Racing Melbourne Cup 2020

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FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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My very rough attempt at a weights scale

Mustajeer 58.0 112
Verry Elleggant 58.0 116 -4
Vow and Declare 57.5 111
Southern France 57.0 110
Young Rascal 57.0 110
Finche 56.0 108
Surprise Baby 56.0 108
Steel Prince 56.0 108
Master of Wine 56.0 108
Mirage Dancer 55.5 107
Etah James 53.5 107 -4
Shraaoh 53.5 103
Shared Ambition 53.5 103
Haky 53.5 103
Spiritual Warrior 53 102ish
King of Leo 52.5 101++
Colette 51.5 106 -7
Russian Camelot 51.5 105 -6
Warning 51.5 102 -3
Django Freeman 51 98
Mugatoo 51 98
Aktau 50.5 100-3
Toffee Tongue 50.0 96-7
Too Close the Sun 50.0 93++
Schaubau 50.0 91


 
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frantelle

Premiership Player
Jul 2, 2007
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Article on Racing.com suggesting that the Russian may end up with at least 52.5kg. More likely to be 53.0 kg.

Extremely hard to guess weights without any idea as to what will happen with the internationals.
 

FallingLiefs

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Without the overseas raiders the horses might actually be weighted properly for a change
Lately its a local the Humidor, Hartnell ilk or a previous winner Almandin, Cross Counter. 116 is a very high rating and comes down 4 for the mares allowance but I cannot find anything that will nominate at 114 or so to even nominate to drop her weight or compress the scale when they withdraw.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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Article on Racing.com suggesting that the Russian may end up with at least 52.5kg. More likely to be 53.0 kg.

Extremely hard to guess weights without any idea as to what will happen with the internationals.
Thanks, I don't exactly know how the scale works with him having his OHR based on SH form so does he get allowance or is it already built into his OHR. Never went looking for answers because never needed to know.

Will have a read.
 

HeathComeBack

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Mar 17, 2014
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Lately its a local the Humidor, Hartnell ilk or a previous winner Almandin, Cross Counter. 116 is a very high rating and comes down 4 for the mares allowance but I cannot find anything that will nominate at 114 or so to even nominate to drop her weight or compress the scale when they withdraw.
My comment was facetious because we under rate overseas horses when they come here and totally over rate our horses hence we get raiders winning a lot. If no raiders come (i actually think some might still come given the prize money) Carpenter is rating horses he has seen on a level basis
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 30, 2013
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Article on Racing.com suggesting that the Russian may end up with at least 52.5kg. More likely to be 53.0 kg.

Extremely hard to guess weights without any idea as to what will happen with the internationals.
Forgot they upped the NH 3yo's to 56.5kg. Reduced him down to -6 and up to 107 which gets him that 52.5kg mark.

Expecting anything from 106-112 for his OHR when they release it in next few days. Dalasan 2nd beaten 1.8 a 103 rater and warning 102 beaten 2.8 ratings looks fairly firm.

Impossible to guess weights but interesting exercise given we may have a limited pool this year, I thought I might as well give it a go to start the thread as it will never be able to be done again (hopefully).
 
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frantelle

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Jul 2, 2007
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Forgot they upped the NH 3yo's to 56.5kg. Reduced him down to -6 and up to 107 which gets him that 52.5kg mark.

Expecting anything from 106-112 for his OHR when they release it in next few days. Dalasan 2nd beaten 1.8 a 103 rater and warning 102 beaten 2.8 ratings looks fairly firm.

Impossible to guess weights but interesting exercise given we may have a limited pool this year, I thought I might as well give it a go to start the thread as it will never be able to be done again (hopefully).
It's an interesting thought exercise.

Carpenter is on tonight's episode of After The Last. No doubt he'll be asked about the Vodka Castle's rating and theoretical implication on MC weight. Unlikely he'll say much more than your analysis covers, but we may gain an insight into his thinking.
 

Hamingja

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May 20, 2014
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Lately its a local the Humidor, Hartnell ilk or a previous winner Almandin, Cross Counter. 116 is a very high rating and comes down 4 for the mares allowance but I cannot find anything that will nominate at 114 or so to even nominate to drop her weight or compress the scale when they withdraw.
Waller to pull a Lloyd and nominate Winx :straining:
 

crow77

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Nov 16, 2016
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I believe overseas horses can travel down under but their Trainers,stable hands and jockeys will not be able to accompany them,Could get a few that are adopted by Aussie trainers,most likely to send would be A Obrien(Hayes),obviously Godolphin and possible Haggas(Waller),
 

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FallingLiefs

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105 Rating Russian Camelot. Seems a touch generous with Quick thinker and Colette getting 106.

That is 6lb behind Il Paradiso, 4lb Cross Counter 5lb Rekindling when they all carried 52.0-52.5 on the new scale. That was also in 115-118 top rater cups so now at 112 it could be a lighter weight than expected.
 

iluvparis

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I believe overseas horses can travel down under but their Trainers,stable hands and jockeys will not be able to accompany them,Could get a few that are adopted by Aussie trainers,most likely to send would be A Obrien(Hayes),obviously Godolphin and possible Haggas(Waller),
Yuk
 

iluvparis

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Golden ticket available on Saturday (not sure why they don't hold it over 3200m?). You'd think only KoL and Norway would be competitive if they could get in.


1589332114823.png
 

iluvparis

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This race @ Leopardstown tonight can sometimes throw up a runner or two but usually contains the ones that lack the class to win at Flemington. Probably even more so this year with the good ones heading to Royal Ascot.

 

plays tall 1

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Aug 4, 2004
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OTI’s San Huberto won the G2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier overnight, beating a few of the usual French suspects. Americain won this race. With that win he’s qualified and his rating will surely be high enough to make the field. Being an OTI horse, he’ll come down for the Cup if possible. Looks tactically versatile. Seems to handle all ground. Some $100 available, I doubt that lasts.
 

HeathComeBack

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Not sure if betting this early given how in the dark we are about horses coming from overseas. Personally I think the field will still be made up of mostly overseas horses
 

iluvparis

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OTI’s San Huberto won the G2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier overnight, beating a few of the usual French suspects. Americain won this race. With that win he’s qualified and his rating will surely be high enough to make the field. Being an OTI horse, he’ll come down for the Cup if possible. Looks tactically versatile. Seems to handle all ground. Some $100 available, I doubt that lasts.
As with most OTI horses these days I doubt his form is good enough and is sure to start poison unders on the day. Got flogged at Listed level first up. Wouldn't touch with borrowed money even at 100s

Mustajeer is rated 10 pounds superior - let that sink in

Twilight Payment ran second last night - Falcon Eight who a few were touting last year was pretty poor in a well beaten third
 
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plays tall 1

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As with most OTI horses these days I doubt his form is good enough and is sure to start poison unders on the day. Got flogged at Listed level first up. Wouldn't touch with borrowed money even at 100s

Mustajeer is rated 10 pounds superior - let that sink in

Twilight Payment ran second last night - Falcon Eight who a few were touting last year was pretty poor in a well beaten third
Not usually a fan of OTI horses but this one looks to have upside, having won a Group 2 at his ninth start.

Where did you get his updated rating from and what is it? I can’t find one.
 

iluvparis

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Not usually a fan of OTI horses but this one looks to have upside, having won a Group 2 at his ninth start.

Where did you get his updated rating from and what is it? I can’t find one.
He’d need multiple furlongs of upside to be competitive for mine.

Was looking at his rating prior to this. The French staying form has been dogshit for a few seasons now as evidenced by the fact Marmelo can go over there and win comfortably. Nothing decent has come out of there for a few years now that the brits know who to bring.

I doubt this kind of form is good enough even in a week year.
 

demon_fanatic

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Port $2.05 to beat Eagles next week, Eagles clearly hating life there but maybe the day weather helps them!?? If this was at night I'd pound the more nimble ground level style from Port
 

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