Max King

[joop]

Where were you when they were handing out senses of humour? I imagine you having a face like you’ve been sucking a lemon, hopefully that is not correct.

ahh boomer, got it.

 

[PJays]

But without reason you will not project his performance over the next 6 rounds where he looks to have every chance of doing well. Why? Why start the thread if you are not confident he will do well and extend his current good form?

I just answered that question in my last post

Individual form is really difficult to predict, and depends on individual confidence levels and intangibles.

Form is fickle, there's short term swings and roundabouts, but long term trajectory is easier to see.

This is why, for example, I've tipped Melbourne for this year's premiership but I have no idea whether they'll go 3-3 or 6-0 over the next 6. Looking at their next 6 games, 3-3 would be a modest return for a reigning premier. But if they do only go 3-3, leaving them 6-3 then it wouldn't change my premiership tip. It would just mean they've had a stretch without playing their best footy. And there could be any number of (short term) reasons for that.

Yet based on what they did last year and based on their talent level, I expect Melbourne to remain a very strong team for at least the next couple of years, barring catastrophic injuries to some of their good players. That long term assessment of mine won't change, regardless of whether they go 3-3 or 6-0 in their next 6.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I just answered that question in my last post

Individual form is really difficult to predict, and depends on individual confidence levels and intangibles.

Form is fickle, there's short term swings and roundabouts, but long term trajectory is easier to see.

This is why, for example, I've tipped Melbourne for this year's premiership but I have no idea whether they'll go 3-3 or 6-0 over the next 6. Looking at their next 6 games, 3-3 would be a modest return for a reigning premier. But if they do only go 3-3, leaving them 6-3 then it wouldn't change my premiership tip. It would just mean they've had a stretch without playing their best footy. And there could be any number of (short term) reasons for that.

Yet based on what they did last year and based on their talent level, I expect Melbourne to remain a very strong team for at least the next couple of years, barring catastrophic injuries to some of their good players. That long term assessment of mine won't change, regardless of whether they go 3-3 or 6-0 in their next 6.

You started a whole thread on the main board to tell us Max King has arrived at elite level but you have no idea whether he is more likely or not to perform at elite level over the next 6 weeks? And that you’d like to hedge your bets just in case he hasn’t arrived as yet.

Fmd PJays.

So you now seem to be saying he hasn’t arrived at elite level, and you have joined the “many people raving about his potential for years” camp.

You started a thread to say Max King will be an elite AFL key forward about 4-5 years after the rest of the football world predicted the same.

 

[PJays]

You started a whole thread on the main board to tell us Max King has arrived at elite level but you have no idea whether he is more likely or not to perform at elite level over the next 6 weeks? And that you’d like to hedge your bets just in case he hasn’t arrived as yet.

Fmd PJays.

So you now seem to be saying he hasn’t arrived at elite level, and you have joined the “many people raving about his potential for years” camp.

You started a thread to say Max King will be an elite AFL key forward about 4-5 years after the rest of the football world predicted the same.

I started the thread to discuss Max King and get people's views- is he going to become the next Buddy (like Ben Dixon suggested) a generational superstar, or will he just become the next Tom Lynch- a quality big forward who occasionally flirts with All Australian selection?

And how will he go this year- continue his recent form which would put him in Coleman contention (60-70 goals) or peter off a little and just continue a gradual upwards incline from last year (say 45-50 goals for this year)?

I've always seen massive potential about Max King. And I have always been super confident he’ll become elite.

There's been hype around King. But, there’s plenty of hyped young KPFs who never get there for various reasons- J Patton, T Boyd, J Hogan, P McCartin good examples- and this thread was also about recognizing that King’s now starting to really prove himself. He’s on the cusp of genuine eliteness.

But whether he’ll be playing at that elite level for the next 6 weeks, who knows.

Will he kick 10 goals or 25 goals over the next 6? Who knows, but it wouldn't change his long term trajectory or the fact that over the last 12 games he's really signaled his arrival.

 

[Munga]

I might as well put in my tip for how many career goals he'll kick, and check on this in a decade if I'm still alive.

He'd be doing well to finish above 600 goals. He's had a late start due to injuries, he was nearly 20 years old for first match!

I'm thinking a decade playing, maybe missing another season due to injuries, 60ish goals a year... 600 total seems doable.

If he plays a lot of finals though, 700 could be a shot.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I started the thread to discuss Max King and get people's views- is he going to become the next Buddy (like Ben Dixon suggested) a generational superstar, or will he just become the next Tom Lynch- a quality big forward who occasionally flirts with All Australian selection?

And how will he go this year- continue his recent form which would put him in Coleman contention (60-70 goals) or peter off a little and just continue a gradual upwards incline from last year (say 45-50 goals for this year)?

I've always seen massive potential about Max King. And I have always been super confident he’ll become elite.

There's been hype around King. But, there’s plenty of hyped young KPFs who never get there for various reasons- J Patton, T Boyd, J Hogan, P McCartin good examples- and this thread was also about recognizing that King’s now starting to really prove himself. He’s on the cusp of genuine eliteness.

But whether he’ll be playing at that elite level for the next 6 weeks, who knows.

Will he kick 10 goals or 25 goals over the next 6? Who knows, but it wouldn't change his long term trajectory or the fact that over the last 12 games he's really signaled his arrival.

Patton did 3 ACL’s.

Boyd suffered mental health issues and retired early.

Hogan lost his father and went off the rails a bit or more vaguely put, struggled mentally, but still may yet end his career decently. We have seen the effect this same thing has had on Dayne Beams and Dustin Martin, to name two players.

McCartin had a load of concussions.

There is no real reason to believe that had these players not suffered extremely difficult setbacks, that they wouldn’t have become elite key position forwards.

Former Pick 2 Josh Schache may be a better example of what you are saying here. But how many other key position players who went top 5 in the draft have actually failed to become elite AFL players when given a fair run at it?

2000 Riewoldt = yes, Koschitzke = no, Not sure if we call pick 4 Livingston a KPP at 192cms, but if so, no.

2001 Polak = no, but had his career curtailed after 6 seasons due to an accident outside football.

2002 Tim Walsh = No, career seems to have been wrecked by injuries.

2003 Nil

2004 Roughead = yes, Franklin = yes

2005 Josh Kennedy = yes

2006 Gumbleton = no, career ruined by injuries

2007 Hansen = no, injury hampered career, Leuenberger(ruck) = no, injury hampered career

2008 Nil

2009 Naitanui(ruck) = yes, Hurley = yes(2 x AA)

2010 Nil

2011 Sam Day = no, injury hampered career

2012 Hogan = no, but bordered on elite performance and seemingly had a bad setback, Patton = no, career effectively destroyed by 3 x ACL’s

2013 Nil

2014 Tom Boyd = no, career curtailed by mental health issues but no doubt showed elite capabilities

2015 McCartin = no, initial part of his career destroyed by successive concussions, now showing great signs as a key defender.

2016 Weitering = yes, Schache = no

2017 Nil

2018 Max King = tracking well to reach elite level, Lukosius - maybe not a true key position player at this point, tracking well.

2019 Luke Jackson(ruck) shooting the lamps out so far

2020 Ugle-Hagan, Thilthorpe, MacDonald all too early to tell but all shown good signs.

2021 Darcy, Andrew - both possibly rucks, neither have played as yet.


I have gone through those and highlighted the ones I think have had a fair run to allow us to judge one way or the other, and have reached a point in their careers where they can be fairly judged.

7 out of the 12-13 key position or ruck players taken top 5 in the draft since 2000 who appear to have had a fair run at their career, have reached what I think would be generally recognised as elite level. Of course it depends how you define things, but over the last couple of decades it is probably fair to say that a top 5 selected kpp or ruck has a better than 50% chance of making elite level where he doesn’t face catastrophic difficulties. And of the approximately 12-13 players who have met that criteria, you would say Riewoldt, Franklin, Naitanui, and perhaps even Josh Kennedy have enjoyed multiple seasons as clearly the best player in their role in the AFL.

Even if you include all the catastrophic players, 7 of the 19 taken top 5 between 2000 and 2016 have clearly reached elite level.

So I am not sure Max King is beating the odds if he becomes an elite key forward as you seem to be suggesting. Even if he spends multiple seasons as the best key forward in the game, he was probably at least a roughly 25% chance to do that once he was taken top 5 in the draft.

 

[PrinceCharles]

Think the risk for the Saints is the attraction of going to the Suns to play with his brother. Hopefully he sticks around.

 

[Harvey to Hayes]

Think the risk for the Saints is the attraction of going to the Suns to play with his brother. Hopefully he sticks around.

That's like me saying I hope McKay sticks around the Blues when the allure of joining his brother at North must be eating away at him..

 

[PrinceCharles]

That's like me saying I hope McKay sticks around the Blues when the allure of joining his brother at North must be eating away at him..

It's not like that at all, Saints, Roos & Suns are all pretty much in the same boat in terms of crowds, future prospects etc.

 

[PhatBoy]

He looks like he has all the tools to dominate for quite a while but it’s very hard with tall forwards to get your predictions correct. Even the ones that are - Hawkins was called a future superstar basically from
His first match and it was 5 seasons before he even locked down a spot - you often have to wait a while for it all to click on a regular basis. Others emerge early like Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

33

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

then get found out a bit if they don’t have enough dimensions to their game. I don’t see any reason why king wouldn’t turn into a long term gun

 

[Saints TV]

It's not like that at all, Saints, Roos & Suns are all pretty much in the same boat in terms of crowds, future prospects etc.

We're in the same boat in terms of crowds? hahahaha I suppose we're in the same boat with memberships too? Yikes.

 

[PrinceCharles]

We're in the same boat in terms of crowds? hahahaha I suppose we're in the same boat with memberships too? Yikes.

 

[Saints TV]

W

View attachment 1364993

Why are you referencing 2019 crowds?

Wouldn't this be more relevant?

 

[PrinceCharles]

W

Why are you referencing 2019 crowds?

Wouldn't this be more relevant?

Because it's the last full normal season, no a sample size of three is not relevant.

 

[g_TRAIN]

It's not like that at all, Saints, Roos & Suns are all pretty much in the same boat in terms of crowds, future prospects etc.

And I suppose you think Carlton has prospects?

20 years of being an absolute joke of a club after you got caught cheating (In which time we have beaten you 20-8)

Surely you don't think your 3-0 start to the year means you are not still shit? It's going to take a fair bit more than that pal.

 

[PrinceCharles]

And I suppose you think Carlton has prospects?

20 years of being an absolute joke of a club after you got caught cheating (In which time we have beaten you 20-8)

Surely you don't think your 3-0 start to the year means you are not still shit? It's going to take a fair bit more than that pal.

How many spoons is it again?

 

[g_TRAIN]

How many spoons is it again?

And how many have we won in your lifetime? And how many has Carlton won in your lifetime?

In the last 20 years, you have won 5 wooden spoons we have won 1.

Please let's talk more about wooden spoons.

 

[PrinceCharles]

And how many have we won in your lifetime? And how many has Carlton won in your lifetime?

In the last 20 years, you have won 5 wooden spoons we have won 1.

Please let's talk more about wooden spoons.

lol Saints

 

[g_TRAIN]

lol Saints

Well, I would rather be us than you.

 

[PrinceCharles]

Well, I would rather be us than you.

I've seen more flags than you've had in your entire history.

 

[lewdogs]

King just signed a contract to 2026, playing for the club he supported as a kid, grew up down the road. But sure he's going to request a trade to Gold Coast, no doubt

 

[Veer Right]

Rather Max let his football do the talking. OP comes across as a Richmond flog pumping up our own player/s to opposition supporters.

 

[PJays]

Rather Max let his football do the talking. OP comes across as a Richmond flog pumping up our own player/s to opposition supporters.

What a disappointing and crap take this is. My post was better than 90% of the shyte that gets written around here. Actually contained some mildly interesting statistics and historical context around a current player

"Let his footy do the talking"

Yeah, let's not bother discussing footy. The footy players let their footy do the talking, so let's not bother talking about it

Shut Big Footy down already.

What a terrible take, seriously

 

[g_TRAIN]

What a disappointing and crap take this is. My post was better than 90% of the shyte that gets written around here. Actually contained some mildly interesting statistics and historical context around a current player

"Let his footy do the talking"

Yeah, let's not bother discussing footy. The footy players let their footy do the talking, so let's not bother talking about it

Shut Big Footy down already.

What a crap take seriously

I agree with him to be honest.

I have sympathy for you though as a fellow Saints man who also wants to celebrate a potential superstar but these are the type of threads I dread.

If an opposition supporter makes it then fine but it kind of comes off a bit weird when we do it to our own players.

 

[PJays]

I agree with him to be honest.

I have sympathy for you though as a fellow Saints man who also wants to celebrate a potential superstar but these are the type of threads I dread.

If an opposition supporter makes it then fine but it kind of comes off a bit weird when we do it to our own players.

No worries, next time I'll start a thread on that draft's #1 pick, Sam Walsh

Cos you know, I watch heaps of Carlton matches and I know Walsh's game inside out

I've done plenty of research on him, and I'll contribute something worthwhile. People will love it

Yeah, I watch Carlton every week.

And some forum purist thinks you shouldn't start threads on your own players