Racing Melbourne Cup 2019

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iluvparis

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Goodwood Cup tonight - https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/21/goodwood/2019-07-30/732947

Normally this produces the kind of grinder that will be too slow/one paced to win at Flemington - and most of those at the top of the market are too classy to come down under.

I'll be watching the brothers in arms SOUTH PACIFIC (unlisted betfair) and SOUTHERN FRANCE ($140 betfair) - no idea what the plans are but they strike me as a couple that Aiden could send down this year.

Also just happy to watch Strad go around and win again as always but a no bet race at the price.
 

iluvparis

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Crossed the line together but as expected completely flogged by the 3 class horses. Southern France looked to travel the best of the two in the run but you'd hardly be piling into them on the back of that.
 

plays tall 1

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Cross Counter may now be more likely to return. But at $15 it’s hard to get excited.

Wells Farhh Go had been mentioned as a possible Cup horse. Strange ride and well beaten. Can’t get too enthused about him.

Dashing Willoughby has also been mentioned as a Cup prospect. He looked pretty plain too.
 

iluvparis

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I reckon CC's two runs this European summer suggest he doesn't stay 3200 quite well enough over there. Both runs he has looked like he was just going to zoom past them but De Ex Bee has held him easily and run away from him in the last furlong twice now. I'd freshen him up and throw him in the Arc (not going to be good enough to win but could run a handy top 5).

He should be weighted out of the Cup down here this year if the handicapper is for real - dominant winner last year + reduction of weight allowance + proximity to Strad in recent runs - he'd have to be getting up towards 56.5/57 kgs now
 

FallingLiefs

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I reckon CC's two runs this European summer suggest he doesn't stay 3200 quite well enough over there. Both runs he has looked like he was just going to zoom past them but De Ex Bee has held him easily and run away from him in the last furlong twice now. I'd freshen him up and throw him in the Arc (not going to be good enough to win but could run a handy top 5).

He should be weighted out of the Cup down here this year if the handicapper is for real - dominant winner last year + reduction of weight allowance + proximity to Strad in recent runs - he'd have to be getting up towards 56.5/57 kgs now
would have to be top weight 58

name a better performed horse that will contest the race to get the minimum top weight?

besides he's already the peoples champ.
 

iluvparis

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would have to be top weight 58

name a better performed horse that will contest the race to get the minimum top weight?

besides he's already the peoples champ.
Yes tend to agree - was trying to think of another horse that would be top weight and couldn't come up with one.

If he wins with top weight from as far back as he settled last year he is some horse and would probably be doing it without me on.

I wonder if they'd have a throw at the Caulfield Cup instead? Has been a much better hunting ground for Melbourne Cup winners over the last decade.
 

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99 Problems

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Appleby pretty much confirmed he’ll be coming back. Clearly a very good horse but will be a massive weight swing. Would think his chances really depend on which untested new Europeans come down this year as even with the weight swing I’d fancy him against anything from last years field.

Still backing the Cup favourite 3 months before the race isn’t usually a successful strategy.
 

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Can’t see a natural topweight. Someone has to get 58kgs on release of weights (if the rules are the same this year). Those in the conversation look to be Torcedor, Cross Counter and Master of Reality.

There’s always the chance O’Brien or Godolphin may nominate a higher-rated horse that isn’t a serious chance and make it easy for Carps to keep folks happy (like Lancaster Bomber or Best Solution last year).
 

iluvparis

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Master Of Reality would be the worst opening topweight in the history of the race - surley Carps is not stupid enough to give him full value for his Gold Cup run of one 'spike' performance. If he races just once more in Europe I expect his OR to thud back to reality.
 

Viva la Mattner

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Nothing stands out from the Goodwood Cup
I told myself to ignore that form this year, been burnt too many times
Think Cross Counter cops a bigger weight and hampers his chances
 

HeathComeBack

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MAkybe Diva went 51 55.5 and 58 kgs and won races in between. She was thrown in every time

Cross Current has only had 2 runs since and not sure if he will run again until after weights are released? I would think he should get about 55.5 but who the **** knows
 

IKnowtheDog

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MAkybe Diva went 51 55.5 and 58 kgs and won races in between. She was thrown in every time

Cross Current has only had 2 runs since and not sure if he will run again until after weights are released? I would think he should get about 55.5 but who the **** knows
Prior to her 2003 Melbourne Cup win these were her feature race performances
2002 Werribee Cup First
2002 Queen Elizabeth First
wasn't placed in a black type race until the Melbourne Cup

can't say she was thrown in based on that

Quite a jump of 4.5 kgs in 2004 based on her Melbourne Cup & Sydney Cup wins probably a reasonable weight.

2005 could certainly argue for a higher weight.

Also if not for a bob of the head in 2004 Caulfield Cup she probably ends up being only a one time cup winner, two at best.
 

HeathComeBack

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Prior to her 2003 Melbourne Cup win these were her feature race performances
2002 Werribee Cup First
2002 Queen Elizabeth First
wasn't placed in a black type race until the Melbourne Cup

can't say she was thrown in based on that

Quite a jump of 4.5 kgs in 2004 based on her Melbourne Cup & Sydney Cup wins probably a reasonable weight.

2005 could certainly argue for a higher weight.

Also if not for a bob of the head in 2004 Caulfield Cup she probably ends up being only a one time cup winner, two at best.
Think Big went 53 to 58kgs without winning a race in between so yeah thrown in
 

IKnowtheDog

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Think Big went 53 to 58kgs without winning a race in between so yeah thrown in
You also need to factor in the weights of the other horses in reviewing the weight discrepancy. Considering mares are given a 2 kg allowance she was weighted higher than Think Big and defeated one of the top Irish Stayers of all time too (twice)
 

HeathComeBack

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You also need to factor in the weights of the other horses in reviewing the weight discrepancy. Considering mares are given a 2 kg allowance she was weighted higher than Think Big and defeated one of the top Irish Stayers of all time too (twice)
the 3rd time she was. not the 2nd time. She was thrown in!! and tracks watered for her too.
 
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