Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)

[TBellicious]

1.5kg penalty in both Cups for Avi

HArsh!!

 

[FallingLiefs]

Yeah that’s a penalty for his SP and previous runs more than performance surely.

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah that’s a penalty for his SP and previous runs more than performance surely.

That's a good question actually - once the handicapper can re-handicap a horse can he only do it off the form of that one race? Or can he do it of ALL form between when the weights were allocated and the time he gets another crack.

I honestly don't know bet press release tends to suggest its the latter as it refers to the Kingston Town win also.

 

[Jugada]

Didnt like him anyway but can put a line well and truly through it at 54.5kg now

Agree that's a rather harsh penalty given his wins here and what they have been up against

 

[Duritz]

He only held his Sydney figure on my ratings. Needs a lot better than that to be a chance in the cups. Probably 3L improvement required and maybe more. In protectionists year he’d need to find about 5L. Maybe more.

 

[TBellicious]

He only held his Sydney figure on my ratings. Needs a lot better than that to be a chance in the cups. Probably 3L improvement required and maybe more. In protectionists year he’d need to find about 5L. Maybe more.

Don’t bring that up !

 

[iluvparis]

He only held his Sydney figure on my ratings. Needs a lot better than that to be a chance in the cups. Probably 3L improvement required and maybe more. In protectionists year he’d need to find about 5L. Maybe more.

 

[Mobythepom]

Next up taking a look at the two horses bringing the French form into the Cup

Avilius - 53kg
Finche - 54kg

Recent Races:

Avilius (Bart Cummings)


Had to carry 58.5kg but was only taking on the "local" second tier stayers. If it was going to be a top half dozen chance i would have wanted to see it let down and win by 2-3 instead of getting the staggers and laying in the last 150m. He will drop 5.5kg for the Cup but... yeah... the form isn't strong and he looks pretty suspect at the trip to me.

Avilius (Prix Dollar)


This was his last race in France before heading to Australia. Went shite as a $3.50 favourite. Not much else to say really.

Finche (Prix De Reux)


Not the strongest field and only 6 runners but he led them all the way over 2500m and was strong on the line. Tiberian finishes 2nd but he isn't half the horse he was last year.

Finche (Prix Ganay)


He goes around at 20-1 and runs 5th of seven but it wasn't a terrible run for mine. Cracksman gaps them obviously but he was only a couple lengths off Cloth Of Stars who just ran 3rd in the Arc and Rhododendrum was going really well at the time.

Avilius & Finche (Prix Niel)


Got to go back 12 months to when they both met here and it was just a field of 5 but there was a fairly decent one in it called Cracksman. Avilius went around at 7-1 and finished 2nd to Cracksman, with Finche running 3rd at 4-1 but for mine this was just another example of Avilius looking very suspect of getting 2 miles. He got the perfect sit on Cracksman's back all race and moved into a clear 2nd looking to challenge in the straight and had to have gone 3 lengths clear of Finche who had led the race, but he just started to fold up the last 150m with Finche coming back and making solid ground on him at the end and finishing much stronger.


Thoughts:

I have very little between them in France. They are both lightly raced 4yos on a similar trajectory and they have beaten home one another on seperate occasions over there. The market had them pretty close together on each occasion as well which should be a good pointer.

Avilius probably needs to be given a slight mark up because its actually in the race while Finche is about 42 in the OOE (plus its here and in form) but being one of the favourites at a fifth of the odds is laughably short. There shouldn't be that much of a gap in the odds.

Question marks on both of them at the 2 miles too but especially with Avilius given it has staggered the last 100m both times its stepped up over a mile and a half. Breeding doesn't fill me with any confidence either being by Pivotal - which im fairly sure is known as a speed sire? Someone correct me if im wrong there. Finche's breeding looks a lot better being by Frankel so at least he has Galileo lines.

Anyone have any thoughts on the French runners?

Good read, cheers. Yeah agree with the stamina issue for Avilius. DI 2.45 and CD 0.61 rings massive alarm bells for getting 2 miles and it's track performances echo that. The 1.5kg penalty on top makes this a very poor value market leader for me.

Finche has DI 0.84 and CD 0.09 so on breeding is much better equipped for 2 miles especially one with a likely strong pace.

 

[iluvparis]

Finche has DI 0.84 and CD 0.09 so on breeding is much better equipped for 2 miles especially one with a likely strong pace.

What's this based on? Half the time its run at a moderate tempo at best!

 

[Mobythepom]

What's this based on? Half the time its run at a moderate tempo at best!

Agree but in terms of the sort of French races they have been running in I think there's more likelihood of a proper test of stamina in the Cup. Yeah we could get a Prince of Penzance year but we could also get a real extreme test (Protectionist ). Given the 24 runners it's more likely you'll be tested here than in French races I'd say.

 

[rideclutch]

Great stuff Jug, takes a lot of time to post that sort of stuff. Will hopefully find a spare 5 mins this week and add to the chat.

Presumably there'll be a dedicated #lloyd post where we can nut all over his runners. I was gonna say "and then pick the wrong one" but we've been pretty good with his I reckon. Almandin was a big, big Punting Board tip and lots were keen on Rekindling last year too.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

What's this based on? Half the time its run at a moderate tempo at best!

Lloyd will use a pacemaker every year from now on because he knows he can get away with it.

Jockey just says, couldn’t control the horse.

Scott free.

 

[Jugada]

Bit of a rundown on the German runner Sound Check

Sound Check - 55.5kg

Recent Races

Altano-Rennen


Resumed in April in the Altano-Rennen over 2800m as a $3.60 favourite and won convincingly. Form out of the race is nothing special and is sub par even for German standards so i wouldn't be putting too much weight behind the win

Oleander-Rennen


Another step up in grade here. Wasn't first past the post here but was awarded the race on protest as a $2.10 favourite. Again its not taking on the most impressive quality of field but its still a nice performance over 3200m. The 2nd horse Nearly Caught is a reasonable measuring stick and he is pretty limited so i wouldnt be knocking people down to back it off that run.

Red Cardinal came through winning this race last year.

Von Lotto


A quick freshen up and dropped back from 3200m to 2000m. Not a bad effort under the circumstances.

GP von Berlin


This is quite clearly his best performance and it came in his last run before coming to Melbourne. It's a pretty strong race and the winner Best Solution is a good quality mile and a half horse who he will meet 2kgs better off at the weights in the Cup.


Thoughts:

A really tough one for me to work out. The German form outside his last start is pretty mediocre but he has won over 2 miles and has shown a turn of foot over the mile and a half so has things going for him. He brings in stronger German form than Protectionist though and we know how that went.

The prep is a bit of a mess. Resumes over 2800m, then goes to 3200m, then drops back to 2000m and back up to 2400m.

He definitely hasn't beaten the handicapper. Getting 55.5kg absolutely maxes him out ability wise. I think his German form is comparable to Red Cardinal from last year who got a similar weight i guess.

He is one i could include in wider exotics and have a small bet on if you could get 40-1 to one on the day. There are definitely worse bets but too much guess work for him to be on my first line of picks.

 

[iluvparis]

German racing is where the absolute D graders of Europe go to boost their black type status - not even considering him. I'd be stunned if he was good enough to win carrying 55.5. Had similar thoughts re: Red Cardinal last year so see no need to change my view.

He might have better German form than Protectionist but the latter at least went to France and won the Kergolay before coming here.

A firm pass.

 

[plays tall 1]

Sound Check is hard to line up, except for his run against Best Solution (which was full of merit). Best Solution has beaten Muntahaa (4l) and Duretto (3/4l) at level weights. Best Solution beat Sound Check by a nose at level weights. Obviously punting isn’t simple arithmetic, but this is the best comparison available and it suggests Sound Check will be highly competitive.

He meets Best Solution 2kg better, carries the same weight as Muntahaa and gives Duretto a kilo. And we’ll have a very compressed weight scale this year. It looks to me as if very few will be carrying 53 or less this year (except NH 3year olds).

He handles good ground. Looks to have a decent turn of foot. Looks much more likely to get 2 miles than Best Solution.

The Moroney syndicate wasn’t the only Australian one after him...

 

[iluvparis]

If we are going off single run form analysis I'll go for not being able to finish ahead of Nearly Caught at his only 2 mile attempt - a fully exposed one paced grinder who having form around has generally proven not good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

Racing Post also had the Best Solution race as Best Solution's worst European performance this season compared to Sound Check's best so I think its drawing a pretty long bow to base all relative form lines off that particular event.

 

[iluvparis]

Avdulla booked for La Trobe. That’s a negative for mine

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Sound Check is hard to line up, except for his run against Best Solution (which was full of merit). Best Solution has beaten Muntahaa (4l) and Duretto (3/4l) at level weights. Best Solution beat Sound Check by a nose at level weights. Obviously punting isn’t simple arithmetic, but this is the best comparison available and it suggests Sound Check will be highly competitive.

He meets Best Solution 2kg better, carries the same weight as Muntahaa and gives Duretto a kilo. And we’ll have a very compressed weight scale this year. It looks to me as if very few will be carrying 53 or less this year (except NH 3year olds).

He handles good ground. Looks to have a decent turn of foot. Looks much more likely to get 2 miles than Best Solution.

The Moroney syndicate wasn’t the only Australian one after him...

This is the form line I have followed and have him on top at present. I take iluvparis concerns as valid but he seems to dismiss all German form to the point if Winx had German form she would be a D grader. I have taken a treble Winx 1.20 in Turnbull x Hasabro 201/1 Derby (now 26/1) and Sound Check 26/1 by $5 for a collect of $31,356 on TAB. Oh well at least I have got the hard leg in .

 

[Jugada]

Avdulla booked for La Trobe. That’s a negative for mine

At least it looks like he is definitely coming now so ill take it

 

[iluvparis]

This is the form line I have followed and have him on top at present. I take iluvparis concerns as valid but he seems to dismiss all German form to the point if Winx had German form she would be a D grader. I have taken a treble Winx 1.20 in Turnbull x Hasabro 201/1 Derby (now 26/1) and Sound Check 26/1 by $5 for a collect of $31,356 on TAB. Oh well at least I have got the hard leg in .

I dismiss the form not because it is German but because it generally never stacks up. I doubt there would be many in Europe who would be suggesting the KEY lead up for a top race is a German event where the first 4 or 5 finished in a bunch over the line and the winner looks to have run below his best.

Add to that on all exposed form he has a good horses weight and he is going to have to improve at least a couple of lengths to win. Is Moroney going to be able to do that? I wouldn't be putting any money down to say he can.

 

[Jugada]

Time to take a look at a punting board favourite from the Williams camp...


Latrobe - 52kg


Recent Races:


Irish Derby


A few guys here had earmarked him as a Melbourne Cup horse prior to this win but this was really the race that made him a serious Cup prospect. He went around at 14-1 and was too strong up the straight after sitting outside the leader.

Form out of the race is very strong as well beating home Saxon Warrior. That 3yo European form is extremely good this year.

Juddmonte International


He finished 7th of 8 and was 10 lengths by the winner but the depth of the race was extremely strong so im not that disappointed with the effort. Roaring Lion, Saxon Warrior and Poet's Word are some of the best 2000m horses in the world at the moment.

Had to sit outside the leader and just couldn't go with them when they sprinted but that wasn't really any surprise given he was coming back from the mile and a half to a quality 2000m race.

Irish St Leger


Step back up to 2800m and another nice performance in the St Leger. Sat in behind them and made his move in the straight but just couldn't reel in the leader Flag Of Honour which is a very nice horse as well.


Thoughts:

Definitely amongst the top 3 chances heading into the race and personally i have him rated on top. I do have reasonable money riding on him from pre post betting so might be a bit biased in wanting him to win but his formlines are very strong, he gets in extremely well at the weights for an Irish Derby winner and all signs point to him coming now as Joseph O'Brien has been rapt with the progress he has made since the St Leger and they have booked Avdulla for the ride.

Might be a slight query on the 2 miles as he looks more like a mile and a half horse but if you can run 2nd at the Curragh in the St Leger you should have no issues with the 2 miles at Flemington.

 

[TBellicious]

Time to take a look at a punting board favourite from the Williams camp...


Latrobe - 52kg


Recent Races:


Irish Derby


A few guys here had earmarked him as a Melbourne Cup horse prior to this win but this was really the race that made him a serious Cup prospect. He went around at 14-1 and was too strong up the straight after sitting outside the leader.

Form out of the race is very strong as well beating home Saxon Warrior. That 3yo European form is extremely good this year.

Juddmonte International


He finished 7th of 8 and was 10 lengths by the winner but the depth of the race was extremely strong so im not that disappointed with the effort. Roaring Lion, Saxon Warrior and Poet's Word are some of the best 2000m horses in the world at the moment.

Had to sit outside the leader and just couldn't go with them when they sprinted but that wasn't really any surprise given he was coming back from the mile and a half to a quality 2000m race.

Irish St Leger


Step back up to 2800m and another nice performance in the St Leger. Sat in behind them and made his move in the straight but just couldn't reel in the leader Flag Of Honour which is a very nice horse as well.


Thoughts:

Definitely amongst the top 3 chances heading into the race and personally i have him rated on top. I do have reasonable money riding on him from pre post betting so might be a bit biased in wanting him to win but his formlines are very strong, he gets in extremely well at the weights for an Irish Derby winner and all signs point to him coming now as Joseph O'Brien has been rapt with the progress he has made since the St Leger and they have booked Avdulla for the ride.

Might be a slight query on the 2 miles as he looks more like a mile and a half horse but if you can run 2nd at the Curragh in the St Leger you should have no issues with the 2 miles at Flemington.

Give him strength

 

[TBellicious]

Jeeezus just seen Latrobe is equal second favourite at $13!
I can imagine that all those on him in here have at least 30s
My goodness ....

 

[FFB1]

$4 chance out to $13 with Abdulla on board.

 

[iluvparis]

Hate the jokey booking - love everything else. Better version of last years winner. God speed