Mega Thread Melbourne Cup 2016 and all Cup day racing discussion.

[rideclutch]

yeah Autstralian peak but I have his peak as the day he beat Protectacat in Germany.

Ollie throttled him right down the other day, could've rated well higher if he was punched out to the line.

He's the one P - forget the traditional lead-ups and Almoonqith side-action and hop on the #lloydwagon with me...

 

[iluvparis]

That is true Clutchy but I can only go on the results not how far he would have won by if he pushed out.

This was just a thought exercise. I think he is a great chance in the race.

 

[Jugada]

It has no chance in a MC.

Won't discount it fluking a place, most years some donkey does!

Has no chance, but can place?

It actually hurts

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Has no chance, but can place?

It actually hurts

It will be lengths behind in my view. I can't see it. I won't discount some donkey running in the top 4-6, will that be your one, I doubt it, but I won't dismiss it happening. A surprising horse always runs better than everyone expects, happens most year's.

 

[sethlad]

Preferment wont be running in Cup according to Waller this morning.
Looks like weights go up a kilo minimum

seth

 

[Mobythepom]

Others reported to be doubtful or already ruled out include Tarzino, The United States, Exosphere, Scottish, Tally, Sir John Hawkwood, Howard Be Thy Name, Fanatic, Zanteca, Sacred Master and Antonio Giuseppe. Aloft could be around the cut off point if we allow for one or two new ones to come into it after the Geelong, Lexus etc.

 

[Whowants2know]

Preferment wont be running in Cup according to Waller this morning.
Looks like weights go up a kilo minimum

seth

Surely that won't help Jameka, If weights go up 1kg plus the penalty for winning the CC, she being carrying 54.5 / 55kg that is a really tough ask

 

[sethlad]

Others reported to be doubtful or already ruled out include Tarzino, The United States, Exosphere, Scottish, Tally, Sir John Hawkwood, Howard Be Thy Name, Fanatic, Zanteca, Sacred Master and Antonio Giuseppe. Aloft could be around the cut off point if we allow for one or two new ones to come into it after the Geelong, Lexus etc.

Oshea said today that Tally would run in Lexus but very doubtful to push on.
Tarzino & TUS are definitely out, Scottish is apparently going to 2000m race, Zanteca is injured & retired.

The rest are all still possible but certainly not guaranteed to run

seth

 

[sethlad]

Surely that won't help Jameka, If weights go up 1kg plus the penalty for winning the CC, she being carrying 54.5 / 55kg that is a really tough ask

I guess its all relative but not ideal for a 4yo mare

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Others reported to be doubtful or already ruled out include Tarzino, The United States, Exosphere, Scottish, Tally, Sir John Hawkwood, Howard Be Thy Name, Fanatic, Zanteca, Sacred Master and Antonio Giuseppe. Aloft could be around the cut off point if we allow for one or two new ones to come into it after the Geelong, Lexus etc.

Yup really dropping away.

I greened up all of Scottish and half of Exo Saturday night and have taken out the other half of my Exo position this morning.

Basically down to a free swing on Wicklow Brave (had a handful of others that never got here or a being held hostage by Lol'Shea)

 

[Tippaz]

i had a $5EW bet on Exospheric in the Caulfield Cup and feel compelled to stick with him in the Melbourne Cup

he reminds me of Criterion from last year

 

[iluvparis]

i had a $5EW bet on Exospheric in the Caulfield Cup and feel compelled to stick with him in the Melbourne Cup

he reminds me of Criterion from last year

 

[LukeParkerno1]

i had a $5EW bet on Exospheric in the Caulfield Cup and feel compelled to stick with him in the Melbourne Cup

he reminds me of Criterion from last year

He's pretty unlikely to run in the MC at this stage.

 

[Tippaz]

he's come through some tough races in England like Criterion last year. same age, similar weight, similar Melbourne Cup odds
Criterion came 2nd in the Cox Plate compared to Exospheric's 3rd in the Caulfield Cup
(and i backed them both)

i see some similarities

 

[iluvparis]

Fair points - I concede.

 

[sethlad]

Apparently Fanatic is done for spring now too
Latest OOE was out yesterday, can someone post it pls

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Apparently Fanatic is done for spring now too
Latest OOE was out yesterday, can someone post it pls

seth

https://cdn.racing.com/~/media/rv/f...nces-elimination-order-as-at-oct-17.pdf?la=en

Going to be A LOT of out of form horses praying they find their best.

A nice win from either of the Appleby horses at Geelong should see them move well up in the betting.

 

[Mobythepom]

https://cdn.racing.com/~/media/rv/f...nces-elimination-order-as-at-oct-17.pdf?la=en

Going to be A LOT of out of form horses praying they find their best.

A nice win from either of the Appleby horses at Geelong should see them move well up in the betting.

A second place finish in the Geelong Cup should give a slot just above Pemberley, which COULD be enough, but would all my list to drop out, the Geelong Cup winner NOT to be his other runner or Arab Dawn, and nothing to spring up from below from any of the other races, so it looks likely that only the winner will do enough to get in.

 

[Mobythepom]

Fair points - I concede.

Has someone hacked your account?!

 

[plays tall 1]

https://cdn.racing.com/~/media/rv/f...nces-elimination-order-as-at-oct-17.pdf?la=en

Going to be A LOT of out of form horses praying they find their best.

A nice win from either of the Appleby horses at Geelong should see them move well up in the betting.

Huge attrition rate this year. Partly due to lower number of qualified international entries.

 

[plays tall 1]

A second place finish in the Geelong Cup should give a slot just above Pemberley, which COULD be enough, but would all my list to drop out, the Geelong Cup winner NOT to be his other runner or Arab Dawn, and nothing to spring up from below from any of the other races, so it looks likely that only the winner will do enough to get in.

Arab Dawn scratched from the Geelong Cup and heading to the paddock.

 

[plays tall 1]

If Oceanographer was to make the Cup field off tomorrow's Geelong Cup without penalty, he'd have an 8kg swing in the weights on Heartbreak City (from the Ebor), albeit for a 9 length defeat.

 

[iluvparis]

If Oceanographer was to make the Cup field off tomorrow's Geelong Cup without penalty, he'd have an 8kg swing in the weights on Heartbreak City (from the Ebor), albeit for a 9 length defeat.

Plus be proven to have acclimatized

 

[Mobythepom]

If Oceanographer was to make the Cup field off tomorrow's Geelong Cup without penalty, he'd have an 8kg swing in the weights on Heartbreak City (from the Ebor), albeit for a 9 length defeat.

In the Ebor HC carried 9.1 against Oceanographer's 9.7. So HC received 6lbs. They were only rated 1lb apart by the handicapper but HC was amateur ridden and given a 5lbs weight allowance.

Their current MC weights show HC having to concede 7lbs. There will be no amateur jockey weight allowances so Oceanographer is currently 13lbs better off (6kg). However to get into the race it will probably need to win and is likely to cop a penalty so the 9 length margin at York and a weight pull of say 11lbs will be pretty spot on when you allow for the fact that HC will be professionally ridden this time.

If Oceanographer can win and prove it has settled in then there shouldn't be too much between them, but over 3,200m I would still side with HC unless Oceanographer is very dominant in the Geelong Cup.

If Qewy or Oceanographer win nicely I would expect them to be put in around the 12-1 or 14-1 mark for the big one.

Almandin my #1 at the moment. Connections seem most taken with him out of their chances too.

 

[sethlad]

Only seen Ebor replay without commentary.
Is Oceanographer the horse who gets blocked then runs on up inside wearing white cap?

seth