Confirmed Live Trade 3: Carlton receive #19 and future 1st from Adelaide for their future 1st

1970crow

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Yep, all assumption on my part. Good pick up (Y)

I think McKay’s ceiling is higher than Curnow’s given his extra height and athleticism. Just a matter of getting there.
I’ve seen him do some outstanding things. I reckon he’ll end up being a very, very, very good player.
 

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Rich01

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Watch the game again. Gibbs was pretty epic getting Carlton going in that third quarter after the Blues got down by 30 points. From that time to when Carlton got back to within a point, he was involved in 3 of the 5 goals that brought his team back into it, intercepted at least 3 forward thrusts by the Tigers, got first hands on the ball at stoppages a number of times, either clearing it or nullifying it. He and later Judd, really got the ball rolling and a number of other players jumped on the gravy train.

Im not going to claim Gibbs would’ve been the difference, but geez he would’ve been handy for the Crows when the game was still up for grabs in the third quarter. He’s player who can turn it on, so you just never know.
One quarter (where he wasn’t even close to best on in that qtr) four years before the 2017 Grand Final where the result was 8 goals.

Geez what could have been eh?

Never change Carlton supporters.
 

1970crow

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Dow is anything but vanilla. Has great speed and power.

Mackay and Atkins are what I’d describe as vanilla - average players who are slightly soft and largely ineffectual.
Mackay is the worst player in the history of the AFL to play 200 games. Atkins can definitely play and has been influential for games but did have a couple of quiet patches last year and has an amazing ability to not even touch opponents who are well within tackling distance. I’m expecting a big year from him. Hopefully Mackay finishes his career on the same number of AFL games that he finished 2018 on. An embarrassment that he’s played so many games.
 
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I don't have a problem with Carlton potentially overrating Stocker, they won't be the first or the last club to overrate a draftee.

The issue for me is entirely the price they paid for him, if they had've traded say their 2019 2nd + 3rd round picks for Adelaide's 2018 pick 19, few of us would've batted an eyelid. At the end of the day giving up the future first pick of a team coming off a two-win season is remarkably reckless, particularly when half the reward is a player seventeen other clubs didn't rate especially highly and the value of the other half is predicated on factors beyond Carlton's control.
Cartlon didn't have their 2019 2nd. GWS did & they traded it to the Crows for a pick upgrade... so they could only get Stocker by using their 2019 1st rounder.
 

Monkey King

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Wont argue that he didnt have a good game but to suggest he was the reason why the blues won i think is stretching it, I was at the game and also watched it on replay and during both occasions i felt it was Judd that got the blues going and Betts / Waite were just amazing with their dominance in the foward line and Nick Duigan was another along with Robinson that stood out in my mind. But after so much insistence i decided to have a look and see what was reported


"CHRIS Judd has inspired Carlton to a thrilling comeback victory over Richmond in the first elimination final at the MCG on Sunday.

Carlton Goals : Waite 4, Duigan 4, Betts 3, Garlett 2, Robinson 2, Warnock, Scotland, Judd
Carlton Best: Judd, Murphy, Curnow, Duigan, Betts, Waite, Gibbs

After reading this article i feel vindicated that what i remember was correct in my opinion
http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2013/24/rich-v-carl
Gibbs was BOG in Carlton’s BnF for this match. You feel vindicated by an article that barely had him in the bests. Kind of a reverse vindication for me. Yes, Judd was immense, great flash and an obvious contributor; but for those paying closer attention, it was Gibbs who first got the Blues going. The Carlton coaches sure knew it. What a pity the MVP wasn’t around so we could have seen Hardwick’s recognition as well.

I don’t know what more to tell you other than go watch that third quarter again. I‘ve explained what Gibbs contributed during the period Carlton kicked 5 goals to come back from being 30pts down. Show me one other player that had the same impact as Gibbs in that 10 minute stretch; like literally tell me what they contributed. Judd didn’t. He had his first stunning take away from the bounce into F50 in this period, probably unnoticed by most, Gibbs was splayed out on the ground having won the hardball and handballed it to him. None of the players you mentioned had the same impact either. All of that came later, in the period of struggle after the initial 5 goals spurt that got Carlton back into the game.

Who knows what Gibbs could’ve done for the Crows. All I’m saying is he once played a finals match at the G’ against the Tigers where his team was thumped to half time and played a key role in turning the game around. As you’ve noted, there were a few players (having average games to that point) that jumped on the gravy train after that and belted out a win. Who knows if the Gibbs could’ve done the same on GF day, or if other Crows players would’ve jumped on the gravy train like the Blues ones did. That’s just one big stone forever left unturned.
 

Monkey King

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One quarter (where he wasn’t even close to best on in that qtr) four years before the 2017 Grand Final where the result was 8 goals.
Games don’t start at the final siren. At halftime it was game on, Tigers found a way to break away and the Crows didn’t. I’m sure if Carlton didn’t find a way to turn it around, it would‘ve been even more than an 8 goal shellacking.

Gibbs was BOG btw, so not just “one quarter”, but certainly a crucial 10 minutes there where he was his team’s biggest driver in bringing a 30pt deficit back to one point.

Who knows what could have happened if the Crows had a player doing likewise after halftime, or if Gibbs could’ve even been that player for them, or if subjugated Crows players would’ve responded the way the Carlton ones did. No one knows, so don’t pretend like you do.
 

Rich01

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Games don’t start at the final siren. At halftime it was game on, Tigers found a way to break away and the Crows didn’t. I’m sure if Carlton didn’t find a way to turn it around, it would‘ve been even more than an 8 goal shellacking.

Gibbs was BOG btw, so not just “one quarter”, but certainly a crucial 10 minutes there where he was his team’s biggest driver in bringing a 30pt deficit back to one point.

Who knows what could have happened if the Crows had a player doing likewise after halftime, or if Gibbs could’ve even been that player for them, or if subjugated Crows players would’ve responded the way the Carlton ones did. No one knows, so don’t pretend like you do.
Yeah heaps of ‘what ifs’ in the grand final eh? What if Cotchin and Ellis were suspended? What if McGovern and Brodie Smith had have played?

Putting a what if on a player who wasn’t even in their squad that year and basing their impact on the grand final where the difference was 8 goals on one quarter of a game played four years beforehand is a stretch, even for you. Understand the need for fantasy and projection for Carlton supporters though. What if they had have picked Oliver over Weitering giving them two cracking AA mids driving their team for the next ten years? It’s fanciful yeah?
Or just because you like to, do you just look back and wonder what if? Spose you just have to shrug and back the man you picked in to the hilt.
 

Monkey King

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Yeah heaps of ‘what ifs’ in the grand final eh? What if Cotchin and Ellis were suspended? What if McGovern and Brodie Smith had have played?
Absolutely, full of what ifs and only what ifs. Gibbs is one of them. In the tails of Gibbs’ actual playing record, he may have contributed not a single lick of difference; or he might have helped spark a Crows resurgence at some point.

Of course its all out there now, floating around somewhere with Schrödinger’s cat, so no one, including you, could possibly know which Gibbs would’ve shown up that day, or how his Crows teammates would’ve responded to it.
 

DangerSloane

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Wait we're really using 6 year old evidence of Gibbs having a decent quarter and extrapolating that out to saying that he would've made 8 goals difference in the grand final a number of years later.

Wow blues fans, this is a new low.
 

Rich01

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Absolutely, full of what ifs and only what ifs. Gibbs is one of them. In the tails of Gibbs’ actual playing record, he may have contributed not a single lick of difference; or he might have helped spark a Crows resurgence at some point.

Of course its all out there now, floating around somewhere with Schrödinger’s cat, so no one, including you, could possibly know which Gibbs would’ve shown up that day, or how his Crows teammates would’ve responded to it.
Yep, he could have injured himself in the lead up to the 2017 grand final too if they traded him in a year early. Lots of moot permutations for you to consider eh?
 

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Monkey King

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Yep, he could have injured himself in the lead up to the 2017 grand final too if they traded him in a year early. Lots of moot permutations for you to consider eh?
Right, like anyone thinks about all the things that wouldn’t have made a difference. Lol.

Nah mate, I’m a Blues supporter, so only interested in considering how this little scenario involving Carlton may have altered the other party’s outcome. And given the unique position Adelaide found themselves in that single season between not doing the trade and then doing the trade, it’s a perfectly reasonable what if to consider.

But I get it. As we all got told last year on BF, you guys are the best yada yada yada. God forbid the notion a single player, Bryce Gibbs no less, could possibly, at any level of probably, have taken your glory away.
 

DangerSloane

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Right, like anyone thinks about all the things that wouldn’t have made a difference. Lol.

Nah mate, I’m a Blues supporter, so only interested in considering how this little scenario involving Carlton may have altered the other party’s outcome. And given the unique position Adelaide found themselves in that single season between not doing the trade and then doing the trade, it’s a perfectly reasonable what if to consider.

But I get it. As we all got told last year on BF, you guys are the best yada yada yada. God forbid the notion a single player, Bryce Gibbs no less, could possibly, at any level of probably, have taken your glory away.
What if you'd kept Kennedy, Betts, Garlett, Waite, Gibbs, Robinson, Jacobs etc.
You might be playing finals instead of 2 win seasons.

now do you see how stupid your scenarios are ?
 

Rich01

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Right, like anyone thinks about all the things that wouldn’t have made a difference. Lol.

Nah mate, I’m a Blues supporter, so only interested in considering how this little scenario involving Carlton may have altered the other party’s outcome. And given the unique position Adelaide found themselves in that single season between not doing the trade and then doing the trade, it’s a perfectly reasonable what if to consider.

But I get it. As we all got told last year on BF, you guys are the best yada yada yada. God forbid the notion a single player, Bryce Gibbs no less, could possibly, at any level of probably, have taken your glory away.
I’m a big fan of what ifs mate.
But realistic ones, not make believe ones where you try to make an assumption based on a performance by a player in one quarter from 2013 and try to project that into a game four years later.

I get it though. When you don’t have that success you need to fantasise about the what ifs, and project forwards as best you can with optimism. Can empathise there for sure.

It’s the stance Carlton supporters need to take with the actual topic of this thread. They can’t think about the consequences of their trade for Stocker. Rather hope like hell he turns out to be the top 6 player in the latest draft that SOS believes he is.
 
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All Stocker needs to be is another part in the sum of the whole that comprises our future team. He doesn’t have the same expectations as our top draft picks, because he’s not one. The ‘top 6’ comments are nothing more than a big of internal boost for the club and Stocker himself.

If he’s not prepared for whatever scrutinity he’s going to face (and I sincerely doubt it’s as extensive as the catastrophic projections some are making) then he wouldn’t have been picked where he was.

All first-round draftees are under the microscope once they are drafted, and need a good temperament to weather this. From all indications our recruiting team believes Stocker has the determination and drive to succeed, and this would have been a big consideration in executing the trade, and one intangible as to why we had him further up our draft board than most.
 
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DangerSloane

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Scenarios similar to this re Carlton have actually been raised many times on BF. Why the sudden dismay?
No sudden dismay, its just as daft as your previous comments.

Gibbs has never made 8 goals difference in any game. How could you possibly think he would've changed the outcome of a grand final where we got belted in every position on the ground?
 

Rich01

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All Stocker needs to be is another part in the sum of the whole that comprises our future team. He doesn’t have the same expectations as our top draft picks, because he’s not one. The ‘top 6’ comments are nothing more than a big of internal boost for the club and Stocker himself.

If he’s not prepared for whatever scrutinity he’s going to face (and I sincerely doubt it’s as extensive as the catastrophic projections some are making) then he wouldn’t have been picked where he was.

All first-round draftees are under the microscope once they are drafted, and need a good temperament to weather this. From all indications our recruiting team believes Stocker has the determination and drive to succeed, and this would have been a big consideration in executing the trade, and one intangible as to why we had him further up our draft board than most.
Spot on.
But what live trading does is extrapolate the opportunity cost of a pick.

Stocker like it or not is the first cab off the ranks with this new rule.

Like it or not, he (and whoever is drafted with the 2019 first round Adelaide pick that Carlton currently own) will be compared to the picks available at the time he was drafted (RCD, Smith etc, not the top 6 picks) as well as the future pick that Carlton ponied up to get him.

Time will tell if it’s a good trade.
 
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Spot on.
But what live trading does is extrapolate the opportunity cost of a pick.

Stocker like it or not is the first cab off the ranks with this new rule.

Like it or not, he (and whoever is drafted with the 2019 first round Adelaide pick that Carlton currently own) will be compared to the picks available at the time he was drafted (RCD, Smith etc, not the top 6 picks) as well as the future pick that Carlton ponied up to get him.

Time will tell if it’s a good trade.
Bingo.

Adelaide fans will death-ride his career (along with next years first), as Carlton supporters will do with Adelaide’s (likely) early pick next year.

To some extent this is nothing new, but live trading certainly adds another dimension to tracking player performance.
 

Monkey King

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I’m a big fan of what ifs mate.
But realistic ones, not make believe ones where you try to make an assumption based on a performance by a player in one quarter from 2013 and try to project that into a game four years later.
I do make an assumption based on that performance; it’s information. It can be used along with every performance of Gibbs’ career, good and bad, as a relative frequency with which to distribute probability.

I really can’t be arsed getting into all this. I just chimed into say that Gibbs had a purple patch in that 3Q; more influential than an other player in getting Carlton to within a point. He dropped off a bit after that, but the team were up and about and others took over. Still great game overall too - game high disposals, contested possessions, goal assists, clearances (12 - next best was 7), third in tackles. BOG in Carlton’s BnF.
 

DangerSloane

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Bingo.

Adelaide fans will death-ride his career (along with next years first), as Carlton supporters will do with Adelaide’s (likely) early pick next year.

To some extent this is nothing new, but live trading certainly adds another dimension to tracking player performance.
I think the focus will be on the comparison.
Its not like we wanted Stocker, so we wont be death riding his career as such.

The death riding will certainly be on the guy that we pick with Carlton's pick.
 

Rich01

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I do make an assumption based on that performance; it’s information. It can be used along with every performance of Gibbs’ career, good and bad, as a relative frequency with which to distribute probability.

I really can’t be arsed getting into all this. I just chimed into say that Gibbs had a purple patch in that 3Q; more influential than an other player in getting Carlton to within a point. He dropped off a bit after that, but the team were up and about and others took over. Still great game overall too - game high disposals, contested possessions, goal assists, clearances (12 - next best was 7), third in tackles. BOG in Carlton’s BnF.
That’s fine to make assumptions, but for those that were at the ground that day, Judd was the one that turned the game. He was absolutely phenomenal. Was in awe even though it was my team he destroyed.

Might have looked a bit different on tv and then reflecting on stats. Guys like Murphy, Duigan and Gibbs were good supporting acts.
 

Monkey King

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That’s fine to make assumptions, but for those that were at the ground that day, Judd was the one that turned the game. He was absolutely phenomenal. Was in awe even though it was my team he destroyed.
I can not speak for you; perhaps you didn’t realise the turnaround was on while your team was still in front, perhaps your starting point for the turnaround is different to mine, but during the 5 goal spurt that got Carlton back to within a point, Judd didn’t really do much. It was Gibbs getting first hands on the ball, being involved in goals, intercepting Richmond’s attacks. Judd’s magic show to steal the game away came next. I don’t know what else to say.
 

Rich01

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I can not speak for you; perhaps you didn’t realise the turnaround was on while your team was still in front, perhaps your starting point for the turnaround is different to mine, but during the 5 goal spurt that got Carlton back to within a point, Judd didn’t really do much. It was Gibbs getting first hands on the ball, being involved in goals, intercepting Richmond’s attacks. Judd’s magic show to steal the game away came next. I don’t know what else to say.
No. I’m thinking if Judds 11 possession, third quarter. That’s when the game was won. He was phenomenal.

Seems history reports it the same way.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp...8/carlton-beat-richmond-afl-elimination-final

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...g/news-story/ad358ce28bb4a9f1992585ba24eedd5f

Richmond supporters have always known when an opposition comeback is on the cards, and this was no different. Judd was immense in the third.
 

Crow till I die

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I’m a big fan of what ifs mate.
But realistic ones, not make believe ones where you try to make an assumption based on a performance by a player in one quarter from 2013 and try to project that into a game four years later.

I get it though. When you don’t have that success you need to fantasise about the what ifs, and project forwards as best you can with optimism. Can empathise there for sure.

It’s the stance Carlton supporters need to take with the actual topic of this thread. They can’t think about the consequences of their trade for Stocker. Rather hope like hell he turns out to be the top 6 player in the latest draft that SOS believes he is.
Look on the day, maybe a fully fit mcleod and ricciuto at their best might have been able to turn the game..might as too many others were way down on the day. Gibbs in no way shape or form would have changed the momentum on his own
 
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