Matthew Guy. Can a mediocre leader with a 3rd rate team win government?

[nobbyiscool]

Pesutto is widely regarded as their best leader - but do they risk a marginal seat Leader? He's only just ahead on current counting

It’s not traditionally marginal though at a state level though. Kennedy was an accidental winner during the Danslide, and I’m not sure teals are long for state level contests. Too expensive, not enough payoff, not enough influence - and centred around an issue that states have marginal influence on and the current govt isn’t too bad on (sans the old growth forest logging issue. As a gen y Tasmanian originally, I feel like I’m in a time warp…)

I think in the medium term it’ll be a safe liberal seat, cos it’ll revert to that pre-teal, inner east thing where the Greens end up the 2CP opponent but can never win enough preferences.

 

[Saint]

Every Lib party member ive spoken to (in SE) is desperate for him to get the mantle. strong belief he is one of they few who can bring back the teals, and hold onto the conservatives

Having the Federal election more than a year before the State election will be a big help for the Libs at the next state election.

 

[kalex6251]

It’s not traditionally marginal though at a state level though. Kennedy was an accidental winner during the Danslide, and I’m not sure teals are long for state level contests. Too expensive, not enough payoff, not enough influence - and centred around an issue that states have marginal influence on and the current govt isn’t too bad on (sans the old growth forest logging issue. As a gen y Tasmanian originally, I feel like I’m in a time warp…)

I think in the medium term it’ll be a safe liberal seat, cos it’ll revert to that pre-teal, inner east thing where the Greens end up the 2CP opponent but can never win enough preferences.

not so sure this years fed election was an aberration .... the teal movement was pushed forward by retired, educated and financially secure folk who have probably now got a taste for causing trouble .... these people have time and money on their hands and keeping their elected representatives on their toes is just the kind of passion project that will appeal (dont under-estimate the sense of community that emerged during these campaigns - it will have a legacy effect)

frydenberg, wilson et al will want to think seriously about another tilt at politics - these people wont let them forget

 

[Ned_Flanders]

not so sure this years fed election was an aberration .... the teal movement was pushed forward by retired, educated and financially secure folk who have probably now got a taste for causing trouble .... these people have time and money on their hands and keeping their elected representatives on their toes is just the kind of passion project that will appeal (dont under-estimate the sense of community that emerged during these campaigns - it will have a legacy effect)

frydenberg, wilson et al will want to think seriously about another tilt at politics - these people wont let them forget

this cliche of who teals are is so wrong its not funny

 

[peetoo]

I'd believe he would be supporting Pesutto based off his earlier posts (on the proviso - increasingly likely - that Pesutto wins Hawthorn)

The assumptions being made on preferences are interesting. Teal v labor neck and neck with green preferences to push one ahead

If it’s teal, they’re a chance, if labor, then teal preferences will flow to liberal you’d expect.

Short answer the voted who abandoned libs last time out have left labor, but not gone back to libs

 

[peetoo]

not so sure this years fed election was an aberration .... the teal movement was pushed forward by retired, educated and financially secure folk who have probably now got a taste for causing trouble .... these people have time and money on their hands and keeping their elected representatives on their toes is just the kind of passion project that will appeal (dont under-estimate the sense of community that emerged during these campaigns - it will have a legacy effect)

frydenberg, wilson et al will want to think seriously about another tilt at politics - these people wont let them forget

Surely they’ll run females the teal seats?

 

[nobbyiscool]

not so sure this years fed election was an aberration .... the teal movement was pushed forward by retired, educated and financially secure folk who have probably now got a taste for causing trouble .... these people have time and money on their hands and keeping their elected representatives on their toes is just the kind of passion project that will appeal (dont under-estimate the sense of community that emerged during these campaigns - it will have a legacy effect)

frydenberg, wilson et al will want to think seriously about another tilt at politics - these people wont let them forget

The teal movement, at it's core, was pushed forward by one wealthy activist.

To push forward independent of Holmes a Court, and to truly harness the collective power of those educated and financially secure people, they need to organise. Which typically is too hard and too time consuming for this demographic of people. It's why they were so quick to flock to Howard embracing them and throwing middle class welfare at them - they'll attach themselves to movements, but they won't start them.

 

[nobbyiscool]

this cliche of who teals are is so wrong its not funny

I dunno man, it seems to me like a party marketed to tree tories that couldn't bring themselves to vote Green.

 

[kalex6251]

this cliche of who teals are is so wrong its not funny

this 'cliche' accurately depicts the type of voter drawn to the movement in the area im familiar with .... the sense of community engagement it has ignited is unbelievable

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I dunno man, it seems to me like a party marketed to tree tories that couldn't bring themselves to vote Green.

its a small part of it - but not the majority

most are liberal moderates - its just they believe in climate change and arent racist *s

the teals will return home if given a reason to SOON

the longer they are outside the tent however, the more a perma split between the wets and the dries is likely

 

[nobbyiscool]

its a small part of it - but not the majority

most are liberal moderates - its just they believe in climate change and arent racist *s

the teals will return home if given a reason to SOON

the longer they are outside the tent however, the more a perma split between the wets and the dries is likely

So they're pretty much tree tories? Climate change accepters, socially liberal, economic conservative...

The difference between tree tories and liberal moderates are a couple of policy issues - generally 1. public services vs privatisation (including health and education), and 2. workplace relations.

These are the same issues that stop centrist parties from ever being longterm concerns - it's cos if you try to stand for nothing on particular major issues, you inevitably stand for something in doing so. (David Pocock has discovered that in the Senate in the last week.)

That's without the Catherine Cummings' of the world inevitably exposing themselves as frauds on social issues, which have tripped up many an arsehole.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

So they're pretty much tree tories? Climate change accepters, socially liberal, economic conservative...

The difference between tree tories and liberal moderates are a couple of policy issues - generally 1. public services vs privatisation (including health and education), and 2. workplace relations.

These are the same issues that stop centrist parties from ever being longterm concerns - it's cos if you try to stand for nothing on particular major issues, you inevitably stand for something in doing so. (David Pocock has discovered that in the Senate in the last week.)

That's without the Catherine Cummings' of the world inevitably exposing themselves as frauds on social issues, which have tripped up many an arsehole.

and they what they want - its just that climate and the other stuff was the focus for the election

if you think they are just rich *s who think planting a tree saves the world, you understand the teals as much as sky news does

FWIW I live in teal territory, and this has been a long time coming (libs have been shitting on the wets since Howard sidelined them in the 90s)

 

[nobbyiscool]

and they what they want - its just that climate and the other stuff was the focus for the election

if you think they are just rich *s who think planting a tree saves the world, you understand the teals as much as sky news does

FWIW I live in teal territory, and this has been a long time coming (libs have been shitting on the wets since Howard sidelined them in the 90s)

I think you perhaps misunderstand the tree tory.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I think you perhaps misunderstand the tree tory.

I live in Glen Iris - Im well aware (its a phrase thats older than the teals by a long way)

 

[nobbyiscool]

I live in Glen Iris - Im well aware (its a phrase thats older than the teals by a long way)

I dunno man, it seems to me like a party marketed to tree tories that couldn't bring themselves to vote Green.

 

[kalex6251]

 

[Ned_Flanders]

You are still not getting it nobbyiscool - they are not tree tories, thats a different beast

They are not arch conservatives who just like conservation (be it national parks or old as * building). Their volunteers were mostly sub 45 (unlike the libs which is most older), and their issues are more in line with their gen than liberal dries

look up what the wets are - turnbull and frydo are the closest they probably have to as prominent examples, but strictly speaking both are at the right edge of the wets. Right now, the ALP right is probably the best living example (until the teals bobbed up) of current version of what the wets want/believe in

a great example is Menzies. All the s**t Sky News say his party is about is 100% wrong. He formed the Libs as the party of small business and moderate conservatism after the UAP. Even better Malcolm Fraser - the most hated Liberal in ALP history, he wouldnt even survive preselection today because he'd be considered a woke leftie

 

[nobbyiscool]

You are still not getting it nobbyiscool - they are not tree tories, thats a different beast

Oh, I get it, but what I wanted to say makes me sound like a know-it-all jerk.

Glen Iris? That's cute.

I spent the 90s and the early 2000s in Tasmania as an activist for the Greens when they held the balance of power, when we were blockading old growth native forests, when we were (successfully) defeating the pulp mill, when Peter Garrett betrayed all of us.

We invented the terms tree tories, watermelons et al.

You can't tell me nothin about tree tories or greens.

See what my conundrum was with sounding like a jerk?

The disagreement isn't caused by my misunderstanding of teals, it's caused by your misunderstanding of tree tories.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Oh, I get it, but what I wanted to say makes me sound like a know-it-all jerk.

Glen Iris? That's cute.

I spent the 90s and the early 2000s in Tasmania as an activist for the Greens when they held the balance of power, when we were blockading old growth native forests, when we were (successfully) defeating the pulp mill, when Peter Garrett betrayed all of us.

We invented the terms tree tories, watermelons et al.

You can't tell me nothin about tree tories or greens.

See what my conundrum was with sounding like a jerk?

The disagreement isn't caused by my misunderstanding of teals, it's caused by your misunderstanding of tree tories.

Tassie? LOL, tassie liberals arent exactly the hardcore dries we have on the mainland.

now i get where you are coming from

 

[peetoo]

How much is deaths?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Tassie? LOL, tassie liberals arent exactly the hardcore dries we have on the mainland.

now i get where you are coming from

Possibly why tassie liberals seem a s**t tonne more intelligent than the mainlanders

 

[nobbyiscool]

Tassie? LOL, tassie liberals arent exactly the hardcore dries we have on the mainland.

now i get where you are coming from

There's a reason they're the one electable Liberal government in the country, away from the nats, religious extremists, and the focus of Sky news.

I don't agree with them on 90% of things, but I can't argue that they've been a successful and electable government under multiple Premiers now.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Possibly why tassie liberals seem a s**t tonne more intelligent than the mainlanders

100% agree!

 

[Ned_Flanders]

There's a reason they're the one electable Liberal government in the country, away from the nats, religious extremists, and the focus of Sky news.

I don't agree with them on 90% of things, but I can't argue that they've been a successful and electable government under multiple Premiers now.

Tassie is a very different beast because of its isolation (in part) and its system (significantly). The parties have to work together to get anything done, so it hasnt followed the zero sum politics we have right now.

and thats a good thing to enjoy

 

[Crankyhawk]

Dim Tim is on abc right now as a “private citizen commentator” and was making semi sensible points though also claims he provided policy around health, education and strategy which was “ignored by the powers that be”