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Badesumofu

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Donakebab

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Belnakor

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I'm going based on the ABC count and Anthony Green. Although even what you just linked is only projecting 75 seats for Coalition.

ABC just called Petrie for the Coalition. So it's 70 - 67 on called seats now.
thats from poll bludger he is pretty good. Forde is going to be awfully close on projections which would be the 76th seat. There is also Katter obviously.
 

Badesumofu

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They won't get within a bulls roar in Dunkley. If Shorten can get to 75 then he should definately be able to govern. But won't happen.
I wouldn't think so, Dunkley very likely to go LNP. But the graphic you've linked very dubiously gives Flynn to the LNP on projection. I also think it is extremely optimistic about the LNP's chances in Capricornia.
 
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Interesting to hear Xenophon's comments today on recognising the great difficulty the coalition is going to have in passing bills through the senate and that it's something he's acknowledged. IIRC, to paraphrase his response to a question regarding who he would support if neither major party reaches 76 votes, he said that the greater number of seats isn't necessarily the most important issue in how he'll decide where his party's support will lie in the HOR.

The senate is very much in Labor's favour, and anybody siding with the Coalition expecting something in return should be wary.

If the Coalition only reaches 73 seats, it's entirely plausible that Shorten may become PM with the support of NXT, Bandt, and Wilkie.

But even accepting the idea that the coalition are inevitably going to govern for another term, with the support of Katter, they still need to appoint a speaker and maintain control of the House with a tiny majority - especially given the split in conservative and progressive Libs on particular issues.

No matter how you look at it, Turnbull is in deep shit.
 

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I have a lot of respect for Antony Green and everything he's done over the years, but his preference forecasting at the last couple of elections has been decidedly dodgy.

I think he needs to revisit some of the underlying assumptions behind that aspect of his methodology.
 

nut

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Looks like the result is labors fault again...
I'm starting to feel so sorry for the Libs...
labors fault... Labors fault
 

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At the moment (roughly 8PM eastern), the ABC have declared the following:

LNP - 70 seats
ALP - 67 seats
Undetermined - 8 seats
Total - 150 seats
Required for majority - 76 seats


Similarly, ABC has predicted that of the above 8 seats that are too close to call, the following ditribution will likely occur:

LNP - 4 seats
ALP - 5 seats

Which in total, after the assumption that the ABC's prediction is correct, we've got:

LNP - 74 seats
ALP - 72 seats


Anything is possible, but if we assume that the above will be the result, then neither party has enough for a majority in the lower house.

Further assumptions would have Bandt and Wilkie siding with the ALP, having Labor 74 seats. Katter will most likely side with the coalition, giving them 75 seats.

Then you've got McGowan (IND) and Sharkie (NXT) holding the balance of power, and we've got no idea who'd they support. If McGowan sticks to her word, she'll support neither, giving Sharkie the opportunity to support the coalition and form government on an absolute minority, or support the ALP and hope that a vote of confidence/no confidence in the house gives ol' Bill the Prime Ministership.

Very interesting times ahead if that's the case.
 

Demosthenes

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Preference flows have diverged a lot from traditional norms over the last few years, I feel like his projections still give too much weight to historical data. In the most recent NSW and Qld elections it sort of bit him in the arse, as a result he's become a lot more cautious with his predictions.

I'm no professional psephologist, but I've been a bit disappointed by how slow he's been to adapt to the changing political landscape. You could say that elections are simply harder to predict these days, I suppose. I kind of feel like that's a cop-out though.
 

Gavin Excell

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Preference flows have diverged a lot from traditional norms over the last few years, I feel like his projections still give too much weight to historical data. In the most recent NSW and Qld elections it sort of bit him in the arse, as a result he's become a lot more cautious with his predictions.

I'm no professional psephologist, but I've been a bit disappointed by how slow he's been to adapt to the changing political landscape. You could say that elections are simply harder to predict these days, I suppose. I kind of feel like that's a cop-out though.
Interesting thoughts.
 

Tents

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At the moment (roughly 8PM eastern), the ABC have declared the following:

LNP - 70 seats
ALP - 67 seats
Undetermined - 8 seats
Total - 150 seats
Required for majority - 76 seats


Similarly, ABC has predicted that of the above 8 seats that are too close to call, the following ditribution will likely occur:

LNP - 4 seats
ALP - 5 seats

Which in total, after the assumption that the ABC's prediction is correct, we've got:

LNP - 74 seats
ALP - 72 seats
The ABC have turned their predictions off even though the website still uses the word predict.
 

funk44

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I have a lot of respect for Antony Green and everything he's done over the years, but his preference forecasting at the last couple of elections has been decidedly dodgy.

I think he needs to revisit some of the underlying assumptions behind that aspect of his methodology.
I agree. His algorithms, especially this year have been way off as they were waaay too trigger happy to call individual seats for either party, especially the libs.
He needs to revisit calculating in preference flows from the previous election given how volatile Australian politics is of late and just wait til he has actual preference flows from the AEC

Edit: Just read your follow up post. Glad to see we agree
 

Sydney Bloods

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The ABC have turned their predictions off even though the website still uses the word predict.
they haven't, the seats they've called do not reflect the raw count, hence the discrepancy.
for example they have given the liberals 70 seats so far, yet the current raw count only has the liberals leading in 67 seats.

the ABC is mostly likely accurate in their prediction, but its still a prediction.
 

Gavin Excell

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I agree. His algorithms, especially this year have been way off as they were waaay too trigger happy to call individual seats for either party, especially the libs.
He needs to revisit calculating in preference flows from the previous election given how volatile Australian politics is of late and just wait til he has actual preference flows from the AEC
You should revisit your avatar choice
 
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By my count, there were three seats called at some point in the night, which have ended up going the other way. Far too generous.

Similarly, ABC has predicted that of the above 8 seats that are too close to call, the following ditribution will likely occur:

LNP - 3 seats
ALP - 5 seats

Which in total, after the assumption that the ABC's prediction is correct, we've got:

LNP - 73 seats
ALP - 72 seats
Typo highlighted
 
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To be fair to Green, it's not like he doesn't know this. It's not exactly rare for the computer to give away a seat on the night and for him to respond by saying something like 'I'd wait a bit longer on that one, even though the computer is giving it away'. Remember, he is just as much providing entertainment as he is providing a service, at least on the night of the election. He can't afford to have it all taking hours of the forecast before he's willing to give any results.
 

Tents

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they haven't, the seats they've called do not reflect the raw count, hence the discrepancy.
for example they have given the liberals 70 seats so far, yet the current raw count only has the liberals leading in 67 seats.

the ABC is mostly likely accurate in their prediction, but its still a prediction.
The ABC predictions I'm looking are an exact match for the figures on the AEC tally room website, so the ones I'm looking at are not predictions at all.
 

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I have a lot of respect for Antony Green and everything he's done over the years, but his preference forecasting at the last couple of elections has been decidedly dodgy.

I think he needs to revisit some of the underlying assumptions behind that aspect of his methodology.
There is a God I tell ya
 
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