Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)

[iluvparis]

Yep, think you're right. It's the way of the modern world I guess, history and tradition don't seem to matter much anymore.
Curious though, in your opinion, is it a better race with all the internationals? And if so why? What's the difference between a bunch of Aussie horses running the track in 3:20ish and a bunch of overseas horses running the track in 3:20ish?

It is absolutely a better race. We get a far higher quality of horse running now than we did in the 90s/early 000s when some of the fields are absolute garbage. Go and look at the replays from the 90s to see some of the ordinary cattle that was running in the top 5/6. We now get a number of high quality stayers in the race every year making it a great spectacle and even better/more even betting prospect. In the 80s/90s there were so many ordinary horses and so many who couldn't stay the trip that the winner in reality could be identified from a rare few in the market.

The time's argument is completely irrelevant - how many track records are actually held by decent horses? Very few.

 

[HeathySure]

The cup is a way better quality race now than it used to be, but the beauty of it has always been the hardest race to win. Back in the day there used to be 500 to 600 entries when noms were first taken,..Thats insane when you think about it, Nowdays if only Australians and Kiwis were allowed to be entered you would struggle to get 200 bred stayers let alone ones that have any sort of quality.
Is it a better race? Not sure.... the romance of a hack winning is pretty much gone (POP excepted). small fun
As far as a betting race? i dont like it at all so just have small fun bets nowdays. (especially after Admire Rakti RIP) There are just too many unkown factors to be totally confident.

 

[iluvparis]

The people that think there are too many unknown factors are those that are too lazy to do the form properly. It has never been easier for a punter to do the form than it is now.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Too much dead money around not to bet.

 

[chunkylover]

After a long drought since saintly's win I seem to be having a good run this decade. Its many factors but the main one is being able to cross off more horses from the 24 and the ease of finding form for the horses from the northern hemisphere these days. Also knowing the good info here from the rubbish helps.

 

[FallingLiefs]

i would have thought this board would have nailed Rekindling/Almandin. Cross Counter was many people second pick and at $12-$15 on the tote most the day i would suspect most would have had at least something on him. PoP... well.... too much wrong with that cup. previously though Protectionist and Fiorente were favorites or for some of the day.

i don't think you can argue it's been "too hard". the market has found almost all of them in top 3.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Trakkus has CC running 13.32 L200, apparently correct time 11.78 and fastest last 200 of entire meet after 2 mile. to win from last on that tempo quite absurd, could have put panels on them if actually suited.

 

[iluvparis]

Trakkus has CC running 13.32 L200, apparently correct time 11.78 and fastest last 200 of entire meet after 2 mile. to win from last on that tempo quite absurd, could have put panels on them if actually suited.

Yeah when I went back and watched replay it is truly redic win. Was watching Yucatan in running - then Rostro and saw Marmelo poke through so only picked up CC at the 300 and was fairly confident he'd run him down from there.

Had I watched it the whole way around I'd have been tearing my ticket up!

 

[Deliverance]

It is absolutely a better race. We get a far higher quality of horse running now than we did in the 90s/early 000s when some of the fields are absolute garbage. Go and look at the replays from the 90s to see some of the ordinary cattle that was running in the top 5/6. We now get a number of high quality stayers in the race every year making it a great spectacle and even better/more even betting prospect. In the 80s/90s there were so many ordinary horses and so many who couldn't stay the trip that the winner in reality could be identified from a rare few in the market.

The time's argument is completely irrelevant - how many track records are actually held by decent horses? Very few.

Yeah, dunno man. You're seeing something there that I'm not. From a viewing spectacle, the race is basically the same running pattern 80s, 90s or 2000s. Bunch start, strung out past the post the first time, bunch up a bit around the first turn, string out again up the back straight, bunch up at about the 600m mark, then the field is spread 70+ lengths by the time the race finishes, with plenty of donkeys out the back that were never any chance. Personally, I don't believe the race is any better or worse to watch than 20-30 years ago.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah, dunno man. You're seeing something there that I'm not. From a viewing spectacle, the race is basically the same running pattern 80s, 90s or 2000s. Bunch start, strung out past the post the first time, bunch up a bit around the first turn, string out again up the back straight, bunch up at about the 600m mark, then the field is spread 70+ lengths by the time the race finishes, with plenty of donkeys out the back that were never any chance. Personally, I don't believe the race is any better or worse to watch than 20-30 years ago.

if that is your logic then no race is different from any other in the history of the sport

 

[HeathySure]

if I cannot follow a form pattern of recent runs I am not going to bet. You got horses coming from Japan, Ireland Germany England Australia lol etc, some haven't raced for a long time, some have had setbacks at Werribee (thats what put my off Cross counter). A lot havent raced against each other, i have no idea about the class of what the horses are running against when i see replays. You can all say its easy to win but 3 years ago Prince of Penzance won so yeah... this is not for me.
Plenty of races at Warnambool/Echuca/Sunshine Coast etc where its much easier to bet!
but as a horse racing lover i look forward to the Cup more than the Grand Final every year!

 

[iluvparis]

Maybe think outside the box a bit - not having raced in a long time means absolutely zero to overseas trainer. It is just our battlers that need to run them in 30 1400m WFA races to make sure its ready for a 2 mile handicap 3 months away.

 

[HeathySure]

Maybe think outside the box a bit - not having raced in a long time means absolutely zero to overseas trainer. It is just our battlers that need to run them in 30 1400m WFA races to make sure its ready for a 2 mile handicap 3 months away.

i agree but its just not for me. I dont know them, i dont follow overseas racing so i just don't know. I see just as many fail as they run well so its just going to be a novelty race for me. I did back Rekindling last year but i did my usual double from the previous race into a few roughies with a chance in the cup thing that i always do. Red Cadeauxs first year the doubles would have paid for bets for the next 100 years if it got up. but oh well.. i am still sure it won!!

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Took my top 9 for 2nd and 3rd in the Trif. Had Marmelo 10th. I’m sure the same thing happened last year with max dynamite.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The unders argument based off the fixed odds was why I went around it for the win this year

For those that like back fitting data for shits n gigs I decided to add the dosage indicators to my spreadsheet.

The top 6 in racebook order - Magic Circle, Marmelo, Yucatan, Finche, A Prince of Arran, Cross Counter.

Solid year for the DI

First year I can remember that Sportsman didn’t publish the figures.

 

[Ron The Bear]

I heard this on the radio and tend to agree...

The Australian Open is an international competition as is the Melbourne cup.

Imagine if we didnt allow internationals in the Oz Open it would be a joke of a comp as would the Melb Cup if 24 Oz horses ran.

Build it up even more overseas i reckon.

If an Aussie horse is good enough one day it'll be a better win.

New Zealand used to supply a lot of the quality, but their racing has gone to s**t. The internationals have essentially taken the role of the Kiwis.

 

[Chism]

New Zealand used to supply a lot of the quality, but their racing has gone to s**t. The internationals have essentially taken the role of the Kiwis.

Agree and anything that shows promise is brought straight over here or either sold to Australian interests.

 

[Deliverance]

if that is your logic then no race is different from any other in the history of the sport

I guess there are subtle differences between races. Some with finishes like this year or 1987, which go down wire a bit more than others like 2014. I just don't buy in to the argument that the race is better than it was 20 or 30 years ago, because i dont see anything so much better from either an aesthetic POV or a numerical POV.

 

[GreyCrow]

Nowdays if only Australians and Kiwis were allowed to be entered you would struggle to get 200 bred stayers let alone ones that have any sort of quality.

Tomato tomahto? Ive heard this argument and I have no great issue but I also think if it stayed Aussie/Kiwi that more stayers would get bred here. Or bought here a lot earlier. I have no basis for this but human behaviour patterns

 

[iluvparis]

I guess there are subtle differences between races. Some with finishes like this year or 1987, which go down wire a bit more than others like 2014. I just don't buy in to the argument that the race is better than it was 20 or 30 years ago, because i dont see anything so much better from either an aesthetic POV or a numerical POV.

How do you numerically rate recent winners to those of the past?

 

[HeathySure]

Tomato tomahto? Ive heard this argument and I have no great issue but I also think if it stayed Aussie/Kiwi that more stayers would get bred here. Or bought here a lot earlier. I have no basis for this but human behaviour patterns

Unfortunately the human behavior patterns are lets make as much money as possible as quick as possible. The breeding industry is the classic example of this. At the moment its lets make any old race a group 1, win a crappy group 1, retire straight away, get syndicated for squillions. make all the money in 3 years no matter how bad a sire it ends up, move onto the next squib , repeat.
There is no interest in breeding stayers, just making money (which is fair enough but its a huge Ponzi scheme), Next recession the industry will collapse and then god help the racing industry