Racing May Daily Thread - Bankrolls In Freefall

[FallingLiefs]

nothing
was commenting on your no idea about breeding !

Poorly informed idea.

As much as everyone makes out that all horses are bred to get 1 group 1, retire early and then increase their breeding capacity because that's just what Darley/Godolphin do. they are basically the only operation that has a significant voice in breeding and racing simultaneously in Australia.

99% of the big vendor breeders make decisions on cash return at sale which as I said is dictated by whoever is currently buying. As long as the Asian countries and large syndicators are buying it will be a skew towards precociousness over ability, the breeding industry will forever be supplying for demand unless you are racing them yourselves.

As for the unencumbered's of the world it is amazing to think this those poor breeders that got sucked in to going there averaged 75k at the sales about on par with Cox plate winning shamus award.

 

[Jugada]

Any desperates here manage to land a piece of that quinella div at Globe Derby?

 

[iluvparis]

Any desperates here manage to land a piece of that quinella div at Globe Derby?

Imagine if you took the exacta

 

[HeathySure]

yo

Actually they are not competitive over here - that's the point. You've come up with an Emirates winner and a horse that has been belted every time he's seen a black type race in Victoria

your standards of what is a good horse (as per normal racing not top class racing) is way too high, There is more racing than just the group 1s you know

 

[HeathySure]

Poorly informed idea.

As much as everyone makes out that all horses are bred to get 1 group 1, retire early and then increase their breeding capacity because that's just what Darley/Godolphin do. they are basically the only operation that has a significant voice in breeding and racing simultaneously in Australia.

99% of the big vendor breeders make decisions on cash return at sale which as I said is dictated by whoever is currently buying. As long as the Asian countries and large syndicators are buying it will be a skew towards precociousness over ability, the breeding industry will forever be supplying for demand unless you are racing them yourselves.

As for the unencumbered's of the world it is amazing to think this those poor breeders that got sucked in to going there averaged 75k at the sales about on par with Cox plate winning shamus award.

i am not arguing with any of this. except the retiring early thing. This year more than any, there is no intention of racing any decent young horse until it wins a race and then sent off to stud so they make money there. It makes a mockery of racing.
As for the breeders making a fortune this year.. good on them. it wont last, the money will run out. Its only a few that will make th big bucks and * it up for the small breeders eventually. There is not enough money to go around

 

[FallingLiefs]

i am not arguing with any of this. except the retiring early thing. This year more than any, there is no intention of racing any decent young horse until it wins a race and then sent off to stud so they make money there. It makes a mockery of racing.
As for the breeders making a fortune this year.. good on them. it wont last, the money will run out. Its only a few that will make th big bucks and glory be it up for the small breeders eventually. There is not enough money to go around

you just described it as a pyramid scheme where it has little resemblance and would be interesting trying to describe how the flow of money turns it into one. there is too big of a trade circle in racing to control the profit all round. the example you show 90% of the time is normal people in normal horses they got the normal way (through the sales) selling the colt to prospective studs, where is the pyramid there?

 

[checkraiseulite]

As for the unencumbered's of the world it is amazing to think this those poor breeders that got sucked in to going there averaged 75k at the sales about on par with Cox plate winning shamus award.

not sure what this comment means but i'm interested as i just bought a piece of an unencumbered colt.

horse was 100k.

 

[FallingLiefs]

not sure what this comment means but i'm interested as i just bought a piece of an unencumbered colt.

horse was 100k.

Generally unencumbered as a stallion type would be the ones that are scoffed at on this board but has proven to produce nice looking horses that sold better than they were expected to. anyone that took a risk on breeding with a horse that won a historically average race has been rewarded. Doesn't give too much indication for people that bought them though. Other than unencumbered sounds better than he did 6 months ago.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

I have no problems with horses becoming sires after their natural career ends (race til 5) or they have a legitimate career ending injury, I am Invincible, Bletchingly etc would have come to the top eventually it just would have taken a long time. Or they go the way of Sequalo, Brave Warrior, Rustic Amber and others who were gun sires but werent given top class mares, made a fortune at stud but would have been way better if they were properly supported.

as for change of blakc type races. Races like th Rosehill Guineas Golden Rose are just bullshit races, not needed but made by the breeders so they can cash in. Races like the ORr stakes, underwood Caulfield stakes, all aged and meh WFA races gone from group 3 and 2 to group 1 for no reason other than breeders wanting more group 1's,
Restricted races like Magic Millions, Everest, etc should not have black type at all.
i could go on and on

BW died before his career could take off. Although he did leave a nice footprint in QLD racing with his stock performing strongly. Worth noting that he was a Queenslander too. I can't recall too many QLD colts standing in Vic or NSW but happy to be corrected. The others were able to do well in a niche market with the right incentives attached. Most of those races you are complaining about having G1 status have been G1 before you were born! If you look at the recent reitrees breeders don't need Group 1s, just a solid performance in a barrier trial.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Aiden O'Brien could have 7 runners in the derby. Which one's will be pacemaker I don't know but I often end up backing them

 

[HeathySure]

you just described it as a pyramid scheme where it has little resemblance and would be interesting trying to describe how the flow of money turns it into one. there is too big of a trade circle in racing to control the profit all round. the example you show 90% of the time is normal people in normal horses they got the normal way (through the sales) selling the colt to prospective studs, where is the pyramid there?

I have seen it before. IT happened in the late 80s and even Bart Cummings was saved by some miracle. It will happen again . the maths doesnt add up. That is a pyramid scheme. You charge $100k for service fee, horse sells for $500k at the sales. Horse races and wins a maiden and gets $20k back, loses $100k on training fees over the horses career, 3 years later, breeder charges $100k , horse goes to sales, passed in as the owners go shy. i think 5 percent of horses make a profit on the racetrack, its ok to race for fun, but when the big blokes go through a recession or give up aka Nathan Tinkler the bottom will fall out., and it will

 

[HeathySure]

BW died before his career could take off. Although he did leave a nice footprint in QLD racing with his stock performing strongly. Worth noting that he was a Queenslander too. I can't recall too many QLD colts standing in Vic or NSW but happy to be corrected. The others were able to do well in a niche market with the right incentives attached. Most of those races you are complaining about having G1 status have been G1 before you were born! If you look at the recent reitrees breeders don't need Group 1s, just a solid performance in a barrier trial.

oh no they werent. The orr Underwood were group 2s, the golden rose and rosehill guineas didnt exist, The rosehill guineas races ONG THE SAME DAY AS THE AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS!! wtf is this s**t. its the same pool of horses and 2 get group 1s. both the Rosehill Guineas and Australian Guineas ar not legit group 1s, piss them off

 

[IKnowtheDog]

You're coming across a bit cranky Heath

I think where you are confusing me and yourself is with the races. Some races have been upgraded from G2 to G1 (Prior to 1979 the phrase Principal race was used). CF Orr was upgraded in 1993 , Underwood G1 since 1979 (when grading commenced), Rosehill Guineas a G1 since 1980 (commencement of Grading), Randwick Guineas replaced the old Canterbury Guineas which was a G1 since 1980 (commencement of grading). Australian Guineas better known as Çadbury Guineas' has been G1 since 1987. None of the races I have mentioned above has anything to do with #breeders !!! The Golden Rose replace the old Peter Pan stakes which was a G2.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I have seen it before. IT happened in the late 80s and even Bart Cummings was saved by some miracle. It will happen again . the maths doesnt add up. That is a pyramid scheme. You charge $100k for service fee, horse sells for $500k at the sales. Horse races and wins a maiden and gets $20k back, loses $100k on training fees over the horses career, 3 years later, breeder charges $100k , horse goes to sales, passed in as the owners go shy. i think 5 percent of horses make a profit on the racetrack, its ok to race for fun, but when the big blokes go through a recession or give up aka Nathan Tinkler the bottom will fall out., and it will

So just normal supply and demand and variances like the normal economy with selling and buying desired goods yeah?

 

[HeathySure]

So just normal supply and demand and variances like the normal economy with selling and buying desired goods yeah?

no
its not normal at all because the buyers have to realise that they are not buying for profit they are buying for pleasure. That is all well and good but how long can this last when its a very expensive game. The ones who are making the big bucks are the huge breeders, they will always do it because they are the ones who are controlling the industry, but that gravy boat they are on at the moment wont last, It cannot. The money will run out eventually.

 

[HeathySure]

You're coming across a bit cranky Heath

I think where you are confusing me and yourself is with the races. Some races have been upgraded from G2 to G1 (Prior to 1979 the phrase Principal race was used). CF Orr was upgraded in 1993 , Underwood G1 since 1979 (when grading commenced), Rosehill Guineas a G1 since 1980 (commencement of Grading), Randwick Guineas replaced the old Canterbury Guineas which was a G1 since 1980 (commencement of grading). Australian Guineas better known as Çadbury Guineas' has been G1 since 1987. None of the races I have mentioned above has anything to do with #breeders !!! The Golden Rose replace the old Peter Pan stakes which was a G2.

i am confusing the Rosehill Guineas with the Randwick Guineas. There is no need for ORR to be a group 1, The Futurity is a group 1 with the exact same conditions 2 weeks later. Group 1s should be the pinnacle of racing not the norm. The Underwood is 2 weeks before the Caulfield Stakes which is 3 weeks before the Coc Plate. There is no need for the Caulfield races to be group 1s as they are not the pinnacle, There are other races that have been upgraded to Group1s for no reason other than good horses have won the race. Thats a stupid reason for having the race a group 1. A group 1 should be the pinnacle of the racing season not some race you win as you go along

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Nothing wrong with having that view Heath. I personally don't mind the spread of G1 and other black type races as it provides for the chance of a distribution of funds and 'status' . Condense the number and you might end up with Lloyd Coolmore & Godolphin scooping the pool.

 

[iluvparis]

yo


your standards of what is a good horse (as per normal racing not top class racing) is way too high, There is more racing than just the group 1s you know

Sorry - I should have been clear - when I meant top horses I meant genuine Group 1 animals. Not horses that can snare a Saturday welter. What is the game about if not finding which horse is the cream of the crop.

 

[iluvparis]

Aiden O'Brien could have 7 runners in the derby. Which one's will be pacemaker I don't know but I often end up backing them

You'll be able to tell by the price - to me that suggests he doesn't think he can win so is throwing as many darts as possible - especially with the Guineas winner going to Ireland - if he is a genuine winning chance he normally only runs a couple.

 

[iluvparis]

Nothing wrong with having that view Heath. I personally don't mind the spread of G1 and other black type races as it provides for the chance of a distribution of funds and 'status' . Condense the number and you might end up with Lloyd Coolmore & Godolphin scooping the pool.

To be fair - I agree with Heath - way too many G1s of the same type as evidence by the laughable one on the cow paddock up north last Saturday.

However - his argument of going about is classically illogical as this problem has been around for years - isn't a recent invention.

 

[iluvparis]

Legit had to look up Unencumbered - looking at his race record I can see why.

What's his best progeny so far?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Legit had to look up Unencumbered - looking at his race record I can see why.

What's his best progeny so far?

unraced. first crop next season.

 

[iluvparis]

unraced. first crop next season.

Lol so you are saying he looks a good sire based on first season sales price and how they look - utter garbage.

So if you went to him as a first season sire you might have lucked out because they look nice - in reality they could all turn out to be cart horses like their dad and he'll never see this type of average sale price again.

 

[AvantGardener]

Legit had to look up Unencumbered - looking at his race record I can see why.

What's his best progeny so far?

He has been pretty hard to miss. He was advertised on Sky a lot and of course it was Nathan Berrys first and only Gp1 winner. I think I've probably seen the final stages of that Magic Millions more than any other race (bar maybe Lohnro Australian Cup or Makybes 3rd Melb Cup).

 

[FallingLiefs]

Lol so you are saying he looks a good sire based on first season sales price and how they look - utter garbage.

So if you went to him as a first season sire you might have lucked out because they look nice - in reality they could all turn out to be cart horses like their dad and he'll never see this type of average sale price again.

In fairness that's exactly what I said except with positive tones rather than Paris tones.