Looking ahead

[Malifice]

Assuming we traded (Hampson + 1st rounder) for (Roughy + second rounder)

Line up 2011:

B: Army, Jamison, Thornton
HB: Bower, Waite, Russell
C: Simpson, McLean, Gibbs
HF: Lucas, Henderson, Houlihan
F: Yarran, Roughead, Betts

R: Kruezer, Judd, Murphy

I: Warnock, Carrazzo, Scotland, Joseph

Looks pretty good IMO.

 

[shell23]

Cant wait until the trading period we are loaded

 

[Malifice]

I think Hampson, Thornton and a first rounder is more like what you'd have to pay for a forward as highly rated as Roughead. I'm not a huge fan personally but he has had a nice career so far and the pelican is one of the most unreasonable blokes to deal with as far as trades go.

Why?

Way over the odds.

If he announces he is leaving for GC17, we dont have to pay what he is worth, we just have to pay more than the AFL compensation pick.

 

[Sin City]

Why?

Way over the odds.

If he announces he is leaving for GC17, we dont have to pay what he is worth, we just have to pay more than the AFL compensation pick.

To start with it's not over the odds for a bloke who has played in a premiership, kicked 75 goals in a season, been taken at number 2 in the draft and is just about to enter the prime of his career. Thornton and Hampson are both out of the senior team at the moment and the first round pick will be more like 20 this year, plus all the good young players GC have already signed means it's worth more like 25-30.

Secondly, dealing with the pelican is like trying to trade with Collingwood or reason with Embers about West Coast players. He's completely unreasonable and impossible to work with.

 

[Malifice]

To start with it's not over the odds for a bloke who has played in a premiership, kicked 75 goals in a season, been taken at number 2 in the draft and is just about to enter the prime of his career.

Ordinarily I would agree with you.

But this year (if he walks) we dont have to pay what he is worth.

We just have to offer a better deal than the AFL compensation pick (a 1st rounder that can only be taken in 2 years time, must be announced in advance at the start of the season, and is granted immediately after that teams first 1st round selection that year).

You're the Hawks. Roughy tells you he is leaving for better $$$. Do you:

a) Let him walk to the GC and accept that compensation pick (knowing in all likleyhood the Hawks are going to finish high on the ladder for the 5 year window - and in an 18 team competition -that the pick is valid for)?

or

b) Accept a 1st rounder (that can be used now) from Carlton, and Shaun Hampson (former pick 17 Ruckman)?

The Hawks consider thier premiership window 'open' at the moment. They wont want to wait 2 years to use a (likley high) pick.

I reckon they would take the better deal (top notch Ruckman and 1st rounder now).

Thornton and Hampson are both out of the senior team at the moment and the first round pick will be more like 20 this year,

We finish 8th we get pick 18.

18 + Hammer (now), or wait till 2012 when there are 18 sides in the comp and take the additional 1st rounder then.

As another (controversial) option we could simply offer Gibbs in a straight swap.

plus all the good young players GC have already signed means it's worth more like 25-30.

Doesnt work that way.

Those pre-signed kids they have already signed dont count for this year.

They get picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15 and the 1st pick of the second and subsequesnt rounds this year plus those pre-signed kids.

Its terrifying.

Secondly, dealing with the pelican is like trying to trade with Collingwood or reason with Embers about West Coast players. He's completely unreasonable and impossible to work with.

They traded a bit last year.

 

[Sin City]

Ordinarily I would agree with you.

But this year (if he walks) we dont have to pay what he is worth.

We just have to offer a better deal than the AFL compensation pick (a 1st rounder that can only be taken in 2 years time, must be announced in advance at the start of the season, and is granted immediately after that teams first 1st round selection that year).

You're the Hawks. Roughy tells you he is leaving for better $$$. Do you:

a) Let him walk to the GC and accept that compensation pick (knowing in all likleyhood the Hawks are going to finish high on the ladder for the 5 year window - and in an 18 team competition -that the pick is valid for)?

or

b) Accept a 1st rounder (that can be used now) from Carlton, and Shaun Hampson (former pick 17 Ruckman)?

The Hawks consider thier premiership window 'open' at the moment. They wont want to wait 2 years to use a (likley high) pick.

I reckon they would take the better deal (top notch Ruckman and 1st rounder now).



We finish 8th we get pick 18.

18 + Hammer (now), or wait till 2012 when there are 18 sides in the comp and take the additional 1st rounder then.

Another club would swoop on him that would offer something a lot more reasonable. The Hawks would laugh if we offered them such a poor deal.

Otherwise they would just let him walk to GC, knowing that they would sink very low over the next few years and that first round pick they got compensated with would become a very high pick by 2013.

Doesnt work that way.

Those pre-signed kids they have already signed dont count for this year.

They get picks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15 and the 1st pick of the second and subsequesnt rounds this year plus those pre-signed kids.

Its terrifying.

That's my point. Weller, Russell etc all would've been first rounders if they were available in this draft. A player selected at 20 this year is more like the 30th best player from the draft. Our pick will more likely have the value of pick 25.

They traded a bit last year.

The guy is a clown, his history shows this. he is impossible to deal with.

 

[Malifice]

Another club would swoop on him that would offer something a lot more reasonable. The Hawks would laugh if we offered them such a poor deal.

If another club entered negotiations then it would get intresting.

Of course Roughead would want to play for that club, AND they would have to be able to pay his salary he wants.

Rules out Geelong, Saints, Dogs, Pies, Hawks and the Lions.

You can scrub Melbourne, the Tigers and North (all broke or paying the full cap or both) and most of the interstate clubs based on those critereon as well.

I doubt there is another club with equal spare $$$, cap wiggle room, players and picks to trade, and with as great a promise of future success as Carlton.

Essendon is probably the only other club that could mount a reasonable case. Possibly WCE as well.

Of course if he 'nominated' either CFC or GC17 as his desired club(s), I doubt other clubs would get involved. That appears to be the convention nowadays.

Otherwise they would just let him walk to GC, knowing that they would sink very low over the next few years and that first round pick they got compensated with would become a very high pick by 2013.

If the Hawks think that a compensation pick in an 18 team competiton - and not even useable for a few years - is worth more than a (1st rounder + Hammer NOW) then of course they could say piss off and just let him walk to the GC.

My point is that we dont need to pay his worth in the trade.

We just need to trump the compensation pick (which I value at around pick 10).

 

[Sin City]

Better to give up a player who's loss we can cover than to miss out on a player that could help us to a flag.

 

[Malifice]

Better to give up a player who's loss we can cover than to miss out on a player that could help us to a flag.

Agree.

As ive said, id be prepared for a straight swap in 'normal' circumstances: Gibbs for Roughead.

Would free up even more cash for Roughy, would trump anything anyone else could offer, and we can easily cover the loss of Gibbs.

As another (hypothetical) solution:

Trade Hammer (contracted) to GC for pick 9.

On trade pick 9 + (Thornton or Jacobs or our first rounder at pick 18ish) to the Hawks for Roughy.

Much better value for the Hawks than the AFL compensation pick.

We lose Hampson and (our 1st rounder or Thornton or Jacobs).

We gain Roughead.

 

[Sin City]

Still not sure that's better than the compensation pick given that pick 9 this year will only get probably the 15th best player of his year and so on with our pick. Still think we'd have to give a bit more than that to land him given that by 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks pick will be a top 5 pick in a concession free draft.

 

[thylacine60]

Jesus, MalPal, you do my head in. How do you keep track of all these permutations and calculations? I'd offer an opinion but I have absolutely no idea where to start. Hope you put all this number crunching and future player manoeuvring to good use and financial benefit somehow. Well played regardless.

 

[Malifice]

by 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks pick will be a top 5 pick in a concession free draft.

Big fall from grace there.

Thats a bottom 4 finish in an 18 team competition just 2 and a half years from now.

I reckon the Hawks see it more along the lines of their window being open around this time (most of their best players aged 26-30 in 2013).

 

[Sin City]

Big fall from grace there.

Thats a bottom 4 finish in an 18 team competition just 2 and a half years from now.

I reckon the Hawks see it more along the lines of their window being open around this time (most of their best players aged 26-30 in 2013).

Reckon they're about stuffed. They've lost guys like Crawford, Croad, Dew and anyone that dared play ruck. Recruits like Burgoyne and Gibson aren't looking good and guys like Ellis haven't really come on. They missed the finals last year and they've started this year pretty bad as well. If they lose Roughead from their forward line, with an already poor backline and selection of rucks, they're in big trouble.

 

[Malifice]

Reckon they're about stuffed. They've lost guys like Crawford, Croad, Dew and anyone that dared play ruck.

And retained:

Lewis, Mitchell, Rioli, Ellis, Sewell, Birchall, Bateman, Hodge, Franklin, Roughead and Brown.

The class of 2001 and 2004 are still around and performing strongly. Their second stringers are pretty handy as well.

Hence the salary cap concerns they have at the moment.

Losing Dew was no biggie, he did what he was recruited to do. Crawford left a big hole (that they should have recruited Cousins to fill but didnt due to <issues we cant discuss for legal reasons>).

The loss of Croad and zero Rucks is a major issue. KPP players and Rucks take time (generally) to mature.

Hence why I reckon they would look long and hard at an offer of a young but developed KPP defender or Ruckman (or both) should they find themselves in the unenviable position of Roughead walking out for $$$.

Take advantage of the window before it shuts.

They missed the finals last year and they've started this year pretty bad as well.

Injuries, no rucks and a shit defence.

Two of those things they have control over.

If they lose Roughead from their forward line, with an already poor backline and selection of rucks, they're in big trouble.

I wouldnt call a forward line containing Buddy Franklin and Cyril Rioli to be in 'big trouble'

 

[Sin City]

And retained:

Lewis, Mitchell, Rioli, Ellis, Sewell, Birchall, Bateman, Hodge, Franklin, Roughead and Brown.

The class of 2001 and 2004 are still around and performing strongly. Their second stringers are pretty handy as well.

Hence the salary cap concerns they have at the moment.

Losing Dew was no biggie, he did what he was recruited to do. Crawford left a big hole (that they should have recruited Cousins to fill but didnt due to <issues we cant discuss for legal reasons>).

The loss of Croad and zero Rucks is a major issue. KPP players and Rucks take time (generally) to mature.

Hence why I reckon they would look long and hard at an offer of a young but developed KPP defender or Ruckman (or both) should they find themselves in the unenviable position of Roughead walking out for $$$.

Take advantage of the window before it shuts.

Not enough for a decent team. Ellis hasn't come on, Birchall, Franklin, Brown and Batemen have all gone backwards and you've included Roughead while this discussion is about him leaving them. Franklin still good as are Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell, Sewell and Rioli when injury free.

Injuries, no rucks and a shit defence.

Two of those things they have control over.

They had a full team for the last half of last year and still couldn't even get in the 8. They even had a chance in the last week and couldn't even do it. Everyone, including themselves have massively over rated them.

I wouldnt call a forward line containing Buddy Franklin and Cyril Rioli to be in 'big trouble'

I would, Franklin has gone backwards since 2008 and the loss of Roughead would mean he gets more attention from defenders. They'll need more than Rioli, who is a bit injury prone, to carry them when he's down.

 

[HARKER]

Jesus, MalPal, you do my head in. How do you keep track of all these permutations and calculations? I'd offer an opinion but I have absolutely no idea where to start. Hope you put all this number crunching and future player manoeuvring to good use and financial benefit somehow. Well played regardless.

Mal's a player manager based in Perth
Easy work for the Hoff

 

[Malifice]

They had a full team for the last half of last year and still couldn't even get in the 8. They even had a chance in the last week and couldn't even do it. Everyone, including themselves have massively over rated them.

Even if thats the case, and they are overrated, do you think they would accept a trade that gives them a shot at the flag in the next few years before their window shuts or bite the bullet and start rebuilding?

I reckon they would take the former.

Franklin has gone backwards since 2008

Big call.

I conceed he was down on form from 2008 last year ('only' 67.46 from 21 games), but then again the whole side was down on form from 2008 last year.

I wouldnt be writing him off just yet.

 

[Sin City]

Even if thats the case, and they are overrated, do you think they would accept a trade that gives them a shot at the flag in the next few years before their window shuts or bite the bullet and start rebuilding?

I reckon they would take the former.

I don't see how any of the trades suggested would be the difference between a team not good enough for the top 8 and a shot at a flag. I think they'll do a mini rebuild and try and have another crack in a few years before Hodge and Mitchell are gone.

Big call.

I conceed he was down on form from 2008 last year ('only' 67.46 from 21 games), but then again the whole side was down on form from 2008 last year.

I wouldnt be writing him off just yet.

Him and the team have also had a terrible start to this year. This has gone longer than a form slump, they've now gone backwards.

 

[Malifice]

I don't see how any of the trades suggested would be the difference between a team not good enough for the top 8 and a shot at a flag. I think they'll do a mini rebuild and try and have another crack in a few years before Hodge and Mitchell are gone.

Accepting a mid range (at best) 1st round pick that cant be used until 2013 doesnt achieve this goal IMO.

Surely they would be better off asking for 2 1st rounders (or a 1st rounder and a 1st round equivallent ruckman in Hampson) this year?

Him and the team have also had a terrible start to this year. This has gone longer than a form slump, they've now gone backwards.

Still think its a big call to write them off.

While they are playing well below what they are capable of, there are reasons beyond simply a drop in form for the Hawks recent demise (injuries havent been kind for one, and they are still a few key personell away).

 

[Sin City]

Accepting a mid range (at best) 1st round pick that cant be used until 2013 doesnt achieve this goal IMO.

Surely they would be better off asking for 2 1st rounders (or a 1st rounder and a 1st round equivallent ruckman in Hampson) this year?

I reckon with the way they'd struggle it would be their own pick plus the compensation pick giving them two picks between 5-8. Pretty good start for a mini rebuild hey.

Still think its a big call to write them off.

While they are playing well below what they are capable of, there are reasons beyond simply a drop in form for the Hawks recent demise (injuries havent been kind for one, and they are still a few key personell away).

They've lost quite a few players, will lose a few more, injuries have taken their toll and their game plan has well and truly been worked out thankfully, because it was awful to watch. I don't think the current list has enough strings to their bow to push the good teams anymore.

 

[Malifice]

I reckon with the way they'd struggle it would be their own pick plus the compensation pick giving them two picks between 5-8. Pretty good start for a mini rebuild hey.

Not really.

It banks on the Hawks finishing in the bottom quarter of the ladder in 2013, and knowing they are going to finish in the bottom quarter of the ladder in 2013 (they have to nominate 2013 as the year they want to use the pick at the start of the season).

Even if this scenario does eventuate, come the start of the 2014 season they would have 2 x 18 year old 1st rounders with zero experience, and most of the rest of their best players over 30. By the time those players mature, the class of 2001 would be long retired, and Franklin and co would be the guys pushing 30.

They think (rightly or wrongly) that their window is currently 'open' and its only injuries (and a few key players in defenders and rucks) really holding them back.

I reckon they would prefer those picks now. I also reckon they would jump at a gun young Ruck like Hampson, and a key defender in the mold of Hurley if they had half a chance.

But we can agree to disagree.

They've lost quite a few players, will lose a few more, injuries have taken their toll and their game plan has well and truly been worked out thankfully, because it was awful to watch.

It worked though.

I don't think the current list has enough strings to their bow to push the good teams anymore.

I disagree mate.

Geelong and the Dogs are due to fall any time now. The Saints and Pies not long after.

Reckon the Hawks have a few years left before it crashes down.