Max King

[PhatBoy]

Making out I have won some bragging rights because he didn’t measure up to other players? That is a seriously weird take on my post. King UNDER-performed my predictions. So I OVER-rated his likely expected performance.

So what you are arguing is that I have made a post to say look at this, look how right I was to wrongly over-predict Max King’s performance ove the last 6 rounds.

I hope that makes sense in your world PB, it doesn’t make any sense to me. I made some predictions. I came back faithfully to check how they had done. I would have done this regardless of any outcome. I compared his results v the players I said I would compare him to, ie other young key forwards. And then I showed what the players achieving elite key forward goals+goal assist numbers had done so we could compare Max’s performance.

You say Max King has arrived at elite key forward level. Allowing 40 odd key forwards in the game at any one time that would put him in the top half dozen or so wouldn’t it? How many AFL key forwards would you select before Max King in a game to be played this week? What definition do you have of elite for a key forward?

King is 10th of the key forwards for goals per match this year. He is no higher than 25th for average goal assists of the key forwards, but that is not including over a dozen rucks/second rucks. He is 8th amongst key forwards for score involvements.

These are all perfectly respectable numbers for a key forward, let alone a 21yo, but elite?

Come on PB, you seem to be having a bad day mate. Still I guess that is an upgrade on PJays, who is having a shocking decade.

Is that all they’re measured on?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Is that all they’re measured on?

You make the case then. But those would have to be 3 pretty big ticket items for a key forward, surely?

 

[PhatBoy]

You make the case then. But those would have to be 3 pretty big ticket items for a key forward, surely?

2nd in the league for contested marks. The league, not key forwards
8th among key forwards for score involvements by my measure and if he had literally ONE more score involvement across nine rounds of footy he’d be equal 5th with a whole bunch of them.

By my measure that puts him at the very highest end of one key measure for a tall forward, puts him in the top 25 per cent of another one, and his goals per game is fine without being brilliant.

And he’s 20.


Whatever your intent or prediction initially all your post to PJays today looks like is ‘hahaha you said this guy was gonna be incredible but wouldn’t put your money where your mouth is, he didn’t do all those things so he can’t be that good look at me look at me.’

I doubt I’d be the only person to read it that way

King is a fantastic young player, causes us headaches every time we play St Kilda, and there are plenty of established players I’d look past to pick him instead

 

[MickG88]

He is a good young player, a likely future star.

Has had more scoring shots than any other forward in the AFL, just poor conversion. Tom Lynch as had 48 Shots at goal and king 49.
Point out who at 20 years old is a better forward than him? Plugger, Ablett, Lloyd? the list isn't very long.

 

[MickG88]

Ah, I must apologise PJays. When I read what you wrote about Max King arriving at elite level, I did not understand what you meant was elite level “for a 21yo with <50 games on the board.”

You might want to mention that next time so others don’t make the schoolboy error I made of thinking elite level means actual elite level.

How is he not an elite Forward? He marks the ball, crumbs the ball and brings the ball to the ground, which other Forward does all that?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

2nd in the league for contested marks. The league, not key forwards
8th among key forwards for score involvements by my measure and if he had literally ONE more score involvement across nine rounds of footy he’d be equal 5th with a whole bunch of them.

By my measure that puts him at the very highest end of one key measure for a tall forward, puts him in the top 25 per cent of another one, and his goals per game is fine without being brilliant.

And he’s 20.


Whatever your intent or prediction initially all your post to PJays today looks like is ‘hahaha you said this guy was gonna be incredible but wouldn’t put your money where your mouth is, he didn’t do all those things so he can’t be that good look at me look at me.’

I doubt I’d be the only person to read it that way

King is a fantastic young player, causes us headaches every time we play St Kilda, and there are plenty of established players I’d look past to pick him instead

OK, he turned 20 almost 2 years ago, 22 months to be precise, but if you need him to be 20 to win some dick measuring contest, he can be 20.

Your definition of elite key forward seems to be met because he is elite in one category - contested marks, where he sits equal second in the AFL in 2022. Wouldn’t a player’s performance to be considered elite need to be derived from his performance across a basket of relevant stats categories?

So for a key forward would you fairly rate them after looking at Goals + goal assists, score involvements, marks inside 50, contested marks, disposals, contested possessions, effective disposals, and maybe 1%ers/tackles? And after considering all of that and perhaps any other relevant factors would you then agree the top 6 or so or as many others that are roughly at the level of the 5th best would be the elite guys?

You are miles off course with your attributions regarding my intent on this thread. I agree King is a great prospect tracking very well. The premise I disagree with is that he has arrived at elite level AFL key forward at this point of his career. I set out to see if PJays had just misread the cues by setting out some objective measures for a fair batch of matches. The results of that admittedly limited sample say he is not up with the elite guys yet, imo. You and PJays differ it seems, but neither of you are making a very convincing argument as to why he should be rated in about the best 6 key forwards in the AFL right now, I must say.

All your gung-ho trash talk about dick measuring must be something you were wanting to say and you incorrectly tried to make it fit the circumstances of this thread. I cannot think of any other reason you would inject that rubbish into the conversation.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How is he not an elite Forward? He marks the ball, crumbs the ball and brings the ball to the ground, which other Forward does all that?

You think he is in the best handful of key forwards in the AFL as of right now?

Has had more scoring shots than any other forward in the AFL, just poor conversion. Tom Lynch as had 48 Shots at goal and king 49.
Point out who at 20 years old is a better forward than him? Plugger, Ablett, Lloyd? the list isn't very long.

It is a fair point you make and a decent accolade for King to have the most shots at goal in the AFL this season. Does he have the highest average shots on goal per match?

Regardless, one of the key roles of a forward in footy is to make sure goals happen. So inescapably conversion plays a part in the value of the player. As things stand Max’s conversion is not up with the elite players this season or anywhere near it. It is perhaps a key reason why he is not elite at this point.

 

[HairyO]

How is he not an elite Forward? He marks the ball, crumbs the ball and brings the ball to the ground, which other Forward does all that?

What is the player count for "elite" out of the tall forwards? Top 5 players? Top 10?

Context probably matters.

King is definitely top 10, maybe top 5.

But we are not even half way through the season. Still a long way to go.

 

[MickG88]

You think he is in the best handful of key forwards in the AFL as of right now?



It is a fair point you make and a decent accolade for King to have the most shots at goal in the AFL this season. Does he have the highest average shots on goal per match?

Regardless, one of the key roles of a forward in footy is to make sure goals happen. So inescapably conversion plays a part in the value of the player. As things stand Max’s conversion is not up with the elite players this season or anywhere near it. It is perhaps a key reason why he is not elite at this point.

Yes, I think he is in the top 5 key forwards in the game at the moment.
"one of the key roles of a forward in footy is to make sure goals happen" I feel that you haven't watch very much of Max King play this year. If we didn't plasy in Cairns the conversing rate would be much better, you take 2 0or 3 of those 7 behinds and make them goals then he is right up there with Lynch, Cameron and Curnow.
Lynch 64.6
Cameron 54.3
Curnow 58.7

 

[PhatBoy]

OK, he turned 20 almost 2 years ago, 22 months to be precise, but if you need him to be 20 to win some dick measuring contest, he can be 20.

Your definition of elite key forward seems to be met because he is elite in one category - contested marks, where he sits equal second in the AFL in 2022. Wouldn’t a player’s performance to be considered elite need to be derived from his performance across a basket of relevant stats categories?

So for a key forward would you fairly rate them after looking at Goals + goal assists, score involvements, marks inside 50, contested marks, disposals, contested possessions, effective disposals, and maybe 1%ers/tackles? And after considering all of that and perhaps any other relevant factors would you then agree the top 6 or so or as many others that are roughly at the level of the 5th best would be the elite guys?

You are miles off course with your attributions regarding my intent on this thread. I agree King is a great prospect tracking very well. The premise I disagree with is that he has arrived at elite level AFL key forward at this point of his career. I set out to see if PJays had just misread the cues by setting out some objective measures for a fair batch of matches. The results of that admittedly limited sample say he is not up with the elite guys yet, imo. You and PJays differ it seems, but neither of you are making a very convincing argument as to why he should be rated in about the best 6 key forwards in the AFL right now, I must say.

All your gung-ho trash talk about dick measuring must be something you were wanting to say and you incorrectly tried to make it fit the circumstances of this thread. I cannot think of any other reason you would inject that rubbish into the conversation.

BecUse mate, that’s how your long winded post directed at PJays reads.

‘Look at me look at me you couldn’t put your money where your mouth is what’s king done he’s shit he’s not as good as you said he was but you weren’t brave enough to back it up look look look he didn’t achieve this he didn’t achieve that’

Even allowing for what you’ve described as him underachieving relative to YOUR OWN predictions for King it comes across as completely unnecessary and in many ways irrelevant.

To me that sort of crowing is a pissing contest mate, nothing more. And you are a more intelligent poster than that.


And wow, sorry for getting his age wrong by one digit. That completely reshapes every factor in the argument.



Basically, this player has shown quite a bit at a young age, rightfully many people have said ‘shit this guy is going to be good’ and right at the moment he is perfectly on track to be every single bit as good as is being touted and the desire to tear that down doesn’t make sense to me

 

[MickG88]

What is the player count for "elite" out of the tall forwards? Top 5 players? Top 10?

Context probably matters.

King is definitely top 10, maybe top 5.

But we are not even half way through the season. Still a long way to go.

I would say top 5 for for individual positions and top 10 for midfield such as top 5 in key forward position.
My top 5 Key forwards would be
Lynch
Cameron
Curnow
Hawkins
King
followed closely by Wright, Naughton (other years he would of being top 5), McKay (again if he didn't get injured), Franklin and Daniher.(no particular order)
McKay and Naughton the only other young key forwards on that list.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yes, I think he is in the top 5 key forwards in the game at the moment.
"one of the key roles of a forward in footy is to make sure goals happen" I feel that you haven't watch very much of Max King play this year. If we didn't plasy in Cairns the conversing rate would be much better, you take 2 0or 3 of those 7 behinds and make them goals then he is right up there with Lynch, Cameron and Curnow.
Lynch 64.6
Cameron 54.3
Curnow 58.7

Quick Mick, take your post down before anyone else sees it mate.

King kicked 2.2 in Cairns, roughly his average conversion.

His 7 point display came in a different match.

 

[HairyO]

I would say top 5 for for individual positions and top 10 for midfield such as top 5 in key forward position.
My top 5 Key forwards would be
Lynch
Cameron
Curnow
Hawkins
King
followed closely by Wright, Naughton (other years he would of being top 5), McKay (again if he didn't get injured), Franklin and Daniher.(no particular order)
McKay and Naughton the only other young key forwards on that list.

Fair enough. Seems reasonable. If he doesnt miss anymore games Mitch Lewis will be on the list. Average 3 goals a game and we are a fairly terrible team. Taking a huge number of marks too.

 

[Osho]

He's great, just out of teens. Think about that.

Even on the weekend when he didn't dominate he was still pushing up for leads and moving around, occupying the cats defenders, getting them out of position, and eventually Ryder grabbed the opps in the gaps.

 

[MickG88]

Quick Mick, take your post down before anyone else sees it mate.

King kicked 2.2 in Cairns, roughly his average conversion.

His 7 point display came in a different match.

wow, I got the game mixed up with the GWS game. I should be so ashamed that I could recall which game he kicked 7 points in but my post holds true. you turn any of those points into goals and it affects goal accuracy.

 

[MickG88]

Fair enough. Seems reasonable. If he doesnt miss anymore games Mitch Lewis will be on the list. Average 3 goals a game and we are a fairly terrible team. Taking a huge number of marks too.

Mitch Lewis is a very good forward and Jacob Jacob Koschitzke is turning out to be one too. give them a couple of years gelling together and they will monster teams.

 

[MickG88]

Quick Mick, take your post down before anyone else sees it mate.

King kicked 2.2 in Cairns, roughly his average conversion.

His 7 point display came in a different match.

also 4 years into Tom lynch's career at round 9 he had only kicked 22 goals 5 behinds, so if you are going to compare apples to apples maybe use the right stats.

 

[HairyO]

Mitch Lewis is a very good forward and Jacob Jacob Koschitzke is turning out to be one too. give them a couple of years gelling together and they will monster teams.

That certainly is the hope. We also have Emerson Jeka who kicks bags in the AFL but to date has struggled at AFL level, so there is a chance we will end up with too many tall forwards.

 

[MickG88]

That certainly is the hope. We also have Emerson Jeka who kicks bags in the AFL but to date has struggled at AFL level, so there is a chance we will end up with too many tall forwards.

Saints will take Jacob Koschitzke if you don't want him.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

wow, I got the game mixed up with the GWS game. I should be so ashamed that I could recall which game he kicked 7 points in but my post holds true. you turn any of those points into goals and it affects goal accuracy.

So you attribute his inaccuracy to the conditions in the Port game, then when I point out he wasn’t inaccurate in that match but in a different match you do one of the best pirouettes since I got taken by a friend with a sense of humour to see Swan Lake where all the swans were males. .

Let me explain a fundamental principle of footy to you Mick. They keep the score based on what actually happens, not what might have happened if what actually happened didn’t happen.

Pub version. Aunty balls uncle.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

also 4 years into Tom lynch's career at round 9 he had only kicked 22 goals 5 behinds, so if you are going to compare apples to apples maybe use the right stats.

Why is 4 years into Tom Lynch’s career relevant to the question of whether Max King is an elite AFL forward right now?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

BecUse mate, that’s how your long winded post directed at PJays reads.

‘Look at me look at me you couldn’t put your money where your mouth is what’s king done he’s shit he’s not as good as you said he was but you weren’t brave enough to back it up look look look he didn’t achieve this he didn’t achieve that’

Even allowing for what you’ve described as him underachieving relative to YOUR OWN predictions for King it comes across as completely unnecessary and in many ways irrelevant.

To me that sort of crowing is a pissing contest mate, nothing more. And you are a more intelligent poster than that.


And wow, sorry for getting his age wrong by one digit. That completely reshapes every factor in the argument.



Basically, this player has shown quite a bit at a young age, rightfully many people have said ‘shit this guy is going to be good’ and right at the moment he is perfectly on track to be every single bit as good as is being touted and the desire to tear that down doesn’t make sense to me

Strangest thread I can recall this. Everyone basically seems to agree with everything I say on the thread, sometimes with minor variations, but at the same time vehemently objects to me saying it.

Sort of reminds me of the classic Australian movie from the 60’s, They’re a Weird Mob.

 

[MickG88]

So you attribute his inaccuracy to the conditions in the Port game, then when I point out he wasn’t inaccurate in that match but in a different match you do one of the best pirouettes since I got taken by a friend with a sense of humour to see Swan Lake where all the swans were males. .

Let me explain a fundamental principle of footy to you Mick. They keep the score based on what actually happens, not what might have happened if what actually happened didn’t happen.

Pub version. Aunty balls uncle.

So, if he had better accuracy he would be elite?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So, if he had better accuracy he would be elite?

He is 10th amongst AFL key forwards for goals per game. If he was about 5th, he would be considered statistically elite in that category. It wouldn’t matter how he achieved that. But whether that alone would take him to being an elite key forward for the season I don’t know. Really I think that needs to be measured against a wider basket of statistics as per my post above.

 

[MickG88]

He is 10th amongst AFL key forwards for goals per game. If he was about 5th, he would be considered statistically elite in that category. It wouldn’t matter how he achieved that. But whether that alone would take him to being an elite key forward for the season I don’t know. Really I think that needs to be measured against a wider basket of statistics as per my post above.

Who do you consider to be the top 5 Key Forwards of the year (so far)?