Long Range Cups Bets

eastaugh36

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 9, 2000
Posts
11,710
Likes
89
Location
Adelaide
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Glenelg, Redbacks, Lakers
Thread starter #1
Here's mine.

These were placed 2 weeks ago. Many have firmed in since then and a few have drifted. I've got all horses into each other for the double and where listed, I have individual win bets. I have listed the amount I have on for the win. For each double I have $2 on. It came to $200 in total. To the right is the current odds on offer as of today.

CAULFIELD CUP
Marju Snip $10 @ $34 - $51 - A drifter, - I saw on a racing site that the trainer is tossing up whether to limit her to the good mare mile races or to press on for the cup. Pending her next run I think. Here's hoping it's Caulfield Cup bound.

Pinsemtoit $10 @ $101 – Wasn't a first acceptor. :(

Pompeii Ruler $40 @ $17 - $11 - A firmer. :) Once again, a decision needs to be made with him. Caulfield Cup or Cox plate. Fingers crossed.

Purde $10 @ $51 - $26 - Massive firmer. :) Looks the perfect Caulfield Cup type.

Serenade Rose $0 @ $8 - $15 - Drifter. No individual bet on her but she is crucial for my doubles. I think her next run will tell more. Forget her latest in the wet.

MELBOURNE CUP
Sphenophyta $10 @ $51 - $21 - Massive firmer. :) - Will Lee limit him to the Caulfield this prep? Hope not.

Pop Rock $20 @ $34 - $26 - Firmer. :) - Seems very likely to come and that form around Eye Popper excites me.

Young Mick $0 @ $41 - $51 - Drifter. - Bottom line is that if he comes he will start shorter than the $41 I got him for. Only have him in the doubles anyway. Is a first acceptor. I reckon he'll come.

Men At Work $10 @ $101 - $81 - Firmer. - Missed the run on the weekend but it can't have been too bad the way he has shortened. May be one of those who runs in that distance race on the Saturday(formerly The Dalgety?) to try and get a cup start.

Railings $30 @ $15 - $11 - Firmer. :) - You know what you will get with this bloke.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Posts
9
Likes
0
AFL Club
Melbourne
#2
Agree with Serenade rose missed the start on saturday and king was going to ride her on the pace had to go back to last nad came along the rail but peaked on her run she is set for the mile and a half of the caulf cup. railings has 55 in the cc and had the same closing ssectionals as eremein in the chelmesford. this bloke is goog

the cox i reakon is a more open race than the pundits think too many queries over the sydney siders form dubious racing to win is over the odds tho at $11 with esakander but i reakon lad of the manor has only had 1 bad run and is 20/1 el segundo has missed some work with a bruised tendon and that is really hard to back up after and haradasun may be anything ereimein is an injury plagued galloper would risk at moment.

melb cup i like 3 pentane out of pentire sire of xcellent won a 3200 mtr race in syd in march and was amazing watch this spruik horse in nz hold his own over here headturner is hawkes best stayer and should have won 2 derbys and yeats is a uk stayer with got travelling spead in the ilk of vinnie roe weight (59) a problem but could be better than a poor bunch.
 

Ricketts

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jul 11, 2004
Posts
16,442
Likes
113
Location
Price / Newitt
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Mick Kent / Michele Payne
#6
I put 4 bets on the Caulfield Cup on Friday September 1:

Zipping @ $21 - Is now $8.

Molotov @ $41 - Is now $17.

Testafiable @ $35 - Is now $31.

De Beers @ $35 - Not listed any more, does this mean he didn't accept? Can it still get in if it somehow magically rediscovers its form and pays up later?
 

eastaugh36

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Sep 9, 2000
Posts
11,710
Likes
89
Location
Adelaide
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Glenelg, Redbacks, Lakers
Thread starter #7
Ricketts said:
De Beers @ $35 - Not listed any more, does this mean he didn't accept? Can it still get in if it somehow magically rediscovers its form and pays up later?
De Beers is heading to Sydney for the spring. Hayes has said it doesn't handle the Melbourne way of going.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#8
Love these threads,great to look back on.Ill declare my hand & say my only early bets are: C Cup:Sphenophyta @ $31, M Cup Sphenophta @ $67 both @ Centrebet.

Caulfield Cup:IMHO this is always a tricky race to find the winner of.Although the AJC Derby form over the last 4-5 yrs(not usually the winner) has been gold.

If that stands up,the horses to consider are:Headturner,Testifiable,Spinney & Sepia.For me the interesting one is Spinney,terrific 1st up then scratched last week.Sepia is 100/1 & was injured in that R T Win accident.Testifiable has been ok but would need to improve dramatically very soon.Headturner,well he's fave so Ill pass,will be better odds on the day.

Serenade Rose,way under the odds for mine.Every year we get the VRC Oaks form struggling to be competitive,was ok last week but jury's out.

Railings had his birthday last year,beat Eye Popper who took the Veandercross route & Mummify who broke down 100m out & was still just beaten.Has paid at the weights.Not for me.

Pompeii Ruler is the El Segundo of 2006 but if he were mine Id be going to MV.Hardly looking a vintage Cox plate year.

Of the others mentioned,Purde looks promising but will have to win something to get a run.

Then we come to Sphenophyta.This looks untapped to me but still learning.
Threw away a race at the Qld carnival but went massive at WFA last week when definitely on wrong part of the track.Happy with him.

Melbourne Cup:Anyone who's read anything Ive written on here knows my Melb Cup theories,if you arent competitive at WFA,you cant win.

Railings,see above & not a WFA horse

Sphenophyta,if he backs up that last WFA effort, Id like him to run 2nd at Caulfield & miss the penalty

Headturner,definitely but $7 with 8 wks to go,please.

Eremein is unlikely to go there,Serenade Rose see above,O Smoking Joe looked like a 2 miler last week,Zipping almost convinced me last week.
lloyd's horses seem to struggle late in the Spring though.

Of the internationals,Yeats looks certain to be here & he has handled his fellow UK horses easily.They will all need every bit of the weight turnaround.Of Godolphin's theres been money for Imperial Stride so its obviously coming,its form is terrific & they are gunna win one soon.

That just leaves the Japanese,Pop Rock is "apparently" a better horse than Eye Popper & has form around super horse Deep Impact who will run fave in the Arc.That is definitely good enough.

This should be interesting to update as we go.

seth
 

SaintsSupporter

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Jul 25, 2004
Posts
5,254
Likes
3
Location
Sydney
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
St. Kilda
#9
Men At Work doesn't have a hope in hell of getting 3200m. His run in the Metrop last year was excellent but he was clearly dying on the line behind Railings. He'll win this year's Metrop but getting 3200m is a serious doubt.

I like all of your other bets, except I really don't think Serenade Rose can match it in good staying races yet. Been saying this all winter.
 

go fullta

Club Legend
Joined
Feb 28, 2006
Posts
1,099
Likes
0
Location
victoria
AFL Club
Geelong
#11
im not a fan of "long range betting" when these main events are still so far away!!! so many things can happen in this time and it just seems like a raffle/lottery type betting system!!
im happy to wait until the acceptances come out, then decide who i will be backing!!!

railings to win both cups= if that happens fullta will win the newmarket this season....meaning= no chance
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#13
Spinney's effort today was first rate in track record time.Showed some real dash & just peaked with 100 to go.
Notice he's not in the Melb Cup so Caulfield may be his GF.
$15 top odds now after $31 bet today.

seth
 

Lockyer24

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jul 3, 2001
Posts
20,673
Likes
5,834
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Heat, Victory, Man Utd, Redskins
#16
Headturner is my pick but $7 is ridiculous, I reckon its done bugger all to be favourite. Makybe Diva paid $5 or so for last years Cup FFS!

More speculative bet will be Siamun ($72) for a place, hoping it can do a Zazzman (god bless his heart)
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#17
sethlad said:
Of Godolphin's theres been money for Imperial Stride so its obviously coming,its form is terrific & they are gunna win one soon.
sethlad said:
Imperial Stride won 1st up at Goodwood overnight with Mcevoy up.Just got there but it was his 1st run for over 12 months after injury.Is still in all the big 3 races but C Cup/Melb Cup looks the obvious path.

Has now won his last 5,cant remember Godolphin bringing one with such hot form out here.Has won in a field of 20,rare for the UK horses
Looks like Mcevoy will keep the ride.

www.timeform.com/godolphin/gd_horse.asp?code=00173493&source=01

seth
 

Ted

Club Legend
Joined
Jun 3, 2003
Posts
1,430
Likes
239
Location
Suva
AFL Club
North Melbourne
#19
I managed to get a little bit on Imperial Stride at $100 on betfair a month or so back.

My other long range Melb Cup bets were Molotov at $190 and Tawqeet at $26.

Caulfield Cup I got on Spinney at $36.
 
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Posts
9
Likes
0
AFL Club
Melbourne
#20
My other long range Melb Cup bets were Molotov at $190 and Tawqeet at $26.

ted u r on fire

i think the run of molotov was huge on sat considering the track bias and speed dead set 3200 mtr horse
 

fearlessone77

Club Legend
Suspended
Joined
Sep 17, 2003
Posts
2,587
Likes
5
Location
Planet Zorg
Other Teams
Carlton
#22
fearlessone77 said:
I have taken the $71 and $18.50 for Peter Moody's Magic Instinct. I suggest others do the same.
No $17 , Dont say you weren't told, when it wins the Metrop it will be $6 an then I have to deecided how much of the $17,750 for the win bet to give away on Betfair. Ill keep the $250 the place running at 18's and have a chance at collecting $4500 for him placing in the Cup.

P.S. I did have a little indide help on this bet by the way, but the infor was based around him winning the Metropolitan, My plan all along was to sell him on Betfair should he win the Metropolitan so Im not going to claim to be any sort of punting guru.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#23
Yep thats looks quite a price now.Ran on ok.

IMHO I would wanna see him at WFA before Id be thinking he could win a Melb Cup.Metrop form is nowhere near good enough,C Cup maybe?

Not that any of this matters if youre gunna lay it though.

seth
 
Top Bottom