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Discussion in 'Adelaide' started by Scorpus, Mar 3, 2016.
The rookie draft has a 100% strike rate of producing elite defenders. Just look at Luke Thompson!
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Better strike rate of producing elite defenders than good forwards
That may be true, but you have to look at our squad to see whether we should dump Lever or McGovern.
We have no one to replace Lever. Sure, we could maybe play Doedee in his role, but our defence would be undersized (and we'd be playing both Cheney and Doedee). Other than that we'd have to play Otten, Kelly or Keath
We could easily replace McGovern. Chuck Menzel in his role. Play Jono Beech as a capable medium forward. Play Milera as a half forward. Whatever.
If Lever goes, we have to bank that whoever replaces him is immediately ready to play. If McGovern goes, we have a number of options.
None of Menzel, Beech or Milera would play any sort of marking role in the forward half. We already have plenty of other forwards who don't mark it but get their goals in other ways.
I like our chances of getting a 3rd tall defender between now and 2018 better than our chances of finding a marking forward, who kicks goals and has good pressure skills thrown in.
Spoken like a man who has not seen a pre-season game since 1996 .
I look forward to him splitting packs for us at AFL level.
I think you're overrating McGovern's ability a bit based on the few spectacular things he does per game.
McGovern is a 5th forward. He was behind Walker, Jenkins, and Lynch in average marks. He was behind Jenkins and Walker in contested marks. He took fewer marks inside 50 than all the other forwards including Eddie Betts (he equalled Tom Lynch). The only forward he had more inside 50s than was Betts.
Sure, he's an excitement machine. But his impact on games in 2016 wasn't that high; in fact many people here wanted him dropped at several points in the season due to his low impact. He does have room to grow and improve considering this is his 1st AFL season, but there is realistically only so much a 5th forward can add to the team. With our current structure, I highly doubt McGovern is going to suddenly kick 50 goals in a season.
I think McGovern is best suited as a pure forward, but we don't have room in our team to play him there, so he's stuck as a 5th forward. I think we could get very similar output from a half forward type like Menzel/Beech/Milera; perhaps a slightly different structure, but a similar impact and output nonetheless
That's not all though. His pressure in forward line is equally impressive
It was his first season in the AFL. Surely you can see that he's going to be an absolute gun. I don't know what else to tell you!
Forwards are at an absolute premium because there are so few of them. Don't want to wave goodbye to another Gunston whose figures I'm sure were equally uninspiring as a 20 year old with us.
He hasn't played a single game and he's 26 years of age
I hope he gets a crack and becomes a good player for us but the odds on this happening are exceptionally long
Yes, I know he is going to be a gun. He has shown great signs. But if we had to give up a player from any position in our team right now, it would be a forward considering we have an abundance of forwards, particularly if we could cash him in for a midfielder.
Even if he becomes a gun forward, he will still be the 5th forward for us (during our 'window'). Again, swapping him out for another player in our team wouldn't be as bad as ripping out Lever from our defence.
I think you've been seduced by the career-best years our forward had all at the same time last season. It's not a given that Jenkins, Lynch, Walker, Betts will run rings around defences year in, year out and play every single match.
We're not talking right now either. We're talking about 2018.
Who was Hawthorn's 5th forward - Franklin, Roughead, Riolo then Bruest or Gunston?
I was talking about mcgovern
Career best years? I wouldn't say that about Walker, and Lynch was consistent with previous years. Betts and Jenkins, sure.
I think you're overestimating the actual impact McGovern will have on our premiership chances during the next few years.
That said, I'd only be happy trading out McGovern if it was guaranteed we'd be replacing him with a high-class midfielder. Lose McGovern, gain a good midfielder and that's an overall improvement as far as the next few years are concerned.
None of Walker, Jenkins or Lynch apply much pressure either
I wonder how many of our goals were from Mitch creating a contest?
Thanks Froggy. Amended.
Were players ever publicly confident that PD would stay?
At least not the time that he left IIRC.
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I think he'll go. The Perth teams will basically have a bidding war over him.
What's he worth on the trade market, is the big question? With Reid in charge, and him being out of contract, we'd be lucky to get a 2nd rounder for him.
Don't confuse free agency with trading. If there was a bidding war for his services, we hold the position of power.
It's not clear at all Lever will be a no.1 key defender. That's the point
I'm willing to predict Lever will win more All Australian selections than our McGovern.
There might be a bidding war over his contract size, but we'd still probably cave within minutes at the trade table and accept pick 34. We'd even throw in a third-round pick upgrade as a show of good faith
And talk about how we can't judge the trade on its own, we need to take account of the other deals it opens up for us.
And then not make any other deals and talk about organic growth