Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

Who wins the cup?

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Tiger Moth looks like he is bred to stay the 2 miles stronger to me but a bit of guess work there and Santiago beat him last time at a much shorter SP so has the runs on the board and follow up performances in stronger staying races

I'll probably end up just going heavier on which ever looks like it will start the better SP on the day
 
Jugada said:
Tiger Moth looks like he is bred to stay the 2 miles stronger to me but a bit of guess work there and Santiago beat him last time at a much shorter SP so has the runs on the board and follow up performances in stronger staying races

I'll probably end up just going heavier on which ever looks like it will start the better SP on the day
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Tiger Moth also has the profile of new career PB last time out which used to be a key to finding the winner. Santiago doesn't. But in reality if you like one you should be saving on the other.
 

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TBellicious said:
What type of coverage does the Cup get in England? Is it talked about a lot to the point where racing fans stay up and watch it over there?
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Very little coverage outside the racing press. The 4am start time over here means very few stay up and watch it. If you go into a bookies and ask to see the Melbourne Cup prices you are likely to be asked if that's golf!
 
Jugada said:
Tiger Moth looks like he is bred to stay the 2 miles stronger to me but a bit of guess work there and Santiago beat him last time at a much shorter SP so has the runs on the board and follow up performances in stronger staying races

I'll probably end up just going heavier on which ever looks like it will start the better SP on the day
Click to expand...

Agree that these two are very major players. Santiago looks as if it appreciates a good bit of cut in the ground.
Over the extra 4f, with a kilogram pull in the weights, and the likely going I'd be firmly with Tiger Moth at the moment.
In the Irish Derby, Santiago came into the race a lot more streetwise after four outings cw Tiger Moth's two, so there is reason to believe that Tiger will show more improvement too.
Good jockey booked.
Shame I came late to the party but been getting stuck in over the last week.
 
Mobythepom said:
Agree that these two are very major players. Santiago looks as if it appreciates a good bit of cut in the ground.
Over the extra 4f, with a kilogram pull in the weights, and the likely going I'd be firmly with Tiger Moth at the moment.
In the Irish Derby, Santiago came into the race a lot more streetwise after four outings cw Tiger Moth's two, so there is reason to believe that Tiger will show more improvement too.
Good jockey booked.
Shame I came late to the party but been getting stuck in over the last week.
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What's the dosage index say about Australia's new Champion Russian Camelot?
 
plays tall 1 said:
Welcome back Moby.
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Thank you - good to be back in such esteemed company :)

Dosage Index......

Russian Camelot 0.71
To give that some perspective.....
Tiger Moth 0.66
Santiago 0.78
Surprise Baby 3.00
Finche 0.84
AVD 0.77
Very Elleegant 1.50
Sir Dragonet 0.65
Master of Reality 0.33
Dashing Willoughby 0.77
Warning 1.00
Prince of Arran 0.44

So purely on DI figures Russian Camelot looks fine.
The outlier is Surprise Baby. On those figures you wouldn't be surprised at it's sprint finish last year, but you would be surprised that it was able to do it after running over a mile and a half beforehand. Most likely it is just one of those horses that stays further than it's breeding suggests....Dunaden had a figure of 3.80 after all, but I still harbour a little doubt that it can replicate that effort in a truly run renewal until proven otherwise.
 
PARIS POWER RANKINGS - REGICIDE

Likely big shake up coming post Caulfield Cup but little movement this week

1 - TIGER MOTH (LW #1, $7.4) - Cameltoe getting beat by a Perth cripple and Pricewise tipping this boy on top sees him firm 2 more points this week. Looks set to start clear fave.
2 - SANTIAGO (LW #3, $12.50) - form around Tiger Moth has him right in this and makes his first appearance in the top 2 of the power ratings
3 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #2, $11.50) - Deservedly loses a spot for getting rolled by a washed up hack on Saturday. Having said that looked every inch a cup horse and trainer says he is looking further (which most of us expected with the Melbourne Cup as a KEY target this prep).
4 - SURPRISE BABY (Last week #4, Betfair $10.50) - Chugging along nicely but others look much more classier (generally a good horses race these days). Got out late in Turnbull and ran on late but that race looks awful and was struggling to take ground from MOW late. HUGE DOSAGE CONCERNS!!!!!
5 - ANTHONY VAN DYCK (LW 5, $26) - Prohibitive CC fave who has drifted for the MC this week as he will have a huge weight and the two miles is probably a query.
6 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #6, $30 - Think Flemington suits the least of our big 3 but that didn't stop Johaness Vermeer almost winning at Flemington. Afterthought fappers would have their concerns.
7 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #7, $26) - Nice win in an ordinary Turnbull. Would jump into top 3 contention if it got wet but think she will find a few better dry.
8 - FINCHE (LW #8, $24) - Had to drift a few points this week after getting into utter honest poi poi after turning it up in the Turnbull for the second year in a row. Watch him do the same when looking the winner in both cups.
9 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #9, $32) - Any winning chance went up in smoke when some good horses actually decided to come. J Kah a good jockey booking
10 - MIRAGE DANCER (LW u/r, $120) - Really just shuffling deck chairs for the #10 slot but this was a nice Metrop win. Sure to lose his spot to good Caulfield Cup runs after Saturday.

I note the market has finally woken up to the fact that ASHRUN won't get into the race (and isn't good enough to feature anyway). Out from $20 to $40 this week.
 

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HeathComeBack said:
This is how all tipsters should talk about the horses. Honest and not holding back on his opinion instead of the wishy washy crap they talk about here
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It was short so read through it all - it is utter garbage.

Hates AVD but then has Skyward has his main tip who AVD absolutely belted last time out?

Thinks Collide came through high rating races? Got rolled in the Northumberland Plate ffs and the fact he can't get in is because the races he has been running and failing in are so s**t!

One of the worst previews I've seen (if not THE worst)

Bloke legit has NFI what he is talking about
 
iluvparis said:
It was short so read through it all - it is utter garbage.

Hates AVD but then has Skyward has his main tip who AVD absolutely belted last time out?

Thinks Collide came through high rating races? Got rolled in the Northumberland Plate ffs and the fact he can't get in is because the races he has been running and failing in are so sh*t!

One of the worst previews I've seen (if not THE worst)
I
Bloke legit has NFI what he is talking about
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I couldnt care less if he is wrong or right. He puts his opinion out there and backs it up with facts instead of saying its got none blah blah blah. I dont listen to anyone regarding tips because i do my own form but he has a strong opinion and he has backed it up.
 
HeathComeBack said:
I couldnt care less if he is wrong or right. He puts his opinion out there and backs it up with facts instead of saying its got none blah blah blah. I dont listen to anyone regarding tips because i do my own form but he has a strong opinion and he has backed it up.
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I can't believe you can say that with a straight face. What facts has he put out there? He just uses mindless buzzwords? There are absolutely no FACTS

Which races of Collides are high rating? And if they are so high rating why does he not have enough weight to make the field?

Is it a FACT that AVD was an upset winner of the Epsom Derby when he jumped $8.50?
 
Jugada said:
"Facts"
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Lol i'd laugh if it wasn't coming from the worst reader of insertional form in the history of the punting board.

Probably the same facts you use to argue Intelligence Cross is one of the GOAT UK sprinters.
 
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