT 28.4% for their primary votes, doesn't that mean virtually all have to go to the NXT candidate for her to stand a chance?
 

sverik25

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Interesting to note the Greens are a virtual non-entity in Grey - only 2.5% primary vote. Also a Family First candidate there that could help decide things. Wonder how many ALP preferences are going to NXT - maybe I'm reading it wrong, but on the ABC site Labor has 22.1% and NXT 28.4% for their primary votes, doesn't that mean virtually all have to go to the NXT candidate for her to stand a chance?
Certainly seems that way. I know Antony Green thought that the preference flow from the ALP would be 70-30 to the NXT, but it seems to be a bit stronger than that. Maybe more like 80-20.

As I write though the count has been updated again (14.44%) with the Liberal margin increasing to over 1,000 votes.

From what I can gather though, Whyalla was heavily targeted by the NXT because of the loss of industrial jobs there, and we don't have a preference count for those booths yet.
 

Forward Press

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Certainly seems that way. I know Antony Green thought that the preference flow from the ALP would be 70-30 to the NXT, but it seems to be a bit stronger than that. Maybe more like 80-20.

As I write though the count has been updated again (14.44%) with the Liberal margin increasing to over 1,000 votes.

From what I can gather though, Whyalla was heavily targeted by the NXT because of the loss of industrial jobs there, and we don't have a preference count for those booths yet.
A 1000 vote margin is a big one, though. Think Libs will hold on here, shame because NXT with party recognition and funding would be a real force to be reckoned with and less likely to be a one-election-wonder.
 

Belnakor

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Of note, one of the guys i went to uni with in Matt Keogh won the seat of Burt in WA. Great news for him. Weren't best mates or anything while at uni, but always seemed like a decent guy, if somewhat opinionated (though who isn't at uni). I'm sure he'll do a great job.
fat matt they used to call him. Though he has slimmed down now. Kind of surprised he managed to get through the party machine.
 

Happy Mastenator

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fat matt they used to call him. Though he has slimmed down now. Kind of surprised he managed to get through the party machine.
i moved to Sydney after uni so lost track of what he was doing, but reading up on him looks like he worked hard at helping others, rather than going full Union. Good on him. He's been with his wife, who looks pregnant since uni days as well.
 

Belnakor

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What's the current seat count? The ABC and the AEC sites both have different counts.
the AEC counts are crap - noone can work out where they are getting their predictions from. They have a methodology but they aren't following it.

Green explains it here: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/07/whats-going-on-with-house-seat-numbers.html

reading crikey people seemed to think some point Green was biased towards liberals lol.

Liberals should be on 73 now that Grey has essentially been called for the Liberals. That means they just need to retain their lead in the current close seats and they should get to 76.
 
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Sydney Bloods

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What's the current seat count? The ABC and the AEC sites both have different counts.
there both projections, AEC projections are based on raw data, the ABC factors in overall swing required to move the seat.
not a single seat has actually been declared, as a result, the swings against the liberals favours labour in the AEC results so far.

where as the ABC is tracking whether that swing will be enough when the full count is done, as a result the ABC results favour the liberals a bit better and more likely show an accurate outcome.
 

Biggy_Boy

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Gough

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With all of the conservatives sharpening their knives, I find it difficult to see how the PM can offer guarantees on Medicare.
 

Belnakor

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Is a minority coalition government considered 'a hung parliament'?

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if either side doesn't make 76 you can call it a hung parliament since they cannot form government immediately. Though a minority coalition government is probably only likely to be formed as 75 + Katter which wouldn't take very long to happen i wouldn't imagine.
 

Lebbo73

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Think you've mucked your count up a bit. Labor are ahead in 5 of the 9 seats in doubt. The Liberals would need to win 7 of them.
I heard something before that said the Libs will win the remaining seats in doubt if the prepoll postal votes track like in 2013. I don't believe it but that was what I heard.
 

Belnakor

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Badesumofu

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If Labor win Capricornia, Cowan, and Herbert which are all very likely, they get 70 seats and limit the Coalition to 75. Labor is about 1000 ahead in all 3 of those.

Forde and Hindmarsh are going to be very close. I'm thinking Labor get between 70 and 72. That leaves the Coalition on 73 - 75.

Having said that, Labor are within a few hundred votes in Gilmore, Chisolm, and Dunkley. If the remaining votes break Labor's way, it's not totally inconceivable that Labor get 75 seats. If I was Shorten with 75 I would immediately seek to test my support on the floor of the house. Bandt would effectively support them without any deal needing to be in place based on his and his leader's statements during the campaign. I'd be shocked if Wilkie opposed them forming a government under those circumstances either.
 
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