Racing Melbourne Cup 2019

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iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
27,205
19,177
AFL Club
Carlton
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Calgary Flames, Man Utd
“The profile” changes every year or few. It’s better to find the next profile than the last one.
Yes which is why I stated that this is a profile that hasn't worked so far and doesn't look like changing. Feel free to try and jump on it though :thumbsu:
 

IKnowtheDog

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 25, 2016
6,173
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Collingwood
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Seattle Seahawks
how condensed are pre post cup markets these days, plus difficulty in getting set for a decent collect too.

Nelson is one of my early picks
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,719
12,755
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Yes which is why I stated that this is a profile that hasn't worked so far and doesn't look like changing. Feel free to try and jump on it though :thumbsu:
worked fine the only time i did it with Fiorente. $9 for WFA form i guess there had to be some reason people were laying it.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,719
12,755
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Yes which is why I stated that this is a profile that hasn't worked so far and doesn't look like changing. Feel free to try and jump on it though :thumbsu:
feel free to post other MC starters with this profile.

once you post them at a less rate than 1/24 winners i will concede they have underperformed. I'm waiting.

and even then who's to say the right horse doesn't buck that trend within the next 3 years.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
11,719
12,755
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
further to this, to only point out the stupidity of profiling winners.

there is 1 winner from 24 starters(tabplz) so many horses run well but can be disregarded.

for instance the infamous "need to start here prior to the cup" profile was still going strong publicly in 2017 before consecutive winners.

going back further Heartbreak City, Max Dynamite, Red Cadeaux, Fiorente had run 2nd in the preceding years.


the only profile that counts and will always stand test of time is race day, well weighted, in form, right run, right conditions. the rest of antepost betting is speculating on improvement or speculating on them getting here.
 

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iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Apr 1, 2005
27,205
19,177
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
further to this, to only point out the stupidity of profiling winners.

there is 1 winner from 24 starters(tabplz) so many horses run well but can be disregarded.

for instance the infamous "need to start here prior to the cup" profile was still going strong publicly in 2017 before consecutive winners.

going back further Heartbreak City, Max Dynamite, Red Cadeaux, Fiorente had run 2nd in the preceding years.


the only profile that counts and will always stand test of time is race day, well weighted, in form, right run, right conditions. the rest of antepost betting is speculating on improvement or speculating on them getting here.
Profiling losers is even more important ;)

Not surprised that half the factors you came up with are only available in hindsight ;)
 
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