Racing Melbourne Cup 2019

Viva la Mattner

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With not long now until first nominations come out
Discuss any early thoughts and pre-nom and before classed as “all in” bets you may have


Talking points:
Irish Guineas just ran, Will the winner or placegetters head over?

Latrobe was a knife in the guts for the punting board with its omission last year

Will they cop the weight and send Stradivarius?

Steel Prince and Suprise Baby the early spruiked horses locally (have 0 chance IMO)

Which horse will win the Ebor and come over that Paris will say is poison unders 😂

I have 2 ante post bets placed months ago both throw at the stumps
Johannes Vermeer @ 41’s and Count Octave @ 100’s (was nom’d last year and raced against quality in Europe)

Have at it gents
Early thoughts?
HeathComeBack
iluvparis
balmainforever
banana_bus
FallingLiefs
come on oliver
puntking
king rising
Chism
TBellicious
bigpapagman
Tag Moby too
 
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iluvparis

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On the Ebor note - where is old mate Ebor fapper who literally hasn't posted since Mutacat was beaten out of sight last year before subsequently being flogged in every single Australian start :drunk:

Marmelo pretty plain again last night - can't see him repeating last years heroics even if he comes.
 

Viva la Mattner

Premiership Player
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On the Ebor note - where is old mate Ebor fapper who literally hasn't posted since Mutacat was beaten out of sight last year before subsequently being flogged in every single Australian start :drunk:

Marmelo pretty plain again last night - can't see him repeating last years heroics even if he comes.
Moby?
Looked up not active since Nov 6 2018
Wouldn’t let me tag him so maybe account gone?
You’ve gone and intimidated another one out Paris 😂 he’s gone the way of Seth.... now there was some quality melts Banana Bus would be proud of


Any early thoughts Paris?
 

iluvparis

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Any early thoughts Paris?
Nope - need to see what the European 3yos are doing later in the season to have any thoughts.

Moby did strike me as the guy that was all pre-race talk and happy to skunk away when he was proven to be terribly wrong.
 

Viva la Mattner

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Nope - need to see what the European 3yos are doing later in the season to have any thoughts.

Moby did strike me as the guy that was all pre-race talk and happy to skunk away when he was proven to be terribly wrong.
Mentioned I had a throw at the stumps on Count Octave at 100’s, how’d you rate it last year?? Bred impeccably and has/had form around Stradivarius

Purely went off numerous articles I’d read, your knowledge of UK form is better than mine
 

Viva la Mattner

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One thing I’ve told myself this after being sucked in too many times no bets based on Goodwood Cup form, please all feel free to remind me of this if talk any of them up....
 

iluvparis

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Mentioned I had a throw at the stumps on Count Octave at 100’s, how’d you rate it last year?? Bred impeccably and has/had form around Stradivarius

Purely went off numerous articles I’d read, your knowledge of UK form is better than mine
Way too slow.

Think I mentioned this when you brought it up in the 2018 thread but don't rate it. Think i said that how close it got to Strad at York looked a complete fluke job and its 3 runs before were average.

Might be one batting on for 4th-6th but won't have the turn of foot anywhere near good enough to win.
 

Viva la Mattner

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Way too slow.

Think I mentioned this when you brought it up in the 2018 thread but don't rate it. Think i said that how close it got to Strad at York looked a complete fluke job and its 3 runs before were average.

Might be one batting on for 4th-6th but won't have the turn of foot anywhere near good enough to win.
Actually reading through the 2018 thread at the moment (day off thanks to teachers strike here in SA) way to kill time on the couch!

fu** me what was I thinking I got royally f’ed in the arse by Magic Circle
 

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king rising

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I’m on the Dermot Weld trained Falcon Eight at 50/1. Progressive stayer who’s only had four career starts. Last time he beat home the likes of Capri and Master of Reality, while running second to Curragh Cup winner Twilight Payment, lumping 59 kgs. The form has been further franked through Master of Reality whom ran a mighty race in the Gold Cup at Ascot when pushing Stradivarius all the way to run third, in the process beating home last years MC winner Cross Counter. Weld has a history in the Cup of course, with Media Puzzle and Vintage Crop taking out the race. He profiles very well in that he’s a Northern Hemisphere 4 year old, he likes fast ground unlike many Europeans who come to Aus and he has a turn of foot. IF he gets into the field and Weld names this as his target I’ll be stoked. Happy to play at 50/1 antepost anyway
 
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bigdog43

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I’ve had two $5 bets on Verdana Blue and Jameeh. Not sure what happened to Jameeh last prep but took the 100’s.
 

iluvparis

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I’m on the Dermot Weld trained Falcon Eight at 50/1. Progressive stayer who’s only had four career starts. Last time he beat home the likes of Capri and Master of Reality, while running second to Curragh Cup winner Twilight Payment, lumping 59 kgs. The form has been further franked through Master of Reality whom ran a mighty race in the Gold Cup at Ascot when pushing Stradivarius all the way to run third, in the process beating home last years MC winner Cross Counter. Weld has a history in the Cup of course, with Media Puzzle and Vintage Crop taking out the race. He profiles very well in that he’s a Northern Hemisphere 4 year old, he likes fast ground unlike many Europeans who come to Aus and he has a turn of foot. IF he gets into the field and Weld names this as his target I’ll be stoked. Happy to play at 50/1 antepost anyway
Reckon your a decade too late - must be 50/1 to even come here - when did Weld last have a runner?

Capri looks gone at the game and I doubt MOR's Gold Cup run is evidence of his true form.

Also going to have to get that rating up to make the field. Would genuinely want 200/1+ about a horse this speculative this far out
 

plays tall 1

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Master of Reality has a rating of 118. Gets in no problem at all. Owned by Williams et al so that in itself suggests he’s more likely than not to be targeted at the Cup. Not sure he has a turn of foot though...
 

iluvparis

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Master of Reality has a rating of 118. Gets in no problem at all. Owned by Williams et al so that in itself suggests he’s more likely than not to be targeted at the Cup. Not sure he has a turn of foot though...
I was talking about Free Eight.

Master Of Reality couldn't win with 118 if it started now - that Gold Cup run has killed any chance he has of being competitive at Flemington.
 

plays tall 1

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Yep, Falcon Eight needs to lift his rating. Will be interesting to see where he runs next. Weld has stated that’s the horse he has in mind as a potential Melbourne Cup runner. He’s stayed away largely because of dissatisfaction with the track watering policy and a lack of horses suited to our conditions. They’ve eased that policy slightly now, but in any case Falcon Eight likes good ground.

Defoe is another who’s been mentioned and he’s back in form. But he’s won a group 1 since they expressed interest so may get too much weight.

Neufbosc had some nice French form last year until he stunk it up in the Arc. Now in Australia. If Avilius is a guide, he’ll be given a rating below what he’s entitled to but will probably need to win races to be a hope of getting in. May be better suited in the Caulfield Cup.
 

HeathComeBack

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The rules have changed for the NH 3yos. Benchmark weight going up 1kg with Carpenter also saying he may need to re-assess how he assesses that form too.
Carpenter is a dumbarse. He weights them so the overseas horses come. They will dominate until the Aussie stayers get rated properly. As for the 1kg penalty, its like a teacher hitting a schoolkid with a feather rather than the strap. i wouldnt worry about it
 
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