LIVE Federal Election Coverage 2016

Badesumofu

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No way Xenophon would go for that. It only happens if she breaks ranks with him.

I can't see any particularly likely way that the LNP get to 76. They'd have to win on of the three seats where Labor are up by 1000 votes or.

William Bowe is sound, but he acknowledged that his model that gives LNP Flynn is probably giving the wrong result for Flynn. He included Flynn in his projection that got them 75 seats.

74 seats would make it really hard to govern. You'd be constantly at the mercy of the crossbench. The LNP would really struggle with this Senate as well.
 

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Badesumofu

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You could add Greens and Wilkie to ALP to get 74 they then need 1 more
LNP get first crack at forming a government because they are the current government. First they'd need to win a vote to get their chosen Speaker elected. Then they would need to survive a possible no confidence motion.
 

Sydney Bloods

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If LNP finish 73 and ALP finish 72 do LNP get in or is it who can sway the minor parties to side with them.
Is ALP still a chance to anyone who knows politics well enough?
hard to say, my gut says no. But in that situation the only thing that matters is the pork.
 
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Allan Shorty

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We are looking at the same figures.

The reason the ABC seat count doesn't match the AEC seat count is that the ABC has figures for 4 seats that the AEC is categorising as 'not yet determined'. I don't know why the discrepancy on these 4 seats.

Three of these 'not yet determined' seats will go to L/NP and one to the ALP. The AEC not including these is the difference in the two counts.

- ABC has L/NP 70, plus ahead in 3 in doubt (so overall ahead in 73) with ALP 67 plus ahead in 5 in doubt (so overall ahead in 72).
- AEC has L/NP ahead in 70, ALP ahead in 71 - but add in the 4 not yet determined and the totals are the same (L/NP ahead in 73, ALP ahead in 72).
Antony green explains the discrepancy on his blog.
 

Donakebab

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Hm, no experience and I reckon Nick X will want his member very visible in debates, not as Speaker.

Katter would be interesting, especially if he uses his guns and whip.
Katter would love the power but it would keep him chained down in Canberra, so he'd be torn. Regardless he would be a nightmare for both parties, can just picture the carnage of how often people would get thrown out. As soon as a minority government became a possibility I thought McGowan would have been ideal for the NLP, however she's already rejected the notion of it. It really is hard to see who the best functioning option would be.
 

Forward Press

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Katter would love the power but it would keep him chained down in Canberra, so he'd be torn. Regardless he would be a nightmare for both parties, can just picture the carnage of how often people would get thrown out. As soon as a minority government became a possibility I thought McGowan would have been ideal for the NLP, however she's already rejected the notion of it. It really is hard to see who the best functioning option would be.
Michael Danby? If Turnbull forms government he seems like an ALP member that could be convinced to defect, like the reverse Peter Slipper.
 

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Demonic Ascent

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Nick Xenophon was a Young Liberal. Do we need further explanation?
We all do crazy things in our youth...

I assume if it came down to it Xenophon would side with the LNP? Don't really know much about his broader politics only on some individual issues.
 

Donakebab

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Michael Danby? If Turnbull forms government he seems like an ALP member that could be convinced to defect, like the reverse Peter Slipper.
Rusted on Labor member for over 30 years and passionate supporter of the arts, not sure he'd sacrifice his ideals for the role in what will be such a toxic parliament. Would likely be career suicide, couldn't see him holding Melbourne Ports if he jumped ship. The role of Speaker is a bit of a poison chalice of late, personally I'd be staying away.
 

nobbyiscool

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We all do crazy things in our youth...

I assume if it came down to it Xenophon would side with the LNP? Don't really know much about his broader politics only on some individual issues.
I think they probably lose credibility as a centrist, pragmatic party if they support a Coalition that is tearing itself apart. How could they themselves talk about this notion of "stability"?

I'm only guessing what NXT will do like everyone else though, they haven't really given us an indication one way or the other.

It's worth noting though that Windsor and Oakeshott both originally entered politics as Nationals, so history doesn't necessarily mean a lot.
 

Demonic Ascent

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Don't understand why anyone would watch 7 or 9 during elections.
It's always amusing watching the losers (or in this case potential winners) start going at each other no holds barred as the night wears on. Hours of unscripted TV with type A personalities everywhere, you never whats gonna pop out of someone's mouth. Great viewing

In summary ABC for info, 7/9/Sky for schadenfreude.
 

Demonic Ascent

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I think they probably lose credibility as a centrist, pragmatic party if they support a Coalition that is tearing itself apart. How could they themselves talk about this notion of "stability"?

I'm only guessing what NXT will do like everyone else though, they haven't really given us an indication one way or the other.

It's worth noting though that Windsor and Oakeshott both originally entered politics as Nationals, so history doesn't necessarily mean a lot.
But ideologically he's closers to LNP than ALP? Just trying to figure out where he falls on the spectrum.
 

nobbyiscool

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But ideologically he's closers to LNP than ALP? Just trying to figure out where he falls on the spectrum.
I guess that's the difficulty - economically, he's probably conservative, but socially he's probably closer to the ALP.

On top of that, he's trying to frame himself as the sensible alternative that isn't beholden to either ideology.
 

Footy Smarts

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I'd be betting strongly on an early election. I just can't see how a stable government can be formed. Gillard only got the thinnest majority but she at least had rock solid support in the party room (bar a small clique of Ruddites) and the cross-benchers supporting her were pretty determined to make it work. Turnbull is hated in his party room and none of the crossbenchers will fear an election like Oakeshott and Windsor.
 

nobbyiscool

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I'd be betting strongly on an early election. I just can't see how a stable government can be formed. Gillard only got the thinnest majority but she at least had rock solid support in the party room (bar a small clique of Ruddites) and the cross-benchers supporting her were pretty determined to make it work. Turnbull is hated in his party room and none of the crossbenchers will fear an election like Oakeshott and Windsor.
I wouldn't even rule out another DD within 12 months. Such is the way the Senate is looking, even if LNP can form a Government, the only way they'll be able to pass legislation through the Senate is 1) with agreement from the ALP, 2) with agreement from the Greens, or 3) with agreement from NXT and probably 4-5 crazies (and Lambie in particular has form in telling Libs to **** off).

Even if the GG calls another election because no one can form Government, it's only a lower house election - the only way to get rid of the Senate is to form a government, get another DD trigger, and then go again.

When you consider the worst case scenario, it could be 12 months of treading water. While it's not likely, there remains a possibility that:
- neither side can form a Government, so we have another election in September, and
- after that election, the Senate is still such that no one can pass legislation, and we have a 3rd election - a 2nd DD - mid next year.

Again, this is not likely - but it's a pretty ugly worst case scenario.
 

Badesumofu

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Does it have to be more than a hand shake ?
It doesn't even have to be that. When one lot or the other try to form a government they need to first get a Speaker elected. Then they need to be able to survive a potential no confidence motion. The they need to be able to get supply bills through.

Wilkie, for example, has ruled out a deal to give either side ongoing confidence and supply. Labor have ruled out a deal with Bandt. That doesn't mean Labor couldn't govern with 74 members. It would mean that absent a deal, they could potentially be brought down by the LNP and 4 crossbenchers at any time.
 

telsor

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Wilke has ruled himself out after his last experience with Labor.
That makes things very tough then.

It's looking like LNP 73, ALP 72.

If Wilkie wont got ALP(and he sure as hell wouldn't go LNP), that leaves 4 available. That said, if push comes to shove, I think he'd blink and do a deal.

The Green/ALP deal last time broke up as well (although that was, in part, setting up for the next election), but for all the rhetoric before the election about them being separate, you can't really see the Greens going anywhere else. It'd also give the ALP cover to enact their 'ideologically sound, but politically unpalatable' policies (carbon tax, open borders).

Xenophon would be vital for either party, the 1 seat in the house is 'nice' and doubtless important, but the Senate seats would be massive...If the ALP signed him and the greens up, they'd probably come close to a majority in both houses. I think he's more likely to go ALP both because he's closer to them ideologically, so less of a issue to make a 'comfortable' deal.

Katter would tend LNP, but he left them due to some fairly substantial differences, so it's not the sure thing some seem to think. He's an experienced politician, so a deal could certainly be made either way.

McGowan would be the opposite of Katter in many ways...You'd tend to think she's go ALP, but probably has enough flexibility to be swayed for the right deal.


I think the ALP is more likely to patch together a government out of all this, although non existent deity help them trying to keep it all together. This is a bigger and noticably more disparate group than last time.

LNP have trouble with Turnbull having cracked the sads over the past few days, and his inability to listen to other opinions making him not nearly as good at 'let's make a deal', and that many of the deals required would probably have his own right wing walk out on him.
 

Maggie5

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That makes things very tough then.

It's looking like LNP 73, ALP 72.

If Wilkie wont got ALP(and he sure as hell wouldn't go LNP), that leaves 4 available. That said, if push comes to shove, I think he'd blink and do a deal.

The Green/ALP deal last time broke up as well (although that was, in part, setting up for the next election), but for all the rhetoric before the election about them being separate, you can't really see the Greens going anywhere else. It'd also give the ALP cover to enact their 'ideologically sound, but politically unpalatable' policies (carbon tax, open borders).

Xenophon would be vital for either party, the 1 seat in the house is 'nice' and doubtless important, but the Senate seats would be massive...If the ALP signed him and the greens up, they'd probably come close to a majority in both houses. I think he's more likely to go ALP both because he's closer to them ideologically, so less of a issue to make a 'comfortable' deal.

Katter would tend LNP, but he left them due to some fairly substantial differences, so it's not the sure thing some seem to think. He's an experienced politician, so a deal could certainly be made either way.

McGowan would be the opposite of Katter in many ways...You'd tend to think she's go ALP, but probably has enough flexibility to be swayed for the right deal.


I think the ALP is more likely to patch together a government out of all this, although non existent deity help them trying to keep it all together. This is a bigger and noticably more disparate group than last time.

LNP have trouble with Turnbull having cracked the sads over the past few days, and his inability to listen to other opinions making him not nearly as good at 'let's make a deal', and that many of the deals required would probably have his own right wing walk out on him.
Interesting situation coming up especially when you also have to have a speaker.
I tend to believe Wilkie as he sounded pretty firm.
Xenophon is another question and I really don't know.
Don't know that either party would be confident but one thing is for sure, no dodgy policies will get through.
 

Chameleon75

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Interesting situation coming up especially when you also have to have a speaker.
I tend to believe Wilkie as he sounded pretty firm.
Xenophon is another question and I really don't know.
Don't know that either party would be confident but one thing is for sure, no dodgy policies will get through.
With the exception of katter who has a solid personal brand, cross benchers are never safe. I think who is more likely to go a full term will figure highly in their decisions, last thing they would want is an early election to break a deadlock.
 

telsor

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Interesting situation coming up especially when you also have to have a speaker.
I tend to believe Wilkie as he sounded pretty firm.
Xenophon is another question and I really don't know.
Don't know that either party would be confident but one thing is for sure, no dodgy policies will get through.
I don't think the speaker is a major concern. It'll be 76-74, so take a speaker out and it's still a majority at 75-74.

I suspect there will be a lot of dodgy policies, it's just that most will either be to satisfy the minors or fairly blatant vote grabs to try and setup for next time. What there wont be is a lot of unpopular legislation enacted 'for the good of the country' (tough budgets for example).
 
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