Melb Cup form talk.The follow up

sethlad

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Thread starter #1
Hey all,just home from the traditional Cup Day bbq & what a result.
Genuinely excited about what this means for the Great Race.
I know all the locals will be bitching about the o/s invaders but that was a superb race with two warriors straining every mucle right to the line.
That finish will be showed 1000 times.

A couple of quick observations:
1.What a ride by Iwata,patient but brave enough to look Yeats in the eye just after straightening.How it ran $20 after a C Cup placing,we'll never know.

2.Ollie,would have got off & carried it if he could.Just peaked 50m out.

3.Maybe Better,absolutely fantastic effort.Great trainer B M Smith.

4.Bossy's ride on Zipping from 22,1 out 1 back after 400m.Under pressure after MV rides but that was great.Thats as good as it goes,see Danehill theory.

5.Craig Williams ride on Mandela,gave it every hope.

6.Credit to a couple of roughies,Land N Stars & Mahtoum,both ran out of their skin.

Credit to those who found the winner in our form talk,not often you get so many genuinely keen on a $20 chance.Hopefully a few punters took the tip.

seth
 

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Dingster

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#2
Excellent summary seth. What did you make of Fallon's ride on Yeats? I watched it on a tv at work with a group of noisy people which made it tough to follow and I haven't watched the replay yet. It looked to me on first appearance that he went too early, but take nothing away from Iwata. I suggested yesterday that he was up to it. Pity I liked Yeats more than the horse from the country where I lived for over 12 years.:eek:

Credit to Maybe Better and Zipping who did better than I expected. It was a shame that Efficient didn't run, but the finish was worthy of the great race. A rare satisfaction from a race where I backed a loser.
 

AAMI

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#3
Agree that Fallon's ride was a shocker. He rode it with no patience and with no respect for the rest of the field. Yeats should have finished closer. Not saying that it should have won but it should have finished much closer than it did.

Absolutely brilliant ride by the Japanese rider. When I saw him land near the lead, close to the fence, I thought "watch out". Gutsy horse and well riden.
 
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#4
Fallon not only missed the jump didn't settle in well enough. Shouldn't of went to the lead as it can kick with a bit of go left in the motor. But he pushed it too hard, his ride on Polar Bear in the next was quite good although again, missed the jump.

Maybe Better was always a chance and will be getting on it next year as soon as odds come out aswell as getting on Leica Falcon.
 

sethlad

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Thread starter #5
Mmmm,the talk was always that Yeats would need a solid pace so I guess Fallon felt if he didnt make it,no one would.
All the same,he gave in without a kick so all was obviously not well.

Yep, you were one of the few sticking up for Iwata, over the last few days there was so much wrong info given about him.On TVN Sunday they said he only rode on the b circuit & had only ridden 130 winners.

This was rubbish & it took the whole show before someone actually corrected it.How quick we are to judge all the Japanese jockeys on the Eye Popper ride last year.

seth
 

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#6
i am with you seth... never understood everyone's thoughts about delta. i just oculdn't see how it was rated below pop rock... well it was close, but delta blues had everything going for it bar the jockey, and the jockey wasn't that big a query... as for tawqeet... any explanation there?
 

eastaugh36

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#7
I was as confident as I've ever been with my two tips, Pop Rock and Maybe Better. A shame there was one better on the day!
 

sethlad

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Thread starter #8
The way it limped across the line,hard to believe 2 vets passed it fit to run
Hardly the ideal preparation for a 2 mile race.

seth
 
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#9
Iwata's ride was quite amazing given that he only walked the track this morning while Damien had the benefit of ridding Pop Rock in the CC and Flemington essentially being his homeground. Clearly the horse Delta Blues is a very good stayer as it looked all along on paper. The Ollie factor belies Pop Rock push to favouritism. Delta Blues was over given his good CC run and probably would have started in the low 10s or under if it had an Aussie rider onboard.
Credit needs to be given to Maybe Better for almost pulling it off having raced over the weekend. My wife is jumping up and down all excited having switched from Efficient to Maybe Better. She looked like the light weight chance with Efficient out. I am counting my luck stars to have put it with Tawqeet, Pop and Delta for my box trifecta.
Tawqeet did not look it's normal self .. the foot injury obviously had some effect.
Yeats ran alright in middle section and I wonder whether it pulled to the lead too early. It ran out of tank fairly quickly.
While it would have been the perfect MC betting day if Pop Rock had won; Delta Blue was quite special to have found that extra 1% when challenged at the end.
 

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#11
After watching the SAAB on the weekend as well as the Cup today i must say I'm impressed by Maybe better, especially since ive made quite a few bucks this week thanks to it however i dont think he posesses (sp?) another gear to really accelerate down the straight though his ability to grind it out and fight tooth and nail is awesome

Like many of said though Yeats appeared to have gone way to early and i was surprised he still managed 7th i think that alone indicates that it was the jockey who lost the race not the horse, however i guess its hard to say how he would of run in hindsight if an Australiasian jockey was aboard

Looking forward to Oaks Day on thursday, first time this spring ill get a chance to go to the races. Bring it on!
 

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#12
is it just me or was the trifecta divi poor

with the poor locals and a few crap uk goers the japanese had a real big show

i think eye poppers run last yr had me too worried about the rider and 2nd up form etc

maybe better will be the on a jeune of last year, had its chance but wont threaten again
 
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#13
I think Fallon had the right idea with going forward with the weight, but he may have been better served just sitting up outside the leader instead of putting the pressure on. Perfect ride by the japanese jockey, rode it hands and heels most of the way down the straight.
 

Angus1

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#14
It would appear that Fallon wasn't happy with the pace of the race and wanted it to be lifted during the later part of the middle stage. I was still fairly confident with Yeats up until it took over the lead with about 1000 to go. I really couldn't see the point of this and at the 800 Fallon seemed to be winding him up. I understand that Yeats may not have a fast finishing burst but by quickening so far out it really put the horse under a lot of pressure.
Missing the start proved a big factor IMO. Yeats had to work a bit too hard throughout and just ran out of steam around 400 out. Not a great ride in my opinion however he was carrying a big weight compared to most others.

Tawqeet was pretty disappointing and all I can think is that his foot must be worse then first thought. He was back too far but never made up any ground in the straight when he had ever chance to at least pass a few.

Maybe Better was a top light weight chance. Every year there always seems to be lightweight get up close and this bloke did appear to be the pick of them on paper as was noted by Seth on Monday night.

10th place gets $110,000 so there will be plenty of happy owners out late tonight celebrating.
 
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#15
[10th place gets $110,000 so there will be plenty of happy owners out late tonight celebrating.[/quote]


I think it would have cost them nearly that much in nomination fees.
 

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#16
i am with you seth... never understood everyone's thoughts about delta. i just oculdn't see how it was rated below pop rock... well it was close, but delta blues had everything going for it bar the jockey, and the jockey wasn't that big a query...
Oliver factor.

Everyone loves Olly. Can't see why really, it's not like he's way better than any other jockey.

Always love the Cup when there's a good story to come out of it, the two Japan horses blitzing the field was it, amazing effort really, great to see. Definately infinitely more exciting race and buildup than if it was just Aussie horses.
 

sethlad

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Thread starter #17
I cant really claim Maybe Better,as I said I like him as a horse but I had real 3200m doubts.Class got him a long way though.

Delta Blues was weighted to his best form,including a 3rd in the Japan Cup.
Thought that may have been the difference but he was so brave today.
Just shows you,Pop Rock flogged him in trackwork every gallop.
He obviously knows when it counts

seth
 

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#18
Oliver factor.

Everyone loves Olly. Can't see why really, it's not like he's way better than any other jockey.

Always love the Cup when there's a good story to come out of it, the two Japan horses blitzing the field was it, amazing effort really, great to see. Definately infinitely more exciting race and buildup than if it was just Aussie horses.
fair enough, apparently the owner has 1300 horses in japan, and also the japanese couldn't understand why pop rock was shorter than delta blues
 

Bobby Beecroft

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#19
is it just me or was the trifecta divi poor
Yep I got it & was disappointed.

Delta was massive overs as some pointed out on Monday Night.
Left Yeates out of everything, can't wait till next year when they bring the 'next best ever'. You had to worry about a jock that was disappointed with the barrier 4, had an feeling it may end up 3 wide.

In the end left I left Tawqeet out, & backed Maybe Better each way. With Tawqeet I heard R Freedman mention that Bart on Tuesday morning thought the horse just didn't look right, that was good enough for me. I really think the horse must be 100% to win the Cup.

Great for international exposure of the Cup. Glad there was no protest if Pop Rock wins Ive blown pretty much everything.
 
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#20
is it just me or was the trifecta divi poor

with the poor locals and a few crap uk goers the japanese had a real big show

i think eye poppers run last yr had me too worried about the rider and 2nd up form etc

maybe better will be the on a jeune of last year, had its chance but wont threaten again
Trifecta div was about right. Delta was $17.50 but Pop Rock was almost favourite and Maybe better was about 5th line of betting. I think we've just come to expect that something will run a place at $151.

Disagree entirely about Maybe Better- was a grand run and it wasn't exactly trained to the minute for the race. Think it could be a really consistent performer in the future and give the cup a good shake next year if it runs in the caulfield cup too.

And as for Delta- you little beauty!!!!!!! Brilliant ride by Iwata- you could tell he was going to be right in it when you saw how easily he was travelling into the straight. Was left flat footed for a little while when Yeats started to accelerate, but once Delta got going it looked a very good thing. Pop Rock very gallant- probably cost itself the race with the shifting in, but then again I'm not sure the winner would have let him past anyway.

Just like in the CC, DB was massive overs, but that didn't bother me at all. It just goes to show how valuable a form reference it is to finish close up in the CC.
Didn't think there were too many hard luck stories this year- crap rides on both Yeats and Glistening (although it's hard from gate 24), but neither were going to win anyway.

Great race. Once again won by a tough stayer with a real touch of class. Good for racing IMHO.
 
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#21
Lady luck was smiling on me yesturday got a box trifecta in a mystery pic!!! This may not seem like much but a uni student it's alot. Would never have tipped 1,2 Japan otherwise. So guess who's getting hammered after exams this year.
 

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#22
Trifecta div was about right. Delta was $17.50 but Pop Rock was almost favourite and Maybe better was about 5th line of betting. I think we've just come to expect that something will run a place at $151.
Once they crossed the line I knew I had the tri...the gfs daughter asked how much ... I said ''bout $800'' so the $1100 I got was nice
 

go fullta

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#23
fallon rode yeats arragontly i believe, although i did here aiden obrien say that he would want him to ride him on the speed with plenty of room. he had no room when he had the ideal spot back in the field early in the race.

and as for someone saying fallon did the right thing going foward (after having a good spot on the fence back in the field early) with the weight.....excuse me? how do you expect a horse too work that hard with 59kg and still win? come on son, pull your head in.

as i said the other night, the connections believed delta blues would be better then pop rock in the melb cup,further distance. and as for me saying it was overs, well i didnt have a cent on it.

my only collect for the day was heresay each way, then i lost it, very depressing day on course for me.

maybe better was a good effort, enhances irazu's form, who i backed on saturday and will be on again next start. will maybe better,leica falcon, efficent be early australian favourites for next years cups?
 

starz

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#24
Yeats and Tawqeet were way under the odds and i said as much before the race so no aftertiming here. Both never looked like it.
The two Japanese horses were well versed at the distance of 3+km and that was the difference in the last 400m. The trainer said as much after the race.
Our horses race from 1.2k to 2.5k. Japanese racing starts at 2km.
But how were we to get a good formline on them?

Zipping had only raced once or twice at 2500m the rest were 2km or less and his first time stepping up 700m really told having to sprint the first 700 to counter barrier 20 and get in a good position which was a good tactic but may have ultimately backfired. Needed a few more distance races under his belt, anything under 3km and he would have been very hard to beat. Tried his heart out and 5.7 to place was great value, just fell short.
Maybe Better surprised me, top effort to back up after just 3 days.

The rest were never in it.
 

bresker

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#25
fallon rode yeats arragontly i believe, although i did here aiden obrien say that he would want him to ride him on the speed with plenty of room. he had no room when he had the ideal spot back in the field early in the race.

and as for someone saying fallon did the right thing going foward (after having a good spot on the fence back in the field early) with the weight.....excuse me? how do you expect a horse too work that hard with 59kg and still win? come on son, pull your head in.
I agree, although the horse has lumped 61.5kg around tracks in Ireland and Britain and won. I think the horses it beat were usually carrying about 58-59kg, though, so this is a bit misleading.

Fallon seemed to think all he had to do was position Yeats in front at the turn and the horse would gallop away. But he was foolhardy to follow Zabeet, as that horse was going along at a ridiculous pace. It faded to finish deadset last, so Yeats did well to hang on to 7th after challenging it at the 3/4 mark.

If Yeats was the top stayer he was spruiked to be why did Fallon need to corner at the head of the field? The horse has won from leading and swooping positions before.

I'm also getting inceasingly tired of European horses not running in lead up races. The usual excuse we are given is "that's not the way we do things in Europe." Well, unless your name is Dermot Weld it's not working. The Japanese have the sense to give their horses at least 1 race in Melbourne prior to the Cup.

It's interesting to hear Damien Oliver talk about Japanese training methods. Apparently they walk their horses more than they gallop them. That's how they get the miles into their legs. Walk, walk, walk. I wonder if any local trainers will try this when preparing stayers.
 
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