Mega Thread Melbourne Cup 2016 and all Cup day racing discussion.

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Chief's Cheeky Ad:



=====================================

Ok, it's time for the annual Punting Board Melbourne Cup thread. It's proved to be a good source of Cup winner in past years.

All the important info on the Cup is here:
https://rv.racing.com/racing-and-integrity/race-dates/feature-race-conditions

Nominations close 6 September. The first order of entry comes out on 16 September.
 
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I can't see any ridiculous value yet.

I like the look of Curren Mirotic, but there's no value in his price given he still needs to run well in his next engagement (likely to be September 25). Unlike Fame Game, he's got tactical speed which is pretty important most years. Knockers will say he hasn't won for 2 years and he's getting on a bit. It's not a valid criticism for mine because he was beaten a pixel into second in the Group 1 Tenno Sho in May this year.

I think we'll see a continuing resurgence in Kiwi stayers with Tavago and Tarzino hopefully measuring up. Provocative was a strong winner of the Queensland Oaks, but the track was deteriorating badly by then and the margin may have flattered her.
 

iluvparis

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#4
Big Orange got the suck run up on the pace last year and couldn't do it - would be staggered if he is good enough to go any better this year (presumably will get more weight too given his European exploits).

Still - might end up a half decent hedging opportunity I guess if he comes.
 

sethlad

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#5
Last years result makes it feel like all bets are off.

There were a few things you could be sure of in the modern Cup, until 2015.
So assuming last year was a once in a lifetime result,Ill wait til OOE.

seth
 

iluvparis

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#6
Last years result makes it feel like all bets are off.

There were a few things you could be sure of in the modern Cup, until 2015.
So assuming last year was a once in a lifetime result,Ill wait til OOE.

seth
Yup - won't be throwing out any of my trend analysis based on a once in a century fluke.
 

HeathComeBack

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Interestingly there are no Japanese horses entered for the Caulfield Cup, just wondering if this is going to be the same for the Melb Cup
 

OhhhhhCyril

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Interestingly there are no Japanese horses entered for the Caulfield Cup, just wondering if this is going to be the same for the Melb Cup
Interesting, I don't have much knowledge when it comes to internationals except when I know some kinda of important lead up race is on I might stay up. How far superior were the Japanese horses rated above our own? I remember reading before Admire Rakti won the CC, he was just rated an average country cups type horse.. ( please correct me if I am dead set wrong) if that was the case, why wouldn't they come down in large numbers, surly the $$ is reasonable enough?
 

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The $$$ in Japan are also huge - that's why we get the lesser horses who can't win said prizemoney at home.

AR had won just once in his last 12 starts ahead of the Caulfield Cup (Group 3) and generally started $20+ in Japanese group 1s.
 

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FallingLiefs

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he'll get topweight. 58 maybe 58.5 + penalties. waiting for the the kergolay as it seems it's his next stop and then if he goes half ok he probably tries to repeat the same path he had last time. only interesting thing weight wise is what they do with OOSG, but really he ain't coming so that doesn't matter as all the weights will just go up.

mathematically if he comes here in the same form it doesn't matter what weight he gets now that it's a modern weight scale as he won with 56.5 from memory and if he's back to that level he just wins.
 

sethlad

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#14
Interestingly there are no Japanese horses entered for the Caulfield Cup, just wondering if this is going to be the same for the Melb Cup
Tommy Berry has basically commited to Curren Mirotic so he must have a fairly good hope of being here

seth
 

iluvparis

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mathematically if he comes here in the same form it doesn't matter what weight he gets now that it's a modern weight scale as he won with 56.5 from memory and if he's back to that level he just wins.
Classic Liefs hyperbole from the top draw! :D 3 months out and he's across the line!!

He will never get back to that level - it was a complete fluke with a race pace we probably won't see again for 20 years.
 

iluvparis

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#17
Apart from two wins in Germany?

That's not how handicapping works - you have to handicap him on his 2014 win
 

Chism

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he'll get topweight. 58 maybe 58.5 + penalties. waiting for the the kergolay as it seems it's his next stop and then if he goes half ok he probably tries to repeat the same path he had last time. only interesting thing weight wise is what they do with OOSG, but really he ain't coming so that doesn't matter as all the weights will just go up.

mathematically if he comes here in the same form it doesn't matter what weight he gets now that it's a modern weight scale as he won with 56.5 from memory and if he's back to that level he just wins.
How do you know this?

All reports i have heard he was coming? I like Order of St George but do agree IF he does come he will get weight as he should blow them away on anything less than 57kgs.

I won on a mutli the day before when i put this bet on so i wanted to put it on with winnings! He has been shortening ever since!

OOSG.JPG

If he comes he does if not so be it!
 

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I thought Bondi Beach was ordinary running third in the Ballyroan Stakes overnight. Doesn't appear to have the turn of foot to be a factor in the Cup. Lloyd seemed underwhelmed too - might need to buy another half dozen Galileos...

He had some excuses last year, being posted wide and copping some of the wash from the Max Dynamite check. But he never seemed to be travelling like the winner.

Godolphin horse, Scottish, runs in the Rose of Lancaster (G3) on Saturday. He's only a listed winner at this stage, but he's favourite for the race and the word is that, if he wins, he'll be coming straight down for both Cups. Initially they'd suggested that the Cox Plate was the go - presumably someone mentioned they might like to organise a G1 win first. James McDonald's quoted as saying he'll be suited here because he's got a turn of foot. But distance may be a query over 2 miles. If he wins tomorrow then he certainly comes into play for the CC, and at $301 he's probably worth a small bet now...

Other horses of interest on the weekend are Almandin and Nordic Flight in races 3 and 5 at Flemington tomorrow. Both have plenty to do to qualify.
 
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Almandin and Nordic Flight both pretty plain yesterday.

Scottish ran second. Some suggestion they still intend to bring him down. If they want to get in either cup, I think he'd need to be winning a decent race.
 

iluvparis

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#21
Almandin and Nordic Flight both pretty plain yesterday.
Both would be 1000/1 to to feature in either Cup - hence they were running Yesterday.

Agree Bondi Beach just seems to be going backwards since about halfway through last year.

Scottish has never been one of mine and doesn't seem to be to be the type of horse punters would steam into ante post so I'd just be waiting to see if he even comes.
 

sethlad

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#22
Godolphin were talking up Elite Army as a likely visitor.
Not 100% convinced on his Prince of Wales effort but its rare they declare their hand so early

seth
 

iluvparis

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Godolphin were talking up Elite Army as a likely visitor.
Not 100% convinced on his Prince of Wales* effort but its rare they declare their hand so early

seth
*Princess of Wales just in case anyone thinks it was the big Royal Ascot Group 1
He was dead last in the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood beaten 30 lengths since then.

Looked a very promising handicapper last season but has had two epic fails since being stepped up to Stakes grade.
 
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sethlad

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#25
Murrell said this morning that Protectionist is an 80% chance NOT to be here.
Runs Sunday night & they are talking Canada & then breeders cup

seth
 
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