Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)

The winner is.....


  • Total voters
    130
  • Poll closed .

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
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Anyway I think the lesson is the same as always.

Look for the progressive horses.

We just always forget or get seduced by a certain runner in the lead up by the next year.

Of course Marmelo was the exception this year so even if you are heavily disciplined and don't buy into hype there is always one to tip you out anyhow.
 

iluvparis

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The unders argument based off the fixed odds was why I went around it for the win this year :p

For those that like back fitting data for shits n gigs I decided to add the dosage indicators to my spreadsheet.

The top 6 in racebook order - Magic Circle, Marmelo, Yucatan, Finche, A Prince of Arran, Cross Counter.

Solid year for the DI ;)
Not for the Ebor form though ;) how's the classic no show from old mate moby over 24 hours after another failed attempt from the most overrated Cup form race in history.
 

FFB1

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Feb 25, 2007
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I hope you are right,magnificent beasts who should be treated the same way in retirement.
My retired ones have it good, all living it up at one of three farms.

My ones still running around all have it good too. Trainers and staff treat them like Kings and Queens.

Sadly lost one real good one to a snake bite. Unfortunately the RSPCA and PETA weren’t available for comment, didn’t fit their agenda.
 

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Cuzz09

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Sep 21, 2004
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I heard this on the radio and tend to agree...

The Australian Open is an international competition as is the Melbourne cup.

Imagine if we didnt allow internationals in the Oz Open it would be a joke of a comp as would the Melb Cup if 24 Oz horses ran.

Build it up even more overseas i reckon.

If an Aussie horse is good enough one day it'll be a better win.
 

Deliverance

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2011
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I heard this on the radio and tend to agree...

The Australian Open is an international competition as is the Melbourne cup.

Imagine if we didnt allow internationals in the Oz Open it would be a joke of a comp as would the Melb Cup if 24 Oz horses ran.

Build it up even more overseas i reckon.

If an Aussie horse is good enough one day it'll be a better win.
Not a great comparison really. The Oz open works because the same players play each other all year. We can line up their form and follow great rivalries that exist over many years. That creates interest. Most of the cup horses have little or no connection to many other horses in the race (maybe serious punters might see it??). There's no history between them. Makes for a more boring race and a high requirement of luck to pick winners. Just have to look at the poll here to see that. Don't see how the internationals make it a better race. Not like they're faster than winners of the past. I love the day for BBQing. But the love of the race is gone for me. I'd be interested to know if audiences and attendees are trending up or down.
 

iluvparis

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Now moving away from crazy ban the foreigners talk - any thoughts on the heinous quaddie unders on the day!?!? The tote all up would have got you close to 77k yet the quaddie only paid 25!!! Dead as a bet type?
 

Bombers32

Debutant
Sep 13, 2018
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I heard this on the radio and tend to agree...

The Australian Open is an international competition as is the Melbourne cup.

Imagine if we didnt allow internationals in the Oz Open it would be a joke of a comp as would the Melb Cup if 24 Oz horses ran.

Build it up even more overseas i reckon.

If an Aussie horse is good enough one day it'll be a better win.
I said that on here a few days ago. I suggested that we could see Barty and Millman win a grand slam. No disrespect to those guys but the event would lose its appeal very quickly. I don’t get why people are banging on with ‘poor us we can no longer compete’. Firstly, if we absolutely chose to, we could compete and secondly if we choose not to breed and produce and nurture stayers so be it. The result is a race that the whole world is aware of, it generates millions for the local economy and Melbourne has the sports world’s attention as it does for a couple of weeks in Jan.
 

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
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Now moving away from crazy ban the foreigners talk - any thoughts on the heinous quaddie unders on the day!?!? The tote all up would have got you close to 77k yet the quaddie only paid 25!!! Dead as a bet type?
Z killed multiples a long long time ago. I take a tri in the CC and a tri and a F4 in the MC and that is it for the year.
 

Tigerandy63

All Australian
Oct 20, 2007
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Now moving away from crazy ban the foreigners talk - any thoughts on the heinous quaddie unders on the day!?!? The tote all up would have got you close to 77k yet the quaddie only paid 25!!! Dead as a bet type?
You're not comparing apples with apples here. The quaddie is chock full of thousands of combinations taken for as little as 1% of the dividend. Of course it's going to be diluted. To get that all up you have to pick it one out (highly unlikely) or try it with 3-4 runners per leg, it would cost you upwards of $200 and still almost impossible. No, it's nowhere near a dead bet type. When they introduced the flexi bet, I thought my chances of landing a quaddie would improve 100 fold, but all it's done is give me way more 3 leg quaddies. There is always one that tips you out, no matter how much you spend.
 

iluvparis

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With modern technology it is very easy to program to take the all up so the two should be equivalent.

It is in utter disgrace how much it paid on Tuesday.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
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Absolute garbage dividends on Tuesday but in general i think they still provide a good bet. More often than not its the huge pools on big race days that end up paying unders from my uninformed feel
 

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HeathComeBack

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Running Doubles are underated as a bet. Only have to pick 2 and if you spend the same amount as you would on the quad you can probably win as much or more. Just got to stay away from Stable doubles, spruke horses who always pay crap and high numbers for the lazy. Pools in Melbourne are big enough
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
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As for internationals in the cup, there is a simple fix that will never happen, Raise the topweight to 60 and stop compressing the weights. As long as this weight scale remains the overseas horses will dominate. Our stayers are crap, they should be rated accordingly and then weighted accordingly, The overseas might whinge but i bet a lot will still come. At the moment the overseas horses are thrown in.
 

Cuzz09

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If Australia was serious about competing with internationals in long distance racing then we would put more prizemoney in these types of races and pump them up and make it attractive for trainers to train them.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
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If Australia was serious about competing with internationals in long distance racing then we would put more prizemoney in these types of races and pump them up and make it attractive for trainers to train them.
There is no chance of Australia breeding stayers while the breeders are running the industry into the ground.
 

IKnowtheDog

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Jan 25, 2016
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Wait until they come for the Everest. The internationals are bringing out the right horses for our races and the prize money (even with poor exchange rate) is a dream eh; Cranbourne Cup. An interesting comment I heard recently was that Stradivarius will only be useful as a hunt stallion, hence why they continue to race him.
 

Trucker Tiger

All Australian
Mar 19, 2016
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I heard this on the radio and tend to agree...

The Australian Open is an international competition as is the Melbourne cup.

Imagine if we didnt allow internationals in the Oz Open it would be a joke of a comp as would the Melb Cup if 24 Oz horses ran.

Build it up even more overseas i reckon.

If an Aussie horse is good enough one day it'll be a better win.
The world watches the Australian Open.

The sum of the international audience for the Cup is about 60, most of whom are Sheikh Moh’s wives and kids.

Raising the weights and having more auto-entry events, such as provincial and other state Cups is the way to go.
 

iluvparis

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Running Doubles are underated as a bet. Only have to pick 2 and if you spend the same amount as you would on the quad you can probably win as much or more. Just got to stay away from Stable doubles, spruke horses who always pay crap and high numbers for the lazy. Pools in Melbourne are big enough
Fave/fave also tends to pay absolutely poison too
 

iluvparis

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As for internationals in the cup, there is a simple fix that will never happen, Raise the topweight to 60 and stop compressing the weights. As long as this weight scale remains the overseas horses will dominate. Our stayers are crap, they should be rated accordingly and then weighted accordingly, The overseas might whinge but i bet a lot will still come. At the moment the overseas horses are thrown in.
If you raise the weights though all that will happen is that the weight you need to get in goes up accordingly. There will be heaps with 55/55.5 with maybe the Bart Cummings and Lexus winner with 51/52.
 

Deliverance

Norm Smith Medallist
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If you are not going to do the work to do a quick bit of googling to look up international form in the modern era then yes...the race has probably passed you by.
Yep, think you're right. It's the way of the modern world I guess, history and tradition don't seem to matter much anymore.
Curious though, in your opinion, is it a better race with all the internationals? And if so why? What's the difference between a bunch of Aussie horses running the track in 3:20ish and a bunch of overseas horses running the track in 3:20ish?
 

iluvparis

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Yep, think you're right. It's the way of the modern world I guess, history and tradition don't seem to matter much anymore.
Curious though, in your opinion, is it a better race with all the internationals? And if so why? What's the difference between a bunch of Aussie horses running the track in 3:20ish and a bunch of overseas horses running the track in 3:20ish?
It is absolutely a better race. We get a far higher quality of horse running now than we did in the 90s/early 000s when some of the fields are absolute garbage. Go and look at the replays from the 90s to see some of the ordinary cattle that was running in the top 5/6. We now get a number of high quality stayers in the race every year making it a great spectacle and even better/more even betting prospect. In the 80s/90s there were so many ordinary horses and so many who couldn't stay the trip that the winner in reality could be identified from a rare few in the market.

The time's argument is completely irrelevant - how many track records are actually held by decent horses? Very few.
 

HeathComeBack

Norm Smith Medallist
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The cup is a way better quality race now than it used to be, but the beauty of it has always been the hardest race to win. Back in the day there used to be 500 to 600 entries when noms were first taken,..Thats insane when you think about it, Nowdays if only Australians and Kiwis were allowed to be entered you would struggle to get 200 bred stayers let alone ones that have any sort of quality.
Is it a better race? Not sure.... the romance of a hack winning is pretty much gone (POP excepted). small fun
As far as a betting race? i dont like it at all so just have small fun bets nowdays. (especially after Admire Rakti RIP) There are just too many unkown factors to be totally confident.
 

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