Looking ahead to 2024

BuntonRules · Oct 29, 2023

SizeMatters said:
I'd have Lester over Gardiner to be honest. We can't have two shutdown type defenders but Lester is a leader and actually improved his offensive game a lot. Gardiner is probably the slightly better defender but his go to kick is a backwards/sideways kick to Andrews a lot of the time.

Lester's attacking game is something Gardiner is not capable of.

rye · Oct 29, 2023

i dont really see gardiner competing with lester

i see it as gardiner and payne competing for the lockdown defender role that frees andrews up. payne is probably a better intercept player but gardiner can play small better than payne if needed

and then doedee and lester competing for the third tall intercept / rebound defender role

SpecialBruce · Oct 29, 2023

I would hope neither Lester or Gardiner will be needed come finals next year

Berrygood · Oct 31, 2023

Darcy as the third tall, with Andrews and Payne nearly guarantees Andrews the ability to play an attacking intercepting role. I think we're better defensively freeing Andrews to be attacking than relying on Lester. And I do think we're underestimating Darcy's attacking ability. When he gets the ball with advantage he plays on or runs on to advantage looking to link up or clear deep. It's when he's held up and he's marked that he turns the ball back to Andrews or someone. I had noticed that towards the end of the season we were moving the ball a lot across the back line to find overlap so Darcy chipping it around isn't necessarily a problem.

Having said that, how entertaining would it be to see Dizzy bashing and crashing in the fwds, being a second skin on Moore or May. How annoying would he be, lol.

Dalions · Oct 31, 2023

M Malice · Nov 12, 2023

Any word on when the boys start their official pre Christmas training block, Mighty Lions ?

Haven't seen any social media stuff of the boys getting stuck into their private training and/or holiday snaps like in previous off seasons apart from Jarrod Berry training for a marathon, hopefully they all come back in great shape.

Mighty Lions · Nov 12, 2023

M Malice said:
Any word on when the boys start their official pre Christmas training block, Mighty Lions ?

Haven't seen any social media stuff of the boys getting stuck into their private training and/or holiday snaps like in previous off seasons apart from Jarrod Berry training for a marathon, hopefully they all come back in great shape.

All the boys (if they have a brain) have been unofficially training while on a break. The fitness guys gave each individual player a daily workout program to follow while they are away. Pre-season starts back on 4th December I believe but not 100% sure.

Mr Ripper · Nov 12, 2023

Young'uns are back on the 27th. Rumour has it.

Grasshopper17 · Nov 12, 2023

I love it when my YouTube feed knows what I want.

Check this out. This is how NFL teams are handling the league's best defences:

Now don't get me wrong, a good 70% of this I have no idea what he's talking about. But I understand the principle, and it goes back to something I remember Garry Lyon said one day back in the early 2000s when he was commentating on 3AW: "Constant movement is the key to good forward play".

The one thing I took out of this clip is that the league average in 2017 for any offensive player being in motion before the snap was 4% (ie 1 in 25 plays, very rare). This year tho Miami are doing it 59% of the time. That's more than half! A massive change, and a big reason why they lead the league for all of points scored, passing yards gained and total yards gained. They're also 2nd in rushing yards but those sorts of plays are not readily transferable to our game.

The passing game, however, is.

When I watch an NFL pass play (there are a heap of great ones in the video above), long but particularly the short ones, I see the future of our game. I see the way our forwards move inside 50 to create space for each other, and I see the mindset that can be utilised, and utilised far more easily further afield where the ground has more width.

Right now we know this as "unrewarded running". That is all about to change.

"Yeah but we kick it. We don't throw it"

True. But every time we take a mark, we have a guaranteed 7 seconds. Probably a second or two more once the man on the mark figures out what he wants to do. More again if they've decided to back back off the mark.

The ball carrier is not going to have 4 or 5 guys twice his size all trying to smash him. No quarterback, no matter how good his offensive line, knows whether he's going to have 5 seconds, or 0.5 seconds, every time he gets the ball. Our guys always know.

Then there's the flip side. When a quarterback throws the ball, his target is generally outnumbered. If he has a 5 man offensive line and a running back, this means he has only 5 men to throw to, against 6 or 7 defenders. The patterns they run (their "unrewarded running") is crucial in confusing defenders, and creating the space for the designated receiver to lead into.

Our guys will generally have one opponent each. If you take the man on the mark out of the equation, it's 17 on 17, and if the opposition wants to play a spare man a kick downfield, this gives us an outnumber closer to the kicker.

AND these guys all have to line up behind the ball before the snap, so they're all out of position. Our guys are already forward of the ball.

But Miami are now putting their guys in motion (laterally) BEFORE the snap. This is the same as when our commentators talk about guys being "on the move" at stoppages before it comes to the ruckmen. It creates chaos, guys get confused as to who they're supposed to be marking, and it only takes one bloke to get free and it's a goal. Look at Toby Greene's goal to beat Sydney in the final seconds this season. He created chaos and nobody knew who was on him.

A good defence will beat a good attack.

But I believe a GREAT ATTACK will beat a GREAT DEFENCE. And I believe that in Australian football, where we have spent 30 years having this defensive revolution, we are greatly under-utilising the most important asset any team has: the football.

It's immovable object vs irresistible force stuff. But the immovable object (the defence) doesn't have the advantage of movement and therefore momentum. It doesn't know exactly what the attack is going to be doing at any instant in time. It has to REACT: it can't PROACT.

Garry Lyon was right 20 years ago, and he's still right now, constant movement can pull apart any defensive setup. Like in the NFL (video above), it exposes whether a team wants to play zone or man-on-man. Better yet it can even force a team that wants to play zone to resort to one-on-one. Then it's simply a matter of picking it apart like finding holes in Swiss cheese. That's why teams don't want to play one-on-one any more.

I'm talking about putting methods in place like what we are seeing in the NFL, but all over the field. What I'm talking about might take 20 years to see implemented, but I believe that if you can take a mark or get a free kick (or the other team kicks a behind), your absolute WORST outcome should be an inside-25 entry.

We should be able to manipulate the defence in such a way that it gets completely pulled apart by ball movement. It only needs to be a metre here and a metre there, but over and over again it will drive a defence to distraction, and submission... Have a look at this:

With a series of quick passes he takes what is essentially a zone defence set up in front of him, and forces it to disintegrate into one-on-one, by compelling the opponents in front of him to mark specific players. Once that's done it's a simple matter of taking the space created in front of him. Imagine the guy with the ball is Conor McKenna in a Brisbane Lions guernsey.

Our sport has taken so much from basketball in the last 20-30 years. But I believe we have failed to take advantage of learning from strategic developments in other sports, like American football but particularly soccer, which arguably most closely resembles Australian football from a strategic sense.

Have a listen to this interview from last Friday with Stan Alves on Ron Barrassi. I had always wondered where the switch, originally a soccer tactic, came from... I should have known that just like "front and centre", it came from Ron.

There is so much more we can borrow from these sports, and I believe we are only scratching the surface right now with regards to ball movement. We started trying to do it in the second half of the season, Collingwood are probably a little way ahead, and I think Adelaide will really be one to watch out for on this front in 2024.

But it's all about motion, and constant motion, including, and ESPECIALLY, from guys who KNOW they aren't going to get the ball. And I'd love to see our guys be at the forefront of developing these strategies over the preseason and into 2024.

If you can take an uncontested mark, receive a free kick or force the opposition to kick a behind, the ball should not enter a contest again until the ball is within 25 metres of your goal. And that should be the worst case scenario.

M Malice · Nov 13, 2023

Grasshopper17 said:
I love it when my YouTube feed knows what I want.

Check this out. This is how NFL teams are handling the league's best defences:

Now don't get me wrong, a good 70% of this I have no idea what he's talking about. But I understand the principle, and it goes back to something I remember Garry Lyon said one day back in the early 2000s when he was commentating on 3AW: "Constant movement is the key to good forward play".

The one thing I took out of this clip is that the league average in 2022/3 for any offensive player being in motion before the snap was 4% (ie 1 in 25 plays, very rare). This year tho Miami are doing it 59% of the time. That's more than half! A massive change, and a big reason why they lead the league for both points scored, passing yards gained and total yards gained. They're also 2nd in rushing yards but those sorts of plays are not really transferable to our game.

The passing game, however, is.

When I watch an NFL pass play (there are a heap of great ones in the video above), long but particularly the short ones, I see the future of our game. I see the way our forwards move inside 50 to create space for each other, and I see the mindset that can be utilised, and utilised far more easily further afield where the ground has more width.

Right now we know this as "unrewarded running". That is all about to change.

"Yeah but we kick it. We don't throw it"

True. But every time we take a mark, we have a guaranteed 7 seconds. Probably a second or two more once the man on the mark figures out what he wants to do. More again if they've decided to back back off the mark.

The ball carrier is not going to have 4 or 5 guys twice his size all trying to smash him. No quarterback, no matter how good his offensive line, knows whether he's going to have 5 seconds, or 0.5 seconds, every time he gets the ball. Our guys always know.

Then there's the flip side. When a quarterback throws the ball, his target is generally outnumbered. If he has a 5 man offensive line and a running back, this means he has only 5 men to throw to, against 6 or 7 defenders. The patterns they run (their "unrewarded running") is crucial in confusing defenders, and creating the space for the designated receiver to lead into.

Our guys will generally have one opponent each. If you take the man on the mark out of the equation, it's 17 on 17, and if the opposition wants to play a spare man a kick downfield, this gives us an outnumber closer to the kicker.

AND these guys all have to line up behind the ball before the snap, so they're all out of position. Our guys are already forward of the ball.

But Miami are now putting their guys in motion (laterally) BEFORE the snap. This is the same as when our commentators talk about guys being "on the move" at stoppages before it comes to the ruckmen. It creates chaos, guys get confused as to who they're supposed to be marking, and it only takes one bloke to get free and it's a goal. Look at Toby Greene's goal to beat Sydney in the final seconds this season. He created chaos and nobody knew who was on him.

A good defence will beat a good attack.

But I believe a GREAT ATTACK will beat a GREAT DEFENCE. And I believe that in Australian football, where we have spent 30 years having this defensive revolution, we are greatly under-utilising the most important asset any team has: the football.

It's immovable object vs irresistible force stuff. But the immovable object (the defence) doesn't have the advantage of movement. It doesn't know exactly what the attack is going to be doing at any instant in time. It has to REACT: it can't PROACT.

Garry Lyon was right 20 years ago, and he's still right now, constant movement can pull apart any defensive setup. Like in the NFL (video above), it exposes whether a team wants to play zone or man-on-man. Better yet it can even force a team that wants to play zone to resort to one-on-one. Then it's simply a matter of picking it apart like finding holes in Swiss cheese. That's why teams don't want to play one-on-one any more.

I'm talking about putting methods in place like what we are seeing in the NFL, but all over the field. What I'm talking about might take 20 years to see implemented, but I believe that if you can take a mark or get a free kick (or the other team kicks a behind), your absolute WORST outcome should be an inside-25 entry.

We should be able to manipulate the defence in such a way that it gets completely pulled apart by ball movement. It only needs to be a metre here and a metre there, but over and over again it will drive a defence to distraction, and submission... Have a look at this:

With a series of quick passes he takes what is essentially a zone defence set up in front of him, and forces it to disintegrate into one-on-one, by forcing the opponents in front of him to mark specific players. Once that's done it's a simple matter of creating the space created in front of him. Imagine Luca Modric is Conor McKenna in a Brisbane Lions guernsey.

Our sport has taken so much from basketball in the last 20-30 years. But I believe we have failed to take advantage of learning from strategic developments in other sports, like American football but particularly soccer, which arguably most closely resembles Australian football from a strategic sense.

Have a listen to this interview from last Friday with Stan Alves on Ron Barrassi. I had always wondered where the switch, originally a soccer tactic, came from... I should have known that just like "front and centre", it came from Ron.

There is so much more we can borrow from these sports, and I believe we are only scratching the surface right now with regards to ball movement. We started trying to do it in the second half of the season, Collingwood are probably a little way ahead, and I think Adelaide will really be one to watch out for on this front in 2024.

But it's all about motion, and constant motion, including, and ESPECIALLY, from guys who KNOW they aren't going to get the ball. And I'd love to see our guys be at the forefront of developing these strategies over the preseason and into 2024.

If you can take an uncontested mark, receive a free kick or force the opposition to kick a behind, the ball should not enter a contest again until the ball is within 25 metres of your goal. And that should be the worst case scenario.

Love your analysis of and ideas for our great game G17, long may in continue. :thumbsu:

I hope you send this type of stuff on to the Lions.

Section 5 · Nov 13, 2023

Fox article on premiership window teams.

Struggler leading rebuild race; is runner-up running out of time? AFL flag windows

www.foxsports.com.au

BRISBANE LIONS

3rd oldest and 4th most experienced list entering 2024 - Lost Grand Final (17-6)

There’s a slight misconception out there, and maybe those numbers above only add to it, that the Lions are going to miss their window if they don’t win a flag quickly. While they’re clearly ready to win one, that belief is driven by how quickly they rose under Chris Fagan - because they’ve been getting better while still challenging for the top four every year. It’s only really 2024 where core members of this group are starting to exit their primes; Lachie Neale turns 31 in May, while Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron turn 30 next year. But they’re still bringing young superstar talent through the doors, with Kiddy Coleman and Will Ashcroft emerging last season, and Levi Ashcroft coming soon, so it’s not like they’re sacrificing their draft hand every year to be this good. They at least have a couple more years until some awkward questions may need to be asked.

Premiership window: 2024-26

rye · Nov 13, 2023

Section 5 said:
Fox article on premiership window teams.

Struggler leading rebuild race; is runner-up running out of time? AFL flag windows

Struggler leading rebuild race; is runner-up running out of time? AFL flag windows

www.foxsports.com.au

BRISBANE LIONS

3rd oldest and 4th most experienced list entering 2024 - Lost Grand Final (17-6)

There’s a slight misconception out there, and maybe those numbers above only add to it, that the Lions are going to miss their window if they don’t win a flag quickly. While they’re clearly ready to win one, that belief is driven by how quickly they rose under Chris Fagan - because they’ve been getting better while still challenging for the top four every year. It’s only really 2024 where core members of this group are starting to exit their primes; Lachie Neale turns 31 in May, while Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron turn 30 next year. But they’re still bringing young superstar talent through the doors, with Kiddy Coleman and Will Ashcroft emerging last season, and Levi Ashcroft coming soon, so it’s not like they’re sacrificing their draft hand every year to be this good. They at least have a couple more years until some awkward questions may need to be asked.

Premiership window: 2024-26

i feel like how long we can realistically compete for a flag depends on how many years daniher can play for. he is arguably our most important structural piece or a clear second to andrews, and finding a replacement of his caliber would be extremely difficult from the draft whilst at the top end of the ladder. hopefully the years where he basically did not play any footy at all at essendon means he still has more to give than most key forwards do once they hit 30.

Nathan Barley · Nov 13, 2023

rye said:
i feel like how long we can realistically compete for a flag depends on how many years daniher can play for. he is arguably our most important structural piece or a clear second to andrews, and finding a replacement of his caliber would be extremely difficult from the draft whilst at the top end of the ladder. hopefully the years where he basically did not play any footy at all at essendon means he still has more to give than most key forwards do once they hit 30.

I get the impression it's more how many more years Joe wants to play

twhowler · Nov 13, 2023

ag

rye said:
i feel like how long we can realistically compete for a flag depends on how many years daniher can play for. he is arguably our most important structural piece or a clear second to andrews, and finding a replacement of his caliber would be extremely difficult from the draft whilst at the top end of the ladder. hopefully the years where he basically did not play any footy at all at essendon means he still has more to give than most key forwards do once they hit 30.

agree. hence my new obsession with getting him the hell out of the ruck

rye · Nov 13, 2023

Nathan Barley said:
I get the impression it's more how many more years Joe wants to play

this year his demeanor looked a lot more serious and determined whilst still enjoying his footy, so hopefully he keeps rediscovering his love and desire for the game. fingers crossed it makes him more likely to elongate his career

rye · Nov 13, 2023

twhowler said:
ag

agree. hence my new obsession with getting him the hell out of the ruck

its a tricky situation. it exposes him to a greater injury risk, but at the same time some of his best play this year was when he was doing ruck work and almost functioning as an extra midfielder in play. his performance against melbourne at the mcg for example was remarkable, and he basically won the game for us against fremantle in perth with his follow up efforts in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter.

if we intend to stick with 2 talls in the forward line like how we structured up in finals, i think daniher has to be the ruck chop out. just dont see hipwood being able to break even with opposition rucks and then get involved in general play like daniher can.

McIvor · Nov 13, 2023

rye said:
its a tricky situation. it exposes him to a greater injury risk, but at the same time some of his best play this year was when he was doing ruck work and almost functioning as an extra midfielder in play. his performance against melbourne at the mcg for example was remarkable, and he basically won the game for us against fremantle in perth with his follow up efforts in the last few minutes of the fourth quarter.

if we intend to stick with 2 talls in the forward line like how we structured up in finals, i think daniher has to be the ruck chop out. just dont see hipwood being able to break even with opposition rucks and then get involved in general play like daniher can.

I think I read or heard that Joe really wanted to play second ruck to get more involved in the game at times and whilst his centre ruck work at times leaves a bit to be desired, his impact this year was first class. Don’t need to say anything more about his forward work either; he was brilliant, les the goalkicking too, not sure how anyone could criticise his attitude, workrate and overall season this year.

More of that in 24 Big Joe; love what he brings to this team.

M Malice · Nov 13, 2023

rye said:
i feel like how long we can realistically compete for a flag depends on how many years daniher can play for. he is arguably our most important structural piece or a clear second to andrews, and finding a replacement of his caliber would be extremely difficult from the draft whilst at the top end of the ladder. hopefully the years where he basically did not play any footy at all at essendon means he still has more to give than most key forwards do once they hit 30.

We need an elite KPF to come through our academy in the next couple of years, IIRC there is one coming ie Charlie Hewitt who I know is highly rated by at lest one poster on the draft board, not sure what year he is eligible.

Warwick · Nov 13, 2023

M Malice said:
We need an elite KPF to come through our academy in the next couple of years, IIRC there is one coming ie Charlie Hewitt who I know is highly rated by at lest one poster on the draft board, not sure what year he is eligible.

I tend not to get too excited by KPPs a few years out from their draft year. So many of them don’t go on.

Still waiting for Kobe Tozer and Austin Lucy to make their mark.

Dalions · Nov 13, 2023

Warwick said:
I tend not to get too excited by KPPs a few years out from their draft year. So many of them don’t go on.

Still waiting for Kobe Tozer and Austin Lucy to make their mark.

Never even heard of Austin Lucy?

StevoJenkins · Nov 13, 2023

M Malice said:
We need an elite KPF to come through our academy in the next couple of years, IIRC there is one coming ie Charlie Hewitt who I know is highly rated by at lest one poster on the draft board, not sure what year he is eligible.

Had a look at some scouting notes from the Lions v. Sydney Academy game, found this:

briztoon · Nov 13, 2023

M Malice said:
We need an elite KPF to come through our academy in the next couple of years, IIRC there is one coming ie Charlie Hewitt who I know is highly rated by at lest one poster on the draft board, not sure what year he is eligible.

Next year.

lionshine · Nov 13, 2023

Does anyone see Noah Answerth fitting back in?

Dalions · Nov 13, 2023

lionshine said:
Does anyone see Noah Answerth fitting back in?

Probably only through injury.

M Malice · Nov 13, 2023

lionshine said:
Does anyone see Noah Answerth fitting back in?

Maybe for Ah Chee in a slightly different role?

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