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News Media Phantom Drafts & Rankings 2019

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ferrisb said:
I was bored so I created a consensus phantom draft.

I combined multiple phantom drafts (9 so far) and then ranked players on their average selection.

Here are the top 60 results:

View attachment 771603

Nerdy stuff
  • I've included phantoms from Knightmare, Pie 4 Life, eDPS, Chris25, Davo-27, TerryWallet, LemmingMaster, Fooxfooty (Bishop?) and Cal Twomey
    • I wanted to use the BigFooty Phantom Trial, but decided it was too old (will use the next one). I have only used phantoms from post-champs
    • I will update as more phantoms are released and/or updated. If you want me to include your phantom, add it to this thread or PM me
  • Most drafts are Power Rankings but some are Phantoms
  • Some drafts run to top 30, some 40, and at max 50
  • Where a player has missed out on a draft, I have added an arbitrary 25% weighting. Eg not selected in a top 50? Player could be that person's 51st or 101st. I have no way of knowing, so my spreadsheet puts them down at 62.5 (50 * 1.25). The penalty for missing a top 50 is deliberately worse than missing a top 30.
  • I would have liked to use median, but that got tricky when players missed out on drafts so used average
  • I will share the spreadsheet in time, but 1) I am still tweaking it 2) Can't use google docs at work
  • In time if I get enough phantoms and CBF, I might do a BF consensus vs media consensus. So we can see who BF rates/hates.
Enjoy (or not)
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Do you use the average or median ?
 
ferrisb said:
You must consult the Nerdy Stuff notes....








...spoiler: I used average.... The issue with median was that many players missed multiple lists. Eg a player might have been given 4 x 50 values for missing top 40s. At that point, it didn't matter if their other ratings were 1 or 63.... They were likely to end up with a median of 50. Because there aren't unusually large or small anomalies, I figured average would help to differentiate players without major distortions...



There is a reason why 1) I called it Nerdy stuff 2) I didn't go into full detail in the original post
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sorry I missed the fine print.

Great work
 
Enjoyed. Appreciate your effort too. The pick range for individual players early is telling as well; Williams 3-29, Stephens 3-23 as examples. Suggests an evenness, or a draft where needs will be a dominant factor perhaps.
 
theGav56 said:
Enjoyed. Appreciate your effort too. The pick range for individual players early is telling as well; Williams 3-29, Stephens 3-23 as examples. Suggests an evenness, or a draft where needs will be a dominant factor perhaps.
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Well spotted. Although those two are more outlier-driven.

Stephens - apart from one #3 and one #23, everyone else has him at 8-13 (and 6/9 have him 8-11)
Williams - apart from one #2 (from a poster who doesn't mind sticking his neck out), no one else has him < pick 15. 5/9 have him in the 20-30 range.

But yes, more generally this seems to be a pretty even year. As you said, would not be surprised to see more needs-based picks. And potentially a bunch of pick swaps given team preferences and potential for 'sliders'.
 

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ferrisb said:
But yes, more generally this seems to be a pretty even year. As you said, would not be surprised to see more needs-based picks. And potentially a bunch of pick swaps given team preferences and potential for 'sliders'.
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I'm not even sure what would constitute a "slider" in this draft given the breakdown you have revealed where there is a 10-15+ pick range for a bunch of players.

I think a normal slider definition is someone who us drafted beyond what they are regarded as being valued at. At the top of the draft I would be expecting more a 5-10 pick range (don't have previous draft stats to support this). You only have 2 players who sit convincingly in the top 5, and that is partly because they are conjoined twins destined for sunny climes. The other 3 top 5 slots can be claimed by another 9 players from your chart and some of those players low range extends well into the 20's.
 
I don't want to clog up this thread, but my previous consensus ranking proved more popular than I expected.

In case anyone is interested in the updated version, I have updated 7 of the lists and added The Roar, Champion Data and the BF Phantom Draft.

Click here if you need an explanation.

New consensus top 60

1574136946264.png

I guess I could compare this to my one from three weeks ago to see how players have moved up/down the order? Sorta CBF, but can do if requested.
 
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Two Planks said:
Anyone got a link to the Herald Sun Phantom that was just released.
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Gold Coast 1. Matt Rowell (Oakleigh Chargers, 180cm midfielder)
Gold Coast 2. Noah Anderson (Oakleigh Chargers, 191cm midfield-forward)
Melbourne 3. Luke Jackson (East Fremantle, 199cm ruckman)
GWS 4. Lachie Ash (Murray Bushrangers, 186cm halfback)
GWS 5. Tom Green* (GWS academy, 191cm midfielder)
Sydney 6. Sam Flanders (Gippsland Power, 182cm midfielder)
Adelaide 7. Fischer McAsey (Sandringham Dragons, 197cm defender)
Fremantle 8. Hayden Young (Dandenong Stingrays, 188cm halfback)
Melbourne 9. Demons will trade this pick to another club
Carlton 10. Caleb Serong (Gippsland Power, 179cm midfield-forward)
Fremantle 11. Deven Robertson (Perth, 184cm midfielder)
Hawthorn 12. Brodie Kemp (Bendigo Pioneers, 193cm defender)
Port Adelaide 13. Dylan Stephens (Norwood, 183cm midfielder)
Western Bulldogs 14. Miles Bergman (Sandringham Dragons, 189cm utility)
*GWS matches Sydney’s bid for Green, pushing the order back one
 

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Green sliding to 10 the most shocking part of that from Twomey.

I can see Sydney doing a bit of quid pro quo with the cross town rivals. Adelaide not bidding as part of pick 6 deal. I can't see why Freo wouldn't want another big body to help free Fyfe up. Carlton don't really need a 2nd Cripps but why not keep GWS honest?

Same thing happened with Blakey last year and it was ridiculous.

Pretty much I think every club should keep GWS honest as much as possible (ie pick 5 on) so that next year they don't have any pics and are forced to accept unders for whoever it is out of Hately, O'Halloran or Caldwell who surely don't want to be stuck in the NEAFL forever.
 

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master bate said:
Green sliding to 10 the most shocking part of that from Twomey.

I can see Sydney doing a bit of quid pro quo with the cross town rivals. Adelaide not bidding as part of pick 6 deal. I can't see why Freo wouldn't want another big body to help free Fyfe up. Carlton don't really need a 2nd Cripps but why not keep GWS honest?

Same thing happened with Blakey last year and it was ridiculous.

Pretty much I think every club should keep GWS honest as much as possible (ie pick 5 on) so that next year they don't have any pics and are forced to accept unders for whoever it is out of Hately, O'Halloran or Caldwell who surely don't want to be stuck in the NEAFL forever.
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The green late bid is really weird. Even in his mock draft with Sheehan he bid on Green as quick as he could. I bet he will bring out an updated one on Wednesday morning with Green getting bid on earlier
 
Drewie11 said:
The green late bid is really weird. Even in his mock draft with Sheehan he bid on Green as quick as he could. I bet he will bring out an updated one on Wednesday morning with Green getting bid on earlier
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The other bids are late too. By my reading the descriptions suggest that's just the latest they could come.
 
GUMBLETRON said:
The other bids are late too. By my reading the descriptions suggest that's just the latest they could come.
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I thought the same thing. Hope he is right with Green (doubt it though) He did offer an explanation on one of the match bids saying they always go later on academies and father sons because clubs don't put much time into them.
 
GUMBLETRON said:
The other bids are late too. By my reading the descriptions suggest that's just the latest they could come.
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I think he does an updated version the day of where he usually gets close on the top 10. After the top 10 he goes pretty average. With so many evenly ranked players this year it looks to be a lottery after pick 13
 
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