Meet Up Meet Matthew Richardson at the club

GremioPower

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But how many times do you get triple heavyweight champions in their 3rd year do it?

How many times do you get a team that has made the finals 9 out of 10 years and has a premiership in the middle of that run and play their away QF in a state that they have a positive W/L record in that 10 years?

How many times do you get a side that plays 15 games at the MCG each year and plays their away QF at the MCG rather than elsewhere at their opponents true home gound?

You finish 3rd and win a flag when there are exceptional circumstances. And looking at this with a Port bias, I don't see any exceptional circumstances for us on the horizon.
I would need to check it, but its occurrence in the past two decades seems to suggest they are not exceptional. If WE aren't fit for them, that is different.
 

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agmsy

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If we make a grand final we are a 50:50 chance (theoretically).
No.

That there are only two possible outcomes does not mean those outcomes must be equally likely.

Suppose you and I play a game with a fair six-sided die. Every time you roll a six, I give you a dollar. Every time you roll not a six, you give me a dollar. There's only two possible outcomes for each roll (six or not six), so it must be a fair game, right?
 

pastmyprimus

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I've spoken with Matthew Richardson a few times but not at this event. He's always struck me as a good operator, and seems to get the balance between 'towing the company line' and disclosing his real thoughts pretty much right. The right man to front such an event, and by the accounts of those who attended he did a good job. He's got one helluva tough job at the club.

There's a number of people in the club who need to go (especially Ken) but Matthew isn't one of them.
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Top 2 if you aren't from Victoria, top 4 if you are and manage to get a fellow Victorian side in a preliminary final (better than 50% odds there).
Winning from 4th hasn't happened and only 3 Vic sides have won from 3rd.

4th teams to make a GF since 2000, but didn't win the flag - 2 out of 20.
2002 Collingwood won QF v PA at Footy Park by 12 pts won PF v Adelaide lost GF to Brisbane

2006 Sydney won QF v WCE at Subi by 1 pt (4th game in a row under a goal) won PF v Freo, lost GF to WCE by 1 pt.

There have been a few 4th placed Vic teams play another Vic team in the PF but they haven't progressed. No 4th Vic vs another Vic PF since 2010 when Bulldogs lost to 3rd placed Saints (who beat 2nd placed Gee in QF)

2000 v 3rd, 2004 4th Gee played an away PF against Brisbane at the MCG, 2008 v 2nd, 2009 v 2nd, 2010 v 3rd,

3rd team goes on to win a flag and where they played PF
2003 Brisbane (had to travel to SCG) and 2015 Hawthorn (had to travel to Freo)
2005 Sydney (had to travel to MCG) 2012 Sydney (won at home)
2017 Richmond (played at MCG v GWS) 2019 Richmond (played at MCG v Gee)

3rd is a Vic team and plays another Vic team in PF has occured 7 times in 20 seasons and 40 PF's.
Beats 4th in 2000 and 2010 as per above (ie 3rd beat 2nd in the QF)

Beats 2nd - hasn't happened in a PF

Beats 1st 2018 (Coll beats Rich), 2019 (Rich beat Gee as per above)

Lost to 2nd - hasn't happened in a PF

Lost to 1st 2008 (WB lost to Gee), 2009 (WB lost to Saints) 2011 (Haw lost to Coll)

So if you are a Vic team and finish 3rd you are 4-3 vs another Vic team in a PF. But only 1 flag from that, and it was Richmond this year.
 

LilyC

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Would prefer (for now) that we let a guy who seems to have strong competency within his current role execute his long term strategy, and bring in a clear and effective CEO to complement him.
No disrespect, strong competency?
Lost a joint major sponsor, backs Hinkley to the hilt, point blank lies to members, repeatedly makes statements with zero basis, competent? Umm ok.
 

GremioPower

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No disrespect, strong competency?
Lost a joint major sponsor, backs Hinkley to the hilt, point blank lies to members, repeatedly makes statements with zero basis, competent? Umm ok.
He needs to hold the party line. What can he do? It is either that or leave.
 

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LilyC

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Er, isn't FVK talking about Richo, not KT?
Agree. I think I interpreted FVK'S post a little differently. In saying that, KT's in a position to make decisions. Not sure how much influence or power Richo exerts in his current position. I do not trust KT at all when it comes to Hinkley or other decisions for that matter.
 

TheFVK

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Agree. I think I interpreted FVK'S post a little differently. In saying that, KT's in a position to make decisions. Not sure how much influence or power Richo exerts in his current position. I do not trust KT at all when it comes to Hinkley or other decisions for that matter.
Yeah your initial interpretation would only make sense if you thought i was suggesting we bring in another CEO to complement KT. So co-CEOs :fire::fire:
 

Interstater

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...

You only win from 3rd if you are a battle hardened team, like Brisbane in 2003 when they became a triple heavy weight champion from 3rd, or Hawthorn in 2015 when they did the triple from 3rd, or

Sydney who had played finals in 9 years of the previous 10 years (including the 2005 flag) in 2012 and were battle hardened, or

Richmond in 2017 and play their away QF at the MCG where they play their home games and up to another 6 away games, or 2019 when they are battle hardened the best side of the last 3 seasons and luck out and play a bunch of kids in away QF, but mainly finished 3rd because of injury riddled first half of the year, or

Sydney in 2005 at the start of a 10 game run against the Eagles where 8 games were less than 6 pt margins and one was a 12 pt margin. there was nothing between them and the Eagles in both finals and the same in 2006.

...

I suspect KT and co don't get it, that finishing 3rd or 4th doesn't mean we can win a flag after not winning a final since 2014. They have bought the same kool aid you have bought re the importance of being a Top 4 side. Its a stepping stone, that's all.

But I reckon they have changed because they realised the list they have been building can't get past just being highly competitive. They have changed direction, but have still got the wrong bloke driving the car down the new road.

...

The AFL FIXture makes it an unfair game - re winning the flag.

That's why pumping it up that we are a Top 4 team is something super special is rubbish, that you can win a flag from there this year.

4th is better than 5th or 6th or 7th, and 3rd is better than 4th, and yes we have to make the finals first, but if we are talking winning flags, then finishing Top 4 for a non Vic side is useless.

Its finishing Top 2 that has real meaning.
Apologies for the post snips REH, just wanted to look at this in one post.

(Edit#1: Added opponent)

1572732984814.png


Edit (#2)
Thoughts:
- How is 3rd materially different to 4th?
- When was that "meeting" between the Victorian clubs? (2006/7 ?)
- Non-Victorian clubs need to play Collingwood or each other to greatly improve their premiership chance
- Genuinely surprised that apart from the 2008-2011 block there have been very few Vic vs Vic grand finals.
 
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RussellEbertHandball

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Edit (#2)
Thoughts:
- How is 3rd materially different to 4th?
The QF is 1v4 and 2v3 so prima facie its easier for 3rd to win a QF than 4th which then gives you a home PF.

However since 2000, 4th has beaten 1st, 6 times ( the first 4 times involved 4th jumping on a plane), and 3rd has beaten 2nd, 5 times ( only 2 times by 3rd side jumping on a plane).

But on 4 of those 6 occasions that 4th side won the QF, they have lost a home PF, and 3 times its been to the eventual premiers. Sydney losing to Brisbane in 2003, St Kilda losing to Sydney in 2005 and GWS losing to Western Bulldogs in 2016. Collingwood losing to GWS this year was the 4th occasion. The 2 times they managed to win was 2002 Collingwood and 2006 Sydney. It's been a long drought since 2006.

The 5 times the 3rd side has won the QF, they have also won the PF. 2000 Melb, 2010 StK, 2012 Syd, 2013 Freo and 2017 Rich.

Have a look at who has won from 3rd - the 6 different times;
Twice its been a triple heavyweight champion in their 3rd year, came from 3rd to win. Brisbane 2003 and Hawthorn 2015. They both were good enough to recover from losing the QF on the road and then win the PF also on the road. If they had finished 4th they would have probably won from 4th but being battle hardened and sides stacked with talent, they were good enough to win enough games to finish 3rd.

Sydney 2005, when it was the start of 9 out of 10 games against the West Coast that there was nothing in the games. 8 games were won by less than 6 pts and one game was a 12 point margin. It's why Sydney were good enough in 2006 to come from 4th to a GF - beat WCE in the QF at Subi by 1pt, lost the GF to them by 1pt. There was nothing between Sydney and WCE in 2005 and 2006 so QF and GF results could have gone either way both years. 2012 they had a bit of luck. Played a relatively inexperienced crows at Footy Park, where they had a good record, and won the QF, then Freo at home in the PF and had a big second half to win the GF. But they had made finals 9 of the 10 seasons between 2003-12 and were battle hardened.

Richmond 3rd in 2017 played their away final against 2nd placed Geelong at the MCG their crowd was the dominate part of the 95k crowd, they win and play the rest of the finals at home. 2019 they only really finished 3rd because of that severe injury run in the first half of the year, they were 7-6 as a result, then won 9 in a row. They have been the best side over 3 years, they had 1 bad game over 25 games in 2018. They were battle hardened this year.

So only battle hardened teams win from 3rd or have exceptional circumstances like Sydney 2005 (although they had played finals 9 of 10 season between 1996-05) and even Richmond 2017 although they had the pain of 3 consecutive losing EF's between 2013-15.

Go back and compare the 20 teams that have finished 4th between 2000-2019. I haven't done that exercise. How battle hardened were they compared to the 6 teams who won from 3rd above?? Experience counts, especially in the pressure cooker of finals and a GF.

Also there are only 2 or 3 games win difference between 4th and 8th most years, and sometimes between 4th and 10 - last time was 2018 - 4th 15 wins, 5th 15, 6th 14, 8th 13, 10th 12.

Over those 20 years an average of 40% of games have been 23 pts or less margin games, 47% this year, 42% last year and 45% in 2017. That difference is basically as little as 1 bad error per quarter over 4 quarters by the losing team. The 11 pts or less margin over those 20 years has averaged 20% and 24% this year, 23% last year and 22% in 2017.

See https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/overall_margins.html#myear

It is why most years, when the FIXture is so unbalanced, and teams that jump on a plane 4 or 5 times vs 10 make finals, there tends to be bugger all real difference between 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, even 9th and 10th as 2 or 3 win difference is highly affected by FIXturing, travel and a few mistakes at critical points in a game. Sometimes there is buggerall between 3rd and 4th. But 1st and 2nd tend to have proved they are distinctively better than 3rd and 4th.

Sometimes its just a case of #marginalgains to get 4th. Then its an exponential leap to get to a flag.


- When was that "meeting" between the Victorian clubs? (2006/7 ?)
I don't know when they met, but June 2006 was the announcement by the AFL, they had done deals with local governments and Vic state government to upgrade 8 Vic clubs facilities, with the AFL chipping in funds, as well as the clubs, so they could match the non Vic clubs facilities.

Western Bulldogs had already received their $10m facilities grant from the Howard government as part of 2004 election promises and Geelong had started the 1st stage of Kardinia Park redevelopment and had plans for further stages, is why these 2 clubs weren't part of the packages organised by the AFL for that big June 2006 announcement.

- Non-Victorian clubs need to play Collingwood or each other to greatly improve their premiership chance
Bit harsh on Collingwood they have made 9 PF's for a 5-4 win loss record but have lost 4 GF's 3 to non Vic sides. Geelong have also made 9 PF's but are 4-5 record with only 1 GF loss. Both these sides have made the most PF's since 2000. The next best is 7 by Sydney and the Hawks. Sydney are 5-2 in PF's and have lost 3 GF's.

- Genuinely surprised that apart from the 2008-2011 block there have been very few Vic vs Vic grand finals.
Given travel situation and that there are now 8 non vic teams - ok one has been hopeless - and playing a home PF against a travelling team is bloody tough to win for the travelling team, a Vic vs Non Vic team will probably be the norm, compared to Vic v Vic or non Vic v non Vic GF over any 20 year period.
 
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RussellEbertHandball

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Added more data - premiers wins, 3rds wins, 4ths wins.
No great conclusions drawn.

View attachment 773875


Will do some more research and graphing and hopefully add something useful to what you have provided.
Thanks REH, you have got the cogs spinning.
Here is a bit more data.

Of the 40 Prelim Finals since 2000
* 14 have involved 2 Vic teams playing each other.

* 26 have involved 1 team having to jump on a plane and travel for a PF.

* 19 home PF teams have won the PF against a travelling team
(1) 13 times the Non Vic team has won, 9 times against a Vic team, 4 times against a non Vic team
(2) 6 times a Vic team has won against a non Vic team

* 7 times the home PF team has lost to the travelling team
(1) 3 times the non Vic team has beaten a Vic team
(2) 2 times a Vic team has beaten a non Vic team
(3) 2 times 2 non Vic teams have played

These are the 7 times a travelling team has won a PF

* 2003 Brisbane 3rd beat Sydney 4th at Stadium Oz, after Brisbane lost QF to Coll 2nd at MCG, Syd beat Port 1st

* 2005 Sydney 3rd beat StK 4th at MCG, after Sydney lost QF to WCE 2nd at Subi and Stk beat Adelaide 1st

* 2006 WCE 1st beat Adelaide 2nd at Footy Park after WCE lost QF Syd 4th at Subi and Adel beat Freo 3rd

* 2004 Brisbane 2nd beat Geelong 4th after MCG one PF must be played there rule, Bris played home PF at MCG

======== Then AFL soups up the Vic clubs. The first 3 above won the flag.

* 2015 Haw 3rd beat Freo 1st at Subi, Haw lost QF to WCE 2nd at Subi, Freo 1st beat Syd 4th

* 2016 WB 7th beat GWS 4th at Syd Showgrounds, GWS won QF Syd 1st at Stadium Oz. First time bye before finals

* 2019 GWS 6th beat Coll 4th at MCG, Coll 4th won QF Gee 1st at MCG.

Hawks and Bulldogs then won flags.

Notice the change in the away team PF wins? Before the AFL assisting the Vic clubs, the higher ranked team at the end of the minor round won the PF, since then its been the lower ranked team that has won the PF. And 4th lost 5 of the 7 PF's.
 
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FishingRick04

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Gotta say FishingRick04 , you are impressive.
Organise for some BF members to meet with Richo to air their ideas and concerns
and whammo within a few days we now have a new development coach with some real cred and also a person of note and ability on the ground in China, it’s happening 😉
what can i say :)
 

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