Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

Who wins the cup?


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I had a small nibble on Steel Prince at 100-1 last week even though i have my doubts i like taking a roughie early and his run last year in the Cup was genuinely good IMO beaten only 2 lengths after over racing early and i reckon he comes back a better chance. Freedman is also very bullish on him from what i am reading.

Interesting to see how he comes back from his lengthy spell but worth a small dabble at those odds IMO.

Think they have left 1-2 zeroes off that price.
 
Aug 4, 2004
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I had a small nibble on Steel Prince at 100-1 last week even though i have my doubts i like taking a roughie early and his run last year in the Cup was genuinely good IMO beaten only 2 lengths after over racing early and i reckon he comes back a better chance. Freedman is also very bullish on him from what i am reading.

Interesting to see how he comes back from his lengthy spell but worth a small dabble at those odds IMO.
Some value at that price. Was near favourite early spring last year and then endured the prep from hell, getting scratched at the barriers and missing a run and injured.

He pulled hard in the Cup and was beaten only 2 lengths. He beat Surprise Baby over 2800m in the Ramsden, albeit with a much better run and by the narrowest margin.

No doubt Surprise Baby has the better turn of foot but it might not be a sit/sprint this year.
 
Aug 4, 2004
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Santiago would be very interesting, but probably regarded too highly by Coolmore. Tiger Moth may be more realistic. I expect they head to the St Leger and their runs there may determine the plan.

Port Guillaume very interesting too. Apparently if he wins the GP de Paris next start he goes to the Arc, otherwise he’ll be set for the Cups.

Interesting to see Anthony Van Dyck nominated. That would please Chris Waller as, presumably, he gets top weight (rating 121) and compresses the weights a bit, relieving Verry Ellegant of some weight. I doubt AVD comes down for the Cup though and if he did the weight would wreck his chances.

Likewise in the Caulfield Cup, the nomination of Magical (122) should see Verry Elleegant and Regal Power get in a bit lighter than anticipated.
 
Some value at that price. Was near favourite early spring last year and then endured the prep from hell, getting scratched at the barriers and missing a run and injured.

He pulled hard in the Cup and was beaten only 2 lengths. He beat Surprise Baby over 2800m in the Ramsden, albeit with a much better run and by the narrowest margin.

No doubt Surprise Baby has the better turn of foot but it might not be a sit/sprint this year.

Fair price at best - most likely heinous unders. Everything was beaten only 2 lengths in the race last year. It was always massive poi poi when it was at the top of the markets last year and last year it hit $81 on the day. So you may as well just wait and get that price again once you know its made the field.

It probably needs to win a race to make the field again this year so just back it in the qualifying race.
 
Santiago would be very interesting, but probably regarded too highly by Coolmore. Tiger Moth may be more realistic. I expect they head to the St Leger and their runs there may determine the plan.

Port Guillaume very interesting too. Apparently if he wins the GP de Paris next start he goes to the Arc, otherwise he’ll be set for the Cups.

Interesting to see Anthony Van Dyck nominated. That would please Chris Waller as, presumably, he gets top weight (rating 121) and compresses the weights a bit, relieving Verry Ellegant of some weight. I doubt AVD comes down for the Cup though and if he did the weight would wreck his chances.

Likewise in the Caulfield Cup, the nomination of Magical (122) should see Verry Elleegant and Regal Power get in a bit lighter than anticipated.

Like English King I reckon Santiago is a billion to one to come and is more likely to end up in the Arc (the lads will want as many runners as possible to ensure Gayaatriah doesn't get a soft time in front).

PG could be interesting but I maintain that the French form has been pretty dog s**t for a while now and the small fields he has been beating up is form nowhere near good enough for this. They might as well have a shot at the stumps though as he is a billion to one to win this years Arc.
 
Delphi and Dawn Patrol the 3yos I would want to be on

Finally a smart punter - Delphi profiles as the most likely for me of anything mentioned so far. Entered under the Freedman name so extremely likely to come. Am on.
 
Cliffs on LDDV win? Cbf finding a replay

Nice win in a weak race. Second would have been 30/1 in the Ebor (was scratched race morning).

Won't be good enough but if you want to back it may as well back it CC antepost as its going there and will be better suited 2400 over 3200

Replay

 
PARIS POWER RANKINGS

Thought I'd roll some weekly power rankings for a laugh and partially to help my thought process going forward into the race. Looking through the betting markets and jeez its dire out there.

1 - DEPLHI ($36 betfair) - Profiles like the recent 3yos that have dominated this race. Entered under the Freedman training tag so you know he's coming.
2 - SURPRISE BABY ($10.50) - Stevie Wonder couldn't have missed its run last year when it was probably a certainty beaten. A repeat of that has it right in the finish again this year.
3 - SIR DRAGONET ($36) - I think he might be more of a CC/CP type but those types have run well in this before (think Johannes Vermeer). Think he is the most untapped of the 4yos and has a nice SP profile back in the UK.
4 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($22) - Had a Cup weight last year and went to the CP. Now actually in CP form and they want to come here with a WFA horses weight. Almost top pick with last years weight but it will be a mighty effort for her to win with the impost she will get.
5 - TIGER MOTH ($160) - Almost the pick of the 3yos but can only have him at #5 given I've heard zero about him coming.
6 - PRINCE OF ARRAN ($65) - Modern day Red Cadeaux in that he is dogshit back home but grows a leg out here. Will run well again if he comes.
7 - COLETTE ($95) - Only gets in the list as she was dominant in AJC Oaks and hasn't run yet to show the form is rubbish (it probably is).
8 - DASHING WILLOUGHBY ($42) - Definitely coming but has that crappy profile of winning early season in the UK then looking a plodder once the big boys come out. That profile ususally doesn't stack up.
9 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT ($11) - some of the biggest poi poi you will ever see in every antepost market. Scrapes into top 10 but will be quick to dump him out if he fails first up. Remindes me of the year Puissance De Lune was fave for everything and was quickly found out.
10 - FINCHE ($40) - can't win as we saw with two golden opportunities last year but honest as the day is long and could go top 5 in both.
 
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