Long-term future of the AFL.

[Rob]

I don't think we'll ever see relocation of a Victorian club ever again. Only expansion from here on out.

Forever is a long time. It's all to do with the financial position of the AFL, whilst they can afford to subsidise those clubs then they're in no danger. But there's no guarantee that they'll always be in that position.

Club gets in trouble - converts to private ownership - owner moves the team. Not that hard to envisage.

 

[RedV3x]

India.

Finland.

 

[Tigerlaird]

Long-term future, 2050ish, I see multiple teams in SA and WA.

 

[Kwality]

Long-term future, 2050ish, I see multiple teams in SA and WA.

So not elite.
The Olympic finals have 8 runners, because they are the best in the world.

 

[Tigerlaird]

So not elite.
The Olympic finals have 8 runners, because they are the best in the world.

You have to give an take. Have to sacrifice a degree of eliteness for representation. New team will always struggle in the first decade or so, but eventually the skill level will match up with the rest.

 

[Kwality]

You have to give an take. Have to sacrifice a degree of eliteness for representation. New team will always struggle in the first decade or so, but eventually the skill level will match up with the rest.

The desire to see the best playing each other will spawn a change, as Origin did in the State League era, & as economics gave us a bastardised version of a national comp.

For those who would envisage a UK Premier League model, time to wax lyrical.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

I don't think we'll ever see relocation of a Victorian club ever again. Only expansion from here on out.

We will see a team relocate or merge, it just won't be publicly forced.
You'll see the afl start limiting funding, but then dangle the carrot of a complete payout of the debt if the team moves

 

[Tigerlaird]

The desire to see the best playing each other will spawn a change, as Origin did in the State League era, & as economics gave us a bastardised version of a national comp.

For those who would envisage a UK Premier League model, time to wax lyrical.

Not sure if we can do a premier league model, would it be like the top 10 clubs or something.

I can see (with tonnes of investment) a national second division working, and have the top non-afl alligned state league clubs compete permanently in there e.g. Southport, Norwood, West Perth, etc.

Their positions in the state leagues would have to be replaced in WAFL and SANFL, and VFL can survive with a bit of reduction.

 

[Kwality]

Not sure if we can do a premier league model, would it be like the top 10 clubs or something.

I can see (with tonnes of investment) a national second division working, and have the top non-afl alligned state league clubs compete permanently in there e.g. Southport, Norwood, West Perth, etc.

Their positions in the state leagues would have to be replaced in WAFL and SANFL, and VFL can survive with a bit of reduction.

Where is the money for a second division coming from ?
WA is the only State where its business model includes the AFL clubs funnel money to local footy (the WAFC).

 

[Roylion]

We will see a team relocate or merge, it just won't be publicly forced.

No AFL team has been publicly forced to merge or relocate.

You'll see the afl start limiting funding,

What sort of funding would they limit?

but then dangle the carrot of a complete payout of the debt if the team moves

Haven't the AFL tried this before with no success?

 

[MortlockWatcher]

Let's get one thing clear. Successive W.A. governments haven't supported Australian Football much at all.
Successive W.A. governments have reneged on many Australian Football projects
and tried to screw Australian Football with the contract for the new stadium.
The break even point is at least 25K.
WA3 would have no support from the W.A. government, reasoning that there is enough here already
but WA3 would lose money at the new stadium so where would WA3 play?
the only people proposing WA3 are here on B.F.

Correct.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

20 teams, play everyone once. More emphasis on giving games meaning.

NT will come in after Tasmania, and then there will be a long debate surrounding Canberra. Does a Melbourne team move, do GWS move? How viable is the Gold Coast?

20 Teams is the absolute, absolute maximum there can be, at least until 2050.

What we are seeing at the moment post covid is a complete shift in mentality. People are more inclined to stay at home and support teams than regularly going to matches. This could take years to alter behaviour wise.

Less is more. Only need to look at the big bash to see how much that has been cooked by saturation. Even leagues far bigger and wealthier than the AFL (NBA) are experiencing a decline in attendance due to saturation and a behavioural shift

NFL has it about right. Shorter season, more impact.

Play everyone once. 19 rounds, 10 games a round + increased finals with wildcard games (11 finals in total) = 201 games

Current model - 18 team, 9 games a round at 22 rounds + 9 finals = 207 Games

Not a drastic change but a better change.

 

[Coolangatta]

20 teams, play everyone once. More emphasis on giving games meaning.

NT will come in after Tasmania, and then there will be a long debate surrounding Canberra. Does a Melbourne team move, do GWS move? How viable is the Gold Coast?

20 Teams is the absolute, absolute maximum there can be, at least until 2050.

What we are seeing at the moment post covid is a complete shift in mentality. People are more inclined to stay at home and support teams than regularly going to matches. This could take years to alter behaviour wise.

Less is more. Only need to look at the big bash to see how much that has been cooked by saturation. Even leagues far bigger and wealthier than the AFL (NBA) are experiencing a decline in attendance due to saturation and a behavioural shift

NFL has it about right. Shorter season, more impact.

Play everyone once. 19 rounds, 10 games a round + increased finals with wildcard games (11 finals in total) = 201 games

Current model - 18 team, 9 games a round at 22 rounds + 9 finals = 207 Games

Not a drastic change but a better change.

Nah, NT isn’t viable for a long time, if ever.

I agree about leaving it at 20 teams until 2050 but I think the 20th team should be Canberra.

NT can be team 21.

No chance there’ll be less than 23 games per season per club.

 

[Tigerlaird]

Where is the money for a second division coming from ?
WA is the only State where its business model includes the AFL clubs funnel money to local footy (the WAFC).

Not from you obviously.

It’s not impossible to fund a million dollar project like a national 2nd division.

 

[RedV3x]

It’s not impossible to fund a million dollar project like a national 2nd division.

But it is possible to have a second tier national championship.

 

[MortlockWatcher]

But it is possible to have a second tier national championship.

It would be more likely than a league would. I am sure $1 million plus per club (roughly a third of which is likely to be sucked up by travel and accommodation) could be used to greater benefit for football than a second-tier league. The AFL won't throw $12 million down to fund 12 second-tier teams.

The only issue is finding a sugar daddy to sponsor it and cover costs. As we saw with the Foxtel Cup, second-tier football isn't going to fill the grandstands and be a money-making venture. They would need a sponsor that understands this.

An AFL reserves competition is much more likely with the result being a plundering of the stocks of second-tier football, rendering the concept of a second division dead in the water.

 

[MortlockWatcher]

Where is the money for a second division coming from ?
WA is the only State where its business model includes the AFL clubs funnel money to local footy (the WAFC).

And that is why grassroots football in WA is in reasonable shape compared to Victoria and SA.

 

[Kwality]

It would be more likely than a league would. I am sure $1 million plus per club (roughly a third of which is likely to be sucked up by travel and accommodation) could be used to greater benefit for football than a second-tier league. The AFL won't throw $12 million down to fund 12 second-tier teams.

The only issue is finding a sugar daddy to sponsor it and cover costs. As we saw with the Foxtel Cup, second-tier football isn't going to fill the grandstands and be a money-making venture. They would need a sponsor that understands this.

An AFL reserves comp will destroy the 2nd tier across ALL markets but, it would be able to hide the costs.

 

[EBERT THE KING]

Nah, NT isn’t viable for a long time, if ever.

I agree about leaving it at 20 teams until 2050 but I think the 20th team should be Canberra.

NT can be team 21.

No chance there’ll be less than 23 games per season per club.

Why isnt it viable? Much stronger local leagues up there that in Canberra and far more participation.

 

[MortlockWatcher]

An AFL reserves comp will destroy the 2nd tier across ALL markets but, it would be able to hide the costs.

No doubt the standard of the state leagues will drop as a consequence. I reckon that once the AFL reserves returns, the WAFL, SANFL and VFL will become under 25's competitions consisting mostly of players who fell short of being drafted but are still close to the mark.

Those competitions will be used to filter players into AFL clubs via the reserves with each AFL club having a supplementary list of about 10-15 players to top up their reserves list like the VFL clubs did in the 1970s and 1980s.

Once we have an AFL reserves competition, any far-fetched plans for a second division will be killed off.

 

[Kwality]

No doubt the standard of the state leagues will drop as a consequence. I reckon that once the AFL reserves returns, the WAFL, SANFL and VFL will become under 25's competitions consisting mostly of players who fell short of being drafted but are still close to the mark.

Those competitions will be used to filter players into AFL clubs via the reserves with each AFL club having a supplementary list of about 10-15 players to top up their reserves list like the VFL clubs did in the 1970s and 1980s.

Once we have an AFL reserves competition, any far-fetched plans for a second division will be killed off.

So 'used by' date is 25 .... .... who pays for an extra 180+ players ?

An AFL reserves comp would be a backwards step for the game.

 

[RedV3x]

It would be more likely than a league would.

because all that is needed is playoffs between the state league premiers.

As we saw with the Foxtel Cup, second-tier football isn't going to fill the grandstands and be a money-making venture.

During the season - yes, but playoffs between the newly crowned premiers would guarantee support from that team's fans plus a level of state pride interest.

An AFL reserves competition is much more likely water.

Even the NFL doesn't have teams travelling across the U.S.A.
There is absolutely no need for an AFL reserves competition, no interest and no money.

 

[Tigerlaird]

The top 12 clubs should form an Australian rules premier league.

The rest is formed into the National Second Division (NSD) nicknamed "The Championship" with the top clubs from the state leagues invited to join. The NSD enables the most powerful state league clubs to permanently play in a competition that will provide opportunity to reach their full potential, while also acting as a reserves league for the premership clubs.

The new Australian Rules Football (ARF) pyramid will be structured as:


The AFL "The Premiership"
12 clubs



The NSD "The Championship"
18 clubs - Reserves affiliation with Premiership clubs.
Multiple clubs can be reserves for one premiership club, similar to rugby league state leagues.



The NFL
SANFL - VFL - WAFL - NSWAFL - QAFL - TFL
9 clubs in each state league, premiers face off in finals series for the NFL championship title.
The clubs that entered the NSD can be replaced by the strongest clubs in the leagues below the state leagues.


The various leagues under the state leagues which feed into the state league teams.​

This new league system does not involve automatic progression or relegation. It enables the top flight of the game to be of a higher quality as the premiership clubs will have more resources to draw form and keeps the clubs that were placed in the NSD to survive through their reserves association while also competing in a league of their own, with real rewards and glory to play for.

Will it be a hard bullet to bite for the clubs that get relegated to the NSD when it's formed? Yes it will, but true fans will follow the club and be passionate supporters regardless of what league that club plays in. The NSD being the bridge between pro and semipro would provide enough talent to be an exciting league to watch every week.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Why isnt it viable?

It isn't viable because the AFL NT's own scoping report said they'd be $15m short every year - on top of the $22.5m per year they'd expect from the AFL.

The AFL isn't a charity. Canberra has almost four times the population of Darwin. And that population is relatively wealthy. Canberra would actually get enough people attending and paying memberships to keep a team afloat.

Much stronger local leagues up there that in Canberra

I wouldn't say "much stronger". When the NEAFL was formed, the NT joined as a single entity. Canberra's entire top division joined (five teams).

Prior the creation of the NEAFL, the Swans Reserves played in AFL Canberra because it was the only nearby league strong enough to challenge their players.

I can't compare the leagues like-for-like, but "much stronger" is definitely a stretch. "Stronger" might also be a stretch. The NTFL also benefits playing in most leagues' off-seasons.

and far more participation.

Firstly, this isn't overly relevant for an AFL team. If the economics don't stack up (which they don't), it still doesn't matter how many players you have playing.

Secondly, Canberra actually has pretty decent participation. The are more men's teams in Canberra than there are in Darwin. I would say that overall participation wouldn't be that far behind the whole of the NT (obviously lower per capita).

 

[MortlockWatcher]

So 'used by' date is 25 .... .... who pays for an extra 180+ players ?

An AFL reserves comp would be a backwards step for the game.

In time, I reckon the AFL will force the state leagues to age cap and your Claremonts, Norwoods and Williamstowns will be just be as they are but under 25s and Under 18s and not seniors.

I agree that an AFL reserves comp is a backwards step, but they are hellbent on bringing it back, funding it from the upcoming TV deal.