Opinion Making the Case For Second Place

[eaglespremiers]

I think we match up well with Sydneys forward line

We have

Buddy - Schoefield / Gov
Tippett - Gov / Schoefield
Reid - if Buddy and Tippett play, Reid will play up the ground so I'd be happy for Shep or Wellingham to pick him up.
Goodes - Has slowed down and would be happy for Shep or Wellingham to match him up.

Plus they've lost probably their key play maker in Parker.

 

[Eagle got a win]

I think we match up well with Sydneys forward line

We have

Buddy - Schoefield / Gov
Tippett - Gov / Schoefield
Reid - if Buddy and Tippett play, Reid will play up the ground so I'd be happy for Shep or Wellingham to pick him up.
Goodes - Has slowed down and would be happy for Shep or Wellingham to match him up.

Good point well either way we'd do alright I think.
Happy with whatever comes 1st or 2nd bring it on.

 

[WCEprod]

They were saying on bounce that a prelim has to be played in Melbourne, is this true? If we finish second and freo and us both win our first final then we would have to play our prelim at the G?

 

[HoneyBadger35]

They were saying on bounce that a prelim has to be played in Melbourne, is this true? If we finish second and freo and us both win our first final then we would have to play our prelim at the G?

No, they changed the rule. Finals that we've earned the right to host will be at Subiaco regardless of what Fremantle or other clubs do.

But it's ok, it's not like the guy who said that has a responsibility to keep up to date with the league, not like he's an All Australian selector or anything.

 

[EagleEgo]

I think we match up well with Sydneys forward line

We have

Buddy - Schoefield / Gov
Tippett - Gov / Schoefield
Reid - if Buddy and Tippett play, Reid will play up the ground so I'd be happy for Shep or Wellingham to pick him up.
Goodes - Has slowed down and would be happy for Shep or Wellingham to match him up.

Agreed! Plus, Sydney has the weakest backlines and midfields of the top 4 at the moment. Also Sydney seems to have problem in beating the Hawthorn/Bulldogs/Eagles playing style.(losing to the Doggies, Hawthorn and Eagles in 2015)

 

[ChampRevesby]

Looking at seasons 2001 - 2014:

• Half of the grand finals were played between 1st and 2nd place
• The team that finished 1st played in 78.57% of grand finals (11/14).
• The team that finished 2nd played in 71.43% (10/14) of grand finals
• The team that finished 3rd played in 35.71% of grand finals (5/14)
• The team that finished 4th played in 14.29% of grand finals (2/14)
• Every grand final has featured either the 1st or 2nd place team, if not both
• The 1st place team has a win rate of 45.45% in grand finals
• The 2nd place team has a win rate of 60.00% in grand finals
• The 3rd place team has a win rate of 60.00% in grand finals
• The 4th place team has a win rate of 0.00% in grade finals
• The 1st place team has a win rate of 40.00% in grand finals against the 2nd place team
• The 2nd place team has a win rate of 60% in grand finals against the 1st place team
• No team outside of the top four has made the grand final
• No team outside of the top three has won the grand final
• The 1st place team has a win rate of 75% against teams outside of the top two (100% against 4th, 66.66% against 3rd)
• The 2nd place team has a win rate of 33.33% against teams outside of the top two (100% against 4th, 0% against 3rd)

Total Grand Final Tally:

• 2nd Place: 6 (60% win rate)
• 1st Place: 5 (45.45% win rate)
• 3rd Place: 3 (60% win rate)
• 4th Place: 0 (0% win rate)

So statistically, finishing second we have have the best chance of winning the flag.

 

[SpaceClef]

What a ChampRevesby

 

[eaglespremiers]

The 1st place team has a win rate of 40.00% in grand finals against the 2nd place team
The 2nd place team has a win rate of 60% in grand finals against the 1st place team

I guess those percentages make sense.

 

[ChampRevesby]

I guess those percentages make sense.

Be mathematically complete is the only correct there is

 

[Masto]

Shouldn't this thread be making a case for first place?

 

[Gizza]

Compare that with finishing 1st, where a shock loss hosting Sydney would see us needing to win a semi, then needing to beat Hawthorn at the MCG to make a Grand Final, with increased travel and several weeks away from home. No thanks.

Give me 2nd place please.

That's a pretty silly way to look at things. If we finish second we most likely play the Hawks first up over here. Win or lose that and we mostly likely meet them in the GF if we make it that far as they will either have a home prelim or probably meet the Dockers in a prelim at Subi, which I'd give them a good chance to win.

If we finish top on the other hand we should easily account for Sydney at home. If we can't, there we have no business being top 2 anyway. We do that and we either avoid the Hawks entirely until a GF, or get a chance to knock them out in a prelim at home after a weeks rest after them not having a break and having travelled to Perth twice in three weeks. I'd take that scenario any day of the week.

 

[Gizza]

They were saying on bounce that a prelim has to be played in Melbourne, is this true? If we finish second and freo and us both win our first final then we would have to play our prelim at the G?

Yes, in their minds where it's still the good old days of the VFL in the 80s. As for the last decade, no, it's not true at all.

 

[King LeBron]

Looking at seasons 2001 - 2014:

• Half of the grand finals were played between 1st and 2nd place
• The team that finished 1st played in 78.57% of grand finals (11/14).
• The team that finished 2nd played in 71.43% (10/14) of grand finals
• The team that finished 3rd played in 35.71% of grand finals (5/14)
• The team that finished 4th played in 14.29% of grand finals (2/14)
• Every grand final has featured either the 1st or 2nd place team, if not both
• The 1st place team has a win rate of 45.45% in grand finals
• The 2nd place team has a win rate of 60.00% in grand finals
• The 3rd place team has a win rate of 60.00% in grand finals
• The 4th place team has a win rate of 0.00% in grade finals
• The 1st place team has a win rate of 40.00% in grand finals against the 2nd place team
• The 2nd place team has a win rate of 60% in grand finals against the 1st place team
• No team outside of the top four has made the grand final
• No team outside of the top three has won the grand final
• The 1st place team has a win rate of 75% against teams outside of the top two (100% against 4th, 66.66% against 3rd)
• The 2nd place team has a win rate of 33.33% against teams outside of the top two (100% against 4th, 0% against 3rd)

Total Grand Final Tally:

• 2nd Place: 6 (60% win rate)
• 1st Place: 5 (45.45% win rate)
• 3rd Place: 3 (60% win rate)
• 4th Place: 0 (0% win rate)

So statistically, finishing second we have have the best chance of winning the flag.

Well we're most likely going to finish second, so I'm putting in a order for my WCE '2015 Premiers' shirt as we speak...

 

[ZergMinion]

I don't really care if we finish 1st or 2nd. This is mainly due to narrative. Sure squeezing the best mathematical chance for a flag out of the variables at hand is fun, but look at the narrative options for finishing 1st:

1) Deprive the Dockers of the minor premiership (which would be their first trophy of moderate significance).
2) Good chance of facing them in a prelim with a week off advantage and winning, and therefore crushing their purple spirit for possibly another decade, in a season where they didn't rate us as a threat. (Sure they could beat us and go on to win the whole thing, but hell...ultimate victory can't be attained without significant risk).

We'll win the premiership if we're good enough regardless of maths.

So given all that we actually cannot lose as long as we finish top 2, unless we lose that is.

 

[boondy]

Booing goodes off the ground in his last ever game as a losing prelim finalist is a tantalising prospect

I wont boo him i will respectfully shout piss off for goode you sook

 

[Biggie]

I'd like another crack at the Hawks with NN tbh.

 

[kerrazy]

It is important to note that if Fremantle finish second they will play the hawks. We all know how that will end up, Hawks will smash em. Do we want the hawks to get to a prelim and hence GF as easy as that?

I think we could defeat them with NicNat back, those idiots down the road are shit.

Then they would have to play 2 more finals just to make the GF. And if they do make the GF, they would have used more energy making it than we would.

Second could be better IMO.

 

[dajesmac]

Nah. First is best.

Much better chance of knocking off the Swans right now. If we can't bank on doing that we aren't a genuine flag threat. Would be comfortable with Hawthorn beating Fremantle in week 1 as we'd avoid them until the Grand Final. The Hawks are going to get there anyway.

 

[Jootube]

I will run naked down Hay street if hodge goes for 3

Won't happen

Copied, bookmarked, screenshot and written in stone.

 

[MWPP]

I'm a little torn!
First is growing on me more (now that I have even more faith in our team!) but second still seems like a safer option this year . I'll take either
Both are much better than 4th
Part of me was previously hoping we would finish third (so that we could carry the invaluable experience of playing Hawks in Melbourne forward for future years ) but again, as I have more faith in our team , I'm starting to believe that this year could be our year and that we should go for it!

 

[bassmanx]

I like 2nd. Rather meet Hawks in week 1 than in a Prelim.

This.

 

[The Passenger]

Said elsewhere but second most likely works better for us. I think we start favourites at home against anyone. 55/45 v Hawks. Away we are favourites to everyone but Hawthorn who are probably 60/40 favourites.

We should back ourselves to beat Hawks at home and we should have no drama's with Sydney or Freo in a Subiaco Prelim. Both teams have had major wobbles over the last two months and would need a particularly solid upswing in form, particularly Freo. On the negative side for us is the other three major contenders all have significant finals experience in recent years - as much as I hate to say it that does count for a bit.

Coming second, if we beat Hawks at home, we then set ourselves up with a Subi prelim and we push Hawks into a finals campaign that will almost certainly see them go Perth > Melbourne > Perth/Sydney (most likely Perth for a PF). That is a very tough run for them.

Coming first, it means Dockers wheels have fallen right off and most likely leads to us and Hawthorn both having home PF's (ours would likely be neutral against Fremantle).

If we come second and lose to Hawks we are still likely to spend the first three weekends of finals in Perth so it's not a total disaster. If we win that PF then playing a rested Hawks in the GF will not be easy.

With that being said we should be going all out to win the last two games and if Freo drop a game then we can take top spot. We have some serious momentum and lets not **** with it. Fremantle have completely lost theirs and are showing it's not a case of just turning it back on. Hawks have been stopping and started all years, so lets just hope they stay in second gear for finals, though you back them to go up a level. Sydney have never really got any serious momentum.

 

[Hardhat11]

First would normally be better however I think swans will be in better form than Hawks come finals ...buddy will be rested and raring to go

The good thing is we will know if first is possible by the time we play saints in the last round ......freo will have played port and we will know By the time we run out

I suspect of second is best to see a few late withdrawals and the AFL should be aware of this

 

[Suma Magic]

Am I the only one who thinks a Friday night prelim is an advantage?

 

[swannies]

Copied, bookmarked, screenshot and written in stone.

Lucky Keyser Soze is on the MRP then, isn't it?!