Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

Who wins the cup?

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Hi Everyone,

Long time lurker on this board over the last few years but have never contributed anything 'til now. Just my notes from this years race so far, one week out. I love the MC, far and away my favourite race to bet on every year. My main play is the First 4 with the massive pools. This is all just personal opinion and I am no pro. Have landed 3 first 4's and 1 trifecta in last 20 years or so. Usually outlay about $400 on first 4 bet for around 30 - 40% depending on how many horses I put in. Like to keep it around 33% as a guide. Haven't done tri's for over 10 years. Good luck and happy punting.

Very Elleegant - No. Likes to run on the outside of horses and will need to do this for 3200m (3/4 wide, 6/8 wide into the bend) . See her best on Soft rather than firm. Still a question about getting it to settle although has Mark Z. on who did wonderfully at this last time. Breeding? Happy to leave out. Not having 100,000 screaming people probably helps.

Sir Dragonet - Will settle back in field and looking for gaps. long straight a plus. Will not like the firm ground that Flemington can produce, always here a few jockeys after the race say didn't appreciate the track. Can it run 3200m? G. Boss seems to think so after pulling up superbly after Cox Plate, drops 3.5kg. Leaving out due to ground and less so distance. Stable on fire!!!! Have to respect old mate G. Boss's call on the horses at the moment after Everest call. Didn't blow out a candle at end of Cox Plate and has the elusive turn of foot at end of a run, but will it be there on a firm track and after 2 miles.

Oceanex - Another one who wants it wet. Finally out to its trip where usually finds its best, running unsuitable distances up till now. Hasn’t had to do any extra work to get into race, just been running around for fitness and metres in the legs. 51.5kg, big plus. What barrier does it draw, as likes to find front to first 1/2 of field, will burn up heaps if drawn wide and that will be her done, or does it get the soft run and have a crack late, should be able to run it out.

Anthony Van Dyck - Top weight is huge, great horse but surely no. Hartnell / Criterion / American and more all placed with weight. Doesn’t mind firm track. Is a Galileo. Great run in Caulfield from back and wide, just missed. A. O’Brien wants this race badly, so does jockey, big plus for mine. Tough Epson Derby winner. Stallion. Really wish a I had the balls to leave this out of my Top 4 because history will say the top weights only make a good go of the trip about 25% of the time. Will include in bottom half of first 4.

Vow and Declare - No, just not running as well, up in weight and jockey jumps off. Can run 3200m. Connections running to have a MC runner. Just can’t have, leaving out. Was in top form before last years edition, this year no.

Avilius - CC run was huge and nice to see him back in form. Running as good as ever. Couldn’t run it out last time but questions about wether horse falling in front last time did affect him. Had 2600m to catch up and couldn’t. Weight too much this year and can it run 3200. Settles back in field, will need gas in the straight. too many questions to have, if it runs top 4 happy to lose on Avilius knocking me out.

Russian Camelot - Can it settle in a big field surrounded by horses??? me say no. Likes it wide and pace on, gathering momentum. Bit like VE. Boom horse for a few weeks. Feel Cox Plate was always its GF for breeding purposes. This just an extra throw at stumps. 3YO NH big plus. Trainer knows what he is doing. Stallion. PB ratings dropped each time last 4 races. Looking for the trip?? Doesn’t matter which barrier as it will likely go back as change of tactics saving it for one last sustained run. Will have to go around from the 800m 6 wide, 7 wide, more or will try and go up the fence with luck, not sure the horse will like this. Would prob like sting out of track as well. Leaving out

Master of Reality - Finished 2nd last year, demoted too 4th after protest, up .5kg in weight. Laid in on straight at end of brutal run up front, took lead at 600m mark and didn't stop, typical Dettori ride. Will it have Twilight Payment as a pace maker again this year? probably. Williams top jock (Melham) goes on, same indicator as last year when Dettori jumped on. No respect shown by the market or by the general public this year. Why???? Because it hasn’t run in Aus, the weight, just not a peoples horse? What barrier will it get, probably doesn't matter. Will include

Twilight Payment - Ratings say it running better now than same time last year. O’Brien has had 12 months to train horse not 2 months before race last year. Last year used as a pace maker for Llyod runners, who will be used this year? Gate? up .5kg. Likes a firm track got soft last year. Barrier 19 last year, burnt a lot of fuel crossing over to front and was then only beaten 3.8 lengths. Will include 4th

Tiger Moth - THE NH 3YO. No 3YO has carried 52.5kg to win. Most intriguing horse of the race. Going on stats last few years it has to go in everything just in case it is a freak. Likes a firm track. Can settle in first 1/2 field. Not having 100,000 screaming people probably helps. Galileo never won. Trainer desperate to win, THE jockey. tick, tick ,tick….. BOOM?

Mustajeer - No, not up to it. If it runs in first 4 I will be dumbfounded. Out of form, same weight as last year. biggest run since 5th in Sydney Cup on Heavy 8.

Stratum Albion - A plodder, will not have the turn of foot to win, Seems to like Good / Firm tracks. W. Mullins hurdler special, shaking my head. Is out of a Galileo through its mum…. What Barrier?? will it want to get to the front and keep rolling. Too much to do, no turn off foot if it has to go all the way back to the rear or has to cross from barrier 19+ to the lead and keep going. If it draws a nice barrier will include for 4th.

Prince of Arran - up .5kg on LY. This horse loves Aust. Will go close again. JAIMIE KAH!! CC run impressive from back / wide from bad barrier. Got a Soft 5 (doesn’t like as much) last year and still run a belter. Although had every chance in run and no excuses. Goes in everything. Red Cadaeux lost one by a nose on a bob of the head one year in his big three runs. Maybe this is the year POA has his biggest one. Rating as a good as ever. Little bit of story in this one with jockey jumping off, Kah on. Everyone loves the trainers attitude and the horse goes alright. Fairytale stuff.

Warning - Horse loves Flemington, ticking along nicely without doing anything really. Can it get the trip, probably not? Last run just pulled back to last and was winding up in straight. Had a practice run at this 12 months ago in 2500m race and ticked a lot of boxes. Freedman / Currie?? What gate does it get. Has it just been running around trying to avoid a penalty? Been watching closely all spring as a top 4 hope but it shouldn’t really go in should it. I think I emotionally rate this horse better than it actually is. Meets RC .5kg better than SA run, that means nothing.

Surprise Baby - Up 1kg on LY!!!! ouch, but that run is hard to get out of your head. In 2019 run around the whole field finishing less than a length off winner. Whilst Il Paradiso (who should of won) runs 10m shorter trip up the fence from a similar starting position at the 600m mark. Sire: Shocking, Could argue that it prefers running on top of the ground and struck soft ground last year and still run out of its skin. Yes, yes, yes, goes in everything!!!. does it draw a barrier this year??? C. Williams lost hunger to win one after last year. This horse is only set for one race and one race only. Nothing else comes into calculations. Does Preusker know what he is doing? Can he train a MC winner?

Dashing Willoughby - Won a couple of races at the start if the season but wasn’t carrying much weight compared to what some of these NH horses do and didn’t beat much, just writing off Cross Counter by saying that. What was that run in the Caulfield Cup?? What must M. Walker been thinking about 400m out as he saw POA running out wide. Doesn’t mind the firm track and will run the trip but didn’t really rate it before it got to Aust. and surely will be leaving it out of everything.

Finche - Up .5kg on LY. Loves running 3WNC the whole trip. Will it happen again, more than likely. It is not rating quite as well leading up to this race as the last last two years?? This horse is only really set for one race every year. Trainer desperately wants to win one and has got every little drop out of this horse. I would love to own this horse as it gives everything and is so consistent. Got one of the runs of the races last year 3 back the fence then popped out at the perfect time, had every chance. Will finish 4 - 10 with even luck. Will leave out.

Etah James - If it is a heavy track then include in end of first 4’s but other than that, no. Got the magical golden ticket 4th in Moonee Valley Cup on Soft 7. Trainers on fire. Personal best rating in last race, although that rating is still very very low. Can run on firm ground but I think it runs best with sting out of the track. Will run the trip no worries. Last 8YO Mare to place the MC?? A bit of a WhoShotthebarman but not as good.

Miami Bound - Ticks a lot of boxes this horse. Lightly raced, carrying no weight, been running PB’s each time out, had a warm up run this time last year at this track and won easily (that was on a Good 3 as well), each time it has gone 2500m it has won. It has the right breeding to run the trip. Trainer obviously knows what he is doing. D. Moor jockey???? Stable have always held it in high regard and I have been watching it closely waiting for its big run. It came in MV Cup, I wasn't on. MV Cup winners have not had the best record at MC’s though. It will run even better if it was soft. Initially wrote this one off, but its one that could go bottom of multiples just in case it turns up.

The Chose One - Really like the way this horse is going. Seems to run better when it is in the first half of the field, see which barrier it gets. Stallion. Run a new PB in Caulfield Cup. Can run on a firm track. Will run the trip and is bit of a fighter. Blinkers went on for the CC, did this help? Didn’t run well here last year, they took the blinkers off for this race first time last year, did this hurt? Last year Barrier 18 went to last and ended 4WWC 800 out and made up ground but too far back. In better from this year heading into same race. Interesting one.

Steel Prince - Up 1kg on LY. Didn’t settle well last year in the run first 1000m, no crowd to help?? Got barrier 16 LY and was 3 WWC for most of the trip If I like Surprise Baby then I have to like Steel Prince, but I don't as much, just emotions I guess. It has had 1 Extra run than last year after being scratched from the barriers can’t remember the race. Racing a lot better than last year but is this negated by the extra kilo in weight and it finishes a good top 10 again. Super rating, and career best in Geelong Cup against inferior overseas hoses?? juries out. Pike on, another fairytale in this one if it does the impossible. Will get thrip and likes firm ground. Likes Flemington. Will include in bottom half of first 4. Will probably run 8th.

King of Leogrance - This is classic Lloyd. Does like to drift to the back so will need to find a bit (and luck) coming down the Flemington straight at end of 3200m. Won the Adelaide Cup (who cares), so will run the trip but surely not the right form for this. Would have said the same thing about the Queensland Derby or whatever it was that VAD won last year. Coming off a huge PB out of the Geelong Cup, where did that come from. Who is the jockey?? Trainer is a tick. Currently $61 and drifting. Likes a firm track and doesn’t mind Flemington. Will leave out of everything and it will lob for 4th after I nab 1,2 and 3 costing me the lot.

True Self - Running well below its best last 4 runs. Was last year its year. 8YO Mare, pretty easy to leave out. Doesn’t mind it firm and can run at Flemington.

Lexus / Hotham Winner - Wait and see but usually have too include in bottom of first 4's due to history, but this is getting rarer and rarer these days. Not too sure about this bunch. Biggest standout? Not sure....

Cheers guys
 
Anyone noticed the UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE weight drop Russian Camelot has coming back from the Cox Plate - haven't seen much chat about what looks a big positive for him.
 
Play nice please

People are allowed to have there own opinions.
No need for name calling or belittling or people’s opinions.

I have no problems with debates that are just debates.
 

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Hey Scratchy,

Did read your post earlier. Not sure where it has gone but all good. Yep did leave out Persan, was just a mistake.

Persan - Looks pretty good running against donkeys, the breeding? (pierro). Trainers on fire!!!! loves it firm or wet. Has been carrying weight for awhile and toughs it out every time. Loves Flemington. Stallion!!! Won Bart Cummings and can’t be re handicapped, nice move.

Extra notes -

- I have counted 10 runners in this MC that have run prior, including 8? from last year. I can't remember more horses running in the race that have previously run in it before. Interesting?? Is that because it was such a closely run race last year and trailers / owners believe with better luck on running they could have been the ones to win it?

- About 5 horses out of Camelot and one or two out of Galileo (just a guess here, is it more?) and neither of these Sires have ever one a MC. Yet no Monsun, Monjeau, High Chaperalls. Not totally up to speed as to why this is the case but yeah interesting.

- Surely Dashing Willoughby doesn't run

- My First 4 as of 10pm tonight, and this will chop and change but will try and keep % about the same (30-40%) is as follows:

1st
Suprise Baby, Tigermoth (2)

2nd
Suprise Baby, Tigermoth, Prince of Arran, Master of Reality, Anthony Van Dyck (5)

3rd
Suprise Baby, Tigermoth, Prince of Arran, Master of Reality, Anthony Van Dyck, Twilight Payment, Miami Bound, King of Leogrance, Stratum Albion, Persan, The Chosen One, Steel Prince, Oceanex (13)

4th
Suprise Baby, Tigermoth, Prince of Arran, Master of Reality, Anthony Van Dyck, Twilight Payment, Miami Bound, King of Leogrance, Stratum Albion, Persan, The Chosen One, Steel Prince, Oceanex, Warning, Etah James (15)

$400 gets me 30% at the moment - those horses in bold are my locks, those not bold can be shuffled around. Its always hard do you want 20% of something or 40% of nothing. I usually try and keep the % high and curse myself when I'm one or two out of order. But those bigger collects are definitely worth the pain.

Might move POA up to first, never in a million years would I have ever thought of doing that but the firm track and Kah factors is just too much. I don't think an 8 year old has ever won a Melbourne Cup. Will blow out my % so will probably just leave as is.

Might move MB and KOL down and totally out of the first 4, just put KOL tonight in after seeing how it peaks up at its 3rd run last 3 preps and its Ratings just keep going skyward every race.

Same with Oceanex loses its 3rd and moves to 4th, Then Warning and Etah James will probably come out. happier to scratch Etah James. Hope some of this makes sense. And we are still a week away.

And then there is Russian Camelot. Really want to hold my ground here and not include him, but he does remind men a lot of a So You Think who won the Cox by memory and then third in a MC just giving out at the end. Do I give in when marking the ticket at the TAB and put him in for forth. not sure.... probably leave him out.

Cheers
 
My early thoughts for how I'm going to play exotics is to go as skinny as possible

1st: Tiger Moth/Baby/AVD/Dragon
2nd: Same
3rd: + Finche/Stratum
4th: + MoR/Twilight Payment

That's about as wide as I would want to go and I'll be taking a lot bigger percentages on the narrower exotics with those up the top. Actually finding it very hard to find a roughie or two to fill it out. Can't go too wrong with Lloyd though and Stratum seems very much like a Simenon type who could bob up if we get a road, which this far out looks a possibility.
 
Jugada said:
My early thoughts for how I'm going to play exotics is to go as skinny as possible

1st: Tiger Moth/Baby/AVD/Dragon
2nd: Same
3rd: + Finche/Stratum
4th: + MoR/Twilight Payment

That's about as wide as I would want to go and I'll be taking a lot bigger percentages on the narrower exotics with those up the top. Actually finding it very hard to find a roughie or two to fill it out. Can't go too wrong with Lloyd though and Stratum seems very much like a Simenon type who could bob up if we get a road, which this far out looks a possibility.
Click to expand...

Yup normally there are one or two roughies I like but as has been discussed for a while now I really don’t like anything apart from the top 6 in the market.

Leaving POA out at utter poi poi the obvious.

Like the Cox plate I’ll probably just take the raiders on the win line and leave the locals on the B line. Then just throw in whichever raider is stupid overs on the C line with the two nonnys (Finche and poa)
 
Scratchy05 said:
Yeah tbh, I don't mind Warning but don't think he is quite good enough.
Click to expand...
I think he's way overs at 30's.
I've got Doubts in a few in the market running the 2 miles (AVD, VE, RC & SD)
VE: Needs it wet
RC: think he's a good horse but just a good horse nothing more.
SD: Poorly weighted...his 4th in the St.Leger over 2900 gave no impression he'd go the 3200m.
Surprise Baby..will do what Surprise baby does...run on again.
 
If you know they can run 2 miles they are too slow - especially the Europeans - love people opposing SD on his St Leger run - that's just what you want to see to get his price out.

Why is Warning such a cert to stay it?

He is unders at 30 because he keeps getting beaten by the average horses let alone the good ones. Not sure on what basis he can beat RC home
 

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This will be the best Melbourne Cup run without crowds. Seriously it is the strongest Cup field for a long time may since 2004 when Maybe Diva beat Vinnie Row.

We have a lot of class including
Very Elleegant 6 Group 1s
AVD English Derby Winner
Sir Dragonet Cox Plate
Vow and Declare MC winner
POA twice placed in MC
Russian Camelot 2 Group 1
Warning and Miami Bound Derby and oaks winners
Surprise Baby highly rated stayer
plus a number of other highly rated internationals. Non better than Tiger Moth who is touted as the best stayer Aiden O'Brien has ever brought to Australia.

We have already seen the tigers win this years AFL cup. I think we are about to see another Tiger take the cup but unlike Dusty with 3 medals McEvoy will get his 4th cup.
 
That would suck for connections. One of the few runners for the little guys.

Spent 6 months probably hoping for once in a life time starter in a MC and falls over at last minute.
 
Regarding Sir Dragonet, I think the concern over a good track has been overplayed. On good to firm going he was beaten 0.75 of a length in Epsom Derby (ran 5th to AVD) and by 3.25 lengths in the St Leger (ran 4th behind Logician with Il Paradiso 2 lengths further back behind Sir Dragonet). Relatively small margins in elite NH Group 1 3yo company.

As far as the distance query theory, I don’t buy it given Il Paradiso’s run last year and the fact that Rekindling was beaten 2 lengths in the St Leger by Capri.

On breeding he appears far more likely to get 2 miles than AVD. And he gets 3kgs off him.
 
plays tall 1 said:
Regarding Sir Dragonet, I think the concern over a good track has been overplayed. On good to firm going he was beaten 0.75 of a length in Epsom Derby (ran 5th to AVD) and by 3.25 lengths in the St Leger (ran 4th behind Logician with Il Paradiso 2 lengths further back behind Sir Dragonet). Relatively small margins in elite NH Group 1 3yo company.

As far as the distance query theory, I don’t buy it given Il Paradiso’s run last year and the fact that Rekindling was beaten 2 lengths in the St Leger by Capri.

On breeding he appears far more likely to get 2 miles than AVD. And he gets 3kgs off him.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with this and something that is being completely misread - he doesn't need a wet track - what he DOES need is a strong tempo.

Hopefully just means we get a ludicrously good price if the track is dry.
 
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