Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2019 (after the results posting of bets will get a ban)

[Viva la Mattner]

It ain’t going to Lees, staying with Haggis.

In b4 ‘yeah he’s got just as good a cups record’

You rate it a winning chance?
$51 at Sportsbet
$31 Ladbrokes

 

[FFB1]

You rate it a winning chance?
$51 at Sportsbet
$31 Ladbrokes

$67 365, and 4 places (they prob let you on for $8 at that price based on previous experience.). I rate it a 1.5% winning chance

I’m just pointing out that it’s qualified, it’s coming, it’ll have around 53kg now, bit more if runs top few in the Ebor, and if won’t be that price if it does (confident enough it does). Arb opportunity on the fair but seems that’s gone now.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

$67 365, and 4 places (prob get $8 at that price..). I rate it a 1.5% winning chance

I’m just pointing out that it’s qualified, it’s coming, it’ll have around 53kg now, bit more if runs top few in the Ebor, and if won’t be that price if it does (confident enough it does). Arb opportunity on the fair but seems that’s gone now.

Hmm
For a cup of coffee bet I’ll take some of the $51 then

 

[FFB1]

Hmm
For a cup of coffee bet I’ll take some of the $51 then

Could do worse, could have a cup of coffee bet on Torcedor.

 

[iluvparis]

As previously stated - not sure why those wasting stakes antepost aren't just backing it in the Ebor - not like it is odds on there and it will be out the gate if it runs poorly.

 

[iluvparis]

Sorry Liefsy meant stayers eg. Melb Cup hopeful

Protectorcat and Lucas Cranach the only two they have had any success with off the top of my head. And both you could have seen run in Australia first before making an investment decision.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

As previously stated - not sure why those wasting stakes antepost aren't just backing it in the Ebor - not like it is odds on there and it will be out the gate if it runs poorly.

if it runs well though? Won’t be $51 that’s for sure

 

[iluvparis]

if it runs well though? Won’t be $51 that’s for sure

Back it EW in the Ebor then. You also don't have your cash tied up for 3 months.

If it runs outside the placings it is hard to see it shortening - even with the associated Oz Bloodstock hype.

 

[FFB1]

As previously stated - not sure why those wasting stakes antepost aren't just backing it in the Ebor - not like it is odds on there and it will be out the gate if it runs poorly.

Is it wasting it if you back it antepost, sell off at half the price for green, and use that to back it in the Ebor?

Ridden dead last 2 to avoid Ebor weight is my take.

If I’m wrong so be it, haven’t lost. $26 TAB now.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Is it wasting it if you back it antepost, sell off at half the price for green, and use that to back it in the Ebor?

Ridden dead last 2 to avoid Ebor weight is my take.

If I’m wrong so be it, haven’t lost. $26 TAB now.

i guess actually requires liquidity on the exchange though.

what are you going to do put $50 on sportsbet at 100:1, lay $100 at 50:1 on BF, pocket the $50 have have betfair hold your 5k for 10 weeks?

it's basically interest. and that's ignoring the stale prices board factor.

 

[FFB1]

i guess actually requires liquidity on the exchange though.

what are you going to do put $50 on sportsbet at 100:1, lay $100 at 50:1 on BF, pocket the $50 have have betfair hold your 5k for 10 weeks?

it's basically interest. and that's ignoring the stale prices board factor.

I won’t go into too many details as I know you don’t like antepost punting Edit: sorry thought that was old mate Paris responding.

But I think you’ll find there’s a bit matched at $100 and $80, and a bit matched at $46 and $50.

365 put up $67, with 4 places too. Still $51. #youknowyouwantto

 

[iluvparis]

Is it wasting it if you back it antepost, sell off at half the price for green, and use that to back it in the Ebor?

Ridden dead last 2 to avoid Ebor weight is my take.

If I’m wrong so be it, haven’t lost. $26 TAB now.

You never lose because you are the king of stale prices the market move is entirely expected given the connections - they all start utter poison. And quoting TAB antepost prices as a reliable guide to anything - L O L

Horses being ridden dead is the desperate claim of the antepost punter #noexcuses

 

[FFB1]

You never lose because you are the king of stale prices the market move is entirely expected given the connections - they all start utter poison.

Horses being ridden dead is the desperate claim of the antepost punter #noexcuses

Cool, see how it pans out.

 

[iluvparis]

I actually flicked through there Betfair market today - there is pretty much zero I would be interested in outside Spanish Mission and Southern France (PSA I have no idea if either would even come) and there are PLENTY at absolute poison unders - including a few mentioned in this thread already.

 

[FFB1]

I actually flicked through there Betfair market today - there is pretty much zero I would be interested in outside Spanish Mission and Southern France (PSA I have no idea if either would even come) and there are PLENTY at absolute poison unders - including a few mentioned in this thread already.

Agree. I doubt Southern France comes off last run, hopefully Spanish Mission does.

 

[iluvparis]

Falcon Eight went absolutely awful against decent opposition last night. You couldn't touch it with borrowed money until you see it again.

 

[FFB1]

Falcon Eight went absolutely awful against decent opposition last night. You couldn't touch it with borrowed money until you see it again.

Very unlikely to come anyway, has a 2yo brain.

 

[FFB1]

Looking forward to seeing Raheen House tonight, if manages to win won’t be far off cup favourite; if runs top 3 won’t be far off it either.

 

[iluvparis]

Looking forward to seeing Raheen House tonight, if manages to win won’t be far off cup favourite; if runs top 3 won’t be far off it either.

Posion poison posion

Have a look at how the Slowbor runners have been hammered on Betfair for the Cup already. Good old Moby must have been unloading his account

Raheen House shapes as a genuine 30/1 shot on the day and he is already under that today - shapes as being the lay of this years cup!

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Posion poison posion

Have a look at how the Slowbor runners have been hammered on Betfair for the Cup already. Good old Moby must have been unloading his account

Raheen House shapes as a genuine 30/1 shot on the day and he is already under that today - shapes as being the lay of this years cup!

If it wins easy with plenty in the tank still after showing a turn of foot we still dismissing it?

 

[iluvparis]

If it wins easy with plenty in the tank still after showing a turn of foot we still dismissing it?

You mean like Muntacat last year?

Yes

 

[Viva la Mattner]

You mean like Muntacat last year?

Yes

I’ve had a dip at $51
You’re right re: Moby would have blown his load by now
At this stage there isn’t much else international wise

Spanish Mission - If it comes a huge chance

Cross Counter- good enough as we know

Withold - L O L #northumberland plate
(Well aware it is in the Ebor)

Torcedor - too slow

Count Octave - on at 100’s but prob too slow

Falcon Eight- too immature at this stage

Lloyd Williams crew... Johannes Vermeer? Flag of Honour?

 

[iluvparis]

If you are on at 50:1 it will still be a good arb because of the Oz bloodstock hype once it gets here

 

[FFB1]

I’ve had a dip at $51
You’re right re: Moby would have blown his load by now
At this stage there isn’t much else international wise

Spanish Mission - If it comes a huge chance

Cross Counter- good enough as we know

Withold - L O L #northumberland plate
(Well aware it is in the Ebor)

Torcedor - too slow

Count Octave - on at 100’s but prob too slow

Falcon Eight- too immature at this stage

Lloyd Williams crew... Johannes Vermeer? Flag of Honour?

Spanish won’t come.
C Counter will get too much weight.
Falcon Eight $501 to be here.
JV broken down, from what I’ve heard. Yucatán their cup hope.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Spanish won’t come.
C Counter will get too much weight.
Falcon Eight $501 to be here.
JV broken down, from what I’ve heard. Yucatán their cup hope.

No chance Flag of Honor?

Where’s Spanish headed you think?

Yucatan is an interesting one do they do the same path.. via Bart Cummings from memory?