Racing Melbourne Cup 2020

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iluvparis

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Last year Japan, this year Aiden. Time to multi up fellas
Ludicrously this is also pushing out VE's price in each of the three majors - I can't see that lasting so back here this morning in whichever of the three you like.

$19 at Caulfield and $13 for Cox Plate both look absolute gifts is she goes to either (by comparison Magic Wand is now $15 for the CP and she has been completely and utterly gone for 3 months) - she is starting at least half those if she lines up on the day.
 
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AvantGardener

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Ludicrously this is also pushing out VE's price in each of the three majors - I can't see that lasting so back here this morning in whichever of the three you like.

$19 at Caulfield and $13 for Cox Plate both look absolute gifts is she goes to either (by comparison Magic Wand is now $15 for the CP and she has been completely and utterly gone for 3 months) - she is starting at least half those if she lines up on the day.
I thought she wasn't up to G1 Class?
 

iluvparis

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PARIS POWER RANKINGS - GET YOUR TITS OUT FOR THE LADS!!!

1 - SURPRISE BABY (Last week #1, Betfair $11) - holds on for top spot for now and looms as the only local that can hold off the Irish hordes

2 - TIGER MOTH (LW #2, $13.50) - as expected, received a big enough penalty for his last win to shoot straight into the field and looks extremely hard to beat
3 - SANTIAGO (LW u/r, $19.50) - beat Tiger Moth in the Irish Derby before being placed in the Goodwood Cup behind Stradivarius and running a nice race in the English St Leger. If you like the moth you just have to like this guy as well.
4 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #3, $13) - Loses a place to Santiago (Irish Derby > SA Derby). Still get the feeling the Cox Plate is his ultimate aim
5 - ANTHONY VAN DYCK (LW u/r, $34) - The 2019 Epsom Derby winner. No. 1 seed at Caulfield where it has been much easier to carry weight in recent years but doing so at Flemington is another matter entirely.
6 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #4, $38) - Think Flemington suits the least of our big 3 but that didn't stop Johaness Vermeer almost winning at Flemington.
7 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #5, 25) - Despite locking in the Cups path she was plain awful on Saturday against moderate horses and is poorly weighted here. Continues to slide down the power rankings
8 - FINCHE (LW #6, $36) - I said last week the more good horses that come the lower his winning chance gets so it wasn't a great week for Australia's best staying nonny.
9 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #7, $48) - Any winning chance went up in smoke when some good horses actually decided to come
10 - ORDEROFTHEGARTER (LW u/r, $65) - Will have to win again to get in but you can never leave out an in form Lloyd horse with a light weight.
 

iluvparis

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Tentative rankings

1. The Baby
2. Santiago
3. Tiger Moth

4. Skyward
5. Sir Dragonet
6. Anthony Van Dyck

7. Finche
8. Prince of Arran
9. Stratum
10. Twilight Payment
Lol Skyward at 4 - Aspetar board.

At least Aspetar will get into the race.

Stratum couldn't win if it started now - might be competitive in the Sandown Cup
 

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Jugada

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Lol Skyward at 4 - Aspetar board.

At least Aspetar will get into the race.

Stratum couldn't win if it started now - might be competitive in the Sandown Cup
Lightly raced progressive 4yo. Couple lengths off the Dyck and Stradivarius at equal weights last start good enough to go in the mix. Has more upside than most

None of the last 4 can win but are all old boys who will plod past most up the straight for top 10 beta and bottom of first 4s for deep exotics
 

iluvparis

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Lightly raced progressive 4yo. Couple lengths off the Dyck and Stradivarius at equal weights last start good enough to go in the mix. Has more upside than most

None of the last 4 can win but are all old boys who will plod past most up the straight for top 10 beta and bottom of first 4s for deep exotics
His run behind AVD and Strad was actually very poor - they were 1-2-3 in running in a race they walked the entire way and he was absolutely pathetic late - easily the worst of the leaders and it was pretty much impossible to get beat any further given how the race was run. Would have 10% of the hype if he was trained by Messara.

These 'unexposed' 4yos that come through small field French races just never stack up. Always happy to pen things that have only been running around in France against crap. I'm not sure why he has 'upside' either deep into his 4yo season anyway. He is not going to suddenly improve the multiple lengths he needs to to be any sort of chance.

Won't get in without a win anyway.
 

Jugada

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Refuse to include the Camel on principle. Getting as much distance from it as possible before that Pakenham BM bubble bursts
 

Jugada

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Top 3 are the CLEAR on top picks anyway. Next 3 have marks against them but need to include as possible winners still.

Last 4 are just the safety picks of the rest who will be around the mark in that 6th-12th range.
 

Jugada

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On a serious note regarding the Camel I would still be avoiding him like the plague here. The horse is being 100% aimed at a 2000m race at the Valley, who is the last horse to win a Melbourne Cup as an afterthought? It wouldn't even shock me if they pulled the pin post Cox Plate or rerouted to a MacKinnon. This is a stallion. They need to be looking to chalk up middle distance WFA races, not 2 mile handicaps. Plus they intend to go to Europe after next Autumn so not sure how smart running in a Cup even would be.

The only reason he will back up for a run in it is the owners romanticism of having a runner in a Melbourne Cup. Not a smart move for the horse moving forward or financially and even if they do decide to run in it, it's still an add on to a prep that has been solely aimed at winning a 2000m race in October
 

iluvparis

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On a serious note regarding the Camel I would still be avoiding him like the plague here. The horse is being 100% aimed at a 2000m race at the Valley, who is the last horse to win a Melbourne Cup as an afterthought? It wouldn't even shock me if they pulled the pin post Cox Plate or rerouted to a MacKinnon. This is a stallion. They need to be looking to chalk up middle distance WFA races, not 2 mile handicaps. Plus they intend to go to Europe after next Autumn so not sure how smart running in a Cup even would be.

The only reason he will back up for a run in it is the owners romanticism of having a runner in a Melbourne Cup. Not a smart move for the horse moving forward or financially and even if they do decide to run in it, it's still an add on to a prep that has been solely aimed at winning a 2000m race in October
Yeah it reeks of So You Think's Melbourne Cup prep - but even he ran third completely pulling his head of and not getting the trip - and I'd wager RC ends up being a superior stayer. Whether he is even half as good - well we will find out more on Saturday - he should be belting the tripe he is up against in the Underwood if he is the real deal.

He has to be top 10 on a probabilistic basis just on how unexposed he is (real unexposed not crappy lightly raced French unexposed garbage). You yourself said your bottom 5 or 6 can't win - where I can see a number of states of the world where this guy could. No way I would be backing him antepost right now though.
 

onthehill24

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PARIS POWER RANKINGS - GET YOUR TITS OUT FOR THE LADS!!!

1 - SURPRISE BABY (Last week #1, Betfair $11) - holds on for top spot for now and looms as the only local that can hold off the Irish hordes

2 - TIGER MOTH (LW #2, $13.50) - as expected, received a big enough penalty for his last win to shoot straight into the field and looks extremely hard to beat
3 - SANTIAGO (LW u/r, $19.50) - beat Tiger Moth in the Irish Derby before being placed in the Goodwood Cup behind Stradivarius and running a nice race in the English St Leger. If you like the moth you just have to like this guy as well.
4 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #3, $13) - Loses a place to Santiago (Irish Derby > SA Derby). Still get the feeling the Cox Plate is his ultimate aim
5 - ANTHONY VAN DYCK (LW u/r, $34) - The 2019 Epsom Derby winner. No. 1 seed at Caulfield where it has been much easier to carry weight in recent years but doing so at Flemington is another matter entirely.
6 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #4, $38) - Think Flemington suits the least of our big 3 but that didn't stop Johaness Vermeer almost winning at Flemington.
7 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #5, 25) - Despite locking in the Cups path she was plain awful on Saturday against moderate horses and is poorly weighted here. Continues to slide down the power rankings
8 - FINCHE (LW #6, $36) - I said last week the more good horses that come the lower his winning chance gets so it wasn't a great week for Australia's best staying nonny.
9 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #7, $48) - Any winning chance went up in smoke when some good horses actually decided to come
10 - ORDEROFTHEGARTER (LW u/r, $65) - Will have to win again to get in but you can never leave out an in form Lloyd horse with a light weight.
Luv your work PARIS
How about a top ten for the CC on its page ?
Cause I got no idea on it Just yet
 

iluvparis

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Luv your work PARIS
How about a top ten for the CC on its page ?
Cause I got no idea on it Just yet
I doubt I could even name 10 I rate in the CC - AVD, VE and maybe Dalasan would be the only ones I would consider right now.

Dalasan actually still ok antepost value if he is going there at 40s - there is plenty of crap lower in price than him.

Don't think you need to be stepping in early - plenty at the top of the market that will make the final field I would be happy to oppose so just wait and see who makes it in.
 

iluvparis

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PARIS POWER RANKINGS - CALM BEFORE THE STORM

Not much of note happening this week

1 - SURPRISE BABY (Last week #1, Betfair $10.50) - holds on for top spot for now but some higher class gallopers are gunning for him

2 - TIGER MOTH (LW #2, $11.50) - superb jockey booking (K McEvoy) sees him trim up another couple of points on the fair
3 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #4, $10.50) - Best non-staying local by panels and owner remains dead keen on going for the immortal CP/MP double that So You Think fell just short of
4 - SANTIAGO (LW 3, $18.50) - booking of J Allen sees him lose his spot in the top 3
5 - ANTHONY VAN DYCK (LW 5, $26) - The 2019 Epsom Derby winner. No. 1 seed at Caulfield where it has been much easier to carry weight in recent years but doing so at Flemington is another matter entirely.
6 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #6, $38) - Think Flemington suits the least of our big 3 but that didn't stop Johaness Vermeer almost winning at Flemington.
7 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #7, $27) - Bit of a D-day this week for this girl in the Turnbull at Flemington so expect movement next monday
8 - FINCHE (LW #8, $42) - Could be value on top 5 markets (and you can fund the bet by laying him to win)
9 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #9, $44) - Any winning chance went up in smoke when some good horses actually decided to come
10 - ORDEROFTHEGARTER (LW 10, $80) - Will have to win again to get in but you can never leave out an in form Lloyd horse with a light weight.

My main point to note this week is that ASHRUN is into utter poi poi at $20 on the exchange. Last win was in a G3 at Deuville over a year ago and rolled three times this year at G2 level or worse in France and Germany - the kind of dogshit formlines I wouldn't even rate the winners out of let alone the losers. Even ignoring all that he is still #48 in the Order of Entry so might need to win to get in anyway!
 

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