Make a prediction...

[TyHawk]

Grim pickings indeed.

Pittonet:

Looks like he knows how to tap a ball to a team mate and the cynic in me says that will never do at Hawthorn! In this case he does not fit at all with our NFI about palm work (oooh errr! ... sounds a bit rude ...) rucking model, thus he either gets injured like Bailey or is held down at BH until he leaves like Lowden. Just piss him off now and save the bother.

Tiea or whatever!:

I thought he must have been an Islander but clearly he has bogan parents who can not spell, personally I blame primary teachers and the moronic embezzling parasites in the state education department. He needs a lot of body development to ever play AFL viz. Puopolo, and as such is probably a delist asap before we waste the time a turn him into another Ross type. However, if he can build a body like Breust has then may become an emergency small defender and part time mid, but FD there is just so much competition for spots at the hawks that it is absurd. This list barley has any obvious weakness apart from Grimely and maybe TOB.

Howe:

Has a proper name but he was over aged playing TAC, WTF? Is a he really mid? If he really just is a running HBF then he appears to be superfluous to our already overflowing stocks of running HBFs, then that is a fail!

Hardirsty:

Spelling? Can't kick very well so what future is there in this one? Kicking is a very very hard skill to improve his age which is a pity as he has other fine qualities like speed, endurance and aggression

Miller-Lewis:

Clearly has the talent being ex-AIS but does he have the application and does he have the luck and dedication to remain relatively free of injury? Could be a very good player or another Peterson. Who knows how the cards will fall? Must be put under the tutelage of Burgers, the purrfect role model, ASAP.

Langford the third:

Yet to start puberty and looks like he has just turned 14, is a lovely kid but will he grow? At 189cm that is a nothing height unless you are a midfielder and that height is too short for a third tall in five years time. Plus has played so little footy over the last few years admittedly due to really bad injuries and at such a low level as well. Well DC cast an attentive eye over him and he is not fool, so they are punting on the character inherent in the family noblesse oblige, cf. the Franklin family "where me free piss card youse c**ts?" with their Housos style welfare entitlement mentality and generic amorality, and young Lachie's natural intelligence. That is a big punt but at a small cost which we having such a strong list can well afford.

May be the best if he can stay injury free and complete puberty. Certainly Will, with the ERNORMOUS amount he has had to overcome, is a fairly tale writ large. Anyway he is certainly set for a long year in the DS at the very least.

Reality Check:

We have an enormous number of players that could be reasonable AFL quality or better that are trying to get a game or two in by far the strongest 22 going around today.

The players that we need to introduce, further develop, or rehabilitate, assuming Frawley is a walk up start, this year alone include: Wx, JOR, Hartung, Shoey, TOB, Lithers, Anderson, Woody, Brand, Heatherly, Sicily, Willsmore , Webster (otherwise why promote him?). So quite a few will have no or very limited opportunities this year and next.

Of the young ones, how many will ever make it to 50 games at Hawthorn in such a competitive crowded side? Perhaps four or five of the following six is my best guess: Anderson, JOR, Hartung, Heatherly, Lithers & Sicily, and that is being optimistic.

So really what chance to the 2014 recruits have? SFA!

Of the lot the only one who is guaranteed development game time over the coming years is Pittonet, so there you have it the pick of the bunch is Pittonet by default as he is definitely will some senior game to prove himself.

Cynical but so true! We can afford to be in a position to have our new recruits wait and improve at BH for two years as the 'next bunch' seems to be ready and able! I'm more excited about JED, JOR, sici, ww, Gus etc..

 

[Big A]

Grim pickings indeed.

Pittonet:

Looks like he knows how to tap a ball to a team mate and the cynic in me says that will never do at Hawthorn! In this case he does not fit at all with our NFI about palm work (oooh errr! ... sounds a bit rude ...) rucking model, thus he either gets injured like Bailey or is held down at BH until he leaves like Lowden. Just piss him off now and save the bother.

Tiea or whatever!:

I thought he must have been an Islander but clearly he has bogan parents who can not spell, personally I blame primary teachers and the moronic embezzling parasites in the state education department. He needs a lot of body development to ever play AFL viz. Puopolo, and as such is probably a delist asap before we waste the time a turn him into another Ross type. However, if he can build a body like Breust has then may become an emergency small defender and part time mid, but FD there is just so much competition for spots at the hawks that it is absurd. This list barley has any obvious weakness apart from Grimely and maybe TOB.

Howe:

Has a proper name but he was over aged playing TAC, WTF? Is a he really mid? If he really just is a running HBF then he appears to be superfluous to our already overflowing stocks of running HBFs, then that is a fail!

Hardirsty:

Spelling? Can't kick very well so what future is there in this one? Kicking is a very very hard skill to improve his age which is a pity as he has other fine qualities like speed, endurance and aggression

Miller-Lewis:

Clearly has the talent being ex-AIS but does he have the application and does he have the luck and dedication to remain relatively free of injury? Could be a very good player or another Peterson. Who knows how the cards will fall? Must be put under the tutelage of Burgers, the purrfect role model, ASAP.

Langford the third:

Yet to start puberty and looks like he has just turned 14, is a lovely kid but will he grow? At 189cm that is a nothing height unless you are a midfielder and that height is too short for a third tall in five years time. Plus has played so little footy over the last few years admittedly due to really bad injuries and at such a low level as well. Well DC cast an attentive eye over him and he is not fool, so they are punting on the character inherent in the family noblesse oblige, cf. the Franklin family "where me free piss card youse c**ts?" with their Housos style welfare entitlement mentality and generic amorality, and young Lachie's natural intelligence. That is a big punt but at a small cost which we having such a strong list can well afford.

May be the best if he can stay injury free and complete puberty. Certainly Will, with the ERNORMOUS amount he has had to overcome, is a fairly tale writ large. Anyway he is certainly set for a long year in the DS at the very least.

Reality Check:

We have an enormous number of players that could be reasonable AFL quality or better that are trying to get a game or two in by far the strongest 22 going around today.

The players that we need to introduce, further develop, or rehabilitate, assuming Frawley is a walk up start, this year alone include: Wx, JOR, Hartung, Shoey, TOB, Lithers, Anderson, Woody, Brand, Heatherly, Sicily, Willsmore , Webster (otherwise why promote him?). So quite a few will have no or very limited opportunities this year and next.

Of the young ones, how many will ever make it to 50 games at Hawthorn in such a competitive crowded side? Perhaps four or five of the following six is my best guess: Anderson, JOR, Hartung, Heatherly, Lithers & Sicily, and that is being optimistic.

So really what chance to the 2014 recruits have? SFA!

Of the lot the only one who is guaranteed development game time over the coming years is Pittonet, so there you have it the pick of the bunch is Pittonet by default as he is definitely will some senior game to prove himself.

Wow we have a hard taskmaster on our hands.
What else can we do from our trading position as reigning premiers other than trade out sime great players or rebuild?

Id rather back our recruiters and take a punt with what weve got.

Watch this space Ordi

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

That is pretty much the same pathway we tried with Jordan Kelly. Kelly was pretty solid but generally lacked zing. The club obviously is keen on the big muscled mid model, Howe seems to have more zip than Kel. We gave Kelly plenty of time so I assume we will be in rush with Howe.

Mundy 2.0 ?

 

[crazywildhorse]

Grim pickings indeed.

Pittonet:

Looks like he knows how to tap a ball to a team mate and the cynic in me says that will never do at Hawthorn! In this case he does not fit at all with our NFI about palm work (oooh errr! ... sounds a bit rude ...) rucking model, thus he either gets injured like Bailey or is held down at BH until he leaves like Lowden. Just piss him off now and save the bother.

Tiea or whatever!:

I thought he must have been an Islander but clearly he has bogan parents who can not spell, personally I blame primary teachers and the moronic embezzling parasites in the state education department. He needs a lot of body development to ever play AFL viz. Puopolo, and as such is probably a delist asap before we waste the time a turn him into another Ross type. However, if he can build a body like Breust has then may become an emergency small defender and part time mid, but FD there is just so much competition for spots at the hawks that it is absurd. This list barley has any obvious weakness apart from Grimely and maybe TOB.

Howe:

Has a proper name but he was over aged playing TAC, WTF? Is a he really mid? If he really just is a running HBF then he appears to be superfluous to our already overflowing stocks of running HBFs, then that is a fail!

Hardirsty:

Spelling? Can't kick very well so what future is there in this one? Kicking is a very very hard skill to improve his age which is a pity as he has other fine qualities like speed, endurance and aggression

Miller-Lewis:

Clearly has the talent being ex-AIS but does he have the application and does he have the luck and dedication to remain relatively free of injury? Could be a very good player or another Peterson. Who knows how the cards will fall? Must be put under the tutelage of Burgers, the purrfect role model, ASAP.

Langford the third:

Yet to start puberty and looks like he has just turned 14, is a lovely kid but will he grow? At 189cm that is a nothing height unless you are a midfielder and that height is too short for a third tall in five years time. Plus has played so little footy over the last few years admittedly due to really bad injuries and at such a low level as well. Well DC cast an attentive eye over him and he is not fool, so they are punting on the character inherent in the family noblesse oblige, cf. the Franklin family "where me free piss card youse c**ts?" with their Housos style welfare entitlement mentality and generic amorality, and young Lachie's natural intelligence. That is a big punt but at a small cost which we having such a strong list can well afford.

May be the best if he can stay injury free and complete puberty. Certainly Will, with the ERNORMOUS amount he has had to overcome, is a fairly tale writ large. Anyway he is certainly set for a long year in the DS at the very least.

Reality Check:

We have an enormous number of players that could be reasonable AFL quality or better that are trying to get a game or two in by far the strongest 22 going around today.

The players that we need to introduce, further develop, or rehabilitate, assuming Frawley is a walk up start, this year alone include: Wx, JOR, Hartung, Shoey, TOB, Lithers, Anderson, Woody, Brand, Heatherly, Sicily, Willsmore , Webster (otherwise why promote him?). So quite a few will have no or very limited opportunities this year and next.

Of the young ones, how many will ever make it to 50 games at Hawthorn in such a competitive crowded side? Perhaps four or five of the following six is my best guess: Anderson, JOR, Hartung, Heatherly, Lithers & Sicily, and that is being optimistic.

So really what chance to the 2014 recruits have? SFA!

Of the lot the only one who is guaranteed development game time over the coming years is Pittonet, so there you have it the pick of the bunch is Pittonet by default as he is definitely will some senior game to prove himself.

POTY

 

[Procrastinator35]

Grim pickings indeed.

Pittonet:

Looks like he knows how to tap a ball to a team mate and the cynic in me says that will never do at Hawthorn! In this case he does not fit at all with our NFI about palm work (oooh errr! ... sounds a bit rude ...) rucking model, thus he either gets injured like Bailey or is held down at BH until he leaves like Lowden. Just piss him off now and save the bother.

Tiea or whatever!:

I thought he must have been an Islander but clearly he has bogan parents who can not spell, personally I blame primary teachers and the moronic embezzling parasites in the state education department. He needs a lot of body development to ever play AFL viz. Puopolo, and as such is probably a delist asap before we waste the time a turn him into another Ross type. However, if he can build a body like Breust has then may become an emergency small defender and part time mid, but FD there is just so much competition for spots at the hawks that it is absurd. This list barley has any obvious weakness apart from Grimely and maybe TOB.

Howe:

Has a proper name but he was over aged playing TAC, WTF? Is a he really mid? If he really just is a running HBF then he appears to be superfluous to our already overflowing stocks of running HBFs, then that is a fail!

Hardirsty:

Spelling? Can't kick very well so what future is there in this one? Kicking is a very very hard skill to improve his age which is a pity as he has other fine qualities like speed, endurance and aggression

Miller-Lewis:

Clearly has the talent being ex-AIS but does he have the application and does he have the luck and dedication to remain relatively free of injury? Could be a very good player or another Peterson. Who knows how the cards will fall? Must be put under the tutelage of Burgers, the purrfect role model, ASAP.

Langford the third:

Yet to start puberty and looks like he has just turned 14, is a lovely kid but will he grow? At 189cm that is a nothing height unless you are a midfielder and that height is too short for a third tall in five years time. Plus has played so little footy over the last few years admittedly due to really bad injuries and at such a low level as well. Well DC cast an attentive eye over him and he is not fool, so they are punting on the character inherent in the family noblesse oblige, cf. the Franklin family "where me free piss card youse c**ts?" with their Housos style welfare entitlement mentality and generic amorality, and young Lachie's natural intelligence. That is a big punt but at a small cost which we having such a strong list can well afford.

May be the best if he can stay injury free and complete puberty. Certainly Will, with the ERNORMOUS amount he has had to overcome, is a fairly tale writ large. Anyway he is certainly set for a long year in the DS at the very least.

Reality Check:

We have an enormous number of players that could be reasonable AFL quality or better that are trying to get a game or two in by far the strongest 22 going around today.

The players that we need to introduce, further develop, or rehabilitate, assuming Frawley is a walk up start, this year alone include: Wx, JOR, Hartung, Shoey, TOB, Lithers, Anderson, Woody, Brand, Heatherly, Sicily, Willsmore , Webster (otherwise why promote him?). So quite a few will have no or very limited opportunities this year and next.

Of the young ones, how many will ever make it to 50 games at Hawthorn in such a competitive crowded side? Perhaps four or five of the following six is my best guess: Anderson, JOR, Hartung, Heatherly, Lithers & Sicily, and that is being optimistic.

So really what chance to the 2014 recruits have? SFA!

Of the lot the only one who is guaranteed development game time over the coming years is Pittonet, so there you have it the pick of the bunch is Pittonet by default as he is definitely will some senior game to prove himself.

Luv ya work Odo....Nice to see sum wit on the board....Great stuff m8!

 

[Ordovician]

Wow we have a hard taskmaster on our hands.
What else can we do from our trading position as reigning premiers other than trade out sime great players or rebuild?

Id rather back our recruiters and take a punt with what we've got.

Watch this space Ordi

It may well be harsh but nobody ever stayed at the top in a highly competitive environment by being soft and lax.

The reality for our current draftees is that there is a lot of talent queued up in front of them and while they will be given the best chance in the AFL to prove themselves time wise, very few of them will become medium term best 22 regular senior hawks players.

The history of the current list does not lie, just look at how few players remain on our list from the following national drafts:

2001: Hodge, Mitchell (six picks)
2002: none (3 picks)
2003: none (3 picks)
2004: Roughead, Lewis (6 picks)
2005: Birchall (6 picks)
2006: none (3 picks)
2007: Rioli, Whitecrosss (3 picks)
2008: Schoey, Shiels (5 picks)
2009: Stratton, Duryea (5 picks)
2010: Smith, Litherland, Puopolo (4 picks)

That is not a great strike rate but it is probably typical for a lot of teams. And the success rate for the rookie draft is far lower.

It is simple arithmetic, there are 46 players on the combined lists with only 22 spots available each game.

I think we are doing the best that anyone can given our situation, in that we have:

- freed up a fair amount of salary cap space by allowing the exemplary trash bogan to piss off, and are starting to recruit targeted free agents to fill specific roles or provide successors to key players e.g. Frawley

- actively and very successfully traded with very limited currency at hand, for quality players to fill key gaps e.g. Gibson, Lake, Hale, McEvoy and as simple value propositions e.g. Gunston

- started to trade for successors, targeting the outrageous wealth of talent hoarded and abused by the incompetent avaricious wannabes of the development teams, starting with JOR, and this will become our most important source of accessing of potential near elite young talent given our perennial crap draft picks, as the expansion teams are finally forced to prune their bloated lists

- carefully and consistently targeted speculative value picks with our late draft picks and rookie picks, and due to our circumstances have given an incredible number of these players 4 and 5 years to show their worth and have been rewarded for our patience e.g. Breust, Langford, Suckling, Duryea

- those picks that have not made the grade have often been 3 or 4 years to prove themselves anyway before being ushered to new homes for relatively generous terms to the counter parties

- we are active in the international rookie area and have pioneered extending this program to NZ even though we have never had an Irish recruit other than the wimp who got home sick after six or so weeks

So short of trading out quality core players, which would fracture the team first ethos that Clarko has worked so hard to foster, and damage our immediate chances of contesting the flag, I really can not see what more the club can do other than finally snag an quality Irish kid.

 

[Flag08]

I predict that come the end of the year there will be 5-6 fringe players that will need some serious encouragement to stay given they may have far fewer opportunities this year than they would expect for their talent. Woodward tops this list.

I also predict that Lake will be forced out of the side when there is no obvious gorilla type to match up on and we want more pace. E.g. Port.

 

[cryptor]

I predict that come the end of the year there will be 5-6 fringe players that will need some serious encouragement to stay given they may have far fewer opportunities this year than they would expect for their talent. Woodward tops this list.

I also predict that Lake will be forced out of the side when there is no obvious gorilla type to match up on and we want more pace. E.g. Port.

Spent a lot of time today training as a forward in the fwd/def training group. If he's not having a week off and we still don't need that many big backmen then that's where you'll find him I reckon.

 

[Brant]

I predict that come the end of the year there will be 5-6 fringe players that will need some serious encouragement to stay given they may have far fewer opportunities this year than they would expect for their talent. Woodward tops this list.

I also predict that Lake will be forced out of the side when there is no obvious gorilla type to match up on and we want more pace. E.g. Port.

I predict the opposite with regard to Lake & port's forwards. I think he'll have a 2013-GF-like impact. They're besotted with their own 'mobility', but it'll be their downfall if they try it against us. Imagine Westpoint & Schultz playing mobile, up to HF/Wing; Frawley & Gibbo follow them up the ground & block their run back to goal, leaving Lake (or Stratts) to patrol the hole behind them, a foot taller than anyone wearing aqua & a brilliant intercept mark. Port don't have the kicking ability to cut us up with accurate disposal & their small forwards would be largely ineffective if they don't have big forwards to crum off.

 

[dermott]

The odds on rookie selections becoming long term AFL players are pretty long as they are for later round picks. Ordivician's comments are spot on.
Few of this years draftees/rookies will play 100 games, however every now and then one defies the odds. I wouldn't try to guess who that may be.
For what it is worth I think Hartung and O'Rourke are good bets to play 150 plus games for the Hawks.

 

[Big A]

Once again great stuff Ordi.

At least our recruiting is tending towards an upward spiral over those years.

Btw when did Graeme Wright begin his great reign?

It may well be harsh but nobody ever stayed at the top in a highly competitive environment by being soft and lax.

The reality for our current draftees is that there is a lot of talent queued up in front of them and while they will be given the best chance in the AFL to prove themselves time wise, very few of them will become regular senior hawks players.

The medium term history does not lie, just look at how few players remain on our list from the following national drafts:

2001: Hodge, Mitchell (six picks)
2002: none (3 picks)
2003: none (3 picks)
2004: Roughead, Lewis (6 picks)
2005: one player (6 picks)
2006: none (3 picks)
2007: Rioli (3 picks)
2008: Schoey, Shiels (5 picks)
2009: Stratton, Duryea (5 picks)
2010: Smith, Litherland, Puopolo (4 picks)

That is not a great strike rate but it is probably typical for a lot of teams. And the success rate for the rookie draft is far lower.

It is simple arithmetic, there are 46 players on the combined lists with only 22 spots available each game.

I think we are doing the best that anyone can given our situation, in that we have:

- freed up a fair amount of salary cap space by allowing the exemplary trash bogan to piss off, and are starting to recruit targeted free agents to fill specific roles or provide successors to key players e.g. Frawley

- actively and very successfully traded with very limited currency at hand, for quality players to fill key gaps e.g. Gibson, Lake, Hale, McEvoy and as simple value propositions e.g. Gunston

- started to trade for successors, targeting the outrageous wealth of talent hoarded and abused by the incompetent avaricious wannabes of the development teams, starting with JOR, and this will become our most important source of accessing of potential near elite young talent given our perennial crap draft picks, as the expansion teams are finally forced to prune their bloated lists

- carefully and consistently targeted speculative value picks with our late draft picks and rookie picks, and due to our circumstances have given an incredible number of these players 4 and 5 years to show their worth and have been rewarded for our patience e.g. Breust, Langford, Suckling, Duryea

- those picks that have not made the grade have often been 3 or 4 years to prove themselves anyway before being ushered to new homes for relatively generous terms to the counter parties

- we are active in the international rookie area and have pioneered extending this program to NZ even though we have never had an Irish recruit other than the wimp who got home sick after six or so weeks

So short of trading out quality core players, which would fracture the team first ethos that Clarko has worked so hard to foster, and damage our immediate chances of contesting the flag, I really can not see what more the club can do other than finally snag an quality Irish kid.

 

[Ordovician]

Pelchin left Hawthorn in the middle of 2011. His departure was reported on 4 June that year in The Age.

I think that by 2010 Wright was really running the drafting and Pelchin had moved to a more managerial role overseeing the recruiting team led by Wright. Pelchin also had responsibility for non-recruiting functions like managing the player payments and contracts within the salary cap.

 

[Whirling Dervish]

...
The reality for our current draftees is that there is a lot of talent queued up in front of them and while they will be given the best chance in the AFL to prove themselves time wise, very few of them will become regular senior hawks players.

The medium term history does not lie, just look at how few players remain on our list from the following national drafts:

2001: Hodge, Mitchell (six picks)
2002: none (3 picks)
2003: none (3 picks)
2004: Roughead, Lewis (6 picks)
2005: one player(Birchall) (6 picks)
2006: none (3 picks)
2007: Rioli, Whitecross (3 picks)
2008: Schoey, Shiels (5 picks)
2009: Grimley, Stratton, Duryea (5 picks)
2010: Smith, Litherland, Puopolo (4 picks)
...

EFA

Agree with the assessment of the task facing this crop, but I don't think the original list above painted an accurate picture of 'medium term' given the average length of an AFL career - it was more like medium to long term.

That being the case, I think we also look at players who were regulars for a time although they may no longer be on the list. I'd say most of the current crop would be happy to have a career at the Hawks like Rick Ladson or Campbell Brown - 100+ games in the brown and gold and a premiership on top. We should also include Franklin and Savage who were regulars (at least for a time in Sav's case), and players like Ellis and Bailey who were regulars when fit. Tom Murphy and Simon Taylor were hardly stars, but they played near on 100 senior games as Hawks.

Grimley may have been delisted and rookied but he's still a national draftee who's still on our list.

 

[Collins-Langford-Ayres]

This will be Grimley's last year as a Hawk.

 

[cryptor]

This will be Grimley's last year as a Hawk.

He would really need to turn things around from here but given it's only January and the metaphoric kick in the ass of being dropped to the rookie list hasn't seemed to be enough of a wake up call (as shown from what I observed above) I have little to no hope that he will.

What's probably most frustrating about him is not that he's letting his talent go to waste but that for yet another year he's taken a spot on the Hawthorn list that could've gone to someone more willing to work hard for a spot. I would've much preferred see us take a Lachie Langford like crack at someone like Dylan Hodge who might only play Box Hill Dev Squad this year than have Grimley win the goal kicking in the VFL again but never even go close to pushing for an AFL game.

 

[Pessimistic]

Burgoyne might be the one player out of the over 30s which plays the longest

Maybe even compared to 'michael tuck in the end he just looks so damn reliable.

At 32 he is, compard to tuck at 32 incidentally debuted 30 years later

SB debut 2002 completed 13 seasons 2014 age 32
MT debut 1972 completed 13 seasons 1984 age 31 went on to complete 20 seasons age 38

SB. 270 games. MT 350? Games. Final 426
SB. 5 grand finals. MT 5 grand finals. Final. 11
SB. 3 flags. MT 3 flags. Final. 7
SB. 27 finals. MT 24 finals. Final. 39

 

[seysearles]

This will be Grimley's last year as a Hawk.

It's fair to say that his future is looking grim.

 

[Big Hotdog]

It's fair to say that his future is looking grim.

He need's to develop a Judd like Grimace to show he is at least busting half a nut at training.

 

[Davo23]

He need's to develop a Judd like Grimace to show he is at least busting half a nut at training.

Grimley needs a girlfriend with a cheerful face.

Judd's grimness is exacerbated by having a wife with a permanent long face ...

 

[Gunston19]

He sure does - Crackers!

Crackers it is!

 

[Ordovician]

Grimley needs a girlfriend with a cheerful face.

Judd's grimness is exacerbated by having a wife with a permanent long face ...

Methinks Judd hath more than a touch of the Toorak cowboy about him.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Lachlan Langford.

17 other AFL clubs should be very afraid.

 

[arupist]

Judd's grimness is exacerbated by having a wife with a permanent long face ...

He's married to Horse? I thought he was married to some model.

 

[Agent Smith]

Lachlan Langford.

17 other AFL clubs should be very afraid.

Well... at least their little league teams.