Universal Love Holding Faith in Stephen Wells and Mackie (a.k.a. "In Wells We Trust")

[goyoucatters]

It's very, very, very rare though. The hit rate is extremely slim.

I imagine we would all concede that there are other 'overlooked players' since 2000 apart from Mitchell, Stokes and Taylor who have proved to be very capable AFL players once they eventually made their way onto a list.

But if we simply started with them as a sample set, that would be three players out of well over 1,000 drafted by all clubs during that same period.

On that basis, I think your 'very, very, very rare' is pretty much right on the money.

 

[Turbocat]

There's a pretty clear exponential decline in chances of identifying quality talent in the draft as you draft later. Logically speaking it makes sense and I've seen it graphed with means making a pretty compelling argument. Really the draft points chart is a pretty accurate reflection of this and I'd guess we've had the lowest total points allocated in the last decade. No disputing Wells hasn't had a lot to work with but we were a top 4 side last year and likely will be again this year.

It changes a bit depending on type and the quantity available. There is a reason why KPF mostly come from early picks.

 

[dazbroncos]

There are a few of these threads, but this seems the largest so far....

Seems after the last few years Wells and co has not had the greatest amount ammo to work with given PFD, Hendo, 2E et al dont come cheap.

And he's had some misses too. But with that come some wins.

And after the weekend and taking into consideration the last 3 years... Sav, Menegola, Buzza, Stewart, Kelly, Fog, Constable, Miers, Crameri, there is grounds to say he/they have got some right. Long way to go still and one game doth not make a career - but its good to see for mine.

Go Catters

 

[Strange Cat]

Wells deserves a statue outside of KP along with Cook...I can also say with all honesty every single club in the AFL would kill to have him in charge of their picks.

 

[Warhorse]

Wells had a average period between 2010-2015 but has come back strong again.

He nailed the 2017 draft. The previous draft he nailed would have been 2009. We would have built a premiership around that draft if it wasnt for injuries.

 

[Frank Bunn]

There are a few of these threads, but this seems the largest so far....

Seems after the last few years Wells and co has not had the greatest amount ammo to work with given PFD, Hendo, 2E et al dont come cheap.

And he's had some misses too. But with that come some wins.

And after the weekend and taking into consideration the last 3 years... Sav, Menegola, Buzza, Stewart, Kelly, Fog, Constable, Miers, Crameri, there is grounds to say he/they have got some right. Long way to go still and one game doth not make a career - but its good to see for mine.

Go Catters

Plus 'Parfeet'.

 

[MacStradbroke]

As bad as the Hawkins being irrelevant thread this is.

 

[Turbocat]

There are a few of these threads, but this seems the largest so far....

Seems after the last few years Wells and co has not had the greatest amount ammo to work with given PFD, Hendo, 2E et al dont come cheap.

And he's had some misses too. But with that come some wins.

And after the weekend and taking into consideration the last 3 years... Sav, Menegola, Buzza, Stewart, Kelly, Fog, Constable, Miers, Crameri, there is grounds to say he/they have got some right. Long way to go still and one game doth not make a career - but its good to see for mine.

Go Catters

Im not sure what the analogy is for the draft king .....

to some degree the coach is like a F1 driver or a jockey on the horse..his job is to get the most out what he has under him ... good jockey can not make a slow horse fast etc... but he doesn't waste chances. Wells is something more like a Farmer manager buying seed..all he can do is give the best seed he can to the farm hands. Is it his fault if locusts come or if there is a drought? If the hand puts all the water and sun and feed he can into it and it doesn't grow ... dud seed.

So yes he has misses its to be expected... sometimes it was his selection , sometimes its was development sometimes it was just bad luck..guys like Brown were ordinary selections when looking back purely because it has taken so long before he was able to perform at the level. So I can see why he has skew his picks a bit more to play now.

When they are selected so young , and the picks are late all Wells can do is give the best raw product with the best potential for upside if it all develops as anticipated.

So to some degree , the role of draft guru probably gets over played .. that idiot Brain Taylor is probably to some degree right .. "the Footy factory" he says and its a bit like that because the draft guru can pick the right player and if the club just doesn't develop its players then he gets plenty of blame especially when player he passed over are going great guns at other clubs... idiot why didn't he pick that other player instead of no talent johnny thats not even getting a game...

Yet when he is picking late ..he is calling names that most others have gone past multiple times. Are they blind ..or does he see something they do not. Somewhere in there his eye for green talent and what a player might be is obviously special ... the more obvious the pick the less Wells stands out...I have often said that guys on Big Footy could pick the first 10-20 ... but the late it gets the better he gets.

Go back and have a look who we would have picked with our picks last year.. there were a few of us saying Kelly or for mine Constable but he is the one who has to go past the rest and call his name. Did any of us have Fogerty with our first pick? Whats was it 3 players from last years list management period in the side R1.. amazing .. no , just another year for Wells.

 

[CatRiot]

Wells had a average period between 2010-2015 but has come back strong again.

He nailed the 2017 draft. The previous draft he nailed would have been 2009. We would have built a premiership around that draft if it wasnt for injuries.

I think what was great about last year, he didn't seem to reach with those early picks. The ready made players in Stewart, Kelly and Menegola are all best 22; even Ruggles wasn't a bad option with a late pick. Also, picking up someone like Zuthrie, who looked under-sized and barely talked about in the draft, but looking behind his stats sheet and he was consistently in the team best votes at U18 TAC level. I think with some of those rookie picks, going for the kids that get consistently in the team best is a good starting point.

 

[dazbroncos]

Tim Kelly
Jack Henry
Tom Stewart
GHS
Lachie Fogarty
Sam Menegola
Jed Bews
Sav Rat
Brandan Parfitt
James Parsons.

With a limited amount of picks and supply... reckon he's sitting back with the robe, pipe and ricking chair at the Ponderosa with a fair knowing smile right now.

And that list does not have Constable, Miers or Crameri in it yet.

Go Catters

 

[calder_daddy]

Tim Kelly
Jack Henry
Tom Stewart
GHS
Lachie Fogarty
Sam Menegola
Jed Bews
Sav Rat
Brandan Parfitt
James Parsons.

With a limited amount of picks and supply... reckon he's sitting back with the robe, pipe and ricking chair at the Ponderosa with a fair knowing smile right now.

And that list does not have Constable, Miers or Crameri in it yet.

Go Catters

I’ll add a couple to your list
Zuthrie
Cunico

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Tim Kelly
Jack Henry
Tom Stewart
GHS
Lachie Fogarty
Sam Menegola
Jed Bews
Sav Rat
Brandan Parfitt
James Parsons.

With a limited amount of picks and supply... reckon he's sitting back with the robe, pipe and ricking chair at the Ponderosa with a fair knowing smile right now.

And that list does not have Constable, Miers or Crameri in it yet.

Go Catters

Add Zuthrie.
Considering no picks inside 55 in 15 and no top 20 picks in 16 or 17 he has done outstandingly well.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Tim Kelly
Jack Henry
Tom Stewart
GHS
Lachie Fogarty
Sam Menegola
Jed Bews
Sav Rat
Brandan Parfitt
James Parsons.

With a limited amount of picks and supply... reckon he's sitting back with the robe, pipe and ricking chair at the Ponderosa with a fair knowing smile right now.

And that list does not have Constable, Miers or Crameri in it yet.

Go Catters

Way too early to tell on the bolded. They've started okay, but a lot of picks we would now consider busts started out well too.

Also I'd hardly consider GHS a success.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Sure a long wait to go but Fogarty looks so good. Speaks well too could be a future leader at the club.

 

[Son_Of_God29]

Ladies & Gentleman as the OP of this thread I will admit.............I WAS VERY VERY WRONG

 

[dazbroncos]

Ladies & Gentleman as the OP of this thread I will admit.............I WAS VERY VERY WRONG

It think there was a period where some injuries and the odd "who" had us thinking that, but id also say he's got whatever groove was waning back in full swing.

Still early and injuries can happen at any time, but its looking very promising.

GO Catters

 

[year of the cat]

Got to now say I was wrong about his 2016 draft. Parfitt, Ratugolea and Stewart have been great additions. I still hold out hope for Narkle too if he can get his body right.

The 2017 looked to be an inspired one straight after the draft and those thoughts have got early vindication. Fogarty and Kelly are two of the top 10 draftees so far. Constable will be very good also.

 

[iameviljez]

It changes a bit depending on type and the quantity available. There is a reason why KPF mostly come from early picks.

Totally agree - and it's not just early picks, it's often VERY early picks.

I think the Tambling-Deledio/Buddy-Roughead draft did really swing that. Clubs came to realise that getting key forwards set your team up for the next ten years in a way that midfielders can't.

We've also usually entered the draft somewhere between 15 and 25 - a far cry from anywhere within the top ten.

 

[Turbocat]

Totally agree - and it's not just early picks, it's often VERY early picks.

I think the Tambling-Deledio/Buddy-Roughead draft did really swing that. Clubs came to realise that getting key forwards set your team up for the next ten years in a way that midfielders can't.

We've also usually entered the draft somewhere between 15 and 25 - a far cry from anywhere within the top ten.

Hawthorn had a tall focus at that time of rebuild. It worked with Roughhead and Buddy but it blew up in their face the two drafts after that. It basically cost them Joel Selwood. Imagine Selwood in the side the last 10 years. It sort of make me sick.

I will say this in the last 12 months (that comment was 2017) ..its become more apparent that the KPFs picked early , or those that standout in tac may not be the true quality they seem. Id say we will see more young KPF picked early from SA and WA ..when they have been playing against strong opponents. Ive like Fogerty for the Crows for eg.

There is no doubt having a few single figure picks drafted on your list helps.(if they are the right ones) The issue is not having enough single figure picks. One year (unless a side is very lucky) is not enough. We were lucky on our last rebuild as we never draft talls with the single figure picks.

Sort of a side issue .. I read Max King did some sort of knee injury yesterday. That will complicate some teams drafting if its serious.

 

[MacStradbroke]

Way too early to tell on the bolded. They've started okay, but a lot of picks we would now consider busts started out well too.

Also I'd hardly consider GHS a success.

No it's not to early to make a call on Henry and particularly Fogarty....if you have a healthy pair of eyes on you. His recruiting lately has been excellent. I remember reading last year a lot of anger on here about not selecting Sam Taylor or Tom McCartin, well I guess that's why Wells is the expert and most of us enjoy supporting a team that continues to remain relevant, and exciting. Fogarty and Kelly picks are huge for the club.

 

[MacStradbroke]

Hawthorn had a tall focus at that time of rebuild. It worked with Roughhead and Buddy but it blew up in their face the two drafts after that. It basically cost them Joel Selwood. Imagine Selwood in the side the last 10 years. It sort of make me sick.

I will say this in the last 12 months (that comment was 2017) ..its become more apparent that the KPFs picked early , or those that standout in tac may not be the true quality they seem. Id say we will see more young KPF picked early from SA and WA ..when they have been playing against strong opponents. Ive like Fogerty for the Crows for eg.

The re is no doubt having a few single figure picks drafted on your list helps.(if they are the right ones) The issue is not having enough single figure picks. One year (unless a side is very lucky) is not enough. We were lucky on our last rebuild as we never draft talls with the single figure picks.

Sort of a side issue .. I read Max King did some sort of knee injury yesterday. That will complicate some teams drafting if its serious.

The Thorpe/Selwood selections still kill my Hawk mates.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

It think there was a period where some injuries and the odd "who" had us thinking that, but id also say he's got whatever groove was waning back in full swing.

Still early and injuries can happen at any time, but its looking very promising.

GO Catters

To be fair injuries aren't the recruiters fault unless he goes against medical advice. It's the club doctors that analyse the draftees medical files. I look at the list:
09
Menzel 17 Duncan 28 Christensen 40 Vardy 42 Cowan 56.

Duncan's in the top 6 in that draft now and Menzel is the 3rd best behind Fyfe and Martin if he doesn't do his knees (not Wells fault). Christensen and Vardy were clearly both very talented in their first couple of years then got injured a lot (and the former off field issues). Cowan a walking medical room. Podsiadly and Stringer (before off field issues) as rookies only Weston and Johnson rookie fails.

2010 Smedts 15 Guthrie 23 GHS 37 Schroder 54. Walker (traded for the Esava pick) Simpkin (played in a flag at Hawthorn) and Burbury rookies.

Guthrie is tick. Smedts over Darling hurts and we probably win the 13 flag with Darling and a decent fit ruck but that year Mitch Brown was for once uninjured and good in the vfl so we probably thought kpf was covered and Menzel looked like a forward line star. Smedts was good in 2012 before injuries hit. Wells has recovered it somewhat by trading Smedts for Tuohy. GHS over Parker (as i called on draft night was a bad call) hurts though George is an ok squad player. Schroder over Dahlhaus (given the latter trained with us and we probably would have rookied him if we weren't pipped) really hurts. Walker for Sav will probably be a draw at worst.

2011 Hamling 32 Kersten 34 Murdoch 48 McCarthy 66 Stephenson 78 Bews 84 FS Sheringham and Eardley rookies.

Hamling's a list management fail (whoever thought we could delist and rerookie him in 2014) not a recruiter fail. Hamling probably would have left us for WA eventually anyway. Kersten's a fail although i maintain he had the skills but seemed to lack intensity. Wells did turn him Smedts and a downgrade into Tuohy though (tick). Murdoch has flaws but will probably play 100 games which is a tick for a late pick. McCarthy has the talent clearly but often injured (not recruiter fault). Stephenson was only ever a 2yr rental and Bews will play 100 games at least. Decent draft.

2012-traded out picks for Caddy and McIntosh. Thurlow 16 and Hartmann 77 no rookies.

Hartman had the talent but not desire, Thurlow was decent pre all the kidney and knee injuries while i think he might bust now you can't blame the recruiter there. Clearly no Grundy was a bad call (which i called on draft night) because we probably win at least one flag in 13-16 with Grundy and Darling although i suspect they didn't take Grundy because they got McIntosh and had faith in Vardy it probably had nothing to do with Thurlow.

2013 Lang 16 Jansen 36 (traded for Esava pick) Kolo 41.

It's pretty well known we wanted Zak Jones at 16 and got pipped so our talent ID was ok. Lang was ok early doors but struggled to stay fit, clearly Merrett would have been better but not many people had Merrett going that high. Kolo looks like being a pass mark at least and Jansen for Sav should be ok.

2014 Cockatoo 10 Gregson 47 Gore 55 Cunico 59.

Cockatoo shows enough talent but injured too often again you have to criticise medical staff more than the recruiter. I wanted Weller but he would have left Lever is overrated for the money. We needed Wright to fall one more pick but alas no. Gregson clearly has the ability (remember 2015) Gore traded for Danger (massive tick) and is back at the club Cunico shows enough when fit. Stanley for 21 is clearly a fail but fortunately it wasn't a great draft and other than Miller and McGovern not much after 21.

His last 3 drafts have been really good. What i see above is lots of guys failing due to injuries and they wanted to go to other clubs. It's not as if he drafted 2-3 guys every year that clearly didnt have the talent which is where you should blame your recruiter.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Got to now say I was wrong about his 2016 draft. Parfitt, Ratugolea and Stewart have been great additions. I still hold out hope for Narkle too if he can get his body right.

The 2017 looked to be an inspired one straight after the draft and those thoughts have got early vindication. Fogarty and Kelly are two of the top 10 draftees so far. Constable will be very good also.

I remember when you guys were complaining (not you specifically) that 40 was too high for him on draft night and i said another clubvwould have taken him there and we were lucky we didn't have to use 26 on him. Parfitt will be a gun Sav looks promising and House is starting to show decent form. I suspect Abbott was only ever picked as an injury backup ruck anyay.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Hawthorn had a tall focus at that time of rebuild. It worked with Roughhead and Buddy but it blew up in their face the two drafts after that. It basically cost them Joel Selwood. Imagine Selwood in the side the last 10 years. It sort of make me sick.

I will say this in the last 12 months (that comment was 2017) ..its become more apparent that the KPFs picked early , or those that standout in tac may not be the true quality they seem. Id say we will see more young KPF picked early from SA and WA ..when they have been playing against strong opponents. Ive like Fogerty for the Crows for eg.

There is no doubt having a few single figure picks drafted on your list helps.(if they are the right ones) The issue is not having enough single figure picks. One year (unless a side is very lucky) is not enough. We were lucky on our last rebuild as we never draft talls with the single figure picks.

Sort of a side issue .. I read Max King did some sort of knee injury yesterday. That will complicate some teams drafting if its serious.

I agree with most of that but KPF get picked high because a) the data says most KPFs picked outside the top 20 will fail and therefore b) even average KPF hold their trade value better than mids because most clubs need one.

 

[MacStradbroke]

To be fair injuries aren't the recruiters fault unless he goes against medical advice. It's the club doctors that analyse the draftees medical files. I look at the list:
09
Menzel 17 Duncan 28 Christensen 40 Vardy 42 Cowan 56.

Duncan's in the top 6 in that draft now and Menzel is the 3rd best behind Fyfe and Martin if he doesn't do his knees (not Wells fault). Christensen and Vardy were clearly both very talented in their first couple of years then got injured a lot (and the former off field issues). Cowan a walking medical room. Podsiadly and Stringer (before off field issues) as rookies only Weston and Johnson rookie fails.

2010 Smedts 15 Guthrie 23 GHS 37 Schroder 54. Walker (traded for the Esava pick) Simpkin (played in a flag at Hawthorn) and Burbury rookies.

Guthrie is tick. Smedts over Darling hurts and we probably win the 13 flag with Darling and a decent fit ruck but that year Mitch Brown was for once uninjured and good in the vfl so we probably thought kpf was covered and Menzel looked like a forward line star. Smedts was good in 2012 before injuries hit. Wells has recovered it somewhat by trading Smedts for Tuohy. GHS over Parker (as i called on draft night was a bad call) hurts though George is an ok squad player. Schroder over Dahlhaus (given the latter trained with us and we probably would have rookied him if we weren't pipped) really hurts. Walker for Sav will probably be a draw at worst.

2011 Hamling 32 Kersten 34 Murdoch 48 McCarthy 66 Stephenson 78 Bews 84 FS Sheringham and Eardley rookies.

Hamling's a list management fail (whoever thought we could delist and rerookie him in 2014) not a recruiter fail. Hamling probably would have left us for WA eventually anyway. Kersten's a fail although i maintain he had the skills but seemed to lack intensity. Wells did turn him Smedts and a downgrade into Tuohy though (tick). Murdoch has flaws but will probably play 100 games which is a tick for a late pick. McCarthy has the talent clearly but often injured (not recruiter fault). Stephenson was only ever a 2yr rental and Bews will play 100 games at least. Decent draft.

2012-traded out picks for Caddy and McIntosh. Thurlow 16 and Hartmann 77 no rookies.

Hartman had the talent but not desire, Thurlow was decent pre all the kidney and knee injuries while i think he might bust now you can't blame the recruiter there. Clearly no Grundy was a bad call (which i called on draft night) because we probably win at least one flag in 13-16 with Grundy and Darling although i suspect they didn't take Grundy because they got McIntosh and had faith in Vardy it probably had nothing to do with Thurlow.

2013 Lang 16 Jansen 36 (traded for Esava pick) Kolo 41.

It's pretty well known we wanted Zak Jones at 16 and got pipped so our talent ID was ok. Lang was ok early doors but struggled to stay fit, clearly Merrett would have been better but not many people had Merrett going that high. Kolo looks like being a pass mark at least and Jansen for Sav should be ok.

2014 Cockatoo 10 Gregson 47 Gore 55 Cunico 59.

Cockatoo shows enough talent but injured too often again you have to criticise medical staff more than the recruiter. I wanted Weller but he would have left Lever is overrated for the money. We needed Wright to fall one more pick but alas no. Gregson clearly has the ability (remember 2015) Gore traded for Danger (massive tick) and is back at the club Cunico shows enough when fit. Stanley for 21 is clearly a fail but fortunately it wasn't a great draft and other than Miller and McGovern not much after 21.

His last 3 drafts have been really good. What i see above is lots of guys failing due to injuries and they wanted to go to other clubs. It's not as if he drafted 2-3 guys every year that clearly didnt have the talent which is where you should blame your recruiter.

I know it all changes once they're in the hoops but gee it would be hard to cheer on Zak Jones. Can play but he is a tool. Good write up.