Racing Melbourne Cup 2017

[FFB1]

I'm not sure why you're being so precious Paris. Seth mentioned he was impressed enough with WOFs run the other night and I responded with I hope he's right as I had a small go odds 6 times his wound in odds, backed up with evidence. What's wrong with that? Is that against the rules? I can't see why, it's relevant enough to the conversation?

Nice shopping hey, have sold off plenty and spread it across some other potential runners.

Anyway.

 

[iluvparis]

After timed bet 10 wks before the result
Some of your best work right there Paris

seth

Perhaps read my whole post next time

 

[iluvparis]

I'm not sure why you're being so precious Paris. Seth mentioned he was impressed enough with WOFs run the other night and I responded with I hope he's right as I had a small go odds 6 times his wound in odds, backed up with evidence. What's wrong with that? Is that against the rules? I can't see why, it's relevant enough to the conversation?

Nice shopping hey, have sold off plenty and spread it across some other potential runners.

Anyway.

We were happily debating the relative merits of the form, before seth suggested the horse was $300 a few days ago - which is completely irrelevant to the discussion given that it was nowhere near the current price and is therefore completely irrelevant to the discussion.

The fact someone may have backed the horse at that price is irrelevant unless you post it shortly after the time - why do we care? How many other horses have you backed that went the wrong way? Posting an antepost bet from a week ago AFTER the horse has firmed is exactly the same as after timing a winning bet which is why your post was rightfully deleted.

Where it IS relevant is if you have taken the big odds, don't disclose the fact, and then talk up the horses chances trying to get other people to back it allowing you to lay off your bet.

Seth provides a lot of valuable info in this thread each year. However, he does IMHO love to put a bit of extra mayo on the ones he has cash on. He will also push back quite heavily against criticism of those horses.

 

[sethlad]

Ok that insinuation that I only post here to improve my trading position is straight out offensive.

10 + yrs of trying to help people with info on overseas horses & this is what I get.
I'm done,the enforcer has spoken.
You can now make up as many "rules" as you like on the run.

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Did I say only? Nice melt

 

[plays tall 1]

Ok that insinuation that I only post here to improve my trading position is straight out offensive.

10 + yrs of trying to help people with info on overseas horses & this is what I get.
I'm done,the enforcer has spoken.
You can now make up as many "rules" as you like on the run.

seth

Hopefully not Seth, this board will be the poorer for it.

 

[rideclutch]

Some precious types in here... you blokes should be happy Paris doesn't like your 300-1 horse.

At least it might make it back to the stables without seeing the green screen

 

[bigpapagman]

Meltdoooooown

 

[FFB1]

Some precious types in here... you blokes should be happy Paris doesn't like your 300-1 horse.

At least it might make it back to the stables without seeing the green screen

The only precious one here is Paris who for some reason can't accept anyone posting their antepost punts. Maybe cos he missed the odds and trading opportuntiy, dunno. Pretty convenient that all those posts are gone for the late comers.

And as far as the Seth meltdown, if my character was questioned like it was then fair ****ing enough as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Ebor Hcp tomorrow night, keen watch for me on Ivan Groszny and Soldier of Fortune.

Thoughts sethlad ?

 

[rideclutch]

The only precious one here is Paris who for some reason can't accept anyone posting their antepost punts. Maybe cos he missed the odds and trading opportuntiy, dunno. Pretty convenient that all those posts are gone for the late comers.

And as far as the Seth meltdown, if my character was questioned like it was then fair ******* enough as far as I'm concerned.

Character questioned? It's a bloke you've never met on an internet forum, who you don't rate his opinion anyway - why give a **** what he thinks?

As for the horse, just watched his run and thought it was OK without wanting to pile in, but if it's getting on the plane and coming then you're winning already AFAIC

 

[TBellicious]

Back to topic now

Key race for a couple internationals in the market at 11:30 ish tonight at York over 3200. Thomas Hobson (26s ATM) out to $5 with TAB for this race. Dartmouth (35s) is second fave. As previously mentioned the fave Da Harralid is + $300 with TAB. No idea what their plans are however

 

[rideclutch]

Strange race. St Michel travelled up big time but then didn't run it out as strong as the other two.

Dartmouth is a nice horse, can see why his record is so good.

 

[PerthBoy87]

Heartbreak City won the Ebor Handicap in 2016 and went on to finish 2nd in the Melbourne Cup later that year.

Purple Moon also won the Ebor Handicap in 2007 and went on to finish 2nd in the Cup.

In 2008 All The Good won the Ebor Handicap and went on to win the Caulfield Cup later that year.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Looks like Ebor will be providing nothing this year
Can't see the winner heading down

 

[iluvparis]

The only precious one here is Paris who for some reason can't accept anyone posting their antepost punts. Maybe cos he missed the odds and trading opportuntiy, dunno. Pretty convenient that all those posts are gone for the late comers.

And as far as the Seth meltdown, if my character was questioned like it was then fair ******* enough as far as I'm concerned.

I can't accept it because its against the rules - I'm not a mod here os they obviously feel the same

 

[iluvparis]

Strange race. St Michel travelled up big time but then didn't run it out as strong as the other two.

Dartmouth is a nice horse, can see why his record is so good.

Agree - Tom Hob travelled up like he was Winx at the 400 but found absolutely zero. St Michel also travelled beautifully but then didn't really let down and couldn't even run past Dartmouth who is a real grinder. I don't rate the winner at all so a few question marks around the form for me.

Tom Hob and St Michael travelled like horses that would be suited in Melbourne - can the trainers improve them enough so they finish off better? If I could see them run in a lead up I might be interested but if they go straight to Flemington you'd be absolutely guessing.

 

[iluvparis]

Looks like Ebor will be providing nothing this year
Can't see the winner heading down

Yup - winner couldn't even get into the Ebor last year so has to be huge question marks over the quality. Soldier Of Fortune went awful as did Seymour who were both touted as coming before that.

Tiberian won in France overnight over 2400. He is beating the same horses over and over again and not sure he is racing against much but you can't knock winning form I guess.

I think its telling the fave on betfair is the Japanese horse who hasn't raced since April - nothing that has raced recently has stamped much of a marker for mine. Although I see Red Cardinal has been backed back in again despite a huge flop in the Kergolay so the Australian Bloodstock fappers are obviously still keen.

 

[PerthBoy87]

At this stage I like Red Cardinal. He should get around I reckon between 55kg - 56kg roughly for the Cup. His run in the Prix Kergolay (3000m) wasnt a total flop in my opinion - he ran on okish.

But think of it this way.....
I reckon whatever races he runs in between now and the Melbourne Cup he wont be winning - only running on well. If Red Cardinal were to keep winning then his rating will possibly go up which means more weight for the Cup and connections wont want that. As the old saying goes when it comes to the Cup: "Get 'em in as light as possible"

Red Cardinal's plan is too get to Australia and then run in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) and then on to the Cup. This is the same path as Protectionist took (ran 4th) and its the same owners and trainer involved with Red Cardinal as it was with Protectionist.

I remember when Protectionist ran 4th in that Herbert Power Stakes in 2014, he carried 59kg and only finished 0.9 lengths away from the winner.

 

[iluvparis]

At this stage I like Red Cardinal. He should get around I reckon between 55kg - 56kg roughly for the Cup. His run in the Prix Kergolay (3000m) wasnt a total flop in my opinion - he ran on okish.

Very generous - was a very VERY ordinary run and couldn't possibly win on that effort. The plus side is he will run here first so will get a look at him but couldn't touch him as equal fave right now - Oz Bloodstock horses also tend to start huge unders.

You're kidding yourself if they tried to run him dead in the Kergolay to protect his weight - he just ran awful. All the winners out of the Kergolay in the past have ran well.

 

[PerthBoy87]

Very generous - was a very VERY ordinary run and couldn't possibly win on that effort. The plus side is he will run here first so will get a look at him but couldn't touch him as equal fave right now - Oz Bloodstock horses also tend to start huge unders.

You're kidding yourself if they tried to run him dead in the Kergolay to protect his weight - he just ran awful. All the winners out of the Kergolay in the past have ran well.

2010: Americain won the Kergorlay and won the Cup.

2011: Dunaden ran 9th in the Kergorlay and won the Cup.

2014: Protectionist won the Kergorlay (in a four horse field) and won the Cup.

I agree the run from Red Cardinal wasnt good but it wasnt horrendous, ive seen worse runs.

Hopefully he can run well in the Herbert Power.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Running in races means sweat FA. Cup winner could be in a Donald maiden ATM.

 

[iluvparis]

2010: Americain won the Kergorlay and won the Cup.

2011: Dunaden ran 9thin the Kergorlay and won the Cup.

2014: Protectionist won the Kergorlay (in a four horse field) and won the Cup.

I agree the run from Red Cardinal wasnt good but it wasnt horrendous, ive seen worse runs.

Hopefully he can run well in the Herbert Power.

I'll admit I had forgotten Dunaden ran so poorly in the Kergolay - he did however win the Geelong Cup to show he'd travelled well. The other two won the race.

That's why I'd say there is no point backing RC now when he is almost joint fave off a shocker. May as well wait and see how he runs in Australia.

 

[iluvparis]

Running in races means sweat FA. Cup winner could be in a Donald maiden ATM.

Truly horrendous call for a race with 150+ years of history.

Who was the last winner to race in a maiden in the same spring they won the Cup?

It's why Sydney horses are the first I put a line through each year.

 

[PerthBoy87]

Truly horrendous call for a race with 150+ years of history.

Who was the last winner to race in a maiden in the same spring they won the Cup?

It's why Sydney horses are the first I put a line through each year.

The last Cup winner who ran in any leadup race in Sydney was Might And Power in 1997. Since then all Cup winners have had all thier leadup races in Melbourne.