Racing Melbourne Cup 2019

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FFB1

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You rate it a winning chance?
$51 at Sportsbet
$31 Ladbrokes
$67 365, and 4 places (they prob let you on for $8 at that price based on previous experience.). I rate it a 1.5% winning chance ;)

I’m just pointing out that it’s qualified, it’s coming, it’ll have around 53kg now, bit more if runs top few in the Ebor, and if won’t be that price if it does (confident enough it does). Arb opportunity on the fair but seems that’s gone now.
 

Viva la Mattner

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$67 365, and 4 places (prob get $8 at that price..). I rate it a 1.5% winning chance ;)

I’m just pointing out that it’s qualified, it’s coming, it’ll have around 53kg now, bit more if runs top few in the Ebor, and if won’t be that price if it does (confident enough it does). Arb opportunity on the fair but seems that’s gone now.
Hmm
For a cup of coffee bet I’ll take some of the $51 then
 

iluvparis

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As previously stated - not sure why those wasting stakes antepost aren't just backing it in the Ebor - not like it is odds on there and it will be out the gate if it runs poorly.
 

FFB1

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As previously stated - not sure why those wasting stakes antepost aren't just backing it in the Ebor - not like it is odds on there and it will be out the gate if it runs poorly.
Is it wasting it if you back it antepost, sell off at half the price for green, and use that to back it in the Ebor?

Ridden dead last 2 to avoid Ebor weight is my take.

If I’m wrong so be it, haven’t lost. $26 TAB now.
 

FallingLiefs

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Is it wasting it if you back it antepost, sell off at half the price for green, and use that to back it in the Ebor?

Ridden dead last 2 to avoid Ebor weight is my take.

If I’m wrong so be it, haven’t lost. $26 TAB now.
i guess actually requires liquidity on the exchange though.

what are you going to do put $50 on sportsbet at 100:1, lay $100 at 50:1 on BF, pocket the $50 have have betfair hold your 5k for 10 weeks?

it's basically interest. and that's ignoring the stale prices board factor.
 

FFB1

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i guess actually requires liquidity on the exchange though.

what are you going to do put $50 on sportsbet at 100:1, lay $100 at 50:1 on BF, pocket the $50 have have betfair hold your 5k for 10 weeks?

it's basically interest. and that's ignoring the stale prices board factor.
I won’t go into too many details as I know you don’t like antepost punting ;) Edit: sorry thought that was old mate Paris responding.

But I think you’ll find there’s a bit matched at $100 and $80, and a bit matched at $46 and $50.

365 put up $67, with 4 places too. Still $51. #youknowyouwantto
 
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iluvparis

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Is it wasting it if you back it antepost, sell off at half the price for green, and use that to back it in the Ebor?

Ridden dead last 2 to avoid Ebor weight is my take.

If I’m wrong so be it, haven’t lost. $26 TAB now.
You never lose because you are the king of stale prices ;) the market move is entirely expected given the connections - they all start utter poison. And quoting TAB antepost prices as a reliable guide to anything - L O L

Horses being ridden dead is the desperate claim of the antepost punter #noexcuses
 
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iluvparis

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I actually flicked through there Betfair market today - there is pretty much zero I would be interested in outside Spanish Mission and Southern France (PSA I have no idea if either would even come) and there are PLENTY at absolute poison unders - including a few mentioned in this thread already.
 

FFB1

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I actually flicked through there Betfair market today - there is pretty much zero I would be interested in outside Spanish Mission and Southern France (PSA I have no idea if either would even come) and there are PLENTY at absolute poison unders - including a few mentioned in this thread already.
Agree. I doubt Southern France comes off last run, hopefully Spanish Mission does.
 

iluvparis

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Falcon Eight went absolutely awful against decent opposition last night. You couldn't touch it with borrowed money until you see it again.
 

FFB1

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Looking forward to seeing Raheen House tonight, if manages to win won’t be far off cup favourite; if runs top 3 won’t be far off it either.
 

iluvparis

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Looking forward to seeing Raheen House tonight, if manages to win won’t be far off cup favourite; if runs top 3 won’t be far off it either.
Posion poison posion

Have a look at how the Slowbor runners have been hammered on Betfair for the Cup already. Good old Moby must have been unloading his account :D

Raheen House shapes as a genuine 30/1 shot on the day and he is already under that today - shapes as being the lay of this years cup!
 

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