Make or break for Melbourne, Richmond, Hawthorn . . .

Olmy

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I kinda get the feeling that season 2001 will be make or break time for Richmond, Hawthorn and Melbourne.

RICHMOND - where do you start? Perhaps by renaming them after a Chemical Brothers album? (ie: "Dig your own hole"). Even the Roys have made the finals more times in the last 20 years than Richmond, and we haven't even had a team in the AFL for the last 4. If Richmond don't make the finals this season - then they never will with their current crop of players. Question is, while they rely on a few stars, with a decent crop of core players, does the squad as a whole have the intestinal fortitude to put an entire season together (as opposed to just 8 weeks of good footy)? Is it a culture problem?

MELBOURNE - made the GF last year. By default, however. Off-field dramas to the Roos and Lions, and injuries to Carlton left the Demons with a few short steps (and a favourable draw) to making and easy road to GF glory (only to be outdone by a far superior side on the day). Will they sink again, like in '99 (and every other year after they've had a good one)? Will they be able to keep their best side on the track? Is their best side even good enough to match it with the competition's other best sides (Dons, Lions, Roos, Blues)?? Do they have any real stars or any genuine depth to cover personnel losses? Or are they still a few years off?

HAWTHORN - been billed as the next big thing since at least '97, now. Showed promise at different stages last year (knocking off Bulldogs, Lions, Roos) - but do they have the polish to make that a regular occurence? Or are they just a bunch of pretenders?
 

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elt

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#2
Originally posted by Olmy:
HAWTHORN - been billed as the next big thing since at least '97, now. Showed promise at different stages last year (knocking off Bulldogs, Lions, Roos) - but do they have the polish to make that a regular occurence? Or are they just a bunch of pretenders?
Since 97? I wouldn't have thought so. We have made gradual improvement over the last couple of years and I will be looking for us to continue. We need to find some more depth in the midfield to consistently worry top teams. Very happy with the way things are going though. Make or break? Hardly.
 

Olmy

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So elt, if you finish out of the 8 this season, where does that leave you then?

Think back to when you played Richmond last season. There wasn't too much to the Hawks at that stage, was there? Also the games against Port and the Crows towards the end of the year - hardly inspiring wins, considering the fact that you were playing for a finals berth.
 

hawkfan5

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#4
Hawthorn may not have been inspriring against the Adelaide 'shit' crows and Port Power but we still won the games didnt we which means that we dont have to be playing at our best to be able to win. I predict us being a top 4 side this year.
 

Olmy

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Don't get me wrong, I reckon the Hawks could just as well stand up and be a top 4 side. But they are an interesting case scenario - things could go either way. When you guys are at your best, you're pretty good. To be a top 4 side, you have to be capable of that every week. At the moment, I'd say the Hawks list is still a bit green (young/inexperienced), to be able to match it week in week out for an entire season (as opposed to some of the other top sides). However, the Hawks have generally been regarded as one of the fittest and most disciplined sides over the past few years, so that goes in your favour. Just a question mark over the 'class' section remains (and I know it's a cliche to mention that).

But then again, you also have to think about the possibility that the Hawks could totally flop and miss the finals (which isn't out of the question). Where'd they be then?
 

elt

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#6
If we finish out of the eight it leaves us not playing in a tournament that overrides the rest of the season


Seriously though, not too much to us? Not sure I understand. Richmond was definitely a game we shouldn't have lost but one swallow doesn't make a summer. Obviously no team wants to go backwards but I hardly think it would be time to hit the panic button.

As for the for the other comment, what do you expect? We won the games we needed to at the end of the season and you say they aren't inspiring? I thought the last round win over the Bulldogs with their 'unbeatable' flooding tactic to make the eight was quite inspiring. So was winning our first finals match since 1991. We had an inconsistent year which is precisely what was expected considering the age of some of our "senior" players, hopefully with another year under their belt and some finals experience they will improve.

My point is that it's not like if we don't win the flag this year we should slash the list and sack the coach.
 

CJH

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#7
An objective analysis of our 2000 season shows thet the only thing between us and the finals was the horrendous injury run – worse than any other team in the competition. Even still we did well to miss out by only 1 game. The performances of the playing group as a whole was reasonably consistent for the whole season – we just generally ran out of petrol in the end.

Given a reasonable run of injuries this season, I see us as definitely being top 8 – even nudging top 4.

Why do you say make or break? How will we be broken if we again fail? Will all those screaming hoards of Tigers suddenly walk away from the game and follow the Storm? Our playing list is hardly aging – only 2 players over 30 years with Benny Gale the only real retirement prospect this season. This list has probably at least 3 years together before it could be deemed aging?

One other key thing that we did prove last year was this list does have depth – maybe more so that any other club. The advantage of having so many injuries was that almost all the players last season got a run in the seniors – only Paddy Steinfort and Ray Hall missed out.

I have previously produced a list of the standing of the players on our list. By my reckoning, we have 24 players who have proven that they have the ability to cut it at senior level, 13 players who are unproven and/or developing and 2 who I would consider to be on the fringe (last chance this season).

From my perspective, our future looks very bright!

This is the list:
Senior:
  1. Rory Hilton
  2. Darren Gaspar
  3. Duncan Kellaway
  4. Matthew Rogers
  5. Brad Ottens
  6. Mark Chaffey
  7. Marc Dragicevic
  8. Wayne Campbell
  9. Nick Daffy
  10. Joel Bowden
  11. Matthew Richardson
  12. Leon Cameron
  13. Ben Holland
  14. Paul Broderick
  15. Steven Sziller
  16. Clinton King
  17. Craig Biddiscombe
  18. Benny Gale
  19. Jason Torney
  20. David Bourke
  21. Greg Tivendale
  22. Matthew Knights
  23. Andrew Kellaway
  24. Royce Vardy
    [/list=a]

    Developing/Unproven
    1. Kayne Pettifer
    2. Aaron Fiora
    3. Paddy Steinfort
    4. Ray Hall
    5. Mark Coughlan
    6. Ezra Poyas
    7. Andrew Krakouer
    8. Scott Homewood
    9. Chris Hyde
    10. Andrew Mills
    11. Ty Zantuck
    12. Ben Haynes
    13. Chris Newman
      [/list=a]

      Fringe:
      1. Aaron James
      2. Lionel Proctor
        [/list=a]


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Olmy

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Fair enough elt! Keep a hold of things there mate! There's no need for the nasty growly icon-smiley at the the start of your post!

Anyway, what's the matter with you anyway elt? Got piles or something? Perhaps you just don't like people talking about your team. Touchy!

Apart from the fact that you won't call for drastic measures at the end of the season if you don't win the GF, it's also a possibility worth considering that the Hawks could just be a mediocre side in 2001. What happens then? Considering the fact that some of your younger brigade will have been at the club for a few years, you'd say there'd be a few questions asked.

As far as I can see, making the finals last year did little to answer any questions that people have had about the Hawks in any of the previous years. Let's face it. The teams from 5-8 scraped into the finals last year. They were the cream of a pack of duds. It's no consellation to say "hey well, we had a few nice ones on the way".
 

Olmy

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CJH, the injury argument is a valid one for Richmond. However, justifying poor performances with an injury prone list is not something that will enhance you standing on the ladder. It's the same scenario for the Lions when it comes to finals performances.

I believe it's make or break for Richmond, or at least for some of the players. Another year without making the finals. Some serious questions would have to be asked as to whether or not some of the 'survivors' should be traded for some genuine 'stayers'.

IMO, I'd be putting a question mark over the likes of Harrison, Bourke, Hilton, and Tivendale for starters. Broderick is almost at the end of his career and Knights is probably half as dominant as he used to be.

True, the Tigers do have a decent list in regards to depth. However, is their best side good enough to be a true finals contender?
 

elt

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#10
Sorry about the icon, wrong one wanted the purple one. Actually I welcome some Hawks topics, it beats all the Magpies are best/Roos are broke/Essendon are arrogant /Port are successful ones


There is no doubt there wasn't much between 5th and about tenth last year and it is quite possible, or even probable, that will be the case again in 2001. The area that needs to improve to make sure we aren't "mediocre" is the midfield. This is one area where Hawthorn isn't playing the "younger brigade that have been at the club for a few years". There are quite a few likely prospects in this group, not the least of which is Johnston.

The reason I talked about the finals, is from my (admittedly biased) perspective we have been improving gradually. Whilst the media may have played up some of the youngsters like Croad and Hay most supporters are happy to see that gradual improvement continue.

I would say that questions will be asked at any club that doesn't make the eight this year, so Hawthorn wouldn't be alone there. Besides the questions would be no different than say 1999. The point is how exactly is that make or break? To me that signifies that if they are unsuccesful a major overhaul is required. I think we are more in the minor tinkering range.

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CJH

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#11
Originally posted by Olmy:
IMO, I'd be putting a question mark over the likes of Harrison, Bourke, Hilton, and Tivendale for starters. Broderick is almost at the end of his career and Knights is probably half as dominant as he used to be.

True, the Tigers do have a decent list in regards to depth. However, is their best side good enough to be a true finals contender?
Harrison's question mark is so big he was traded to the Western Bulldogs!

No problems with Tivendale, although he should take the next step wrt to consistency this year.

Bourke has the ability to play as either a tall 3rd defender or as a tall midfielder. Just has to stop diving head first into packs!

Hilton had a very good season 2000 - just wish he'd stop hitting blokes!

Brodders is one I forgot on my previous old fella's list - may also be his last season, though there is no reason why he can't keep going if form warrants it! You can't say he has lost any pace!



Knights has had probably 4 consecutive years of injury problems. True enough this his cut his output which is probably part of the reason for his sacking from the captaincy.

If we do have a decent run injurywise and we still miss the finals, I agree that it is time to move these old fella's on and draft again.

However this won't happen - Finals time for the Tigers!

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dees01

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#12
I agree it is make ot break for the Dees but to say they made the Grand Final by default is a little harsh. Melbourne was the second best side at the time. I agree if Carlton did not have injuries we would have been the third best. I also think we were better than the Roos and the Lions.

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BUBBALOUIS

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#13
The points you make are valid Olmy, What if Hawthorn dont make the eight , what if they lose 12 in a row, what if there youngsters dont take the next step, what if there midfield depth hasnt improved, my argument would be 15 other sides could be put in the same category, i think the what ifs apply to everyone bar Essendon, who could only be let down by a premiership hangover eg, what if StKilda finish last again? What if the Western Bulldogs still dont uncover any youth, what if Collingwood show no improvement, what if West Coast dont win a game, of course theyll all be at the crossroads. Hawthorn have shown very promising signs and that is all you can go by before the bounce of the first ball in anger. Thanks for the topic though, interesting discussion
 

ptw

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#16
CJH

the biggest problem with Richmond is that they are a faily average side, with a fairly average squad....but they don't acknowledge it.

Since 1994 (is that the year they made the finals ?) they have done nothing except sack a few coaches. They are still relying on essentially the same group of players (Campbell, Richardson, Knights etc) to reproduce that form. There is of course an alternative hypothesis...that is that 1994 was an aboration. If you take this view then Richmond have actually performed at their appropriate level for the past decade...with the exception of 1994. The Richmond club I think tend to view it as the oppposite (ie 1994 was their actual standard and every other year was an aboration (injuries, draw etc).

This is consistent with the symtom of sacking coaches. If you think that you have a great list then it must be the coach's fault for not getting the best out of it. If you concede that you are a dud side (like Collingwood have) then you get rid of your players (and maybe coach) and start all over again.

For as long as Richmond continue to think of themselves as a top 6 side who is just unlucky, then they will not make the tough decisions...and will continue to languish.

IMHO of course !!!

ptw
 

Tom FC

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#17
"Perhaps by renaming them after a Chemical Brothers album?
(ie: "Dig your own hole")."

If they just miss the finals again this year, maybe they'll be named after another Chemical Brothers album- "Surrender"!
 

RogerC

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#18
Olmy, you started out by saying this is a make or break year for Richmond, Melbourne and Hawthorn. With Melbourne you really have no case to argue. Their achievement in making the Grand Final last year was exceptional no matter which way you look at it, and they did it with a solid work ethic and a talented bunch of youngsters. On the few occasions I saw them last year (especially the Prelim against North) they staked their claim beyond argument. They were simply a far superior side. To everyone except Essendon. In fact, the injuries to North, Carlton and Brisbane placed question marks over those sides, far more than it did over Melbourne. Depth and age. Okay, Melbourne were outclassed by Essendon on the day. Who wasn't last year? In fact, the team has proven it can handle the pressure of finals football (after not having been there for a few years) and I think they have every right to look forward to this season with confidence.

Richmond - well, to look at your argument regarding them, they must have been at a turning point since 94. This year is just one more on the road to wherever they're heading.

And Hawthorn. You can't single out a couple of games late in the season (games we won, incidentally) and use it to justify some spurious argument about Hawthorn's fragility. Every team had ugly, scrappy wins last year. And you admit yourself that the Hawks had good wins. Both Brisbane wins, the Bulldogs, Geelong in the finals, North during the season. The way I see it, teams that are on the way up aren't really at a turning point at all. Hawthorn's turning point probably came back in 1996, with the merger crisis and the turnover of personnel. As elt and Bubbalouis have already argued, this squad is looking forward to a good year. Missing out on the finals wouldn't be a disaster, because the club is confident that most of the parts are in place, and a good finals showing is guaranteed, if not this year, then the next.

Crikey, by your logic, 15 teams are at a turning point, if the major criterion is what-if-they-have-a bad-year, what-are-they-going-to-do? I'm not even disagreeing with you here, just saying that question marks hang over every side at this stage of the year.

The bit that really sticks in my craw is the imputation that Melbourne made the GF by default. The Melbourne I saw had every right to be there, and will be much the wiser for the experience.

Anyway, cheers
 
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#20
Originally posted by Stealth bomber:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say all three make the final 8 this year. Even Richmond.

Stealth, I agree with Phil, I want some of what ever you are taking.

I think Richmond and Melbourne will struggle this year and Hawthorn will just fall into the eight for a second round final exit again.


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Grendel

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#21
Dees should hope and pray that nothing happens to White, because if it does then thats the end of their finals chances. I think there the only 'top side' going (and they are a top side) so reliant on ONE key player. Most sides would struggle with losing two/three top liners, the Dees are the exception. No White, no Melbourne.

Roger stated the Tiges case beautifully, they have been going around like they have for the past decade. Always nearly there, never quite. Need to cull big time (thank god they didnt start last year with Daffy) but it did show what Frawleys thinking was like.

Now the Hawks. As elt said, where did you get the idea we were the next big things since 97??? If anything that was the start end of the freefall that the middle ninties were. Remember five weeks out from the finals in 98 we had won 3 games for the season and were unbackable for the wooden spoon. Those last five wins of the season were more a shock to the football public than any indication that we were going places (at that time).

So id say 99 onwards has been the start of 'the next big thing' tag. Thats two whole seasons! Wow, sure been a long time coming now hasnt it. The side will make the eight given a fair run with injury, ive no doubt about it. The make or break scenario doesnt apply here. They would go close to having the best big men group in the league, very adaptable in that we can cover all key possies quite comfortably. The midfield situation has been looked at and the recruiting has targetted our recent draft picks for that area.

This year im hoping for at least a top four. Will be disappointed not to get that far at least.

Now how about the Lions for make or break? They have failed to deliver since they were the only side in 95 to seriously challenge the Blues in that years finals. Where to for them? Surely they have been the 'next big things' in waiting far longer than the Hawks.

Cheers.
 
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#22
After watching both Hawthorn and Richmond on the weekend, and this is not to take the piss out of these sides, but both have glaring deficiencies.

Hawthorn's midfield is inconsistent, lacks class, and can't deliver to its forward line which is solid, all backed up by an excellent backline that lacks a rebounding defender on the ground.

As for Richmond, they are bloody awful and I cannot see them improving as long as they have Messrs Campbell, Knights et al in the midfield, a backline with no skill except for Cameron who lacks the pace to be too damaging and a forward line that lacks a genuine crumber now Daffy has been found out for what he is.

Of the two, Hawthorn may improve marginally in last year and Richmond, well they are going to finish worse.
 
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#23
As I mentioned once before, Hawthorn and Melbourne have lots of young talent and probably have 5 years to 'tune' their performance. Richmond could be rebuilding sooner rather than later. I agree on the Lions - can be described as 'full of young talent (but they are all getting older) or nothing without Voss.

All sides except Essendon and possibly Carlton were inconsistent last year and, thanks to the blight revolution at the Saints - all could have a good or bad year.

And on Richmond in '95 wasn't a rampant Richardson, Freezer's last good year and the adition of a rejuvenated Greg Dear from hawthorn instrumental in making the finals (and doing well) ?
 
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#24
While all Hawks fans were not too dissapointed at the results last year (best since 1991) The final against North should be examined. They were jumped early (by experience and a little luck) but came back with a wet sail. The sad statistic is that North only managed to beat Hawthorn and St Kilda in its last 10+ games last season. We should have gone to the preliminary, probably to be beaten by Melbourne (unless they repeated the 1987 performance)
 
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