Long-term future of the AFL.

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Jul 2, 2010
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1991?
Well, my memory of interstate footy goes back to the mid 1970s.
In comparison to club footy, Melburnians have never given a damn about interstate footy.
Sure, every now and then you get some reminiscing about the big V, but there's no massive clamour to get it back.
It's gone, and on the whole, Melbourne footy fans don't actually care all that much that it's gone.

I lived in Melbourne in the 80s and early 90s. I was at the 'G for the big game in 89 v South Australia with 90,000 others. The problem was never support.

It was never properly promoted, the eligibility rules kept being changed and the league let the clubs dilute the product by allowing flimsy excuses to eliminate eligble players from participating.

Your right though, people dont give a damn any more unless they are hardline traditionalists.
 

Bjo187

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I think the only way state football will return is if a New South Wales or Queensland get enough players to form a competitive enough team to challenge Victoria. So that would be at least 30 or so years.
 

RedV3x

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I think the only way state football will return is if a New South Wales or Queensland get enough players to form a competitive enough team to challenge Victoria.

I'm not sure that Victoria is that strong. It's seems that the "VFL" is more like AFL reserves competition.
I know NSW has beaten W.A. on at least one occasion.
We're not talking about a pure state competition. We're talking about a state-based competition.
Thus you could have two Victorian teams - city and country for example as they do now.
 

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NoobPie

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I think the only way state football will return is if a New South Wales or Queensland get enough players to form a competitive enough team to challenge Victoria. So that would be at least 30 or so years.


The fact that they can put a team on the park full of AFL players is enough. NSW would be more than competitive against SA right no I would have thought

The main reason you would bring it back is to leverage the concept in NSW and Queensland. You basically add another layer of interest generation in those places and provide an opportunity for representative football for kids that might be tossing up between football and one of the three other codes

To make it work you would need to

1) play it at the end of the season
2) pay the players a decent amount

Any attempt to play during the season, or the preseason, is doomed to fail

I would
-play 3 games at the end of the season
-perhaps initially either every other year of every three years
-teams start with seedings based on the previous year
-play every team at lest once over three seasons
-first two games determine rankings with the last game championship game and 3rd versus 4th, 5th versus 6th.
-play alternating home and away except for Victoria who always plays away
 

The_JHF_Clinic

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The discussion about conferences in this thread has got me thinking about how they could be used to improve the AFL season structure and also facilitate expansion. I believe that after the inclusion of team 20, conferences should be strongly considered. With 20 teams, some clubs will be experiencing seriously long premiership droughts. Even in Euro soccer leagues with 20 clubs; in addition to the title race, there are the battles for promotion/relegation, Champions/Europa league positions etc, which keep the fans of most teams engaged throughout the season.

The MLB and the NFL celebrate American and National League/Conference champions before those teams compete in the World Series or Super Bowl. A time to acknowledge conference champions in AFL could be after the H&A season and before the finals. Some might argue that a successful H&A season is only half the job done, which is true, although the Premiership race will only become harder with more teams competing. Therefore, a conference system could provide high performing teams (who don’t quite get it done in finals) a chance to achieve something each season. For example, a team like St Kilda from the late 2000’s didn’t win a flag, but might manage to win a few conference championships during their window.

Over time, Conference championships could become meaningful to clubs and their supporters; especially if structured geographically to promote rivalries. As previously mentioned, there’s no way of making the comp entirely fair when 50% of teams come from one state, but a conference system can help create a fixture that’s less random so it’s an improvement on the current 18 club-22 round season.

I’ve had a play around with models involving 4 and 5 conferences that could be utilised (with expansion) to turn the AFL into more of a national competition. Personally, I think a 4 conference model would work better for the AFL because it provides a fairer geographical split and allows for an easier expansion towards 24 teams at a later date. The main downside of the model below is that it involves the co-location of a Vic club to make it work. This would probably be unacceptable for the supporters of that club; although if you look at it logically, 5 or 6 Vic home games + access to Vic away games equals 11 or 12, which is not that bad when you consider it’s the same amount of home games that a non-Victorian club membership currently offers.

Co-location was suggested as a viable option in the Carter report in relation to Tasmania. I don’t think Tassie is the right market for that, but the NT could be due it being a smaller market and the extreme weather they have at certain times of the year. If a Vic club was going to pursue a co-location then it would likely be one of the smaller clubs (e.g. St Kilda, North, Melbourne or the Bulldogs).

4 Conference Model:

AFL Competition by 2030

20 Teams, 4 conferences, 23 Rounds, 11 home games and a magic round at the MCG (like the NRL do). Play teams in your conference twice and all other teams once.

Expansion:
  1. Tasmania Devils
  2. Canberra-Murray Rams or Tridents
  3. Northern Saints / Kangaroos / Demons / Bulldogs (co-location between Melbourne and Darwin).
All 3 clubs get access to their own academy zones.

Western Conference
  • WCE, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Northern Saints / Roos / Demons / Bulldogs (Darwin 5/6, Melbourne 5/6 home games + members get access to away games in Vic).
Eastern Conference
  • Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Canberra-Murray (Canberra 8, Albury 3).
South-West Conference (SW Vic)
  • Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne.
South-East Conference (SE Vic + Tas)
  • Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Tasmania (Hobart 5/6 and Launceston 5/6).

AFL competition by 2050

24 teams, 4 conferences, 24 Rounds. Play a rival from your conference twice and all other teams once.

Expansion - staggered entry of teams, not possible to do all at once:
  1. WA3 (Dingoes/Pirates) added to Western Conference.
  2. North Sydney Wales (wearing state colours and playing out of North Sydney Oval) added to Eastern Conference.
  3. Queensland Crocs added to Eastern Conference (like the NT club, having dual bases would be advantageous at certain times of the year when there’s extreme weather in FNQ).
  4. New Zealand added to South-East Conference.
  5. Canberra-Murray moved to South-West Conference.
Western Conference
  • WCE, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Northern Saints / Kangaroos / Demons / Bulldogs, WA3.
Eastern Conference
  • Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, Gold Coast, North Sydney Wales (N Syd 8, Newcastle 4), Queensland Crocs (Cairns 5, Sunny Coast 5, Townsville 2).
South-West Conference
  • Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton, Canberra-Murray.
South-East Conference
  • Collingwood, Richmond, Tasmania, Hawthorn, St Kilda, New Zealand (Auckland 8, Wellington 2, Christchurch 2).

Finals Series (used from 20 clubs onwards) - 10 teams over 5 Weeks.
  • Top 4 = conference winners. Play qualifying finals.
  • Best 2 records in the league = host qualifying finals.
  • Best 2 runners up in the league = host elimination finals.
  • Remaining 4 best records from any conference = wildcard round for 7/8th finals spot.
  • Pre-finals bye for best 6 teams during WC Round.
  • Usual top 8 system in finals weeks 2-5.
  • Make the comp more national by sharing the GF around the best grounds in each conference so in a 4 year period it looks like: 1. MCG (South-West), 2. Ade Oval/Optus (Western), 3. MCG (South-East), 4. SCG/Gabba (Eastern). This would only be possible if those venues continue to get upgrades to increase capacity.
With the NRL expanding, I think the AFL need to be bold and implement an expansion plan that takes thecompetition to the next level in terms of fan engagement, revenue, national exposure etc. No model is perfect, but if the end game was a 24 team, 24 round comp with 4 conferences and 5 weeks of finals then I think that’s a far better model than what we currently have. I also believe that it would be more exciting than a 19 or 23 round season with every team playing each other once, because there is more for teams to achieve and celebrate in addition to the premiership, which supporters of certain clubs may only see their team win once in their lifetime - if at all.
 

Bjo187

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The discussion about conferences in this thread has got me thinking about how they could be used to improve the AFL season structure and also facilitate expansion. I believe that after the inclusion of team 20, conferences should be strongly considered. With 20 teams, some clubs will be experiencing seriously long premiership droughts. Even in Euro soccer leagues with 20 clubs; in addition to the title race, there are the battles for promotion/relegation, Champions/Europa league positions etc, which keep the fans of most teams engaged throughout the season.

The MLB and the NFL celebrate American and National League/Conference champions before those teams compete in the World Series or Super Bowl. A time to acknowledge conference champions in AFL could be after the H&A season and before the finals. Some might argue that a successful H&A season is only half the job done, which is true, although the Premiership race will only become harder with more teams competing. Therefore, a conference system could provide high performing teams (who don’t quite get it done in finals) a chance to achieve something each season. For example, a team like St Kilda from the late 2000’s didn’t win a flag, but might manage to win a few conference championships during their window.

Over time, Conference championships could become meaningful to clubs and their supporters; especially if structured geographically to promote rivalries. As previously mentioned, there’s no way of making the comp entirely fair when 50% of teams come from one state, but a conference system can help create a fixture that’s less random so it’s an improvement on the current 18 club-22 round season.

I’ve had a play around with models involving 4 and 5 conferences that could be utilised (with expansion) to turn the AFL into more of a national competition. Personally, I think a 4 conference model would work better for the AFL because it provides a fairer geographical split and allows for an easier expansion towards 24 teams at a later date. The main downside of the model below is that it involves the co-location of a Vic club to make it work. This would probably be unacceptable for the supporters of that club; although if you look at it logically, 5 or 6 Vic home games + access to Vic away games equals 11 or 12, which is not that bad when you consider it’s the same amount of home games that a non-Victorian club membership currently offers.

Co-location was suggested as a viable option in the Carter report in relation to Tasmania. I don’t think Tassie is the right market for that, but the NT could be due it being a smaller market and the extreme weather they have at certain times of the year. If a Vic club was going to pursue a co-location then it would likely be one of the smaller clubs (e.g. St Kilda, North, Melbourne or the Bulldogs).

4 Conference Model:

AFL Competition by 2030

20 Teams, 4 conferences, 23 Rounds, 11 home games and a magic round at the MCG (like the NRL do). Play teams in your conference twice and all other teams once.

Expansion:
  1. Tasmania Devils
  2. Canberra-Murray Rams or Tridents
  3. Northern Saints / Kangaroos / Demons / Bulldogs (co-location between Melbourne and Darwin).
All 3 clubs get access to their own academy zones.

Western Conference
  • WCE, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Northern Saints / Roos / Demons / Bulldogs (Darwin 5/6, Melbourne 5/6 home games + members get access to away games in Vic).
Eastern Conference
  • Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Canberra-Murray (Canberra 8, Albury 3).
South-West Conference (SW Vic)
  • Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton, Melbourne.
South-East Conference (SE Vic + Tas)
  • Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Tasmania (Hobart 5/6 and Launceston 5/6).

AFL competition by 2050

24 teams, 4 conferences, 24 Rounds. Play a rival from your conference twice and all other teams once.

Expansion - staggered entry of teams, not possible to do all at once:
  1. WA3 (Dingoes/Pirates) added to Western Conference.
  2. North Sydney Wales (wearing state colours and playing out of North Sydney Oval) added to Eastern Conference.
  3. Queensland Crocs added to Eastern Conference (like the NT club, having dual bases would be advantageous at certain times of the year when there’s extreme weather in FNQ).
  4. New Zealand added to South-East Conference.
  5. Canberra-Murray moved to South-West Conference.
Western Conference
  • WCE, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Northern Saints / Kangaroos / Demons / Bulldogs, WA3.
Eastern Conference
  • Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, Gold Coast, North Sydney Wales (N Syd 8, Newcastle 4), Queensland Crocs (Cairns 5, Sunny Coast 5, Townsville 2).
South-West Conference
  • Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Carlton, Canberra-Murray.
South-East Conference
  • Collingwood, Richmond, Tasmania, Hawthorn, St Kilda, New Zealand (Auckland 8, Wellington 2, Christchurch 2).

Finals Series (used from 20 clubs onwards) - 10 teams over 5 Weeks.
  • Top 4 = conference winners. Play qualifying finals.
  • Best 2 records in the league = host qualifying finals.
  • Best 2 runners up in the league = host elimination finals.
  • Remaining 4 best records from any conference = wildcard round for 7/8th finals spot.
  • Pre-finals bye for best 6 teams during WC Round.
  • Usual top 8 system in finals weeks 2-5.
  • Make the comp more national by sharing the GF around the best grounds in each conference so in a 4 year period it looks like: 1. MCG (South-West), 2. Ade Oval/Optus (Western), 3. MCG (South-East), 4. SCG/Gabba (Eastern). This would only be possible if those venues continue to get upgrades to increase capacity.
With the NRL expanding, I think the AFL need to be bold and implement an expansion plan that takes thecompetition to the next level in terms of fan engagement, revenue, national exposure etc. No model is perfect, but if the end game was a 24 team, 24 round comp with 4 conferences and 5 weeks of finals then I think that’s a far better model than what we currently have. I also believe that it would be more exciting than a 19 or 23 round season with every team playing each other once, because there is more for teams to achieve and celebrate in addition to the premiership, which supporters of certain clubs may only see their team win once in their lifetime - if at all.

I do agree with a lot of your ideas. Well put together and a good proposal. The reason being the further that the competition expands the more teams that just sit in the bottom part of the ladder with nothing to play for for a long time each season. There has to be some carrot other than finishing number one once every 50 years if that.
 
May 24, 2022
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Tasmania and Canberra should get an AFL team. That puts the comp to 20 and I think that’d be fine long-term.

Doubt any Victorian clubs will ever relocate again so the two new franchises will need to be home made.

WA3 could happen as they are the 2nd biggest AFL market and have the numbers/money, but do the fans really want that? Freo hasn’t even won a premiership yet.

QLD3 has been proposed to have a team in Northern Queensland. I’m not against that but I think Queensland is the only state that AFL will never conquer as it is NRL expansion territory. Yes there are more NRL teams in NSW but Aussie Rules has a stronger foothold there.

NSW3 can happen as they have the population and recourses but that would stunt GWS growth. Canberra/ACT/CBR is a better option.

SA3 could happen but it’d be difficult compared to WA3 as SA is a much smaller. Only viable option imho is a Norwood-led franchise but they would need quite a bit of charity from the AFL to get started. Probably would be better for investors to pump money into the SANFL to keep the best state league alive rather than trying to get another team into the Victorian/National league.

I reckon SA and WA getting an NRL team would be more awesome than a 3rd AFL license.
 

Johnny Bananas

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22 teams, playing each other club once, plus a rivalry round for two local derbies a year. I don't think WA3 will ever happen, instead we'll have Tasmania and Canberra in the next 10 years, then Sydney 3 (possibly based out of the new airport city) and Newcastle by 2050. Can't see them expanding any further after that. Darwin and Cairns will remain markets for poor clubs to sell games to.
 
May 24, 2022
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22 teams, playing each other club once, plus a rivalry round for two local derbies a year. I don't think WA3 will ever happen, instead we'll have Tasmania and Canberra in the next 10 years, then Sydney 3 (possibly based out of the new airport city) and Newcastle by 2050. Can't see them expanding any further after that. Darwin and Cairns will remain markets for poor clubs to sell games to.
A Canberra team would be great!
 
Mar 24, 2017
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Tasmania and Canberra should get an AFL team. That puts the comp to 20 and I think that’d be fine long-term.

Doubt any Victorian clubs will ever relocate again so the two new franchises will need to be home made.

WA3 could happen as they are the 2nd biggest AFL market and have the numbers/money, but do the fans really want that? Freo hasn’t even won a premiership yet.

QLD3 has been proposed to have a team in Northern Queensland. I’m not against that but I think Queensland is the only state that AFL will never conquer as it is NRL expansion territory. Yes there are more NRL teams in NSW but Aussie Rules has a stronger foothold there.

NSW3 can happen as they have the population and recourses but that would stunt GWS growth. Canberra/ACT/CBR is a better option.

SA3 could happen but it’d be difficult compared to WA3 as SA is a much smaller. Only viable option imho is a Norwood-led franchise but they would need quite a bit of charity from the AFL to get started. Probably would be better for investors to pump money into the SANFL to keep the best state league alive rather than trying to get another team into the Victorian/National league.

I reckon SA and WA getting an NRL team would be more awesome than a 3rd AFL license.
Lots of good points but disagree that AFL is bigger in NSW than QLD. Take out the Riverina (has always been AR) and the 5km surrounding the SCG and there is virtually zero support anywhere else. Footy is as strong as RL strong on the GC, Brisbane is stronger than Sydney, plus Cairns to Port Douglas is full of Victorians.

AFL will never ‘conquer’ either state but by 2050 should expect a 35/65 AFL/NRL split in Brisbane and perhaps 20/80 in Sydney.
 
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Lots of good points but disagree that AFL is bigger in NSW than QLD. Take out the Riverina (has always been AR) and the 5km surrounding the SCG and there is virtually zero support anywhere else. Footy is as strong as RL strong on the GC, Brisbane is stronger than Sydney, plus Cairns to Port Douglas is full of Victorians.

AFL will never ‘conquer’ either state but by 2050 should expect a 35/65 AFL/NRL split in Brisbane and perhaps 20/80 in Sydney.

20% of Sydney is less than the size of Adelaide, so those who think Sydney3 need to realise GWS is decades away from being possibly established in any meaningful way. Maybe get that right first??

The AFL might be better served paying more attention to regional & rural grass roots football, in all states.
 

RedV3x

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Tasmania and Canberra should get an AFL team.

Tasmania and Canberra should get an AFL team but it begs the question - what model AFL ?

That puts the comp to 20 and I think that’d be fine long-term.

That puts the comp to 20 and that has already gone past the optimum number of teams w.r.t. being in realistic touch of occasional success.
The AFL would have to look at some sort of conference system
and the AFL has to seriously pump up other milestones like minor premier and just being a finalist as
"That puts the comp to 20 and that has already gone past the optimum number of teams w.r.t. being in realistic touch of occasional success."

Doubt any Victorian clubs will ever relocate again so the two new franchises will need to be home made.

Even "struggling" Melbourne AFL clubs are substantially large especially in comparison to NRL clubs
so it is difficult to see re-location and definitely not merging but some action is definitely required.
I see regional associations - Alice Springs, Darwin, Riverina, Cairns, Townsville etc as essential.

WA3 could happen as they are the 2nd biggest AFL market and have the numbers/money,

Again. WA3 technically possible but - what model AFL - large successful clubs with mass or numerous boutique clubs ?
The benefit is minimal - WA3 doesn't increase ratings or attendances much in the current setup
and we've seen how recent AFL additions have diluted average ratings and attendances.

but do the fans really want that? Freo hasn’t even won a premiership yet.

Do any fans want to wait a lifetime to experience success ?
It's sort of OK for clubs with history to fall back and reflect upon but new clubs have to have something to hang their hat on.
It was such a big deal for the Swans to win their first modern premiership and the Saints are still waiting.

QLD3 has been proposed to have a team in Northern Queensland.

It's been proposed (by some here) but again, that would take a serious re-think of what type of AFL model the AFL want.
It would most likely be both a boutique and a shared club - Cairns, Townsville, Darwin etc.

I’m not against that but I think Queensland is the only state that AFL will never conquer

Queensland is already conquered. It is already successful and could do with more success but why do people consistently worry about dominance ?

as it is NRL expansion territory.

Huh ? The NRL model has been to consolidate where NRL is popular. Not much left to consolidate
and matching the AFL in numbers also brings in the associated problem of the length of the competition for fans.

Yes there are more NRL teams in NSW but Aussie Rules has a stronger foothold there.

Really depends on your outlook.
Australian Football is spread across Queensland with strong regional competitions.
Participation is very good and even better with the AFLW.
During periods of onfield success the Lions outdraw the Broncos.
In NSW Australian Football is not spread across evenly across the state at all.
and the major statistic for AFL is that the Swans attendances are significant against all the NRL games.

NSW3 can happen as they have the population and resources but that would stunt GWS growth.

There is no logic in that statement. The addition of GWS produced the optimal two-club city derby situation.
Any NSW3 (if feasible) would only increase interest.


Canberra/ACT/CBR is a better option.

Than NSW3 ? ATM -then probably yes

SA3 could happen but it’d be difficult compared to WA3 as SA is a much smaller.

As with WA3 - there is no particular reason or demand for such and fans are more than happy with strong WA and SA AFL clubs.

Only viable option imho is a Norwood-led franchise but they would need quite a bit of charity from the AFL to get started.

Norwood is a minnow compare to Port Adelaide and look at P.A.

I reckon SA and WA getting an NRL team would be more awesome than a 3rd AFL license.

It took many years and private money and successive premierships for the Storm to come of age.
No, Tasmania finally being rewarded for their historical heritage in Australian Football would be awesome.

All this discussion about development tends to overlook the fundamentals.
Australian Football is well established all over Australia and there are well attended clubs across Australia
but there are some major anomalies.
The Swans can draw attendances that are significant against the total of NRL games in Sydney
but when it comes to ratings it's a totally different story.
Whilst I think that ratings are highly compromised that doesn't explain the huge disparity.
Population, participation, attendances. sponsorships, performance are the cornerstone of any club
but the AFL should be looking at improving ratings as well where AFL ratings are not strong.
 

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May 24, 2022
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I was thinking BC Baggers because of some alliteration, & also because of baggage at the Airport. :)

Even so I don't see that as happening anytime this century.

I can see Tassie happening obviously, but hard to predict where the 20th franchise would be. If I had to pick one place, I would choose Canberra.
 
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My view is it will be the new airport city that they're building at Badgery's Creek. I predict it will become bigger than Penrith or Campbelltown in time.
Last thing we need is two teams in Western Sydney. One will never work let alone two. It is the part of Australia that likes RL the most and AF the least. Totally unsuitable demographics.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Last thing we need is two teams in Western Sydney. One will never work let alone two. It is the part of Australia that likes RL the most and AF the least. Totally unsuitable demographics.
If you get in first to an area, you can become ingrained in it. This is going to be the biggest development in Australia and the AFL are silly if they don't at least have a plan for it.
 

RedV3x

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Last thing we need is two teams in Western Sydney. One will never work let alone two. It is the part of Australia that likes RL the most and AF the least. Totally unsuitable demographics.

Again with the Sydney bashing.
It is the part of Australia that likes soccer the most and AF is unttried. Totally suitable demographics open to a little promoption.
 

RedV3x

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Pretty interesting to think that AFL is still expanding.

Yes and it's awesome to think that it can get even bigger in Australia
though the rate of change is the issue.

Sometimes I wish I was born further in the future so that I could experience the game at its full potential from young.

Exactly, but does it really matter ? I enjoy the fact there is a truly national competition even if there is room for more.
I'm involved with AF overseas and that continues to expand but at a pedestrian pace.
Though I get a kick that so many nationalities are playing our game (not speaking English)
there is still an element of "does it really matter" in the background.
The AFL's attitude to the International Cup suggests that it's not committed at all to amateurs
but it was disappointing to see that AFL ventures in South Africa and N.Z. and P.A.'s venture in China seemingly come to nothing.
IF Covid had never happened and Auckland pulled it's finger out we might have had a N.Z. team by now.
 

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