MCG to host GF through to 2057

skipper kelly

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My argument is that the biggest factor of HGA is the impact a one sided crowd has on the referees.

Richmond v Giants PF, the crowd was 90% Richmond...when they are all yelling ‘ball’ as one it has an influence on umpires.

At the GF the crowd is going off tap for BOTH teams.

Any umpire bias and advantage from that is lost.
I understand using one analysis and running with it to try and prove the truth. This is where I believe that argument is failing. There are many studies about the impacts of travel in sport. Your argument discards these studies based on an analysis of numbers. Using studies based on statistical significance of numbers is not the best way to measure physiological impacts of travel, climate, noise, living conditions, playing conditions etc.

But if it is agreed that the biggest factor is noise on umpires, this doesn't mean that other smaller factors have no impact. Combining those smaller factors may be significant. How to measure all these variables and come up with the truth is impossible.

So for me it comes down to the pub test. If you had to choose whether to play a game in home your home state or interstate which one would you choose. You cannot choose both or say it doesn't matter, you must make a choice.

Home advantage is only one aspect of this decision.

Other factors may include finance, crowd capacity, fairness for non victorian supporters, impacts on growth markets etc.
 
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HPKS

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Only want to count the last 10 years because before that 'the game was a semi amateur sport'.
No other reasons I can think of.
because you would go on recent data if you were trying to analyse anything weather that be petrol prices or airline baggage handling performances or bank profits. You wouldn’t go to your boss with data that’s over ten years old. You definitely wouldn’t be looking at something from 25 years ago.
 

doppleganger

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I understand using one analysis and running with it to try and prove the truth. This is where I believe that argument is failing. There are many studies about the impacts of travel in sport. Your argument discards these studies based on an analysis of numbers. Using studies based on statistical significance of numbers is not the best way to measure physiological impacts of travel, climate, noise, living conditions, playing conditions etc.
??
That is the entire point, try and quantify whether things like climate, noise, surface actually do offer any statistically significant advanatage...the numbers in the study say they don’t.

People like to think that cheering and waving banners helps out a player off their shot...numbers say otherwise.

But if it is agreed that the biggest factor is noise on umpires, this doesn't mean that other smaller factors have no impact. Combining those smaller factors may be significant. How to measure all these variables and come up with the truth is impossible.
The GF removes the biggest component of a ‘home’ advantage.

The point is the advantage is less than a regular H&A game, which betting algorithms establish as roughly 9 points...

So for me it comes down to the pub test. If you had to choose whether to play a game in home your home state or interstate which one would you choose. You cannot choose both or say it doesn't matter, you must make a choice.
As a Collingwood fan, I would want to play at ANZ stadium.

Home advantage is only one aspect of this decision.

Other factors may include finance, crowd capacity, fairness for non victorian supporters, impacts on growth markets etc.
Indeed.

The biggest factor is that the GF has never been played at the home ground of the higher ranked team, it was always about playing finals at the biggest showcase stadium.

Nobody cared that the G was Melbourne’s home ground.

Now the game is trying to push into Northern markets, would be great to potentially one day play a GF in Sydney...but keeping the GF at the G in Melbourne is best option for enabling NSW and QLD fans to access the game...more Sydney fans would get tickets to a Swans GF at the G than if it was at the SCG, same for Giants, Lions and Suns fans.

Getting to Melbourne is pretty simple for NSW and QLD people too, much more convenient than trying to go to WA. You will see a shift in starting time which is all about the growth markets.
 

Carringbush2010

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Yep, just a tiny little backwater that has over 50% of the support for AFL, produces over 50% of the players and brings in over 50% of the money...
Bit lenient on that player participation there bruh, I'd argue you could add 10 - 15% on that figure. Probably on the support base as well
 

Carringbush2010

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Yes. The state leagues could've refused to sellout and join an expanding VFL. The supporters could've turned their backs on the Eagles and Crows and continued supporting their WAFL and SANFL sides.
But that'd never happen, by the thinking of a footy tragic that is not a Vic native - it's a chance to take on and beat the biggest and the best, knock those pricktorians off their f***** high horse.

Was always going to be.
 

Carringbush2010

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I don't think this is as clear cut as you want to make it. It's 'impossible' to measure with 100% accuracy, but let's assume that Vic, SA, WA and Tas about 50% of population are "AFL market".

Just those states, that's 3.1mill in Vic, and 2.4 mill in SA, WA and Tas. Only need to add another 700k from NSW, Qld and NT for it to be equal.

(Personally, I think 50% is too much, when the GF draws 2.7m viewers, but lowering my estimate from 50% down only makes the diff between Vic and SA/WA/Tas even smaller.)
Here's some maths for you, the Vic population outnumbers all footy states combined by approx 1.5 million. Let's be lenient as you are and suggest that half are paying footy fans of varying degrees.

That should give you an idea as to the where the bulk of the market is

upload_2018-4-17_4-59-53.png
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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Here's some maths for you, the Vic population outnumbers all footy states combined by approx 1.5 million. Let's be lenient as you are and suggest that half are paying footy fans of varying degrees.

That should give you an idea as to the where the bulk of the market is

View attachment 484254
Can you do my taxes? Your ability to spin numbers is outstanding.
 

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LoungeLizard

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NSW & Qld have 4 AFL clubs.

WA & SA have 4, Tas nil.

Whats a footy state then?, & whats not?
You could list a lot of things that make a state a "footy state"
But the basics is, a state that the #1 sport is footy, hence why he said where the market is.
 

madmug

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You could list a lot of things that make a state a "footy state"
But the basics is, a state that the #1 sport is footy, hence why he said where the market is.
The obvious thing then is why only 4 in WA/SA but 4 in Northern states & 10 in Vic? How does that compute?

Why have they also left out NT & ACT apart from only wanting to use the name states. Don’t these places exist
Because it mucks up the argument. They dont have AFL clubs either, so they dont rate. I mean giving no weight to QLd & NSW at all is crazy. Clearly they all have Aussie supporters.
 

HPKS

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The obvious thing then is why only 4 in WA/SA but 4 in Northern states & 10 in Vic? How does that compute?



Because it mucks up the argument. They dont have AFL clubs either, so they dont rate. I mean giving no weight to QLd & NSW at all is crazy. Clearly they all have Aussie supporters.

One thing I’ve come to realise in regards to Australian rules football as I got older is a lot of people have no understanding of anything outside a capital cities cbd they live in.
 

skipper kelly

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Do you have a link to the book? I haven't found a link, and book reviews say it's a good read but jump to conclusions that aren't always there. Also, it's methodology has not been made available. Would be a good read though. Designed for the average fan rather than the scientific crowd.

ANZ Stadium OK.:rolleyes:
 
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