LukeParkerno1
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Not if you are claiming she didn't get penalised.
She did.
End of story.
Not as if she won't have to beat quality horses in the MC anyway, it isn't as if they are giving the Cup to Jameka today.
Mega Thread Melbourne Cup 2016 and all Cup day racing discussion.
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Not if you are claiming she didn't get penalised.
She did.
End of story.
Not as if she won't have to beat quality horses in the MC anyway, it isn't as if they are giving the Cup to Jameka today.
LukeParkerno1
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Then Hartnell had to be more than 55kilos.
1.5kilo difference is about right between the two. Hartnell beat Jameka by lengths last start.
iluvparis
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FWIW Master O'Reilly got 1.5 too, i would have given her 2kg but she's effectively top weight on the WFA scale, 1kg clear if Preferment comes out too.... makes no difference what Hartnell is.
excess knowledge must be a good thing then. 1.5kg difference = 3.25L with Hartnell being hard held then EK beats Almanin by 2L+
excess knowledge must be a good thing then. 1.5kg difference = 3.25L with Hartnell being hard held then EK beats Almanin by 2L+
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i didnt say she didnt get penalised, i am the one who first posted it!! she didnt get penalised adequately
the field is full of a bunch of *******s. Just like the Caulfield Cup
the field is full of a bunch of *******s. Just like the Caulfield Cup
iluvparis
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You've forget to factor in the extra zeros you hard coded into EK's rating in your spreadsheets.
LukeParkerno1
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Excess Knowledge will be gunning for last past the post.
I'm liking Jameka/Almanin quinella though.
LukeParkerno1
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Each to their own. The penalty is fine in my view, especially considering I'm liking my bet on Jameka last week. She has been penalised a fair bit.
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if the Turnbull was run again over 2400 this weekend at the current MC weights Hartnell would beat Jameka by 6. not sure there's value in Jameka improving by 6 or Hartnell go backward by 6 over 3200.
PieBeast
Brownlow Medallist
Thought I'd share.
The Pumper was seen placing a 1000K treble on Saturday with Jameka Caulfield Cup, Winx Cox Plate into Bondi Beach.
The Pumper was seen placing a 1000K treble on Saturday with Jameka Caulfield Cup, Winx Cox Plate into Bondi Beach.
iluvparis
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He went backward more than 6 in the Sydney Cup.
I would be staggered if he gets anywhere near his Turnball rating over 3200m - truly shocked. It would mean he has basically looked the best in the world 1600m to 3200m - the odds of that happening must be close to zero.
Plus I expect Jameka to improve 2000/3200.
LukeParkerno1
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I'd take Jameka at $6 rather than Hartnell. Hartnell won't run out 3200m.
Nothing to suggest either will stay 2 miles really. Id much rather be on the horse who is panels better at 2000-2400m
LukeParkerno1
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Big difference running 2000-2400m and running 3200m. I'd be almost more surprised if Hartnell won ahead of most horses in the field. It is gross unders when it has never run a 3200m race out. Went backwards in the Sydney Cup.
I know there is a big difference, which is the reason why i wont be backing either. But he looks more impressive over a mile and a half than she does
iluvparis
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I'd much rather be on the one that hasn't repeatedly failed at 3200m
PS - * I love spring banter
LukeParkerno1
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A mile yes, 2000m yes, but anything more and I'm avoiding Hartnell. It is probably why even though it will probably lose, having a crack at Winx is its best hope to snag a major.
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overall rating top line is world class second line is WFA class
Jameka, pre CC.
Hartnell
stayer ratings, line below 0 is race is at suitable distance.
Jameka
Hartnell
3200m races inconclusive for Hartnell but trend is average.
basically they look hard to split but both look unlikely to bring the A game.
Jameka, pre CC.
Hartnell
stayer ratings, line below 0 is race is at suitable distance.
Jameka
Hartnell
3200m races inconclusive for Hartnell but trend is average.
basically they look hard to split but both look unlikely to bring the A game.
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For those of you keen to back a horse proven at 3200m, he's on a flight down from Japan as we speak
iluvparis
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I'll stick to horses who have actually showed a touch of form since HK was given back to China
iluvparis
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Now this is some good analysis
But surely this is the case for almost every horse in Australia. They are all a lot worse 3200m v 2400m - it's just the matter of finding the ones that are the least worse (in this case your chart's suggest Jameka).
LukeParkerno1
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I'm not getting sucked into that again!
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Now this is some good analysis
But surely this is the case for almost every horse in Australia. They are all a lot worse 3200m v 2400m - it's just the matter of finding the ones that are the least worse (in this case your chart's suggest Jameka).
i can't split them personally. 1 points toward Hartnell the other Jameka. Hartnell has more potential to completely flop as Jameka is tougher but if it turns into a bit of sit and sprint i'd be on Hartnell as he has peaks over further. plenty of horses with positive trends in aus, Almoonqith, gallante, Preferment if he were in form 50-50 on Almandin but beginning to get quite confident with him.
iluvparis
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I think this was the point I was making yesterday - the horses with positive trends are too slow and not good enough to win. If you guaranteed to stay the trip than for mine you're too slow. I think history points to this as well.
I agree with your point. Jameka is more consistent v the more explosive Hartnell who has had some shockers at the trip. I think that means they deserve to be equal faves but as I like consistent horses I lean towards Jameka. Also historically horses that win the CC as well as her start much shorter than her current price at Flemington.
Did a similar chart to yours for Vadamos and line of best fit (R^2 22%) has him about 5 lengths worse 2000 v 1600. If you wanted to ignore that you'd say he only got good this year so his prior 2000m starts can be ignored (although he got flogged by ASH over 1800 on that bog)
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