Racing Melbourne Cup 2020

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iluvparis

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PARIS POWER RANKINGS - BLUE WAVE

Every chance we see an Irish 1-2-3 next week the way things are heading

1 - TIGER MOTH (LW #1, $6.4) - Probably less classy than his stablemates but looks absolutely thrown in at the weights - remains the one to beat.
2 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #6, $8.6) - Utterly dominant in winning truly run Cox Plate from back in the field. Looks like he needs it wet and a genuine tempo to show his best but if he gets that at Flem can do an historic double.
3 - ANTHONY VAN DYCK (LW 2, $2) - Biggest certainty beat in a CC since Veandercross. Carrying the weight at Flemington plus the two miles the obvious query but with a nice draw can make his own luck up on the pace.
4 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #3, $13.5) - hard to see her holding off AVD at Flemington with the penalty and if they both get fair runs. Add to that Sir D now might loom as a big threat as a get-back wet tracker. Still races erratically which could cost her to a greater degree over the two miles.
5 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #4, $12.50) - Another superb Cup trial from this bloke in the Cox Plate and now heads to the Melbourne Cup which has always been massively on his radar. If he was trained by Lloyd he'd probably be well into single figures. Can WIN!
6 - SURPRISE BABY (LW #5, Betfair $11) - Steel Prince's b*tch continues to tumble in the rankings as more and more proven WFA performers show they are in form and heading there. Getting to the stage where it needs too many to run below par to win.
7 - FINCHE (LW #7, $24) - Raced wide, loomed as the winner, failed to place in Caulfield Cup. Will do the same at Flemington. If you put win money on this horse at Caulfield or do so at Flemington you are a dead set moron.
8 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #8, $13) - Have never seen bigger poi poi in the history of the race than this bloke at $15, let alone the $13 he is now. Great run at Caulfield but see Finche for those considering a win bet. You should be emptying your entire betfair account laying this guy at current prices.
9 - STEEL PRINCE (LW u/r, $38) - Nice Geelong Cup win sees him into the field. Has beaten Surprise Baby before with a Cup spot on the line. Can run a nice top 10 again but not good enough to win.
10 - LE DON DE VIE (LW u/r, $160) - Probably the run of the race in the Geelong Cup but now needs to win the Lexus to make the field.
 

iluvparis

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ILP, approximately what is the gap (best estimate) between some of these prospects? Is SB heads and shoulders above Delphi now that it's moved ahead?
Yeah the fact SB has come back and looks to be going as good as ever would suggest it is well clear on top - but that is also reflected in the current prices.
 

plays tall 1

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I’d be wary of backing Delphi at current prices; in discussion with Andrew Bensley today, Carps suggested he has more to do to get high enough in the order of entry
 
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iluvparis

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I’d be wary of backing Delphi at current prices; in discussion with Andrew Bensley today, Carps suggested he has more to do to get high enough in the order of entry
A good St Leger run will improve his rating - I'd be staggered if he didn't get in on his current rating anyway. He will make the field if he wants to - zero doubt. 3yos haven't even gone close to missing out in recent years
 

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Jugada

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If you're backing Delphi in the Melbourne Cup, and you should be, then I would also be taking him in the CC and Cups doubles. Caulfield will suit him to a tee up on the pace
 

plays tall 1

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A good St Leger run will improve his rating - I'd be staggered if he didn't get in on his current rating anyway. He will make the field if he wants to - zero doubt. 3yos haven't even gone close to missing out in recent years
Weights are out tomorrow. So any increase in his rating on the weekend will be of no consequence to the OOE. Additional prizemoney will see him move up the OOE. A win may result in him being given extra weight, which will see him move up the OOE.

His best result so far is a win over Master of Reality who carried 11 pounds more. He beat it by a short head. Master of Reality’s rating has slumped this year.

Plenty of NH 3yos have missed out: Hunting Horn, Norway, Guiseppe Garibaldi and Nelson to name a few in recent times.

If he does make the Cup field, he’ll certainly meet Master of Reality worse at the weights.
 
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iluvparis

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Weights are out tomorrow. So any increase in his rating on the weekend will be of no consequence to the OOE. Additional prizemoney will see him move up the OOE. A win may result in him being given extra weight, which will see him move up the OOE.

His best result so far is a win over Master of Reality who carried 11 pounds more. He beat it by a short head. Master of Reality’s rating has slumped this year.

Plenty of NH 3yos have missed out: Hunting Horn, Norway, Guiseppe Garibaldi and Nelson to name a few in recent times.

If he does make the Cup field, he’ll certainly meet Master of Reality worse at the weights.
I'm not sure what any of those 4 horses mentioned have to do with trying to get in the Melbourne Cup as a 3yo. They certainly didn't attempt to in any way shape or form. But if you can come up with an actual NH 3yo that didn't get into the race when it wanted to I am happy to listen - I don't think such a thing exists.

Look you might not think Delphi is good enough on form but he is a 100% lock to make the field if he wants to line up.

And MOR's rating has 'plummeted' a whole 5 pounds from the completely false rating he got by running a place in last years Gold Cup. His ability has unchanged - its just that artificial ratings boost that has washed through the system.
 

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I'm not sure what any of those 4 horses mentioned have to do with trying to get in the Melbourne Cup as a 3yo. They certainly didn't attempt to in any way shape or form. But if you can come up with an actual NH 3yo that didn't get into the race when it wanted to I am happy to listen - I don't think such a thing exists.

Look you might not think Delphi is good enough on form but he is a 100% lock to make the field if he wants to line up.

And MOR's rating has 'plummeted' a whole 5 pounds from the completely false rating he got by running a place in last years Gold Cup. His ability has unchanged - its just that artificial ratings boost that has washed through the system.
Nelson, Guiseppe Garibaldi and Hunting Horn were all nom’d for the 2018 Melbourne Cup. All were born in 2015. They were Northern Hemisphere 3 year olds at that time but considered 4 in Australia. All were given 50kgs at the release of weights.

Norway was nom’d for the 2019 Melbourne Cup. He was born in 2016. He was given 50kgs. He later won the Kilternan Stakes so may have been re-handicapped but the point is about weight issued at the outset.

Delphi was born in 2017, he’s nominated for the 2020 Cup. That means he’s an NH 3yo like the 4 mentioned above. So he’s in exactly the same situation as them.

I’m not suggesting Delphi’s hopeless. I’m suggesting he’s big unders currently especially if the Chief Handicapper reckons he’ll need to win a race to get in.
 

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If ‘they’ are on the money (no pun intended) Delphi will have around 51.5kg and be sitting somewhere around 30. We’ll soon see.
 

iluvparis

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Nelson, Guiseppe Garibaldi and Hunting Horn were all nom’d for the 2018 Melbourne Cup. All were born in 2015. They were Northern Hemisphere 3 year olds at that time but considered 4 in Australia. All were given 50kgs at the release of weights.

Norway was nom’d for the 2019 Melbourne Cup. He was born in 2016. He was given 50kgs. He later won the Kilternan Stakes so may have been re-handicapped but the point is about weight issued at the outset.

Delphi was born in 2017, he’s nominated for the 2020 Cup. That means he’s an NH 3yo like the 4 mentioned above. So he’s in exactly the same situation as them.

I’m not suggesting Delphi’s hopeless. I’m suggesting he’s big unders currently especially if the Chief Handicapper reckons he’ll need to win a race to get in.
That's great that they were nominated but as I have said repeatedly at no stage did they actually make any attempt to enter the race. They didn't even come to Australia FFS!

As I have stated multiple times - no NH 3yo that has wanted to actually make the race has ever missed out. Delphi will be the same and he will not have to win a race to make the field.

His form might not be up to it but he is not going to be a bad bet because he won't make the field. He will.
 

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That's great that they were nominated but as I have said repeatedly at no stage did they actually make any attempt to enter the race. They didn't even come to Australia FFS!

As I have stated multiple times - no NH 3yo that has wanted to actually make the race has ever missed out. Delphi will be the same and he will not have to win a race to make the field.

His form might not be up to it but he is not going to be a bad bet because he won't make the field. He will.
There was no point travelling when they were allocated those weights.

Since you obviously know Aiden’s intended travel plans for nominated horses, why don’t you tell us which of his horses nominated for the Cup this year will “actually make an attempt to make the race this year”?

Later today we’ll find out if you were right on Delphi’s weight (and Carps and I were wrong). I agree that 51.5 would be enough for an NH 3yo in a normal year.
 

iluvparis

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There was no point travelling when they were allocated those weights.

Since you obviously know Aiden’s intended travel plans for nominated horses, why don’t you tell us which of his horses nominated for the Cup this year will “actually make an attempt to make the race this year”?

Later today we’ll find out if you were right on Delphi’s weight (and Carps and I were wrong). I agree that 51.5 would be enough for an NH 3yo in a normal year.
That seems a cheap cop out given they went and ran in Arcs instead. Did you ask their trainers personally if the Melbourne Cup was there main aim and they just didn't come because they didn't get enough weight?

I don't know his travel plans at all. All I know is that every NH 3yo that has come to Australia to make the race has got in...easily. Delphi will be no different.

Happy to take you on in a prop bet and say that if he is a final acceptor he will make the field. As every NH 3yo has in the past.
 

iluvparis

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And to clear up a bit of further miss-information from plays tall - its irrelevant that the weights are out today and the St Leger is on the weekend - you can still be penalised for your performances in both the English and Irish St Leger.

So in the highly unlikely event he is so far down the pecking order after weights are released today - he can improve his position on the weekend :thumbsu:
 

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plays tall 1

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That seems a cheap cop out given they went and ran in Arcs instead. Did you ask their trainers personally if the Melbourne Cup was there main aim and they just didn't come because they didn't get enough weight?

I don't know his travel plans at all. All I know is that every NH 3yo that has come to Australia to make the race has got in...easily. Delphi will be no different.

Happy to take you on in a prop bet and say that if he is a final acceptor he will make the field. As every NH 3yo has in the past.
Yeah right, Aidan had them pegged as Arc types, they were too good for the Cup. Aidan often runs second stringers in the Arc and uses them for tactical reasons.

Happy with a bet on the basis of getting in at allocated weights because that’s what we’re discussing. If Delphi gets in because he’s re-handicapped after winning a race then the bet’s off.
 

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And to clear up a bit of further miss-information from plays tall - its irrelevant that the weights are out today and the St Leger is on the weekend - you can still be penalised for your performances in both the English and Irish St Leger.

So in the highly unlikely event he is so far down the pecking order after weights are released today - he can improve his position on the weekend :thumbsu:
No, you’re wrong again Paris. If he wins he can be penalised, but not otherwise. And I did say earlier that he can be re-handicapped for wins.

Any prizemoney he earns is relevant though, in sorting out horses on the same deviation from benchmark weight in the OOE.

You need to read the race conditions.
 

iluvparis

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No, you’re wrong again Paris. If he wins he can be penalised, but not otherwise. And I did say earlier that he can be re-handicapped for wins.

Any prizemoney he earns is relevant though, in sorting out horses on the same deviation from benchmark weight in the OOE.

You need to read the race conditions.
Just trying to make it clear to people that he can actually get a penalty on the weekend - you were making it sound like he was locked in today and his weekend performance was irrelevant - which is not correct.

And as for those random 3yos you mentioned that were never coming anyway - it would be like claiming that a horse like ENGLISH KING doesn't come this year because it got too much weight.

You need to recognise there are tons of horses nominated each year that have no intention of ever coming - like those whole host of examples you provided.

As stated multiple times with no contradictory evidence - no 3yo who has arrived on these shores and wanted to race has ever been balloted out of the race.
 

iluvparis

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AVD won't come which will most likely leave V&D as one of the all time worst top weights.

V&E up 3 kegs should rule her out as a winning chance too.

Plenty of chaff bandits between that and Surprise Baby - could easily see him starting as short as $4 on the day.

Semi interesting one is Mirage Dancer dropping 1kg despite running 3rd at Caulfield last year - unlike the Turk he hasn't gone completely terrible since then but might be more of a horse for Caulfield than here.
 

iluvparis

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Not that she would even make it around but ARCADIA QUEEN would be absolutely thrown in at her best with only 53. 0.5kg less than Levendi!?! Greg plz!
 

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