Manikato Stakes - 25/9

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Thread starter #1
Acceptances are in for the night meeting this Friday @ Moonee Valley, including the Group 1, $500k Manikato Stakes over 1200m.

Markets are still being framed, however the field is:

1. 11-82391331- APACHE CAT(12) Damien Oliver 58.5 Greg Eurell 38-18-3-7 122
2. 3154-486610- DUPORTH(9) Luke Nolen 58.5 Anthony Cummings 13-3-0-1 106
3. 3563-31-2152- DANLEIGH(1) Kerrin McEvoy 58.5 Chris Waller 24-5-5-6 114
4. 4382426-751 TURFFONTEIN(13) Glen Boss 58.5 Anthony Cummings 25-4-5-5 108
5. 121021261-1 LUCKY SECRET(11) Brett Prebble 58.5 Tony Vasil 19-12-3-1 112
6. 1-3-1124314-1 NICCONI(6) Craig Williams 58.5 David Hayes 10-5-1-2 109
7. 111115-112 MIC MAC(4) Danny Nikolic 58.5 Greg Eurell 9-7-1-0 112
8. 087-1119720- SOLO FLYER(10) Douglas Whyte 58.5 Anthony Cummings 22-4-4-2 108
9. 112-1111 SWIFT ALLIANCE(7) Blake Shinn 58.5 Gai Waterhouse 7-6-1-0 105
10. 22411191-13 SECRET FLYER(3) Steven Arnold 58.5 Mark Young 21-9-3-3 103
11. 2849-113341- RUSSETING(2) Michael Rodd 56.5 Bart Cummings 23-9-2-4 104
12. 341217-30 PHELAN READY(8) Stathi Katsidis 52.0 Jason McLachlan 8-2-1-2 105
13. 1-3150-2 WANTED(5) Craig Newitt 52.0 Peter G Moody 6-2-1-1 91

Should be an absolute cracker!!
 

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Special mention to the Group 2 Stutt Stakes, worth $200k.
Nothing against the 10 runners, but it has to be the worst assembled Group 2 race in memory. Carrara looks nicely placed, but is up against a rating 60 maiden!!
 

Nuke

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#3
Hong Kong Vs Australia series ftw.
Doleuze and Cheng too.. All riding on the night :thumbsu:

That Manikato field is AWESOME. Safe to say the only idea on the race I have at this stage is that I wouldn't really want to be backing against Nicconi...

It isn't the best Stutt field on paper ever, but there's a few at least handy performers in it! ...safe to say, I'll be at the very least cheering on Red Colossus (green horses + MV don't usually mix well though..)

To be honest, the standout of the night to me at this stage is in the last race... :cool:

I wonder if the track races like it did this night last year :thumbsdown:
 

Colin D'Cops

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#4
My tips for Friday's card are;
R1 - 4 / Rose Syrah
R2 - 1 / Common Interest
R3 - 3 / Running Riot
R4 - 6 / Pre Eminence
R5 - 4 / Star Scream
R6 - 7 / Mic Mac
R7 - 8 / Luce Del Mare
R8 - 6 / Young Centaur
 

mi_hrvati

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#5
Jebus it is going to be a corker of a manikado. Mic mac goes back in distance but nicconi is a superstar. It is going to be a ripper. Then there is the champion apache cat, the valley lover lucky secret, secret flyer (prob cant win) and the up and comers swift alliance, duporth (bit early?) and danleigh. I really dont know, id say its a race where i will be deciding 5mins before the jump
 
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#6
Special mention to the Group 2 Stutt Stakes, worth $200k.
Nothing against the 10 runners, but it has to be the worst assembled Group 2 race in memory. Carrara looks nicely placed, but is up against a rating 60 maiden!!
I think that's a bit harsh BP. Traditionally the stutt stakes is not that great a field as the best 3 yr olds have ran in the preludes the weekend before and the stutt is more the fringe type looking to move up the elimination order in the guineas. But you are right and it's not the best edition ever

I actually hope like Nuke that Red Colossus can get up as I had a go at him for the guineas before his debut @ 81 then again after he won @ 41.
He's out to 61 now but Eurell sounded reasonably confident the horse would go ok this morning on 927

As for the Manikato it's a great edition with a top notch field.
I have disgarded these as winning hopes Daneleigh (too short and the valley), solo flyer (not good enough),
Russeting (not up to these) and I don't think the 2 3 yr olds could win. But that still leaves 8 and it's a great 8. Was really impressed with Lucky Secret in Sydney and if the track is dead he will be a huge show, I have my doubts on Duporth, Swift Alliance keeps stepping up but this is hard, Mic Mac is fit and is a winner here, Apache Cat if he comes with his a game he would win, turfontein not sure he can win this, nicconi is a star and secret flyer will be storming home. Well thats them and I am still no closer to deciding all depends on how many pots I get down by 9.20 friday night
 

Ron

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#7
If Lucky Secret can get to the front from his wide draw then he will win i reckon. Once he gets in front it is very hard to run him down.

I wouldn't be backing Apache Cat, has flopped his last two times he was first up. Probably needs a run or two to get to his peak.
 

NJ1983

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#8
If Lucky Secret can get to the front from his wide draw then he will win i reckon. Once he gets in front it is very hard to run him down.

I wouldn't be backing Apache Cat, has flopped his last two times he was first up. Probably needs a run or two to get to his peak.
Lucky Secret = Moral

Get the $4.80 while you can.

Heard on the radio that the first bet taken was $300 win Russeting @ 50-1.

Has Bart have improved her out of sight?
 
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Thread starter #9
Odds for the Manikato, courtesy of Tab.com.au

Nicconi $4.00
Mic Mac $4.40
Lucky Secret $4.80
Apache Cat $7.50
Swift Alliance $9.00
Secret Flyer $10.00
Wanted $16.00
Danleigh $16.00
Duporth $18.00
Phelan Ready $26.00
Turffontein $31.00
Solo flyer $41.00
Russeting $51.00
 
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Thread starter #10
Lucky Secret has drifted, out to $5 now. Mic Mac out 10c to $4.50.
Working on a speed map now, but I do like where Nicconi "should" be positioned during the run.
 
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Thread starter #11
In the Stutt Stakes, Carrara has a stranglehold on the opening market, at $1.75. Those keen on Red Colossus, you can get $10.

The other race currently available on Fixed odds is the Champagne Stakes. Avenue holds favortism at $2.70. If Rostova is ever going to win again, Friday night might be it meeting the field at set weights. She is currently $4.40 .
 

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Rough_Edges

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#12
wowee!

Unbelievable Field.

I think I will just watch on Friday night. Will be to nervous to punt. Go Saints :)
 

Nuke

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#14
The other race currently available on Fixed odds is the Champagne Stakes. Avenue holds favortism at $2.70.
And my first impressions on that race are, they won't be beating Avenue. Just like her sisters (Virage De Fortune and Glasnost), she flies around this track, she has pace, this night tends to play towards the on-pacers and she will win the Champagne (which VDF also did! although she was a better/classier/more proven filly).

Although you're right, if Rostova is going to win again in this class, this is probably her race. She's had an interrupted prep though.
 
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Thread starter #15
Nuke, have you had a go @ Red Colossus?
Now into $9.

Weather will definitely play a part in this meeting. Forecast is for scattered showers, tending to Rain. So if you like a wet-tracker, suggest you get on today, before the boys at TAB review the market.
 

Nuke

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lol nah mate. I rarely, if ever, bet on horses a couple days out (let alone weeks out ala Guineas). The up and down weather/not knowing what the track is like and importantly for this meeting how it is racing, plus my misgivings about him visiting the Valley the first time and still being green as grass is enough to make me cautious. But hey, his only start on a genuinely wet track he won easily.... in a weak Ballarat maiden.
All that said, I'm confident he has the raw talent to win the race :)
 

Lockyer24

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#18
Manikato - awesome race.

How do you choose who to back when you've backed Lucky Secret, Swift Alliance, Mic Mac and Nicconi all in the last couple of weeks?
Have to make a decision with your head obviously, one rule I always have in these type of races is 'pick class' and Mic Mac appears to be the one.
Although he is a WFA star his ideal distance will always be 1200-1400 I think. Same as the Cat he will step back and be too good I think.

Nicconi is in for a monster Spring though, Lucky Secret deserves this and is close to unbeatable on this track fresh, and Swift Alliance I am very reluctantly not sticking with only because he's been up for so long.

Obviously there are others with a chance, but Secret Flyer wants Flemington I think, and Apache Cat is a wait and see after his first up flop last time (from memory).

After backing Carrara his first 5 starts, then jumping off him only for him to win twice, I have come crawling back with my tail in between my legs. Although won't be betting anything silly.

Bobby Beecroft really talked up Rose Syrah in the BB thread before she stepped out and the tail end of her last prep was sensational..she really blossomed. Can't wait to see how she returns.

Big race for Shocking, needs to run well to show he is on track for Cups although I wouldn't back him straight out.
 

Ricketts

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Wanted was a BB'er after his 1st-up run, but i can't have hm here.
Really like Nicconi. Agree with BlackPrince he should be positioned well from (6)
 
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Speed map for the Manikato is doing my head in. Especially when it's at the Valley, most likely on a Slow/Heavy and where a clear bias will be pronounced by say Race 3.

The easiest call is Nicconi. Gate 6, will possie up no worse than midfield, with cover, ready for the final go at say the 350m mark, similar to the McEwan Stakes.

Word around is that there is not much pace in the race. I tend to disagree given that Apache Cat (12), Turffontein (13), Lucky Secret (11), Solo Flyer (10), prefer to be either on the pace or thereabouts. This points me to suggest it will be a mad scramble to position in the first 200m. Given he is 1st up, I am thinking that Apache Cat may drop back.

I see Mic Mac being on the inside of Nicconi, possible 1 length back but hoping for the rail to open up.

The more I look at this race, the more I love it. You can make cases for most, if not all the runners. Sure Phelan Ready is out of his depth, but his MM and Slipper wins were on wet tracks, so you cannot dismiss completely. Even Daneligh at good e/w odds, has had a number of trials so he will be fit and ready to go. Plus his record on rain affected going is sound, pushing Black Pirahna to less than a length in the Stradbroke.

So many chances IMO with the track and conditions.
 

NJ1983

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#24
Word around is that there is not much pace in the race. I tend to disagree given that Apache Cat (12), Turffontein (13), Lucky Secret (11), Solo Flyer (10), prefer to be either on the pace or thereabouts. This points me to suggest it will be a mad scramble to position in the first 200m. Given he is 1st up, I am thinking that Apache Cat may drop back.
Have to disagree.

Usually in these big sprints there is 1 or 2 speed machines who ensure a strong pace.

While the horses you mention may like to settle handy they do not have speed to burn.

I think Lucky Secret will cross, slow them up and be very very very hard to beat.

But hey, I've been wrong many times before!!!
 
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