Matty's Value Bets.

mattys123

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Thread starter #26
I heard a very interesting statement once when discussing some juicy odds on a particular sporting contest "good value, a bet is only good value if it wins". This was from the head guy a Centrebet.

Im taking the Tottenham rebound and the Arsenal / Chelsea / Liverpool multi.
Hmm, what a surprise, a comment from a guy who wants your wins to be small, and your losses to be big.

Let's analyze tomorrow's EPL game's, in fact, let's analyze what would happen to a value better vs a favourites better over an entire season.

The draw tomorrow is 3.40, while Chelsea, Liverpool and to a lesser extent Arsenal are well under 1.50.

To win 3.40 on these bets, you would have to get Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal all to win, which while likely, on most occasions just doesnt happen.

On the other hand, If the "value punter" lands the draw, then they have in one bet, achieved what it took in 3 bets and most likely 4-5 bets the favourites punter to achieve.

I prefer betting on value bets and multis, as the returns are higher, and long term I actually don't need as many bets to be successful to make a profit, which over the past 12 months I have been doing with sports betting.

Use your own approach though, gambling is quite simply about using your own approach, not someone elses, as you are ultimately trying to make your gambling both successful and entertaining, and let's face it, long term losses are not going to be entertaining.

Sorry for the bit of a rant, but it will happen from time to time.:p:)

Now I'm off to create a few EPL/Europa Cup multis for tomorrow morning, 2 of my multis got up today (out of 8) so I am well in front over the past 24 hours (thanks mostly to the Queensland Roar).
 

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BarryG

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#27
Matty, i agree with you, just thought it was a "value" bets thread and thought i'd add to the discussion. I have over the past few months moved to a style similar to what you are talking about, its amazing when you gamble how you start to notice how many $1.20 favourites actually lose. I suppose the odds are reflective of the money wagered only.

I like EPL games and try to find a $2 plus option. We all know if you take 10 $1.10 favourites you will probably get 7 or 8 and end up behind. Footy tipping would be much easier if favourites won all the time. I also try to avoid Arsenal/Chelsea/Liverpool/Man U unless they are playing each other unless i occaissionly multi them like i did this morning. Tottenham should cover that loss and i will not do it again. $2.12 for three legs, what was i thinking.
 
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