Covid-19 Welcome to Freedom

[BruceFromBalnarring]

They do, but it is a rare event. Was one of the issues with swine flu in 2009 in that it was30-50 year olds who seemed to be quite sick in hospital (and yes died)
This doesn’t detract from the point that omicron for the unvaccinated is probably in a similar ballpark of severity as swine flu (itself an illness where the vaccination did not have good effect)

The death rate from influenza for people aged up to 44yo is 0.1%
The death rate from Covid for people aged up to 49yo is 0.01%

 

[Crankyhawk]

The death rate from influenza for people aged up to 44yo is 0.1%
The death rate from Covid for people aged up to 49yo is 0.01%

Where did those numbers come from (the covid one seems right for vaccinated) I just like a source

 

[Chief]

The death rate from influenza for people aged up to 44yo is 0.1%
The death rate from Covid for people aged up to 49yo is 0.01%

Reference?

Even if we accept that, death isn't the only result of a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

What are the rates of development of Covid-19? Hospitalisation? ICU admission? Long term damage?

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Reference?

Even if we accept that, death isn't the only result of a SARS-CoV-2 infection.

What are the rates of development of Covid-19? Hospitalisation? ICU admission? Long term damage?

ABS.

On pure numbers, Covid has killed 110 <50yo in 2 years. Flu 21 in 2017.

But the question was whether influenza killed the young. It is more deadly by a factor of 10, though less infectious.

And nor is death the only consequence of influenza.

 

[Chief]

Sure, but what are those rates? The hospitals aren't full of influenza patients in ICU.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I was partly the one comparing swine flu (last epidemic flu we had in vic) will try to find numbers and age breakdowns (parliament documents say 3000 cases and 26 deaths)

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Sure, but what are those rates? The hospitals aren't full of influenza patients in ICU.

Not this last couple of years they're not.

Other years they certainly fill their fair share of beds.

Covid total so far for <50yos Cases 1,185,290. Hospitalisations I can't give you totals but current is 5,173 out of 411,875 cases. ICU 404. Ventilated 146.

I don't have time to look up the hospitalisation rates. You can. I think it's not unreasonable to assume a proportionately equivalent hospitalisation rate given the death rate.

I was simply pointing out that influenza does kill 30yos.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Re swine flu, its hard to find demographic data for under 40s/ under 50s, though there is this comment in the wiki article (yes I know, not high quality)

A WHO-supported 2013 study estimated that the 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ~10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count (18.631). Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons less than 65 years of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last nine months of 2009. The majority (62–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 years of age. The burden varied greatly among countries. There was an almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 years of age.[240]

(the full article here https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3841239/)

this article from MJA shortly after swine flu stated the median age of death from swine flu was 54 years of age

A pandemic response to a disease of predominantly seasonal intensity

A pandemic response to a disease of predominantly seasonal intensity

www.mja.com.au

 

[Crankyhawk]

Not this last couple of years they're not.

Other years they certainly fill their fair share of beds.

Covid total so far for <50yos Cases 1,185,290. Hospitalisations I can't give you totals but current is 5,173 out of 411,875 cases. ICU 404. Ventilated 146.

I don't have time to look up the hospitalisation rates. You can. I think it's not unreasonable to assume a proportionately equivalent hospitalisation rate given the death rate.

I was simply pointing out that influenza does kill 30yos.

would be very difficult to get cumulative totals for hospitalisation. I have data of total bed days for all patients with positive COVID results but someone who stays 10 days measures the same as 5 people staying 2 days each, not sure how useful it is.

edit that is for my hospital only.

 

[Chief]

I was simply pointing out that influenza does kill 30yos.

Fair enough. But not many from what I can see.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

would be very difficult to get cumulative totals for hospitalisation. I have data of total bed days for all patients with positive COVID results but someone who stays 10 days measures the same as 5 people staying 2 days each, not sure how useful it is.

edit that is for my hospital only.

Yep. My anecdotal (non-medically qualified) understanding is that there are some people who suffer long term consequences of influenza within the <50yo age bracket, which I think is the question being asked by Chief .

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Fair enough. But not many from what I can see.

Well more per case than Covid by a factor of 10 (and increasing).

 

[Chief]

ABS.

ABS site can be a bit hard to navigate - what's the link?

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

ABS site can be a bit hard to navigate - what's the link?

Try google. But you have to sift through various pages.

I'm not doing it again. Believe me or not, the figures are hardly gobsmacking.

 

[awaremind]

You do understand that for vaccination to not be preventing death the vaccinated death needs to run at 20:1 ratio…

Wouldn’t a substantial proportion of those not vaxxed not be by choice but due to pre existing health issues. My elderly (90ish) neighbours for example don’t want to risk vaccination as they told me several of thier friends died directly after being vaccinated. They don’t see it as an option.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Wouldn’t a substantial proportion of those not vaxxed not be by choice but due to pre existing health issues. My elderly (90ish) neighbours for example don’t want to risk vaccination as they told me several of thier friends died directly after being vaccinated. They don’t see it as an option.

thats still a choice. But on the flip side 90 year olds don't have much life years left to preserve, so its less of an issue than a 30 year old not getting vaccinated
there was erraneous interpretations by some medical practitioners about who should not be vaccinated (before guidelines properly wheeled out)
some will also be not vaxxed due to having covid and then getting a specific treatment where you should not be vaccinated for 3 months (sotrivumab)

 

[awaremind]

thats still a choice. But on the flip side 90 year olds don't have much life years left to preserve, so its less of an issue than a 30 year old not getting vaccinated
there was erraneous interpretations by some medical practitioners about who should not be vaccinated (before guidelines properly wheeled out)
some will also be not vaxxed due to having covid and then getting a specific treatment where you should not be vaccinated for 3 months (sotrivumab)

As to 30 yo getting covid and dying up until a couple of days ago there were 120 000 cases and 20 deaths in 30-39 yo males category that’s a one in 5000 death rate, not exactly Ebola is it. And applying the same principle you did of 90 yos only having a few years left, wtf did we throw the economy under the bus for something with a median death age of 88?

 

[Chief]

As to...

Shush. You're annoying.

 

[Crankyhawk]

As to 30 yo getting covid and dying up until a couple of days ago there were 120 000 cases and 20 deaths in 30-39 yo males category that’s a one in 5000 death rate, not exactly Ebola is it. And applying the same principle you did of 90 yos only having a few years left, wtf did we throw the economy under the bus for something with a median death age of 88?

i suppose the death age would have likely been lower had we not locked down (but would need to see what the data is from the US/ UIK/ Canada during pre vax covid, haven't got that to hand)
I do think that the view that we need to see what the true costs have been but thats not going to happen
and given what we have seen in omicron re supply and economic disruption, the shadow lockdown that might have occurred could also have had significant economic impact and still not impacted on deaths (ie worst of both worlds)

 

[awaremind]

i suppose the death age would have likely been lower had we not locked down (but would need to see what the data is from the US/ UIK/ Canada during pre vax covid, haven't got that to hand)
I do think that the view that we need to see what the true costs have been but thats not going to happen
and given what we have seen in omicron re supply and economic disruption, the shadow lockdown that might have occurred could also have had significant economic impact and still not impacted on deaths (ie worst of both worlds)

One of the most interesting things to do on google is google covid cases by country over time. Differerent places graphs look very different. Some of this could be due to reporting, but we should take statistics with good faith if we are to use them at all…

 

[Chief]

we should take statistics with good faith if we are to use them at all…

No, you look at their collection methodology.

You look at corroborating evidence.

If Romania's Covid official numbers are low but you have someone living there telling you the hospitals are treating people on the street under tarps, you reject the official stats.

 

[awaremind]

No, you look at their collection methodology.

You look at corroborating evidence.

If Romania's Covid official numbers are low but you have someone living there telling you the hospitals are treating people on the street under tarps, you reject the official stats.

That’s exactly the same thought process I’m using in Australia, when the stats say Myocarditis is 1 in 10000 but it’s happened to several of my friends, and people I’ve met keep telling me people are dropping dead after second jab of Pfizer .

 

[Chief]

Myocarditis is 1 in 10000 but it’s happened to several of my friends, and people I’ve met keep telling me people are dropping dead after second jab of Pfizer .

And the Romanian excess mortality stats are very high because deaths are hard to hide.

"83.9% in Romania and 88.2% in Bulgaria."

And experts are also probing stats and they don't add up.

And so on.

Not just "my mate says... "

 

[awaremind]

And the Romanian excess mortality stats are very high because deaths are hard to hide.

"83.9% in Romania and 88.2% in Bulgaria."

And experts are also probing stats and they don't add up.

And so on.

Not just "my mate says... "

Mobile goalposts eh

 

[Chief]

Mobile goalposts eh

I am happy for you to ignore the first post and go with that one that includes more facts, and admit the first one missed those facts.