'"Major International Development" 7am tomorrow. - Nuclear Subs and AUKUS

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Herne Hill Hammer

Premium Platinum
Jun 22, 2008
23,291
19,512
Cowes
AFL Club
Geelong
We're already cooperating with America closely re freedom of navigation in the SC Sea and in response to Chinese cyberwarfare, and the US rely on our DSD and their own bases here to monitor the Chinese closely.

An attack on Australia would be treated much the same as an attack on the USA.

For all their posturing and cyber and economic attacks, China would be flat out stupid to actually attack either nation.

Japan tried it once remember, also while they were on the rise. It didn't exactly work out well for them.

The biggest threat at the moment is a miscalculation or mistake in heightened tensions. A warning shot or show of force that sinks an opposing naval vessel or is misconstrued as a preemtive strike.

Its also only a matter of time with Taiwan. China will most likely continue economic, IT and political influence over the country, seeking to destabilise it and get a pro unification (or pro independence) movement to flourish as a false flag to militarily intervene.

They won't risk sending troops unless they're sure the Yanks won't intervene. It's literally the only thing stopping them at the moment.
It's ASD these days Mal, it hasn't been DSD since 2013.
 

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EconomicDecline

Debutant
Oct 19, 2017
125
244
AFL Club
St Kilda
If I had to spin the wheel here, this is how the conflict will likely play out.

1) China use cyberwarfare to destabilize Taiwan (in much the same way Russia targeted the USA). In addition to cyberwarfare, they'll also use economic and political pressure to seek to install either a very PRO China regime in Taiwan, or a very ANTI China regime in Taiwan, or simply have the island tear itself apart.

2) Pro China Taiwan government 'reaches out to China for military assistance in re-unification'. Alternatively Anti China government declares independence openly, (or the country tears itself apart in social discord) prompting Chinese military intervention 'to stabilize the country and protect Chinese interests'.

3) China rapidly deploy troops and occupy Taiwan within days, quickly overwhelming the island.

4) The USA delivers an ultimatum to China to leave, while preparing to repel the Chinese from Taiwan (and seize as may South China sea islands as possible).

5) China spin this ultimatum as aggressive foreign military action, and pre-emptively take down several US satellites, and launch a string of cyberwarfare attacks on the USA.

6) The USA stop short of declaring War on China, but military action to reclaim Taiwan and 'bases in support of Chinese aggression in the South China sea' (but no action on the mainland) is approved by Congress.

7) China respond by pre-emptive strikes on US Pacific bases at Guam and possibly Okinawa, declaring them defensive in nature counter US aggression.

8) Japan (under the auspices of its constitution barring military action unless in self defence) uses the attack on the US base in Okinawa as justification to enter the war, and mobilizes against China, joining the alliance between the UK, USA and Australia.

9) Protracted naval and air battles ensue in the Pacific and South China sea between the two forces. Despite massive casualties on both sides, including the loss of several aircraft carriers, the US/ UK/ AU and Japanese forces rapidly gain the upper hand, seizing several Chinese bases in the South China sea, and sinking much of the Chinese navy.

10) The EU denounce the conflict, and seek to mediate the parties and bring them to a diplomatic end. Russia stays out of the conflict, providing observers to the Chinese only, and materiel support (Oil mainly) to the Chinese.

11) The Chinese mainland starts to get routinely bombed by US bombers, nullifying missile sites and airfields in preparation for a massive marine landing at Taiwan. Chinese forces on Taiwan are cut off from resupply and reinforcement from the mainland.

12) China, now desperate, openly declare that 'as Taiwan is part of China' it does not consider itself bound to its resolution to only use Nuclear weapons against a 'foreign' aggressor. Additionally, as both the UK and USA are Nuclear weapon states, China states its resolution not to use nuclear weapons against non nuclear States is not applicable 'with respect to the primary aggressors'. The implication is clear; China are prepared to use nuclear weapons to counter any numerical advantage that America has in its liberation of Taiwan.

13) The American response is as always; 'Any attack on US soil or personnel by WMD's will be met in kind.'

14) The Bulletin of Atomic scientists meet. The Doomsday clock, currently at 100 seconds to midnight, is moved to 5 seconds to midnight, amid warnings of global nuclear annihilation.

15) American, UK and Japanese marines storm Taiwan to heavy casualties. Civilian casualties are high.

16) With American forces committed in the Pacific, and emboldened by lack of action in its annexation off Crimea, Putins Russia turns to Georgia, who have been formally offered a Membership action plan (MAP) to join NATO after years of promises. Georgia swiftly and unilaterally join the alliance to counter Russian aggression in South Ossetia. In response, the Russians invade (ostensibly peacekeeping to counter growing anti Russian sentiment in Ossetia), annexing the small country and securing a direct border with southern Turkey (and ME oil reserves).

At this stage we're basically in WW3, and fingers are over buttons with a nuclear attack likely.

Scary thing is, the above isnt actually an 'out there' scenario at all.
You watch too many movies
 

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