Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[iluvparis]

And noms for the last win and you are in

 

[Scratchy05]

Some out of the box calls there for sure. No Dragon?

Fascinating list. On what basis do you have Persan, Vow & Declare, Steel Prince (and others) above Russian Camelot and Sir Dragonet

In response to Russian Camelot, the only thing appealing to me is the weight. I don't think he is good at settling and O'Brien conducted a genetic test on him and it indicates his best is 2000-2400m. Another thing is that his grand final has been the Cox Plate which has always been stated and the Melbourne Cup is the cherry on top. He has been aimed at smaller trips which makes me think he wont see out 3200m as well as others.

As for Sir Dragonet, I think if it was wet, he would 100% be in my top 10 but it seems there will be very little rain, which makes me think the track will be a good 4. His soft form is very ordinary as well. I don't like the Cox Plae into the Melbourne Cup as a prep either as the last horse to do that was Makybe Diva and she was a champion, Sir Dragonet is not, he is just a very handy horse but a step or two below top tier. I think he should be alright with the trip though as he does have a 4th behind Logician over 2800m.

For Persan, Vow & Steel Prince, I personally believe they are all 3200m horses. Persan is a progressive type who has solid form surrounding him with a Shared Ambition 2nd behind a very strong performance by Miami Bound and Steel Prince who came 1st in the Geelong cup. I genuinely see him as a winning chance. Steel Prince and Vow & Declare I don't think are as strong of winning chances as Sir Dragonet per say but I think they are more consistent and I think both will run top 10. Less sure about Vow & Declare because he needs to lead, otherwise my selection is off.

If I had to re-do it already, I'd push Miami bound to 9th, Steel Prince to 10th andVow & Declare off but I believe the loss of Jamie Kah will really hurt Miami Bound.

 

[Scratchy05]

And noms for the last win and you are in

View attachment 995512

Hope Schabau wins purely as I have a future on it.

 

[iluvparis]

For Persan, Vow & Steel Prince, I personally believe they are all 3200m horses. Persan is a progressive type who has solid form surrounding him with a Shared Ambition 2nd behind a very strong performance by Miami Bound and Steel Prince who came 1st in the Geelong cup. I genuinely see him as a winning chance. Steel Prince and Vow & Declare I don't think are as strong of winning chances as Sir Dragonet per say but I think they are more consistent and I think both will run top 10. Less sure about Vow & Declare because he needs to lead, otherwise my selection is off.

Personally I'm not sure what the words form and Shared Ambition are doing in a paragraph talking about Melbourne Cup winners.

Are you not concerned that all the form you are looking at is the horses that the handicapper has rated not good enough to even make the field without winning their way in?

 

[Scratchy05]

Personally I'm not sure what the words form and Shared Ambition are doing in a paragraph talking about Melbourne Cup winners

Shared Ambition is a solid performer without being spectacular and Persan did it pretty easy against him. Also knocked off Steel Prince who beat Ashrun, Le Don De Vie and King Of Leogrance, once again, solid types but nothing to special. If Schabau wins on Saturday, it only consolidates his form even more. Persan most definitely should be in discussions as a progressive horse. The Bart Cummings also proves to be a great lead up race with Almandin winning in 2016 and Surprise Baby performing very admirably in 2019. Avilius had genuine excuses as he had a horse who died in front of him but he has since produced very good form.

Also wdym. I have 2 horses who fit this bill in mine. So do you.

 

[iluvparis]

Shared Ambition is a solid performer without being spectacular and Persan did it pretty easy against him. Also knocked off Steel Prince who beat Ashrun, Le Don De Vie and King Of Leogrance, once again, solid types but nothing to special. If Schabau wins on Saturday, it only consolidates his form even more. Persan most definitely should be in discussions as a progressive horse. The Bart Cummings also proves to be a great lead up race with Almandin winning in 2016 and Surprise Baby performing very admirably in 2019. Avilius had genuine excuses as he had a horse who died in front of him but he has since produced very good form.

Also wdym. I have 2 horses who fit this bill in mine. So do you.

The Bart Cummings has historically been an atrocious lead up filled with the C graders who need to win to get in.

Schabau winning on the weekend would consolidate nothing as it has just been the same horses racing each other for the last 6 weeks trying to get the last 1 or 2 spots. None of them have gone close to facing a good horse or one with a real chance in that time.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Warning might be worthwhile throwing into multi's for value. Loves Flemington and has been travelling ok this prep. Just average in the CC but I doubt they were really there to win it anyway.

 

[iluvparis]

Warning might be worthwhile throwing into multi's for value. Loves Flemington and has been travelling ok this prep. Just average in the CC but I doubt they were really there to win it anyway.

Have heard this hot take from a few people - I think the more accurate reason he went no good at Caulfield is because he isn't up to them. Can't see him featuring with a Derby winners weight and will be leaving out of everything.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Have heard this hot take from a few people - I think the more accurate reason he went no good at Caulfield is because he isn't up to them. Can't see him featuring with a Derby winners weight and will be leaving out of everything.

There was an article before the race on Racenet or one of those websites where the trainer was saying that with the wide gate in the CC they didn't want to knock him around too much. The run before that in the Turnbull was much better. Clearly Flemington is his track and he can stay. Not necessarily saying he can win, but he's one that can be in the finish at good odds.

 

[king rising]

There is no way that Sir Dragonet should be shorter in the marketplace than Tony Van Dyck.

 

[iluvparis]

There was an article before the race on Racenet or one of those websites where the trainer was saying that with the wide gate in the CC they didn't want to knock him around too much. The run before that in the Turnbull was much better. Clearly Flemington is his track and he can stay. Not necessarily saying he can win, but he's one that can be in the finish at good odds.

Yeah but the Turnbull form is hot garbage - they all went awful at Caulfield.

 

[iluvparis]

There is no way that Sir Dragonet should be shorter in the marketplace than Tony Van Dyck.

Yes there is....weight

 

[Scratchy05]

The Bart Cummings has historically been an atrocious lead up filled with the C graders who need to win to get in.

Schabau winning on the weekend would consolidate nothing as it has just been the same horses racing each other for the last 6 weeks trying to get the last 1 or 2 spots. None of them have gone close to facing a good horse or one with a real chance in that time.

Again, since the race has became a G3, it has became a very good form guide. Since 2014, 5 horses have contested the Melb cup and you can put a pin through Avilius as a horse broke down right in front of him. They have an average position of 5.75 with an average lengths defeated by of 4.55L. The Caufield Cup from 2014-2019 (Ignoring Admire Ratki for obvious reasons) however, has an average finishing position of 11th being 9.5L off the Leader. The Bart CUmmings is an excellent judge of form. Possibly the best judge of form in recent years from an Australian race.

You criticise my selection of Persan yet you have Steel Prince and Le Don De Vie in yours. One who lost pretty comfortably to Persan and the other who lost to Steel Prince who beat Persan. Both of which, the handicapper didn't have in the field prior to the Geelong Cup and Le Don De Vie needs to win a race to qualify, yet you don't see any issue with them.

 

[Scratchy05]

There was an article before the race on Racenet or one of those websites where the trainer was saying that with the wide gate in the CC they didn't want to knock him around too much. The run before that in the Turnbull was much better. Clearly Flemington is his track and he can stay. Not necessarily saying he can win, but he's one that can be in the finish at good odds.

Yeah tbh, I don't mind Warning but don't think he is quite good enough.

 

[iluvparis]

. The Caufield Cup from 2014-2019 (Ignoring Admire Ratki for obvious reasons) however, has an average finishing position of 11th being 9.5L off the Leader. The Bart CUmmings is an excellent judge of form. Possibly the best judge of form in recent years from an Australian race.

You criticise my selection of Persan yet you have Steel Prince and Le Don De Vie in yours. One who lost pretty comfortably to Persan and the other who lost to Steel Prince who beat Persan. Both of which, the handicapper didn't have in the field prior to the Geelong Cup and Le Don De Vie needs to win a race to qualify, yet you don't see any issue with them.

The bold part is a truly horrific call - every out of form camel that runs in the Caulfield Cup goes on and runs in the Melbourne Cup no matter what. Half of the hacks in the Bart Cummings don't get a chance to disappoint at Flemington like the CC also rans do. To say it is the best Aussie lead in is laughable.

You have Persan 5 - I have SP and LDDV in slots I have said repeatedly can't win.

 

[Scratchy05]

The bold part is a truly horrific call - every out of form camel that runs in the Caulfield Cup goes on and runs in the Melbourne Cup no matter what. Half of the hacks in the Bart Cummings don't get a chance to disappoint at Flemington like the CC also rans do. To say it is the best Aussie lead in is laughable.

You have Persan 5 - I have SP and LDDV in slots I have said repeatedly can't win.

First of all, it is my opinion. We are all entitled to one. Secondly, the reason those hacks don't get to run are because they aren't good enough. The winner of the race typically is however a great indicator for the Melbourne cup as generally, a progressive type wins and they go on to improve in their following start. Since Persan broke his maiden, he has a record of 6 wins and 3 seconds so can't fault his form as he generally beats who he comes up against. Once again, the average finishing place since 2014 is 5.75 (ignoring Avilius) which goes close to my prediction of 5th with him. The winner of the Bart Cummings since 2014 has been a great indicator and I don't see how it can be disputed. With a 1st, 3rd, 5th & 14th. It is generally very solid. So by that definition yes. No race has a better guideline looking at purely who won the race then the Bart Cummings. Obviously that isn't how you just do form but Persan looking like a big improver, a low weight and solid form looks a great prospect.

 

[iluvparis]

First of all, it is my opinion. We are all entitled to one. Secondly, the reason those hacks don't get to run are because they aren't good enough. The winner of the race typically is however a great indicator for the Melbourne cup as generally, a progressive type wins and they go on to improve in their following start. Since Persan broke his maiden, he has a record of 6 wins and 3 seconds so can't fault his form as he generally beats who he comes up against. Once again, the average finishing place since 2014 is 5.75 (ignoring Avilius) which goes close to my prediction of 5th with him. The winner of the Bart Cummings since 2014 has been a great indicator and I don't see how it can be disputed. With a 1st, 3rd, 5th & 14th. It is generally very solid. So by that definition yes. No race has a better guideline looking at purely who won the race then the Bart Cummings. Obviously that isn't how you just do form but Persan looking like a big improver, a low weight and solid form looks a great prospect.

The Caulfield Cup has produced a winner and a second in the last 3 years alone - so I assume its the superior race now?

Persan profiles absolutely nothing like recent Cup winners and is miles off the level needed to win the race - how many of the horses in the race wouldn't also have won 6 from the last 9 against the absolute trash he has been racing.

 

[54Dogs]

If there is a horse you would love to own it's Persan, genuinely as honest as they come. One of my favs but is outclassed by about 33.7 lengths

 

[Scratchy05]

The Caulfield Cup has produced a winner and a second in the last 3 years alone - so I assume its the superior race now?

Persan profiles absolutely nothing like recent Cup winners and is miles off the level needed to win the race - how many of the horses in the race wouldn't also have won 6 from the last 9 against the absolute trash he has been racing.

First of all, I have no doubt the Caufield Cup is a superior race with superior horses. Lets get that straight. I said purely from a horse who wins the race perspective, the Bart Cummings is a better form guide. You once again have put Steel Prince in your top 10, so it can't be that trash. Sound was solid last Melbourne cup. Shared Ambition is a solid horse. If a Schabau, Sound or Lord Belvedere wins the Bart Cummings, his form is further consolidated. He is also an improving type clearly winning 6/9 beating nothing special but again, can't fault winning form.

It is an opinion and I'm allowed to have one so we can agree to disagree on this one and wait until cup day because he is 5th on mine so I'm not even saying he wins. Just think he has a good chance to cause an upset but running bottom half wouldn't necessarily surprise me.

 

[iluvparis]

First of all, I have no doubt the Caufield Cup is a superior race with superior horses. Lets get that straight. I said purely from a horse who wins the race perspective, the Bart Cummings is a better form guide. You once again have put Steel Prince in your top 10, so it can't be that trash. Sound was solid last Melbourne cup. Shared Ambition is a solid horse. If a Schabau, Sound or Lord Belvedere wins the Bart Cummings, his form is further consolidated. He is also an improving type clearly winning 6/9 beating nothing special but again, can't fault winning form.

It is an opinion and I'm allowed to have one so we can agree to disagree on this one and wait until cup day because he is 5th on mine so I'm not even saying he wins. Just think he has a good chance to cause an upset but running bottom half wouldn't necessarily surprise me.

Sounds is an Australian maiden who was absolutely awful in last years Melbourne Cup. None of the horses you are talking about are even remotely good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

And as I have said repeatedly - there are 5-6 decent horses in this race and the rest can't win - you can see that in the betting and from the fact I have been shuffling my 8-10 slots with any old horse the entire time. You have Persan 5th!!!

The bold is not true! I know you mean the Hotham but one of them has to win because they are just racing themselves again and again trying to make the field! So it doesn't actually frank the form any further.

You are allowed to have your opinion but you are also allowed to have the logic of that opinion questioned.

 

[Scratchy05]

Sounds is an Australian maiden who was absolutely awful in last years Melbourne Cup. None of the horses you are talking about are even remotely good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.

And as I have said repeatedly - there are 5-6 decent horses in this race and the rest can't win - you can see that in the betting and from the fact I have been shuffling my 8-10 slots with any old horse the entire time. You have Persan 5th!!!

The bold is not true! I know you mean the Hotham but one of them has to win because they are just racing themselves again and again trying to make the field! So it doesn't actually frank the form any further.

You are allowed to have your opinion but you are also allowed to have the logic of that opinion questioned.

Lets look at some of the horses I'd call very little chance. Verry Elleegant isn't the same standard on a dry track as a wet. She often fights the jockey and with her never going past 2400m in the past, I will happily risk her as I don't think she will stay the distance. Russian Camelot similar, he doesn't settle well and O'Brien did a genetic test hinting he is a 2000-2400m horse and since he has been aimed at the Cox Plate, the Melb Cup is an afterthought and I can't see him winning, especially as Sir Dragonet beat him home. Speaking of Sir Dragonet, he doesn't handle good ground well at all. Buckhurst put 1.5kgs on him carrying more weight and he has shown nothing in Aus. Most of his starts have been over 2000m so it makes me think he won't handle the step up on good ground.
Which I have answered your points. I see Anthony Van Dyck as a good chance but even he has negatives. He has never ran over 2400m and will be lugging a gigantic weight. I'll probably still include him in my first 4s.

That is the thing about Persan, he is progressive. A very unexposed lightly raced type, as Avilius was, as Almandin was and as Surprise Baby was. Persan is an unknown who ticks all the boxes. He seems to be tracking towards handling the distance, he has had a nice freshen for the Melb Cup, a versatile running style and most importantly, a very low weight. The big negative is that he doesn't have G1 form but in a sense, that is the beauty, unlike other horses who have lost to others in high quality races before, he brings in a new formline, which is why I think he profiles well as he ticks all the other boxes. This will be the last message about Persan because you are not listening but I have made my point about why I like him multiple times. You don't have to agree but that is why I have him 5th.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

I think if he gets a run, King of Leogrance turns the tables on SP and LDDV in the Melbourne Cup

 

[Scratchy05]

Also and in response to you Market reflecting the race, take a look at the average starting price of the first 4 horses

2019: $17.25
2018: $17.00
2017: $17.25
2016: $14.63

That is well above your top 5/6 chances where your top 6 horses that you claim are the only 6 that have a chance currently price at $8.75 (according to Sportsbet). Not a single one of your horses exceeds the average win price of the Melbourne Cup over the past 4 years which is $11.5,your highest horse is $10 right now according to Sportsbet.

Meanwhile, my 5 best chances as I'd rank my top 5 ahead of the next have an average price of $18.4 which is just a tad higher than the average first 4s.Using the Market to purely decide who is a chance is not the best way to operate. Some horses perform better while others perform worse.

 

[iluvparis]

Lets look at some of the horses I'd call very little chance. Verry Elleegant isn't the same standard on a dry track as a wet. She often fights the jockey and with her never going past 2400m in the past, I will happily risk her as I don't think she will stay the distance. Russian Camelot similar, he doesn't settle well and O'Brien did a genetic test hinting he is a 2000-2400m horse and since he has been aimed at the Cox Plate, the Melb Cup is an afterthought and I can't see him winning, especially as Sir Dragonet beat him home. Speaking of Sir Dragonet, he doesn't handle good ground well at all. Buckhurst put 1.5kgs on him carrying more weight and he has shown nothing in Aus. Most of his starts have been over 2000m so it makes me think he won't handle the step up on good ground.
Which I have answered your points. I see Anthony Van Dyck as a good chance but even he has negatives. He has never ran over 2400m and will be lugging a gigantic weight. I'll probably still include him in my first 4s.

That is the thing about Persan, he is progressive. A very unexposed lightly raced type, as Avilius was, as Almandin was and as Surprise Baby was. Persan is an unknown who ticks all the boxes. He seems to be tracking towards handling the distance, he has had a nice freshen for the Melb Cup, a versatile running style and most importantly, a very low weight. The big negative is that he doesn't have G1 form but in a sense, that is the beauty, unlike other horses who have lost to others in high quality races before, he brings in a new formline, which is why I think he profiles well as he ticks all the other boxes. This will be the last message about Persan because you are not listening but I have made my point about why I like him multiple times. You don't have to agree but that is why I have him 5th.

I think our main difference is you are looking for 3200m form where as I am looking at 2400m form. Most of the horses you have included in your list are plodders I think will be too slow.

Im not sure how Persan is unexposed or lightly raced - he has had 19 starts - and he is no way comparable in class to the horses you mentioned him alongside. Avilius and Almandin were rated 20 pounds superior when they won the Bart Cummings and did so carrying 6 and 4 kgs over the limit. Persan was on the limit - he is a lengths inferior horse as dogs has stated. They are not the same types juts because they won the same race. Brining in a new formline because you have been racing against utter filth is not a positive and does not make you a better pick than horses that are losing to other high class horses. Armory and Sir D had won TWO of their last 16 starts combined and have just come out here and run 1-2 in the Cox Plate.

And Sir D managed to finish 5th in the Derby beaten less than a length by AVD on good ground so I think he handles it ok.

 

[iluvparis]

I think if he gets a run, King of Leogrance turns the tables on SP and LDDV in the Melbourne Cup

Would be classic Lloyd