Racing May Daily Thread - Melham’s Multi Madness

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Terry's just said this is a trillion-to-one to be upheld, which it might have been until he opened his mouth - so you're still in with a shot on the 2nd horse.

I have no idea how Bailey reached the conclusion that the protest was no chance of being upheld. Welsh calling it 50/50 seemed about right to me.
 

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Yeah I sorta figured he wouldn't be here for one, and only 27.5k for two, if he was any good but he does seem to be in a purple patch for hype horses at the moment.

Was just having a look at all the duds last night actually - Criterion, Wandjina, Dissident, Hallowed Crown (lol), Shooting To Win done fu** all, Brazen Beau a few stakes winners but best performer is still Pretty Brazen... list goes on.

Toronado is perfectly bred for Australian stallion and best looking horse in the stud book. He isn’t doing it on the percentages because he had huge support of his superior pedigree at affordable rate. I’ve tried to get involved with him

Shooting to Win. Watch this space. I have faith.

BB doing well by the numbers. Rest are cooked despite Colette. Criterion completely infertile.
 
Any leader bias going to be present tomorrow at Caufield?
The last meeting at Caulfield (April 4) with rail out 9 there was savage leader bias.
Was an extremely heavy track though with significant rain during the day as well.
But I think going to Caulfield with assumption that runners in at least the first half of the field will be advantaged is a safe assumption
 

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Biometric runs tomorrow
You on iluvparis ?

would be keener dry. His only real failure to date was the only time he saw a wet track. But at current price more than enough risk reward. His best just wins. Is racing camels
 
would be keener dry. His only real failure to date was the only time he saw a wet track. But at current price more than enough risk reward. His best just wins. Is racing camels
We're already on a Good 4 and it's fine with a northerly? Bet up lad.

If you can make ground by this stage, he has to start single figures; certainly shorter than horses like Viral/Kaplumpich. Interesting race regardless with all the imports.
 
Spent some time on R4 Caulfield tomorrow where Mick Price currently has the first 3 in the market.

Right You Are is currently fave off it's 'impressive' first up Werribee win and 4:2-1-1 record, but I started looking through that race and it was actually complete garbage. They ran slower overall time than the limited maiden on the day, which isn't the end of the world but then you look back through the form of the subsequent runners: 9 starts for 5 noughts and a 9th! Unlucky 4th Tee Train managed to run 2nd at his next start at Casterton... beaten 5 lengths. A nice horse but on pedigree and even the way he came off the bit last start, I think he might be looking for 2000m at this level. Laying as fave.

Smoke Bomb also comes in off a provincial win, but with much more substance on the clock and subsequent form out of the race. He did find the lead under absolutely no pressure at all though, on a track where that's been dynamite. It was also a big spike from nowhere as his previous starts were only average and given he was $4.20 out to $8 I don't think anyone else was expecting it either. So while he's a good chance off his last win, I think at $4.4 he's probably no value.

The Librate/Charleise race didn't look much on paper and is probably only off-season fillies, but I think they're actually taking a step down in class to what's essentially a glorified BM70. Given the knocks outlined on the first two in the market, I think playing these two at ~ $8 and $10 is a good gamble.
 
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