Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[iluvparis]

Also and in response to you Market reflecting the race, take a look at the average starting price of the first 4 horses

2019: $17.25
2018: $17.00
2017: $17.25
2016: $14.63

That is well above your top 5/6 chances where your top 6 horses that you claim are the only 6 that have a chance currently price at $8.75 (according to Sportsbet). Not a single one of your horses exceeds the average win price of the Melbourne Cup over the past 4 years which is $11.5,your highest horse is $10 right now according to Sportsbet.

Meanwhile, my 5 best chances as I'd rank my top 5 ahead of the next have an average price of $18.4 which is just a tad higher than the average first 4s.Using the Market to purely decide who is a chance is not the best way to operate. Some horses perform better while others perform worse.

You'll note that I had most of my selections high up in the rankings before the market cottoned on to them.

Promoting some random horse that isn't good enough up your rankings to boost the average SP is just silly.

 

[Jugada]

Some atrocious form lines being referenced here. Your Geelong Cups, Mooney valley cups and Bart Cummings horses are all absolute trash and are form lines I would use for a race like the Hobart Cup. There is a massive gap in class from those in the top 7-8 to the rest

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

And noms for the last win and you are in

View attachment 995512

Loading up on the Jap again.

 

[iluvparis]

Loading up on the Jap again.

If he wins this and then the Cup after I had the Jap going for many monies last year I will be livid.

 

[Scratchy05]

You'll note that I had most of my selections high up in the rankings before the market cottoned on to them.

Promoting some random horse that isn't good enough up your rankings to boost the average SP is just silly.

Well fine, ignore Persan and look at my top 4. My price is still much more accurate than yours. No way do the top 6 in the market run top 4. Im 100% sure of it. There will be 1-2 others who put in very strong runs and finish in the top 4.

 

[Scratchy05]

Some atrocious form lines being referenced here. Your Geelong Cups, Mooney valley cups and Bart Cummings horses are all absolute trash and are form lines I would use for a race like the Hobart Cup. There is a massive gap in class from those in the top 7-8 to the rest

You can look back and see how the winner of the Bart Cummings has performed in the previous renditions. I agree with the MV Cup and Geelong cup aren't great but I thought Miami Bound was sensational last start and could go close on a wet deck as she made up ground on a day it was hard to ride up ground on. Prince of Arran did run 2nd from a Geelong Cup win as well last year so both races aren't terrible but aren't great.

 

[Hamingja]

Prince of Arran won the Geelong cup in 2:26.84 compared to Steel Prince's 2:30.36. Fair difference. I will probably leave a couple at the top of the market out for multiples and take your Steel Prince's of the world for 3rd/4th but hard to argue they are actually a winning chance.

 

[Scratchy05]

Prince of Arran won the Geelong cup in 2:26.84 compared to Steel Prince's 2:30.36. Fair difference. I will probably leave a couple at the top of the market out for multiples and take your Steel Prince's of the world for 3rd/4th but hard to argue they are actually a winning chance.

Oh I don't think Steel prince can win, shouldve made that clear. I just think with his versatility and low weight, he runs a solid race.

 

[Jugada]

You can look back and see how the winner of the Bart Cummings has performed in the previous renditions. I agree with the MV Cup and Geelong cup aren't great but I thought Miami Bound was sensational last start and could go close on a wet deck as she made up ground on a day it was hard to ride up ground on. Prince of Arran did run 2nd from a Geelong Cup win as well last year so both races aren't terrible but aren't great.

Don't look at the name of the races, look at the horses in them. Those races have produced some decent horses before because decent horses used them as lead ups. This year we have had the bottom of the barrel trash try to come through those races

 

[Scratchy05]

Don't look at the name of the races, look at the horses in them. Those races have produced some decent horses before because decent horses used them as lead ups. This year we have had the bottom of the barrel trash try to come through those races

Except that wasn't the case. WIth the Geelong Cup, people were saying it was a very strong rendition with horses such as Ashrun and Skyward being very highly rated among others like Le Don De Vie and San Hueberto were well liked.

Same goes for the Bart Cummings. Some very strong B graders entered that race which was a stronger rendition compared to what Surprise Baby beat as give me Schabau, Steel Prince, Shared Ambition among others are far superior to Supernova and Wolfe

For the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, I can't defend this years rendition, outside the fact that Miami Bound was very visually impressive and it shows with people rating her win very highly.

 

[TBellicious]

Prince of Arran won the Geelong cup in 2:26.84 compared to Steel Prince's 2:30.36. Fair difference. I will probably leave a couple at the top of the market out for multiples and take your Steel Prince's of the world for 3rd/4th but hard to argue they are actually a winning chance.

Always dangerous comparing times on different days IMO, conditions can be hugely different.

 

[Jugada]

Except that wasn't the case. WIth the Geelong Cup, people were saying it was a very strong rendition with horses such as Ashrun and Skyward being very highly rated among others like Le Don De Vie and San Hueberto were well liked.

Same goes for the Bart Cummings. Some very strong B graders entered that race which was a stronger rendition compared to what Surprise Baby beat as give me Schabau, Steel Prince, Shared Ambition among others are far superior to Supernova and Wolfe

For the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, I can't defend this years rendition, outside the fact that Miami Bound was very visually impressive and it shows with people rating her win very highly.

What? That Geelong Cup was horrendous with the worst of the internationals lining up. Whoever was calling it strong has NFI. Ashrun has been getting laughed out of the building in here for months. LDDV was like 60-1 in the CC

 

[Scratchy05]

What? That Geelong Cup was horrendous with the worst of the internationals lining up. Whoever was calling it strong has NFI. Ashrun has been getting laughed out of the building in here for months. LDDV was like 60-1 in the CC

Ashrun ran 2nd to Call the Wind who has been a top 5 euro stayer in recent times. Skyward finished 2.75L off AVD in his start prior which isnt terrible for a horse having only his 7th start at the same weight considering AVD put lengths on a fair few decent types in the Caulfield Cup. It was a very strong renditon

 

[Jugada]

Ashrun ran 2nd to Call the Wind who has been a top 5 euro stayer in recent times. Skyward finished 2.75L off AVD in his start prior which isnt terrible for a horse having only his 7th start at the same weight considering AVD put lengths on a fair few decent types in the Caulfield Cup. It was a very strong renditon

No it was garbage. Skyward was a spec odds pick of mine I was hoping would improve out here but obviously didn't considering he couldn't beat that rubbish.

Call The Wind a tip 5 Euro stayer?

 

[Hamingja]

Always dangerous comparing times on different days IMO, conditions can be hugely different.

That's true but PoA's Geelong Cup was the fastest since Media Puzzle IIRC. It was noted at the time as a big run outside the norm for a Geelong Cup.

 

[Scratchy05]

No it was garbage. Skyward was a spec odds pick of mine I was hoping would improve out here but obviously didn't considering he couldn't beat that rubbish.

Call The Wind a tip 5 Euro stayer?

He ran multiple 2nds to very nice horses as well as a great victory in Saudi Arabia. Maybe not quite as high as I stated but he is a very handy type. San Hueberto beat him who also was in the Geelong Cup. It is dumb thinking this race wasnt strong. It is very good for a G3.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Prince of Arran won the Geelong cup in 2:26.84 compared to Steel Prince's 2:30.36. Fair difference. I will probably leave a couple at the top of the market out for multiples and take your Steel Prince's of the world for 3rd/4th but hard to argue they are actually a winning chance.

Steel Prince 00.01s outside Americains and not far off Dunaden's. Utterly pointless comparing.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

What do you make of the Mullins ex hurdler?
Had success in the past with Max Dynamite
Stratum Albion

 

[TBellicious]

What do you make of the Mullins ex hurdler?
Had success in the past with Max Dynamite
Stratum Albion

No expert on the internationals, but an 8 year old with 4000 metre hurdling form is not the type of profile that wins Melbourne Cup’s these days

 

[Hamingja]

What do you make of the Mullins ex hurdler?
Had success in the past with Max Dynamite
Stratum Albion

Max Dynamite had won a group 2 on the flat. Stratum Albion winning flat form is through handicaps. One to slot in at the bottom of the multiples maybe.

 

[iluvparis]

Except that wasn't the case. WIth the Geelong Cup, people were saying it was a very strong rendition with horses such as Ashrun and Skyward being very highly rated among others like Le Don De Vie and San Hueberto were well liked.

Same goes for the Bart Cummings. Some very strong B graders entered that race which was a stronger rendition compared to what Surprise Baby beat as give me Schabau, Steel Prince, Shared Ambition among others are far superior to Supernova and Wolfe

For the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, I can't defend this years rendition, outside the fact that Miami Bound was very visually impressive and it shows with people rating her win very highly.

Yeah horses like Ashrun and Skyward were being rated by people with NFI idea how to do international form. As I've been saying for 2 months if they were any good (they aren't!) they would have got a sufficient weight to get into the race.

Miami Bound has been utter trash ever since her Oaks win and the fact she won by 2 lengths tells you all you need to know about the race. Sound was almost fave and Shared Ambition is the most overrated import ever to land here

You are looking at every wrong race.

 

[iluvparis]

Ashrun ran 2nd to Call the Wind who has been a top 5 euro stayer in recent times. Skyward finished 2.75L off AVD in his start prior which isnt terrible for a horse having only his 7th start at the same weight considering AVD put lengths on a fair few decent types in the Caulfield Cup. It was a very strong renditon

Call The Wind might have been a top 5 stayer over marathon trips (4000m) but has stayed at home beating up on other French hacks. It is absolutely not a horse to be looking at for a Melbourne Cup form line

If you could do international form you would know that Skywards run in the AVD race was awful and the way the race was run it was impossible to finish any further back (a bit like Sound in last years Melbourne Cup).

 

[iluvparis]

What do you make of the Mullins ex hurdler?
Had success in the past with Max Dynamite
Stratum Albion

Has none

Way too slow - might be able to plod into 5th or 6th like one of his previous raiders (i.e. Thomas Hobson or Simenon)

 

[king rising]

Three horse race

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Weak edition few winning hopes

Tiger Moth
Surprise Baby
Sir Dragonet
Russian Camelot
Weight too much for AVD