Strategy Live trading on draft night - Guess the first one?

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#77
The AFL world would love to see something like what you have put together, but I think Gold Coast are in a great position to demand so much more for what they have. I think locking them in with just the SA clubs could lighten the stranglehold they have on this draft. Just adding Stkilda into the fold could work out very well.

2, 3, 6, 24 & 29 is a fantastic position to be in heading into any draft, but a draft that has both South Australian clubs drooling at the prospect of one or two elite home grown talents entering their systems and still being able to select two elite talants themself, makes this a chance of a lifetime for The Suns.

First Gold Coast need to make it known they are going to take all three of the SA boys if Carlton take Walsh. In order for this to happen, they need to give up picks 6 and 24 to StKilda for pick 4.

Roll on draft day. Gold Coast have already made clear their intentions and will come out massive winners should they use those picks, so it is all on the two SA clubs to work something out.

Port swap Picks 5 & 15 for Pick 2 (keeping 10)
Crows give up Picks 8 & 16 for Pick 3 (keeping 13)
StKilda lose Picks 4 and walk away with Pick 6 & 24
Gold Coast cash in Picks 2, 3 & 24 and sit down with Picks 4, 5, 8, 15, 16 & 29. They build Twin Towers on the Gold Coast...

Draft Points are a moot, it's the price you need to pay for this kind of home grown talant and both SA clubs know it. Even with that said, it's not extreme overs in any sense!
Gold Coast will have some decent options with live trading. However if Jack Lukosius is as good as prospect as some draft watcher are saying, It would be hard for them to trade the pick that will land him. There was also an article not long back saying that’s hes comfortable with a potential move to the Coast.

The pick I’d be looking to offload would be pick 3, looking at auctioning off Rankine to Port (who mightn’t even appeal to GC through homesickness) Adelaide holding a strong draft hand and Stkilda potentially being interested at pick 4 may force Port to try and move. Think both sides could be seriously tempted by pick 3 & 29 for Pick 5 and 2019 future 1st.

Port Adelaide secures Rankine, while keeping picks 10 and 15 in a strong SA draft year, could still potentially pick up Hately or Valente. Even if those type don’t appeal always good getting talent in a year earlier, they also get pick 29, they’ve shown in the past they like to pick the potential slider and not a bad pick to have a look at that type.

Gold Coast potentially lose nothing on the first pick downgrade. Draft could go
Pick 1 : Walsh
Pick 2 : Lukosius (GC)
Pick 3 : Rankine (Port)
Pick 4 : Max King (saints)
Pick 5 : Rozee (who they’ve talked about pairing with Lukosius at 3 anyways)

They secure another future first, to go with theirs (likely number 1) our future first (could easily be another top 5) and Ports. Would make for 2 strong back to back drafts atleast.
 

Peel67skin

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#82
Have heard they're keen on spreading their picks over 2 yrs.
Depends on other picks they may recieve in other trades.
I think it's a good gamble by us.
I don't mind it , but then getting 3 DFA just not good . You going to rebuild one way or the other.
 

Peel67skin

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#84
You've lost a fair bit of experience.3 dfa's isn't over the top..
Multi 1st rnd picks this and next year speeds up the rebuild.
The way I see it , no matter what happen they ( Craig and Dew ) are going to take 5 pick into this year draft , whether the 5th pick going to be mature age players such as Marlion Pickett I am not sure . I am not saying you are wrong but So far Craig is quite consistent with taking 5 draftees in this year draft ..
 
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Obeanie1

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#85
IMO Carlton will trade pick 1 to one of the SA clubs.

Looking at the Blues drwft hand they hold pick 1 then their next pick is 69.

Wow.

Pick 1 could land then two firsts and a late 2nd / early 3rd.
 

Drewie11

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#86
IMO Carlton will trade pick 1 to one of the SA clubs.

Looking at the Blues drwft hand they hold pick 1 then their next pick is 69.

Wow.

Pick 1 could land then two firsts and a late 2nd / early 3rd.
I just can’t see the SA teams coughing up what Carlton would want for pick 1.

Carlton’s only hope is to swap with Gold Coast but then both SA teams have better hands to deal with Gold Coast then Carlton.

Carlton will take Walsh and then have to wait until pick 69
 

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Obeanie1

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#87
I just can’t see the SA teams coughing up what Carlton would want for pick 1.

Carlton’s only hope is to swap with Gold Coast but then both SA teams have better hands to deal with Gold Coast then Carlton.

Carlton will take Walsh and then have to wait until pick 69
How many list spots do the Blues need to fill in the draft?

If they do that with pick 1 then picks 69 plus then that is putting all you eggs for 2018 in one basket.

Given where the Blues list is at currently they need more quality and quantity.

Maybe they trade future picks for 2nd rounders?
 

Drewie11

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#88
How many list spots do the Blues need to fill in the draft?

If they do that with pick 1 then picks 69 plus then that is putting all you eggs for 2018 in one basket.

Given where the Blues list is at currently they need more quality and quantity.

Maybe they trade future picks for 2nd rounders?
I don’t think they can trade next years first which is what most teams would be interested in.

They basically just have pick 1 to trade and if they trade that then Walsh will be gone by the time they get a pick
 

Obeanie1

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#89
I don’t think they can trade next years first which is what most teams would be interested in.

They basically just have pick 1 to trade and if they trade that then Walsh will be gone by the time they get a pick
So how do they fill the list spots?

Picks in the 60's isnt much chance of improving.
 

Obeanie1

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#91
Pick 60 could well move up with North, Collingwood F/S and academy players .
If will. Approx 7 spots. I've done the math.

So pick 69 becomes pick 62 for the Blue's 2nd pick.

I can see Gold Coast trading those 2nd rounders if they trade with the SA clubs trading for picks 2 or 3
 

Peel67skin

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#92
If will. Approx 7 spots. I've done the math.

So pick 69 becomes pick 62 for the Blue's 2nd pick.

I can see Gold Coast trading those 2nd rounders if they trade with the SA clubs trading for picks 2 or 3
Possible as long it end 5 pick in top 30 . Adelaide have 4 pick in top 25 and Port have 3 in top 15 .
How many pick North need to gave up for Thomas if bid come in early ? What about Geelong F/s pick (Browless) , Brisbane (Mcfayden) ,GWS (Brigg) , Sydney ( Blakey), Melbourne (Toby Bedford) ,Bulldog (west ,kamis ) academy players could be more than 7 pick .
 
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BORIS332

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#93
How many list spots do the Blues need to fill in the draft?
It looks like they currently have 38 players, I think that means they need to add nine players over ND, RD and PSD combined. They have picks 1, 69, 71 and 77. These later picks will all come in a long way with bids on the below 13 prospects, I think it could well be more than the seven spots your later post suggests:
  • Connor McFadyen
  • Isaac Quaynor
  • Will Kelly
  • Oscar Brownless
  • Kieren Briggs
  • Toby Bedford
  • Bailey Scott
  • Tarryn Thomas
  • Nick Blakey
  • Jarrod Cameron
  • Rhylee West
  • Buku Khamis
  • Irving Mosquito
That said, that only gives them four spots filled from the ND, meaning they'd need to rookie or PSD five more players, which seems unlikely.
 

dlb99

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#94
How many list spots do the Blues need to fill in the draft?

If they do that with pick 1 then picks 69 plus then that is putting all you eggs for 2018 in one basket.

Given where the Blues list is at currently they need more quality and quantity.

Maybe they trade future picks for 2nd rounders?
You are forgetting the trade period.
Mitch McGovern, Nic Newman, Will Setterfield and Alex Fasolo are 4 new additions that are all in our best 22.

Noting that SOS rated Will Setterfield number 1 of the 2016 draft; so if we can him get healthy we will be getting a very high-end talent for relatively little cost.

We take Sam Walsh with pick 1 (unless another club makes a Godfather offer).
Take Ben Silvagni and/or Will Hickmott (Father/Son) with late pick(s).

From memory there are 4 or 5 spots to fill. Take 2 or 3 at the draft and then take a delisted free-agent or two.

No, we will not be competing for finals in 2019; but we should be a lot better than 2018 (not hard, it was a turd of a year for us).

Note, the biggest and most important recruit for the past decade at Carlton was Andrew Russell:


Our fitness and injury management has been league worst since 2012 and was absolutely diabolical this year.
 

Obeanie1

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#95
You are forgetting the trade period.
Mitch McGovern, Nic Newman, Will Setterfield and Alex Fasolo are 4 new additions that are all in our best 22.

Noting that SOS rated Will Setterfield number 1 of the 2016 draft; so if we can him get healthy we will be getting a very high-end talent for relatively little cost.

We take Sam Walsh with pick 1 (unless another club makes a Godfather offer).
Take Ben Silvagni and/or Will Hickmott (Father/Son) with late pick(s).

From memory there are 4 or 5 spots to fill. Take 2 or 3 at the draft and then take a delisted free-agent or two.

No, we will not be competing for finals in 2019; but we should be a lot better than 2018 (not hard, it was a turd of a year for us).

Note, the biggest and most important recruit for the past decade at Carlton was Andrew Russell:


Our fitness and injury management has been league worst since 2012 and was absolutely diabolical this year.
Not forgetting anything.

Carlton will use either 3 or 4 picks in the main draft then its the rookie draft.

We will have to wait
 

The Joker

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#96
Not forgetting anything.

Carlton will use either 3 or 4 picks in the main draft then its the rookie draft.

We will have to wait
And should any other club care that Carlton need more decent picks to fill their list. If anything, it weakens their position and clubs should take advantage of it.
 

Doro

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#97
And should any other club care that Carlton need more decent picks to fill their list. If anything, it weakens their position and clubs should take advantage of it.
The list doesn't need filling so much now, more maturing. Holding on to pick one was always the most likely scenario, as trading put of the top 4 this year would be a massive risk. The work was done this year with players already in the system, so add pick one (likely Walsh) and a 2 or 3 late picks it will be a good result for us.
 

dlb99

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#98
And should any other club care that Carlton need more decent picks to fill their list. If anything, it weakens their position and clubs should take advantage of it.
But we do not need more draft picks (with pick 1 in our hand); he have hit the past 3 drafts.
We already have an age demographic that is too young and immature (hence the reason we chased Shiel).

The two biggest issues we have are: injury and fitness management (worst in the league), and a very poor game plan (this year).
 

dlb99

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#99
Not forgetting anything.

Carlton will use either 3 or 4 picks in the main draft then its the rookie draft.

We will have to wait
2 or 3 picks in the main draft.
Then some rookies.

About 4 or 5 spots to fill. Jed Lamb quite likely to be re-contracted.

No, the list is not fully there yet (obviously).
 

Beer n Skittles

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How many list spots do the Blues need to fill in the draft?

If they do that with pick 1 then picks 69 plus then that is putting all you eggs for 2018 in one basket.

Given where the Blues list is at currently they need more quality and quantity.

Maybe they trade future picks for 2nd rounders?
Looks like we've got 36 on the senior list, can take 4 more. Pretty sure we'll end up with 2-3 father sons on the main list, maybe 1 more on the rookie (Silvagni, Hickmott x2, Manton).

If we split pick 1 into multiple picks we may end up not having enough list spots to match bids on F/S later in the draft. I get the feeling it won't happen.
 
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