Opinion Losing

[True North]

Two sides presently 5-0 and generally seen as contenders this season certainly haven't done so:
Geelong's last three top ten picks: Cockatoo (#10, 2014), Selwood (#7, 2006), Tenace (#7, 2003)
Adelaide's last three top ten picks: Davis (#10, 2008), Dangerfield (#10, 2007), Meesen (#8, 2004)

Having a horrid season doesn't beget success in any meaningful fashion either; of bottom 2 sides since 2000, only Hawthorn (2004) and Collingwood (2005) have gone on to win the flag within 10 years, and beyond that, only St. Kilda (2000-2002) and West Coast (2008, 2010) have made the GF in that timeframe (even expanding to consecutive prelims - which we achieved without any such poor season - only adds in the 2003 Bulldogs spoon). Finishing so low is instead the province of present-day failures like Melbourne (no finals since '06 and 2 spoons), Brisbane (one finals series since '04), Essendon (no finals wins since '04 and a spoon), Richmond (no finals wins since '01 and 2 spoons), Carlton (no prelims since '01 and four spoons)... my point is, the clubs that have succeeded in the modern era have by and large been those that haven't seen the tail end of the ladder for quite some time - Geelong (one finals series missed since 2006), Sydney (one finals series missed since 2002)... even the bulk of the Hawks' success was nearly a decade after their worst season and relied heavily on subsequent recruits rather than high draftees.

Realistically, we'll finish this season in top ten pick territory. Use that wisely and we should recruit a quality player that addresses list deficiencies (i.e., a pacy outside mid). Throwing away an entire season for slightly improved draft positions which give us a slightly better chance of getting a slightly better player makes no sense - as the various different case examples I mention above go to show, approaches that focus on the draft beget failure. Hopefully, North never go down that track.

This is an excellent post.

 

[giantroo]

just noticed the swans have carlton next week, the bottom of the ladder awaits us.

Boom! Pick 1 is ours!

 

[Royal Flush]

I'd be surprised if JK knocked back 9m myself but when it comes a trade , pick 1 may be enough but pick 6 definitely won't.

But that sucks for us. Pick 1 could turn out better value without extra millions

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk

 

[The Butcher]

This is an excellent post.

Depends. Has the context changed? We might be operating in a different world now. Past data helps predict future, but you have to account for environmental changes.

I'm no scientist but I did watch a ted talk once.

 

[True North]

We should just drug cheat. * get McGrath, Parrish and Ginger plus keep most established players.

Jab won't even be missed.

 

[Wild Bill]

We need top end talent. Out side run, elite kicking number 1 target. Josh Kelly fits the brief.
Target 2 is another KPF. This draft is meant to be stacked with KPP.

Cut the list further - thank Swallow, Gibson and Waite. A couple years of pain before we have another chance at winning a flag.

 

[True North]

We need top end talent. Out side run, elite kicking number 1 target. Josh Kelly fits the brief.
Target 2 is another KPF. This draft is meant to be stacked with KPP.

Cut the list further - thank Swallow, Gibson and Waite. A couple years of pain before we have another chance at winning a flag.

How we get Kelly and keep our 1st is the hard part.

We only have 3 players they'd like imo.

Cunnington
Preuss
Tarrant

They really want a replacement for Mummy, not sure they intend Loebbe to be the 1 Ruck.

 

[lockheed]

Preuss? Brown? Garner? EVW? Dumont? Mullet? McDonald? Going further back Goldstein? Agree we have some stagnating players but this "We can't develop anyone" narrative is applied pretty selectively.

I agree. I've previously thought that we can't develop, but I'm changing my mind.

 

[Wild Bill]

How we get Kelly and keep our 1st is the hard part.

We only have 3 players they'd like imo.

Cunnington
Preuss
Tarrant

They really want a replacement for Mummy, not sure they intend Loebbe to be the 1 Ruck.

Not sure. But with the depth of KPF we could get one with our 2nd pick. We may also get lucky with an ex pick 7 in Ahern.

 

[kangaanth]

Of the last seven Brownlow winners, only Cotchin and Dangerfield were taken inside the top ten of the draft.




Last 10 Brownlow winners
Bartel pick 8
Cooney pick 1
Ablett father son
Judd pick 2
Swan 58
Cotchin 2 Mitchell 36
Ablett father son
Priddis rookie
Fyfe 20
Dangerfield 10

Perspective

 

[The Butcher]

How many votes can you get in a Melbourne geurnsey?

 

[The Butcher]

I can't spell, but after enough vodka who cares. Guernsey? Gurnsey.. dunno

 

[Wild Bill]

How we get Kelly and keep our 1st is the hard part.

We only have 3 players they'd like imo.

Cunnington
Preuss
Tarrant

They really want a replacement for Mummy, not sure they intend Loebbe to be the 1 Ruck.

Watson and Carey discussed sending Goldy up to GWS with preuss coming through.

 

[koshari]

But that sucks for us. Pick 1 could turn out better value without extra millions

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if pick 1 turned out to be a gun after the initial 2 year recruitment deal iam thinking the subsequent deals wouldn’t be chicken feed, wonder what rory sloane who went at somewhere like 22s deal would look like today?

 

[koshari]

How many votes can you get in a Melbourne geurnsey?

ask shane woewoden,

 

[koshari]

Watson and Carey discussed sending Goldy up to GWS with preuss coming through.

i cant wee that happining with mummy, wound be a 3 way deal at best.

 

[True North]

Watson and Carey discussed sending Goldy up to GWS with preuss coming through.

That would be our wet dream. They will ask for Preuss, more in the Mummy mould with a Decade ahead of him.

 

[The Butcher]

ask shane woewoden,

He really should have been in the #red sash tho

 

[Psicosis]

Happy to continue to lose as long as we trial the kids and stop playing washed up senior players.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

We'd need to add a decent pick to Goldstein to land someone like Kelly.

 

[Kimbo]

We are here where we are because we've lost 3 we should have won, and/or we are not getting games into the newer players as much as the majority of posters would like.

I also think there are some quite reasonable expectations that selections would have been more based on merit that so far have not been met. Maybe this will be fixed up now that the VFL season has started.

The second of the quoted paragraphs for me. It isn't about youth per se. It's about (perceived) merit.

Yes, those who seem likely replacements for those I/we deem out of form are younger, but quite frankly it wouldn't bother me as much if they weren't. I just want the best team picked, based on form, and I'm part of the anything but silent majority who think we haven't been doing that.

 

[Wild Bill]

We'd need to add a decent pick to Goldstein to land someone like Kelly.

Our 2nd round will put us in the ball park.

 

[B4Bear]

The fact that it takes years for our draft picks to make it onto the ground is one of the biggest concerns for me. Seven debutants this year, which is good for the future shows a complete lack of medium term planning imho.

 

[Samsquanch]

I just want the best team picked, based on form,

I'm hoping that we see some blokes running around in werribee jumpers demanding blue and white stripes over the next few weeks. So much so that even blind Freddy on the selection panel cannot ignore them.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

Our 2nd round will put us in the ball park.

Not for Kelly it won't.