Racing Melbourne Cup Day 2019 (after the results posting of bets will get a ban)

[iluvparis]

Off topic Paris, who’s the Aga Khan got floating around at the moment? After Verema () hasn’t made an appearance
Would like to see him back along with

Nothing anywhere near it from a Cups perspective as far as I'm aware of - most race in France or Ireland which I don't follow as much as UK.

 

[Mobythepom]

Thoughts on below runners?

Mustajeer
Raheen House
Twilight Payment
Raymond Tusk

Obviously it's hard to be too dogmatic until we know how they are assessed in the handicap but here's my current thoughts fwiw....

Mustajeer: Worth noting that the prize money shot up this year to make it the first £1m Ebor and it was the strongest renewal to date based on ratings so you have to take the form seriously. Unlike last year's winner this one would have a little more versatility ground wise. The performance was a clear PB and shows his aptitude for big field handicaps run at pace (track record). Not necessarily relevant though as the pace is often less even in the MC. On the flipside, as a 6yo who has just shown his hand in the race that was it's seasonal target you have to wonder if it will be too highly weighted in the MC and also wonder if the race is a bit of an afterthought. It's not a prolific winner with 4 wins from 19 but those four wins have come in Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov so the timing of the race may not be such a problem even though it may not have been targeted prior to the Ebor.

Raheen House: Real stamina doubt for me. On the two times it has run over further than 1m 6f (the Leger and the Sagaro) it has weakened markedly.
I know that the best European 2m horses are often too slow for the MC but this isn't a horse that finishes it's races strongly. The fast pace of the Ebor again seemed to expose it's limitations - I was surprised that the owner seemed so happy with the run. The change of stable to William Haggas could have made it into a bit of a hype horse, evidenced by it going off 5-1 fav for the Ebor. No obvious excuses in that race, and not for me. Going to need to pick up some more weight to get a run you'd imagine.

Twilight Payment: Usually ridden very prominently, and an interesting switch of stables in June to JPOB yard. Doesn't seem ground dependent and has won it's last two races. Has an entry in next week's Irish Leger so we will know more after that. It's been running in a lot of slowly run small field races without much joy until an apparent upturn in form in it's last two victories. If the new yard can squeeze a little improvement out of him he has his chance but I'm not sure his run style is an ideal fit for the MC and he could just lack a little tactical speed.

Raymond Tusk: Only had 12 races to date so there could well be some upside to his profile. Nice run when 4th in the Ebor (2 lengths behind the winner) when very strong at the line after meeting trouble in running twice in the run to the line. It had been dropped in from a very wide draw and travelled very well.
"Only" 5 lengths behind Crystal Ocean when giving that horse 2lbs earlier in the season and racing too keenly, he does have a little class about him but whether he's really good enough would be my concern. Taking a runner down for the race would be a new experience for connections which isn't ideal. There also has to be some doubt about whether he will be weighted to get in without a penalty.

 

[iluvparis]

Obviously it's hard to be too dogmatic until we know how they are assessed in the handicap but here's my current thoughts fwiw....

Mustajeer: Worth noting that the prize money shot up this year to make it the first £1m Ebor and it was the strongest renewal to date based on ratings so you have to take the form seriously. Unlike last year's winner this one would have a little more versatility ground wise. The performance was a clear PB and shows his aptitude for big field handicaps run at pace (track record). Not necessarily relevant though as the pace is often less even in the MC. On the flipside, as a 6yo who has just shown his hand in the race that was it's seasonal target you have to wonder if it will be too highly weighted in the MC and also wonder if the race is a bit of an afterthought. It's not a prolific winner with 4 wins from 19 but those four wins have come in Aug, Sep, Oct and Nov so the timing of the race may not be such a problem even though it may not have been targeted prior to the Ebor.

Raheen House: Real stamina doubt for me. On the two times it has run over further than 1m 6f (the Leger and the Sagaro) it has weakened markedly.
I know that the best European 2m horses are often too slow for the MC but this isn't a horse that finishes it's races strongly. The fast pace of the Ebor again seemed to expose it's limitations - I was surprised that the owner seemed so happy with the run. The change of stable to William Haggas could have made it into a bit of a hype horse, evidenced by it going off 5-1 fav for the Ebor. No obvious excuses in that race, and not for me. Going to need to pick up some more weight to get a run you'd imagine.

Twilight Payment: Usually ridden very prominently, and an interesting switch of stables in June to JPOB yard. Doesn't seem ground dependent and has won it's last two races. Has an entry in next week's Irish Leger so we will know more after that. It's been running in a lot of slowly run small field races without much joy until an apparent upturn in form in it's last two victories. If the new yard can squeeze a little improvement out of him he has his chance but I'm not sure his run style is an ideal fit for the MC and he could just lack a little tactical speed.

Raymond Tusk: Only had 12 races to date so there could well be some upside to his profile. Nice run when 4th in the Ebor (2 lengths behind the winner) when very strong at the line after meeting trouble in running twice in the run to the line. It had been dropped in from a very wide draw and travelled very well.
"Only" 5 lengths behind Crystal Ocean when giving that horse 2lbs earlier in the season and racing too keenly, he does have a little class about him but whether he's really good enough would be my concern. Taking a runner down for the race would be a new experience for connections which isn't ideal. There also has to be some doubt about whether he will be weighted to get in without a penalty.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH

Never change Mobs

Timeform rated this years winner well inferior to Muntacat's dominant win last year and we saw how well that form has measured up.

 

[Mobythepom]

Further point to add re Raymond Tusk - also has an entry in the Irish St Leger.

 

[thetradesman]

Ispolini looks the best of the raiders.

Still think Surprise Baby can win the Cup if it gets a run.

 

[00Stinger]

Mustajeer is going to be the horse to watch imo

 

[iluvparis]

Mustajeer is going to be the horse to watch imo

yeah nah - #slowbor form and already poison unders

 

[thetradesman]

I want it to win just to see the reaction of the board.

 

[iluvparis]

I want it to win just to see the reaction of the board.

See 2015 Melbourne Cup thread

 

[iluvparis]

Weights here -

Racing Australia | Horse Racing Results

Racing Australia is the national industry body representing Thoroughbred racing in Australia. Australian Horse Racing results, Horse Racing Materials.

racingaustralia.horse

Happy to say Mustajeer has absolutely none with that weight -55kg is a good horses weight and as a 6yo handicapper he certainly is not that. Glad to see Ollie booked to ride as well. Just like last year when he rode an Australian Bloodstock no hoper this thing is going to come up absolute poison on the tote.

Southern France also seems super harshly treated with 55.5 and I am more than likely going to be happy to risk Cross Counter jumping to 57.5 - he can't possibly beat Marmelo home again with a 6.5 kg weight turn around.

The only horse that jumped out at me on initial weights is CONSTANTINOPLE with 52.5 but you have to risk Hayes not slaughtering him before the big day.

 

[Mobythepom]

Marmelo would be my fancy from the UK horses at the moment. Hard to get involved with many of the Irish horses at this stage until plans are clearer. The UK handicapper would have Cross Counter giving Marmelo 2kg at home.

 

[iluvparis]

Marmelo would be my fancy from the UK horses at the moment. Hard to get involved with many of the Irish horses at this stage until plans are clearer. The UK handicapper would have Cross Counter giving Marmelo 2kg at home.

Suggests they won’t be good enough this year if Marmelo is your top pick given he has already tried and failed twice.

 

[Mobythepom]

Could very well be something better in the Irish horses but not keen to get involved yet. Will probably take a little of the 20/1 on Marmelo each way and then sit tight for while. A few clues from Sunday's Irish Leger possibly.....but as you say not much jumping out at the weights at the moment for me either.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

What’s the latest with Johannes Vermeer and Latrobe?
If these 2 enter and are good to go should beat up on most other international noms

 

[HeathySure]

#backonthejapanesebandwagon

 

[iluvparis]

#backonthejapanesebandwagon

Also known as the 'how to light you money directly on fire' strategy for the last decade

If you want to back a Japanese horse I'd be looking to Moonee Valley

 

[iluvparis]

Surprise Baby going straight to the Bart Cummings

 

[Boomtime]

Douglas MacArthur into $80 on bf... tradded as high as 1000-1 a few weeks ago

 

[FFB1]

What’s the latest with Johannes Vermeer and Latrobe?
If these 2 enter and are good to go should beat up on most other international noms

Mail I got a few weeks ago (24 Aug to be exact) is JV broke down, won’t race again. I’ve mentioned it before in this thread.

 

[FFB1]

Can rule out quite a few up the OOE but also a few in the market gonna find it hard to get a run.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Good to see Paris is here, setting fire to every post...

 

[iluvparis]

Good to see Paris is here, setting fire to every post...

I am the Don Chipp of the Melbourne Cup thread

 

[onthehill24]

Can rule out quite a few up the OOE but also a few in the market gonna find it hard to get a run.

who is doubtful from top 24 in OOE ?

 

[iluvparis]

who is doubtful from top 24 in OOE ?

I'd have doubts over at a minimum

Lys Graceiux - rare the Japanese go Cox Plate - Melbourne Cup
Kew Gardens - doubt comes
Johannes Veremeer - could be dead for all we know

 

[TBellicious]

Paul Preusker has taken over training of Torcedor